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南京土拍“冰火两重天”:低密改善爆发VS国企托底困局

发布于 2025-04-23

<section style="text-align: center;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(255, 112, 0);font-weight: bold;">南京土地成交一览表(</span></span><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;section&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;text-align: center;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]"><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(255, 112, 0);font-weight: bold;">4.23日)</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 24px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.0833333333333333" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100038400" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/VXjHib6YROwkJTtrHzZSjSdNrdHHvSaar8ot1RbltmXPNPiasylNkaRwwrSB7MXpT8Nm0vap4ibLZ6tB3xEiaODkUQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.2909090909090909" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="275" type="block" data-imgfileid="100038402" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkJTtrHzZSjSdNrdHHvSaar7kPZx8QcficgX24Pkk3QHbAALDMW93ib1WndvNdPJia96ibYibvea3GQ9qg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><b><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;">一、横向对比:南京与核心一二线城市的土拍热度差异</span></span></font></span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">地价梯度对比</span>&nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">南京:</span>南部新城</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G07</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">楼面价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">32,309</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,虽创区域新高,但远低于同期杭州(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8.8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)、北京(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10.23</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)等地王水平。 &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心逻辑:</span>南京作为强二线头部城市,地价仍显著低于一线及杭州、苏州等长三角热点城市,反映出其市场估值存在</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“洼地效应”,但这也与南京近年供应放量、库存压力较大有关。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">民企参与度对比&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">南京:</span>仅雨核</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G09</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">由民企十朝春底价摘得,其余</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗地块均为国企托底; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">杭州</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">:</span></span><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">民企与国企平分秋色,如杭州滨江、中天等民企活跃拿地;</span></span><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">关键差异:</span>南京市场风险偏好较低,民企更倾向</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“外围试水</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">核心规避”,而杭州通过精准供应核心地块激发民企信心。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">二、纵向趋势:南京土拍市场结构性变化</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">容积率与产品形态迭代&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">低密化加速:</span>南部新城</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G07</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(容积率≤</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)与</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年江核地块(普遍≤</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)对比,显示南京正从“高周转刚需”转向“低密改善”主导。 &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策驱动:</span>中央</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“好房子”政策推动下,南京</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年低密宅地占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">37.5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗中</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗),而</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2022</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年仅为</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">区域价值重构&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">江核疲软:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年江核地块均底价成交,楼面价较</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2023</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年峰值(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4.3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)腰斩,反映同质化竞争与库存积压压力; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">南部新城崛起:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G07</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">溢价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.1%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,成为南京首个容积率≤</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">的“第四代住宅”标杆,填补高端改善空白。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">三、房企策略分化:风险偏好与资金链博弈</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">国企“托底常态化”&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年南京国企拿地占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">87.5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,较</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">72%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)进一步上升,浦口国资系企业连续包揽</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗地块; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">财务逻辑:</span>国企依托低成本融资(如专项债、</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">REITs</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)承接低流动性资产,但隐含财政压力。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">民企“机会主义”布局&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">十朝春首进南京选择雨核</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G09</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(楼面价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.65</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡),规避江核高地价风险,瞄准配套成熟的中端改善市场; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">对比杭州民企(如滨江)敢押注核心地块,南京民企仍以</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“低总价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">快周转”为主。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">四、政策传导效应:预期管理与实际效果</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策工具箱使用&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">短期刺激:</span>人才购房补贴、公积金新政对市场提振有限,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月土拍仍以底价成交为主; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">长期机制:</span>南京通过</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“减少供地量</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">降低容积率”调节供需,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年住宅用地供应量同比缩减</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">28%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,推动库存去化周期降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">与苏州、合肥对比&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">苏州通过</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“取消限价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">放开土拍准入”激活市场,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年地价涨幅达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;南京则维持审慎调控,地价涨幅仅</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">合肥依托</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“科技产业</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">人才导入”支撑地价,南京仍需强化产城融合(如江北新区产业落地)以提升土地溢价。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">五、未来展望:结构性机会与风险警示</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">机会维度&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">低密改善赛道:</span>南部新城、紫东等区域低密地块将持续受捧,容积率</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">≤</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">或成未来供地主流; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">TOD</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">开发:</span>雨核</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G09</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">紧邻地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线,未来“轨交</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">商业”综合体模式或成民企突破点。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">风险警示&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">国企债务隐忧:</span>浦口国资系企业年内已拿地</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗,需警惕区域财政承压与资产流动性风险; &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">江核去化困局:</span>当前江核库存去化周期达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">24</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,若持续供地或引发价格踩踏。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><b><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="text-decoration: underline;">总结</span></span></font></span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">南京土拍市场呈现</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“冰火两重天”格局:低密改善地块价值爆发与刚需板块流动性陷阱并存。相比杭州、苏州等城市,南京需在“政策弹性”(如优化限价)与“产业赋能”上寻求突破,方能释放土地价值潜力。未来关注点应聚焦于:①南部新城万象城等配套落地进度;②江北新区产业导入实效;③民企参与度能否从“点状试探”转向“规模回归”。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p><span leaf=""><br /></span></o:p></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.20353982300884957" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="452" type="block" data-imgfileid="100038403" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkJTtrHzZSjSdNrdHHvSaarAAFbpgibEs7T2QLvk7SiaIKAGGicycBfyiarcygC4Y8A3QeklYvFh61f0g/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p><span leaf="">根据微信公众号</span></o:p><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“禾略研究小院”的土拍前瞻报告与南京</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">23</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">日土拍实际成交结果对比分析,核心结论如下:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">一、核心地块预测与成交的匹配度</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">南部新城</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">G07</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">地块&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">禾略</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">预测:</span>报告中强调该地块为</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“南京首个容积率≤</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">的低密宅地”,且“南部新城住宅供需关系优化,库存持续走低”,预计将引发房企争抢。 &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">实际成交:</span>经过</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">38</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">轮竞价,溢价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.1%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,楼面价达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">32,309</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,由宸嘉</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">&amp;</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">南部新城联合竞得。预测精准吻合,其低密属性(容积率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)和稀缺性(区域唯一低密宅地)成为溢价核心驱动力。 &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">雨核</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">G09</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">地块&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">禾略</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">预测:</span>指出雨核片区</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“供需关系紧张,库存告急”,且配套加速成熟(如万象天地、省人民医院分院)。 &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">实际成交:</span>底价成交,楼面价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">16,513</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,由民企十朝春置业摘得。预测部分偏差,尽管配套完善,但房企对非核心改善地块仍持谨慎态度,可能与市场对雨核后续供应增加的预期有关。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">江北核心区地块(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">G02-G04</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">)&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">禾略</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">预测:</span>江核区域</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“楼面价超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">17,900</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,价格高地特征显著”,但需警惕同质化竞争。 &nbsp;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">实际成交:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗地块均底价成交,楼面价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">17,904-18,017</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,由本地国企包揽。预测部分验证,地价维持高位但未现溢价,反映房企对江核市场短期去化压力的担忧。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">二、市场趋势与</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">禾略</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">前瞻逻辑的印证</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">低密改善主导市场&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">南部新城</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G07</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">的激烈竞价印证了</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">禾略</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">前瞻报告中</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“低密产品稀缺性”和“第四代住宅设计溢价”的判断。当前南京改善需求集中于低容积率(≤</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)、高附加值(如生态、智能化)项目,与禾略“聚焦高端客群外溢”的定位一致。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">民企参与度回升信号&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">十朝春置业首进南京摘得雨核</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G09</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,符合</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">禾略</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">前瞻中</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“民企开始重新拿地,释放积极信号”的观察。但民企仍集中于非核心地块,显示其策略偏向风险可控的局部机会。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">区域分化加剧&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">江北桥林</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G11</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(楼面价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6,086</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)与江核</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G03</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">17,912</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)价差近</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">倍,验证</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">禾略</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">前瞻中</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“浦口价格分化显著”的结论。市场对强配套(如地铁、产业)区域的偏好持续强化,边缘板块仍需依赖政策刺激。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">三、禾略前瞻</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">未充分覆盖的风险点</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">国企托底常态化&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗地块中</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗由国企</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">城投底价摘得,反映市场实际热度低于</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">禾略</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">前瞻预期。禾略报告对</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“房企资金链压力”的讨论不足,未能预判国企主导的持续性。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策传导滞后性&nbsp;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">尽管</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">禾略前</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">瞻提到</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“人才购房补贴”“公积金新政”等利好,但政策对市场提振效果有限(如雨核</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G09</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">仍底价成交),显然需求端信心恢复仍需时间。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">四、未来市场展望</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">南部新城标杆效应:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">G07</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">地块的高溢价或推动南京改善市场进一步分化,低密、高配套项目将成为房企布局重点。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">民企策略调整:</span>十朝春等民企试水成功后,可能带动更多中小房企参与外围优质地块竞拍,但核心区仍由国企主导。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策加码预期:</span>若土拍热度持续分化,不排除南京优化限价、土地出让规则(如提高商住比弹性)以激活市场。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><b><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="text-decoration: underline;">总结</span></span></font></span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">禾略研究小院的前瞻报告精准捕捉了南京土拍的结构性机会(如低密地块稀缺性),但对市场整体流动性风险和国企托底力度预判不足。未来需结合政策动态与房企资金链变化,进一步细化区域竞争格局分析。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">相关报告链接</span></span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font 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