利用大数据确定客研方向——禾略数字化客研心得&产品分享

<section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><br /></span></section><section class="channels_iframe_wrp"><mpvideosnap class="js_uneditable custom_select_card channels_iframe" data-pluginname="videosnap" data-id="export/UzFfAgtgekIEAQAAAAAA7-IQwsWZNAAAAAstQy6ubaLX4KHWvLEZgBPExYJwXh49Grr9zNPgMIurP7Nq-Pa5j-9LW1NUqg1D" data-url="https://findermp.video.qq.com/251/20304/stodownload?encfilekey=rjD5jyTuFrIpZ2ibE8T7Ym3K77SEULgkiaC6l2glXWFgHRbxCPkqO69xaiaP4AWMQbubOfAhrJcjeLS71BcEpLGVTkkelkX4iaK1v6VI63NBmu8xibTrv2bat4Q&amp;adaptivelytrans=0&amp;bizid=1023&amp;dotrans=0&amp;hy=SZ&amp;idx=1&amp;m=&amp;scene=0&amp;token=AxricY7RBHdWuLhnU54QFW8Cdz4rwx1rHwFlfdDrI5iatSRE49m5F9ygIRGPrsj16KVGk1MER97so" data-headimgurl="http://wx.qlogo.cn/finderhead/WAibKjHvK5nH8vQfZJqhgU8iaf6rKibyr5AaK8a0uDtYWDlGuhQ8LIhPg/0" data-username="v2_060000231003b20faec8c4e18d10cbd6c80dee34b07736396e416723fd5650a5715e7448b841@finder" data-nickname="禾略" data-desc="数字化客研应该怎么理解和应用？禾略逼逼赖赖的胖子给出了自己的答案" data-nonceid="553384302616303205" data-type="video"></mpvideosnap></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">视频版，以下为文字内容，各位同学可以按需食用</span></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: center;"><br /></span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">///</span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">随着万科再次吹响节衣缩食、准备过冬的号角，“降低不必要支出”似乎成为地产行业的“新赛道”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对于客研来说，过去“豪掷千金“购买整案服务的工作方式可能已经成为历史，有效降低客研成本，提升客研效率，成为每一个客研人不得不思考的问题，通过数据驱动客研工作，也成为大家普遍探索的全新工作方式。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">关于数据和客研的关系，我这里提出两个观点：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;">1、数据并不能完全替代现有客研工作，其主要目标是降低试错成本：</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过数据驱动客研的工作模式，包含两个世界，即“数据世界“和”现实世界“。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">数据世界</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以看作是对以往现实世界的部分总结（请注意这里是部分总结，在区块链技术还不成熟的今天，任何的数据源都带有其特有视角），现实世界才是客研真正需要触达的意义，要去了解真实世界中的客户是谁，有多少钱，喜欢什么，目前处于什么状态。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">数据世界可以在宏观层面上，给客研工作的制定，提供一定的指导意义，从而避免在制定客研方案时，找不到正确的方向。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">例如我们做一个总价100-200万楼盘的客研时，首先要确定全市范围内，拥有这个支付力区间的客户分布在哪里，从而才能进一步制定客研方向，假如对应的支付力客群就在楼盘周边，那么客研方向，就可以考虑如何满足附近客户的置换需求，假如对应的支付力客群离楼盘很远，那客研方向就要考虑在满足什么样条件的情况下，可以让那些客户跨区域置换。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但是在确定客研方向以后，还是需要通过线下的实际调研、深访等传统客研工作，来得出最终的客研结论。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;">2、数据要拆开来看，“大数“、”小数“要结合使用</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">客研过程中其实有两类数据，一类是反应宏观群体的“大数“，例如一定范围内的年龄结构、收入结构、工作结构、APP偏好等；另一类是基于客户个体的”小数“，主要指的是历次客研过程中对客户的调研、深访、来访、成交数据。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果说”大数“解决数据世界的温饱问题，那么”小数“则在帮助数据世界“奔小康”，其主要作用是通过“真实世界“的数据化，不断修正”数据世界“，一方面提升其精准度，另一方面补充应用维度。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">举个栗子，我们通过“大数“大致确定可以购买”100-200万“房子的客户分布在哪些区域，但这毕竟是推算出来的，如果我们不断将历次调研客户、来访客户、成交客户的数据录入到系统当中，我们就可以利用不同的数据组，得出来精准度不同的客户区域分布图，从而确定客研层级。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">（先做成交客户数据热区、再做调研客户数据热区、最后做大数据推算客户热区，如果出现三区交汇，那这个区域就直接盘他！）</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同时，对于大数无法触及的部分，例如首付比例/金额、月供比例/金额、各区域对于客户置业的吸引力、客户的精装偏好等维度，就可以通过利用”小数“确定客研方向。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">假如说，在过去的10次客研数据中，90%都选择了毛坯房，那么是否就不要抠脑壳去思考精装方案。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;">现在大多数开发商都没有注重“小数“的整理，其实是一种非常大的资源浪费，从另一个角度说，只有”大数“的数据世界是共有的，有了”小数“的数据世界，才是你自己的。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">*</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略种子近期也上线了关于数字化客研的功能模块，“大数“客研和”小数“客研的功能都有所体现，今天我们主要看一下如何利用”大数“，确定大致的客研方向。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">Step.1&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们进入禾略种子“客户洞察“模块的”总价-客户分布“功能，可以看到一个可操作的地图：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5043341213553979" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyxdX4IOexM1icKZxodqFm1aEU8TL19K65ZJ7Gq0guugo3TaHWKq0EIeg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">Step.2&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">输入产品预期总价，点击确定，查看该价格区间全市购买力热区（可切换上方计算方式，获得不同的购买力热区）</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5043341213553979" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyIvk9tThrK9kb6EPmLL4opBB4sW2hZ0tIMIodN9uE3bjZzPwFt5EzSg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">Step.3&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">选择项目所在地块为目标地块，并输入项目预期辐射半径，选择后，右边可以查看项目所在地市场周期及价格分位线</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">*</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>分位线的意义</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">：分位线主要为制定房源总价提供参考，一般低于60分位线的总价为低；60-80分为主安全区间；80-90分为高端产品安全区间；90-100分为高风险区间；由于计算分位线时，主要依据二手房源，在参考新房定价时，可适当进行浮动</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5043341213553979" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyAJ3TBgBe1kcE7UrsC1Lh8FLcjKVhJWqZFtOP3fuBTx5ibO27UGF39Hg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">Step.4&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">点击上方人口规模、配套莫兰分布、消费能力可以查看地块的各项信息；其中可以通过配套莫兰中典型配套（KTV、酒吧、花鸟鱼虫市场等），来分析周边居民消费偏好</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5043341213553979" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyib56vSdqFkicaGGfwB9DcgxUBjiaTP0Ib65ELqsGcL9HYkYHuMTJBYVjg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">Step.5&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">点击地图选择对标地块，进行两个范围的数据对比，主要有两个作用，一个是进行两个地块的优劣比较，另一个是圈定客研群体范围，制定客研方向。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">假如我们设定如下图所示对标地块——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5043341213553979" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyH4k8ibK1cicMFh3fMNIkrXvic6E0bazNkgtGMcZRj79vpOibcFgSvafSPQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以得到如下初步结论：</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">从总价区间来看，150-200万的套总价，在目标地块（后简称地块A）处于70-90分价格区间，在对标地块（后简称地块B）处于40-80分价格区间；如果希望地块B的客户到地块A来买房，则主要客户群体锁定在刚改、再改客户群体，在客研时要充分挖掘这两部分群体住房需求</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">在150-200万的套总价范围内，A地块的客户比例明显高于B地块，将主要客户锁定在项目周边是一个不错的选择</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">两个地块的市场周期均处于向上冲高阶段，通过市场周期预测可以看到（点击市场周期详情），地块A将率先进入回落阶段，地块B将持续向上冲高</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.49046153846153845" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyibslr5zlHkH1Jwibmib7NmvqeTSJaQcXLA2Vv8bw3bjejmw5DlEFar6dw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1625" style="" /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">从人口规模来看，地块A高于地块B</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4041958041958042" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyrics2VdMPwJKjfu8LaKDZ2W6uEiaXmiaPjSUwTgtQUZJwjdibdKeKZN5Dw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="715" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">从配套上来看，地块B酒吧明显多于地块A，说明地块B范围内客户一定程度上具有年轻化、时尚、爱玩等特点；其他配套无明显差别</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">地块A公司主要以20-99人民营企业为主，产业类型主要是科技、教育、租赁类，地块B主要以20-99人民营企业为主，产业类型主要是金融、科技、租赁；地块B平均月薪高于地块A</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.19361147327249023" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6mDo1rEdoPicvDrCLicSkAQyVzV9rD74Ct9LxY6uDA9MuwOMHicxF1b48hibibyjxTdQ6vJ20hOtSicP6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1534" style="" /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">Step.6&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过不断变换对标地块，获得更多对比信息，从而进一步确定合适的地块及合适的群体。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">*</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过对于“大数”的运用，我们可以快速确定一些基本的客研方向，降低客研试错成本，从而实现客研工作“降本增效”的目的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">其中数据可能会存在一些偏差，原因就是这个产品里面，主要是对“大数”的运用，如果可以将“小数”不断输入系统，那么将获得更加精准的结果。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">关于“小数”的应用，我们也即将上线全新的“客研地图“功能，敬请期待~</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">目前，本文演示的功能已经上线，大家可以登录自己的禾略种子账号进行查看；没有账号的朋友，也可以扫描下方二维码领取，可以免费使用至年底。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 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