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参考深圳标准,上海房价还要涨46%?

发布于 2017-09-25

<p><img class="" data-ratio="0.8333333333333334" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yZPTcMGWibvvLx6F9VHHuduYRiaYhaE4bwAUYx6icr5qlsVGlZFOnJIoiaTUyMJtKB4kBwicd2uC60n6vQW4kZIRezw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="48" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 400px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: normal;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;display: inline;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: sans-serif;font-size: 14px;line-height: 26px;width: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" width="auto" />有个朋友问阿神:<strong>现在楼市没那么火了,开发商拿了地王真的能赚钱吗?</strong></p><p><br /></p><p>的确,从大宁金茂府的百亿地王开始,各种单价地王就层出不穷,基本上都是面粉贵过面包的,</p><p><br /></p><p>难道方兴的老总在决策拿下这块地的时候,想的就只是增加几个智能家装和多种几棵树,就可以实现地王的盈利了吗<img class="" data-ratio="1.1428571428571428" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yZPTcMGWibvvLx6F9VHHuduYRiaYhaE4bwdMnEEvWibYA9ldyN7Z85st83SDsv9LTmqiaul3Ymib9vzxUP4DIoxjMwg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="35" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" />?</p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG58dQFXMvPia9SBADib4prBUiczbBGDFFghTG3CrN5bmzh1f1Wfzic41zhYN5KysfVaHRxMnlwg2C0vcw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-ratio="0.9376811594202898" data-w="690" /></p><p><br /></p><p>其实我们都知道房价其实是由很多因素组成的,简单来说可以分为2个主要方面<img class="" data-ratio="0.6666666666666666" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfahic0btVC3RNmiciaf1ib1iaO95jh9zzWBfn80rnzGISHib0ibzhqILkcmia42ibw/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="48" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" />——</p><p><br /></p><p>一是红线外的地段因素,代表着提供的公共配套服务,主要指的是区位价值和公共配套;</p><p><br /></p><p>二是红线内的产品因素,提供的居住服务,归纳起来,就是社区档次和房屋品质。</p><p><br /></p><p>两者结合就是房价的价值公式:</p><p><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>房价=区位价值+公共配套+社区档次+房屋品质</strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p>阿神针对这4个方面,<img class="" data-ratio="0.9090909090909091" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfahLYrbKYKcgwiaTjrjE3eskUAfXPp2Fa9OKhibRqfNGicvYuSvNoFu8N1hQ/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="33" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" />分析了城市的几十个数据指标,通过机器学习的方式,让机器分别对这4个方面进行学习。</p><p><br /></p><p>用同样作为一线城市的深圳作为对标城市,</p><p>也就是先让机器学习了深圳的4个方面的因素,</p><p><br /></p><p>像AlphaGo学习棋谱那样也自动构建了房价模型,</p><p>然后放到上海来进行预测,看看针对上海不同品质的房屋,</p><p>房价到底会呈现一个什么样的状态<img class="" data-ratio="0.9285714285714286" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfah1zjsURXCd0ib548f510qTIXqBwIRGJbD94genCwOqotL0vaQRTDdjMg/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="42" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" />:</p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG58dQFXMvPia9SBADib4prBUicqJOsdYiclEPRK0Rw4jWJ5zxIS1mFXtiageZVeMZbNuWLNfLPyEoDsnKA/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-ratio="1.002691790040377" data-w="743" /></p><p><br /></p><p>从上图可以看到,对应到金茂府的这个品质的产品,</p><p>大宁街道所在板块,单价段在88759-100534的区间,</p><p>具体的数值是96019元/㎡,</p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7EeeibwibuOiaEhPQ9Wax5pJNN5UdPicRa6R7iaIuEdPcbONI7CG6pbAlVwNYMlHqouldbiahtFR3e3DBg/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-ratio="0.7599544937428896" data-w="879" /></p><p><br /></p><p>而大宁金茂府最后的整盘,实现均价大约在8-9万之间,<strong>可以说非常接近预测值了</strong><img class="" data-ratio="0.6491228070175439" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfahT1ISK6fwtVcloWJxKV1qBuK6EXGh68wDRnASIZaS6phdpF9frTyXPw/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="57" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" />。</p><p><br /></p><p>这就是做了一个对的产品,卖了一个对的价格。如果换成其他品质的产品,就会是不同的价格区间了哦。</p><p><br /></p><p>对于其他项目,我们整体分析了一下,平均需要上涨46%,才能达到预测值。也就是说——</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 20px;"><strong>上海中高端项目售价还能再涨<span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 24px;">46%</span><img class="" data-ratio="1.1428571428571428" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfahqY6UicB5Au1z30QIo2umh6icj4mBYoxjyWxCpWOv0v6uJuX5clAGVYhQ/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="35" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" /></strong></span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>所以不要看这么多地王,拍的比周边的面包还贵,但是如果能做一个对的定位,还是可以卖一个好价格的。</p><p><br /></p><p>那究竟是什么原因,导致上海房价被低估那么多呢?</p><p><br /></p><p>咳咳,你们懂得<img class="" data-ratio="1.0810810810810811" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfahsicTdK3qkibIQ7MF2quJgDGzzvWb7drSn5BRuo7mtpHkamTmIe4aVopg/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="37" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" />。</p><p><br /></p><p>对于这个预测结果,我们也可以从一些现象来进行侧面验证,之前出现的一二手房倒挂,高价楼盘各种排队、各种抢,也都反映了这个低估的现象。</p><p><br /></p><p>除了前面的品质改善以外,相信大家也想看看,<strong>普通刚需住宅的预测结果</strong>,快来找找,你心仪的板块的房价是多少吧<img class="" data-ratio="0.8205128205128205" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yZPTcMGWibvvLx6F9VHHuduYRiaYhaE4bwSIwA6ibCx4bZdAZic12rq87n1WswibWt7LicV9AtB8zRzFxkIpjmGvPWbg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="39" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" />——</p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG58dQFXMvPia9SBADib4prBUickRLFOBGqI7XYQp2GeoAahIahE2wMNdDI3FibUgzhibGOX2yXguFqEIfw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-ratio="1.008097165991903" data-w="741" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">说得好像,找到心仪的板块,你就买得起一样</span></p><p><br /></p><p>价格变低了,品质自然也就低了不少。</p><p>不过阿神看完觉得,还是租政府的房子算了<img class="" data-ratio="0.6888888888888889" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfahGua1lgSZkukYjMEGdvpXPTlBytib3fonRLj9gvT4MnLKLhtQ9B6iaCUg/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="45" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" />……</p><p><br /></p><p>看到这里,<img class="" data-ratio="0.8333333333333334" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yZPTcMGWibvvLx6F9VHHuduYRiaYhaE4bwAUYx6icr5qlsVGlZFOnJIoiaTUyMJtKB4kBwicd2uC60n6vQW4kZIRezw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="48" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 400px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: normal;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;display: inline;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: sans-serif;font-size: 14px;line-height: 26px;width: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" width="auto" />朋友又有疑问,为什么不用上海自身的数据来预测上海的房价呢?</p><p><br /></p><p>嗯嗯,这就会涉及到机器学习里的各种高深问题。</p><p><br /></p><p>简而言之,就是你用一只猫的特征来预测同一只猫,是没有什么意义的<strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(0, 209, 0);"><img class="" data-ratio="0.4098360655737705" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yZPTcMGWibvvLx6F9VHHuduYRiaYhaE4bwZX0yqrZibKGw8gnX5PXiaazltP7fVnHuutibYp4DWBN1GwK4jDYXbibvkQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="61" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></strong>。所以~~</p><p><br /></p><p>大家还想看看哪个城市,参照深圳标准的房价?</p><p><br /></p><p>或者看看哪个城市,参照上海标准的房价?</p><p><br /></p><p>请在留言里面告诉我们</p><p><img class="" data-ratio="0.45977011494252873" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/js1VnM2knL4qpXRWygawQxVAoHmibwfahDiaBkEQA2vlzg1YAcXsRtrjXVprQvLCCzX3jfQVqvcmb3wpxzkrictlQ/0.png?" data-type="png" data-w="87" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);" width="auto" />~</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;border-width: medium;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;-moz-border-top-colors: none;-moz-border-right-colors: none;-moz-border-bottom-colors: none;-moz-border-left-colors: none;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 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