史诗级大崩盘会来吗

<section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-before-oversubscription-url="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_gif/HbjXqFK3L72957xsibH48vUn4119YSdqKzKaWGu3iaLPF8MpDeGzGJRDyXEjp2hEX6VE5ruWP2uibv4tVibOrwYIaA/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-ratio="0.5625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/US10Gcd0tQEfcffueY0reDaT8agHibMbk6Pqc4ibhiccO8Pz07m9jJ4eyuPZVomxWiac5FdicwB3aOub11CqBzXQrjw/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="1280" height="40" style="width: 55.7969px;" width="94" /></p></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">前言</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">武汉出台房票政策，今后武汉将进入 " 凭房票买房 " 的时代。很多自媒体开始高喊，武汉楼市要凉。同时，恒大“爆雷”也让大家忧心忡忡，粉丝向我们发出由来已久的担心“史诗级大崩盘会来吗？”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">听一家之言，不如集百家之长。我们采访了多个不同地方，不同领域的资深“地产人”，他们大多表示“<strong>市场不会出现大崩盘，但会有局部分化的危机，行业到了一个历史转折点，房企将重新洗盘</strong>”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同时，我们<strong>采访了一二线城市的60后、70后、80后、90后、00后。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>购房者普遍较为乐观，尤其是对一二线的行情，或者供不应求，或者更新换代需求旺盛，从向往产品到向往服务，但也会对局部市场行情有所担心……</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>无论是地产人，还是购房者，大家的意见分化具体体现在哪？</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></strong></span></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 174px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.028735632183908046" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/8bbqUrjbZ5M5aIpq9M7j4MyqeaJEZnWfsbicvbJAV4tIUBh1XS6LytZsHPiaZibF7ic0AqUIGtGl7BzpoXrxjykfBg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="348" style="display: block;" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们可以先来看看全国城市近一年市场情况，打开禾略种子，<strong>2020年6月-2021年6月，全国300+城市二手房房价69%都在涨</strong>，排名前十的城市分别是：上海、深圳、北京、厦门、广州、杭州、三亚、南京、陵水、福州。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.6671469740634006" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPSqaJI1WhT9ibNBiay7MNb1nibor7dAKh9RbtalGLPkWfBrHGuZaWGdYog/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="694" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="1.0210249671484888" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPfB8G1SicibJwqMKo9F7nc12fSibKsB04SwJbaWaFOfhj1pSMjictzvEibFg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="761" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源：禾略研究院，下同</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">其次，考虑到不同的访谈对象，他们的观点和他们所处的市场相关，所以我们简单看看一二线城市的市场周期，作为背景参考——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.565483476132191" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP5CXxgO2PCPLj66ic1LiaT23BEpLtDAtCKM5w0QBJ7ZibxqLUn8EelUh2g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="817" style="width: 233px;height: 132px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，市场即将进入高位回落，现在正是最高位，大家都信心满满。但<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计到2</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">02</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">3</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">年2月</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场信心</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">仍</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">在</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">底部盘整</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="183" data-backw="433" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPV7d7IFhCH3INoSBcgmCgP002olcic9SbiccruGR92NiciaFcJHuweaFcrQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="365.38235294117646" data-cropx2="1651.6470588235295" data-cropy1="80.20588235294117" data-cropy2="623.8235294117646" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.42265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP11rppBbmF8gjTvdiaRP8xb3CdgBpF88qEYZwWHGianlx9CDb5kCkJLtg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京城市投资总H：“市场不会崩盘，<strong>但7月是行业历史的转折点</strong>，房地产股债双杀，房企破产、重组好多都集中爆发，现在正是房企的重生时刻。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京地产人T：“没觉得地产要崩盘呀？<strong>北京看起来还好，我觉得可能是分化吧，铁打的营盘流水的兵</strong>。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">老北京60后D：“<strong>崩盘不会吧！但别指望还会是支柱产业了。房地产的好日子过去了，人口早都开始下降了</strong>。还有学区房也不会再炒了。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5617433414043583" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP4bSeTCZZAAxb8ubVQcVPPiarKKXa3YzibUmHx1iblj5rTzewhLa0Gt5NA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="826" style="width: 262px;height: 147px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心高位回落，接下来到2023年2月，都在高位盘整。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.35066981875492514" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP2KL8UwYmNvbgA30icjevrplJaynCOtrGibvh90l3QDv7PbgkTx9H4USg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>沪深</strong>产业人F：“<strong>不会大崩盘，但会局部崩盘</strong>——有些地方土地出让失控，地方财政崩溃，实体经济无法支撑的城市和地区。因为房地产和金融、地方财政收支密切关联，所以不能单独看房地产本身，这个考验地方政府执政能力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>无论怎么调控，在国家层面，房地产都是属于国家财政收支、经济平衡的一个有效工具。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在不同时空的经济基本面，都要经受国家机器调控的意志，作为房地产人就应该理解这个，不能理解或者违背国家意志机器的房地产公司是外行，也不配在房地产行业混。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在对国家意志充分领会基础上选对城市，意味着这些城市本身的地方执政者也是领会上意，同时也是专业操盘城市的政府机构，所以要选对城市。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>上海</strong>地产人C：“<strong>楼市应该问题不大，但是二手房交易估计会非常难</strong>。因为调控对二手房的市场影响非常大，如果你手里有二手房特别多的话，要抓紧处理，因为接盘人越来越少，如果出租，收益率能超过3%，应该都是好的物业，然后再盘一盘看一看。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海企业中层80后H：“<strong>国家会救的，随随便便就救起来了</strong>，房企可以死，行业不能崩。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海打工人90后H：“<strong>网上不是说分化吗</strong>？豪宅涨幅大于一般住宅。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海土著95后W：“三线城市会崩吧，<strong>一线城市核心资产永远上涨</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5729794933655006" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPRs8tbJSeR2FdpDyJ6dFEI5sCQHHibDJnBuWZzm9MKibd2ItKIUVXJpgw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="829" style="width: 262px;height: 150px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心正处于高位回落，预计到2023年2月，<span style="font-size: 14px;">市场信心</span>仍在底部。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5626450116009281" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/SaTPq7phT3k1IoVvcjjfBH0r5JTclEvyutnNMM6CaaaB5Meqj1YBibiazghGcsFfv3iaUfW2FzHLdUFB49UX1fP8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1724" height="563" width="1286" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>广州</strong>地产研究院院长Y：“大盘不会崩，就问<strong>你和你周边的人想买房吗？想住更好的房子吗</strong>？只是行业会把差的房企淘汰掉”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州包租婆80后M：“会横盘吧，虽然国家有出台学区房、限购、放贷等政策去调控，但还不至于导致崩盘，<strong>如果只是考虑政策收紧，我感觉不至于崩</strong>“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5687263556116016" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPrBQOM8MmNOQkMCjkibPYc63F1Neeu9VasrCibfbblib6btqROFQmq8H5w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="793" style="width: 241px;height: 137px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心进入底部回升阶段，一直到2022年3月才能恢复，但受访者表示，他们家的房子每周接到中介的报价都是涨的，主要原因可能在于深圳的房子资产属性更强。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.3551181102362205" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPule1eWWKUG8HomUGpDGibDqqcywpHwEGCF8u4NwwSVzWye7g3ANXU2A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1270" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>大湾区</strong>城研人Z：“<strong>大崩盘来不了，一二线城市会被‘捆住’</strong>，啥都干不了，难受而已。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大湾区城市投资总D：“现实中的房地产行业，不会崩盘，<strong>股市中的房企，则面临跌破净资产的困局</strong>”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>深圳</strong>地产人L：“<strong>行业到了全面建规则的阶段，包括商业也是</strong>，总得做一些带有公共属性的内容，才能让商业活下来，真正服务于民，而不是拿下来就考虑怎么甩包袱卖掉。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大湾区城市投资总B：“史诗级大崩盘可能因人而异，一些运转较健康的企业可能短期不会担心这个问题，<strong>一些高杠杆、产品差、管理混乱的企业可能会遭遇此类风险</strong>；</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">近期虽然国家对行业管控较严格、政策频出，但基本思路是为了行业更加健康和稳健发展，这也<strong>倒逼企业经营要改善</strong>，才能够做得更好。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>大湾区</strong>客研人W：“房地产是不会崩盘的，地产行业是仅次于制造业的第二大产业，是中国经济的基石基础。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同时，地产和金融行业联系紧密，地产崩盘对整个经济和社会来说，具有很大的危害和不确定性，但<strong>行业会进入一个大调整时期，重新建立秩序，往精细化发展</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房企能不能科学发展，其实完全是依赖投资，然而以前市场太好，投资也傻了，怎么拿地都能涨涨涨，产品做得很坑也能卖，因为当时大家都很缺房子，但未来就不一样了——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房企大的调整方向肯定是往精细化去发展，<strong>房地产会从单纯的开发商往不动产的方向发展，就是“运营商+开发商”的模式</strong>。比如腾讯、</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">阿里也有他们做不动产的逻辑，行业和行业之间会互相渗透，互相促进改变一个大方向。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在深圳具备核心资产的90后I:“ <strong>为什么会有人觉得房地产会崩盘</strong>……我们小区的人都觉得好的楼盘会走出自己独立的行情，差的楼盘会崩。只要人口还是不断涌入就有需求买房。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">全家定居在深圳的90后M：“之前三胎政策一出来，然后就严打校外K12教育，昨天是网游，又提出未来5年全民健身计划，<strong>接下来要扫除一切阻碍生娃道路上的障碍</strong>。感觉地产、医疗也在计划中。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在深圳刚买房的90后L：“不会大崩盘，只是不会暴涨而已，因为我们是社会主义市场经济，<strong>个人感觉只有爆发战争才会大崩盘吧</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来深圳2个月的80后H：“<strong>房地产市场崩了，中国经济就崩了</strong>，最多软着陆。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来深圳10余年的80后J：“一线城市我觉得降点合理哈，<strong>怎么也不会崩盘吧 不然系统性金融风险太大了。我觉得国家也不会不管的</strong>，你看腾讯，不就接了恒大的盘。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">定居深圳几年的80后Z：“北上广深的房地产不会崩盘，虽然世界历史上面有日本经济泡沫崩盘、美国金融危机、希腊债务危机、而且历史世界上有和我国相似的点，但无论从根本上的政府管控、市场经济的有计划还是无计划，包括资本主义的影响力，都有很大区别。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而且<strong>咱们国家也不会允许崩盘，只会稳定，其实最近出台的很多政策只是稳定房地产市场，而不是打压</strong>，把一些炒房和虚高价格尽量减少。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在深圳从事证券行业的80后Z：“<strong>一、二线城市，涨幅收窄，个别月份涨幅为负，三线以下城市，从去年开始，房价明显下滑</strong>，国家政策调控效果较为明显。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房地产在国民经济中占比和地位受多方面历史因素影响并没有发生实质性变化，依然占有较大比重。从政策性角度分析，期待进一步减少流入地产板块的资金流，<strong>降低房地产金融属性、去杠杆，稳步引导房地产资金流向其他行业</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">暂居深圳的天津80后：“房价的话，近期感觉经济好的城市还不会崩吧，<strong>经济不好的城市已经崩了</strong>；房地产企业的话， 感觉还不会崩，但说不定会有变数，比如类似禁止辅导班这种事，<strong>如果国家为了三胎，也搞下房地产，可能会崩一下</strong>，不会像教育这种全崩，崩一部分，扛不住的应该会有。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在深圳工作生活20余年的70后W：“崩盘谈不上，但是<strong>会逐渐过渡</strong>。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在深圳准备退休的60后L：“<strong>深圳不会崩盘，供不应求</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5793871866295265" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPfulgo9kPM3ZzFYpAqenicnENIZ8E3GZ8xOGxP9EOcp3yoPjzjydeibdA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="718" style="width: 242px;height: 140px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心下行，预计2022年3月，开始底部回升。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.3475177304964539" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP8WNib3MreOdOBUOHY7YqBL58f6FU1uZ7Iibnibp8vxBkMCmZwEZkKQFNw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">杭州投资部地产人：“<strong>如果崩塌是颠覆性的打压，类似于近期的教育行业，应该不会</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">宏观层面，经济下行有压力，内外部环境都不是那么乐观，地产行业及相关对经济相关带动有10%+，不会在这个时候下狠手，并且内部定调是稳，不是说打倒。经济大环境不会收紧，只是地产定向收紧。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大基调调控力度频次是有加大，地方和中央也有博弈，分城市来看，每类城市都有所不同，大趋势是看人口流入量和质，再看需求。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>但整体来说，确实进入了新的阶段</strong>，我看研究大佬任泽平提到了关键词，新房改，这个同意”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">杭州从事私募的90后：“作为一个十年没有关注杭州楼市的人，只能说一下对房地产的认识。<strong>房地产公司本质是个金融实体</strong>，资产端是房子，负债端是银行贷款，房子是生产队外包建造的，<strong>他们的核心能力是现金流管理和拿地的能力</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本质上他们是一个高杠杆轻资产的行业，房价涨不上去或者下跌，对于负债大于自有现金的房地产企业来说问题就会很大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">就像炒期货爆仓，比如现在的恒大，但是对于自由现金充裕的房地产企业来说影响的只是增速，比如万科。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>房地产公司经营的不是生产，而是关系</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">杭州崩盘不至于，应该说是外来人口增长过快，加上传统行业不挣钱，导致很多产业资金流入了房地产，透支了未来好几年的涨幅。有需求在，一二线城市的房价撑得住，但是三四线城市的房价会比较危险。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>未来会是三四线房子卖不动，一二线城市拿不到地</strong>，这个现象应该会越来越严重。房地产公司慢慢从增量开发转为存量开发，或者转向物业服务。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5833333333333334" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPlBGTPS79ofW33O5rx530yekGhQicbknsCPYXjpyIjvJEWorcseKjrCw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="720" style="width: 211px;height: 123px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心处于高位回落阶段，预计盘整至2023年3月，开始回暖。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-backh="188" data-backw="427" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPwDu74AibL6KNATdGEVhft0tgKOy8VphLFLMibkN6fmALP60JQL3hGYmQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="267.6401384083045" data-cropx2="1204.38062283737" data-cropy1="57.03806228373702" data-cropy2="469.4671280276816" data-ratio="0.439701173959445" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPjvibpAIw0PZwZT8wZM5Z23WPZ08hCHGlMRicxkh65VdewHZQZtFkrHtA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="937" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>西南</strong>客研人J：“疯狂之下才会崩盘，现在房地产调控这么严格，很难疯狂。倒是感觉有可能<strong>熄火，进入冰封期</strong>“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都金融业90后W：“房地产整个行业肯定是不会崩盘的，天塌下来有高个的顶着，只不过<strong>现在水漫上来就要淹死不少中小型房企了</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都应届毕业生95后Y：“我觉得不会，国家管控越来越严了撒，<strong>部分地区的可能会吧，像厦门那种，房价巨高</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5762237762237762" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP94BteK82udEHvKB7aMUIG9TALwDJbttvh4ic0OEpoNoKGCr7cl4aUGg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="715" style="width: 215px;height: 124px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心处于高位回落阶段，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计盘整至</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">202</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">2</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">年7月，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">开始</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">回暖</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.2975420439844761" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP0mtKMiaEEg5qYY1saCQDyFuSgf8iaZSotXcQvmlWSwUMtd9Mh8NaXRyw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1546" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>中西部</strong>地产人Z：“一直在中西部不温不火区域搬砖，很难想象崩盘，但房企确实在面临挑战。<strong>今年出的所有政策都是利好万科</strong>，当年班里的差学生“大碧”，投机取巧，钻政策漏洞，贪天功为己有；树了一个不好的榜样——其实就是把一个丐版的顺驰做成了；让班里的其他同学都有样学样，带坏班风。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">好学生万科经历过大风大浪，在资源禀赋不足的情况下，坚持做难而正确的事儿——通过老老实实做别人看不上的地，不良资产重整等难题，不断磨练自身能力；同时又经历过大风大浪，所以有投资定力，懂舍得；所以现时情况下最适合万科。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这是领导们想看到的，<strong>房企回归地产开发的本质，盖好房、种好地</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆90后J：“我觉得可能会吧，主要是因为前段时间恒大的问题，<strong>恒大在我们这里的房子，都打五折六折卖，但是都是期房，没有人敢买，都怕跑路了</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆90后A：“我觉得不会额，毕竟还有国家的宏观调控在啊，<strong>最多就是行业缩水</strong>，但应该到不了崩盘的地步的感觉。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆90后L：“<strong>我觉得房地产市场有崩盘的可能性，但是和我购房的行为影响不大</strong>，如果房地产崩盘了，那整个社会都要买单，相当于一颗核弹爆了，谁也幸免不了，那时候就算不买房，其他资产也要贬值，有房子至少还能住（当然，除了坚信房子一定会崩盘，所以拼命买黄金的那些人，但是我显然不会买黄金）。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">另一个角度，<strong>房子是目前老百姓少有的可以加杠杆的相对稳妥的投资行为</strong>，1个人觉得房地产会崩，10个人在后面拿着杠杆等着接盘，我去做同样的事情，如果我倒霉了，有10个人也跟着倒霉，心理平衡撒。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">还有，大城市永远是稀缺资源，任何一个国家和历史时期，都不可能做到每一寸土地都有相对一样的发展程度，<strong>大城市房价一旦出现松动，那就有一堆人等着入场去买这个长期定居机会</strong>，也不会大崩到哪去。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以，如果房地产出现大崩盘，得满足以下条件：1、买房不能加杠杆了 2、户籍制度和房地产不挂钩 3、大城市资源不再稀缺 4、国家找到了新的经济支撑，或者不管死活，往死里干地产，我觉得上述条件都满足的可能性不大，所以<strong>我觉得房地产不会大崩盘，当然我说的主要是一二线城市，十八线小县城不在此列</strong>。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆企业主80后Q：“<strong>大家还是有更新换代的需求，很差的房子肯定会崩</strong>，但越高端的房子越保值，尤其是二三线城市。未来人口减少，二三线密集型的高层肯定不行，加上质量的问题，会被人们逐渐抛弃，但这个问题可能再过10年才会爆发。重点要看政策怎么走，<strong>以后的房子可能不是卖所有权，而是服务流</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5524568393094289" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPXvzVewMmTCtlTwu5ic4xVIfLZVDfKC7siaNWzsonvFAxskQ9wFICicnQg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="753" style="width: 237px;height: 130px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心处于高位回落阶段，预计2022年3月开始底部回升。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.30481622306717365" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPT02DR6RibE2ibv4mbFMFsFqENxxNyKVbkSk6KLmZKsKbACEYqeoHekNg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1578" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>郑州</strong>地产人L：“市场不会崩，未来会是‘<strong>稳房价、稳预期、稳地价</strong>’为主。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">行业最大的挑战是，<strong>会死一批房企，但房价不会崩，留下来的以后利润也是越来越薄</strong>，扛得住低利润的企业能够多活一段，把其他企业熬死以后，慢慢就好了。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">郑州企业中层80后：“崩盘基本不可能的，毕竟地产占比还是比较大的，而且<strong>相当一部分人需要置业和置换，只是这一波管控会把中小地产淘汰吧</strong>，更多担心的是这些中小地产的项目，还有高风险的恒大的地产项目。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5818181818181818" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP81ibJPrrO1g1iaC0vCAPbWLkUYJUUSNPg6B9NpsWjggT5fjPK19nfbVA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="715" style="width: 190px;height: 110px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心向上冲高，预计2022年1月到达顶峰，开始高位回落。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.2854393842206543" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPYNoFLzpeia80FYdxJJkyFUOdJTrBicC0ZqibM00bLW51XP3rpysJ02m5A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1559" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>江西</strong>地产人：“1，房地产不会崩盘。调控的目标是求稳，既不能房价上涨（金融安全，政治安全，内外双循环，人口扩增需求等）都需要<strong>稳定房价，限制流动性，防止炒热，扩大内需。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2，房价也不会有明显下滑，尤其是一线城市和强二线城市，<strong>一是确保地方政府财政，二是稳定银行金融稳定</strong>，不然崩盘损失最大的是银行系统，同样造成社会极度不安定。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3，房地产行业，与金融行业高度相关，也是强民生行业，城市中产的资产大都在房子里面，是不会崩盘的，既是民生需要也是政治需要。再加上“社会主义美好生活”不是一句口号的，目前远远达不到这一目标，<strong>居者有其屋到居者好生活</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>南昌</strong>地产HR：“要先定义啥是崩盘，<strong>中国群众基础这么大，如果房价跌到某一个心理价位，就会有人去买房、置换</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">买房的地域范围也很广呀，工作所在地需要房子，父母所在地需要房子，小孩长大了需要房子，父母养老需要房子。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">南昌local70后：“<strong>小开发商应该很多都挺不过去了，现在政府也很焦虑，怕地产崩盘，但又不敢带头救市</strong>，听说新来书记也是形象派，南昌不可能有大政策。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5465753424657535" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP2bf04Dhd1WJzENkGv1b5swJ8UHTA1CgicxdLgNhyNSHYIG5hghwomuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="730" style="width: 226px;height: 123px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心正处于高位回落，预计到2022年11月才开始回暖。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5630914826498423" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/h5BB3G1omSibYTicDbVvI8TEFo6I25kgxHm1Ymib53TU4jxzzjMGa8ryEJ4hVI4qOEs1j4HTwNFicibmu7T9u1O6rsg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1268" height="422" width="934" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.802547770700637" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMP9ZzaJA05wkcNiaiceSZ0fW8Yk4iajnwcdxrvxJZXxsI9Y2ztO8AOfAKZg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="157" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">长沙本地95后X：“不会崩盘吧，像我在长沙，<strong>感觉还在涨，更买不起了</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5735294117647058" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPcgfDxcDyt1LoAmLj5Cn0icxpTOZO70clWH4r8gsKkicWFYEdZ2oHW4pQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="748" style="width: 216px;height: 124px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心向上冲高，目前处于信心峰值，预计8月开始高位回落，直至2022年11月，开始反弹。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5630914826498423" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/LnVaNQKczCNnHFDs1bVldUyOWu83j6hqsH0uQTlWibl5XaibD4ytRuS3BcU6raMvUvVpEDxiaYLz1uR7YbKKAkZkA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1268" height="422" width="935" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">地产人怎么想：</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">合肥投资部地产人X：“中国政府不可能也不会让房地产像日本一样硬着陆崩盘的，尤其在全球疫情持续蔓延的时间，<strong>房地产稳定，也代表着经济稳定</strong>，我觉得最起码十四五期间都不会，<strong>但是显而易见的是，政府会持续加大调控力度</strong>。“</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">合肥准大学生00后C：“不会崩盘，<strong>土地是国有的，价权不在市场，要崩二十年前就崩了</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.520618556701031" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPZx1bRVkzIyltVLgxPUWoOwwJKRz43P6hFGezzMOnh00jjsQicpEQ47g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="776" style="width: 226px;height: 118px;"></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心正处于低位盘整，预计2022年6月开始回暖。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.2735483870967742" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPSQkmyA8gFBHT3gXcUszyybOe7QasjWvJ5t3ADb8EDbV5eEuvbA1YLg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1550" style=""></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>沈阳</strong>客研人N：“首先，<strong>国家要的是平稳、软着陆，纵然有牺牲的，最多是太贪心的房企</strong>，自身本就有问题，比如恒大的盲目扩张。都崩了那就是连锁反应，谁都没办法独善其身。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">就像我们在武汉访谈，有个小老板后悔做实业要去炒房，国家也做调研他们不知道吗？国家要做的就是‘干扰归正’，让社会整体健康发展。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">其次，房地产产品本身是供人使用的空间，无论是商业还是住宅。<strong>随着社会的发展人民日益增长的物质文化需求，对空间的使用需求也会有所提升，因此行业继续精细化发展是必然</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">沈阳80后：“可能会有小幅降价，崩盘不会吧，房地产所牵扯的行业也很多，<strong>国家不是也会靠房产征收税金</strong>。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5547850208044383" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPv48N7cnayX29fGV0B3eib9vkTCicnScnRanc3icl2TE5lB7V7t5RoPs3A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="721" style="width: 198px;height: 110px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心目前正处于下探筑底，预计2022年10月开始回暖。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5630914826498423" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/2exSuBKTOHHE1SYSLyHMcGU7kZcbgTzIMoJGBLyLGD68QpXh21Gzf5cBCdXu0au8IHEF3cshzo5fqUm60vJsJA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1268" height="420" width="930" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">莞深投资地产人：“：<strong>崩盘不会，但肯定不再是暴利行业了</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">行业利润空间下行、进入管理红利时代是大趋势，<strong>中小企业加速出局，大企业也会面临三道红线等强管控下的经营困境</strong>，而具有危机意识和前瞻视野的大企业，将开始进入业务转型的阵痛期。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">总而言之：越来越难做”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">暂居东莞的90后：“<strong>不会大崩盘，政府还是会稳定房地产市场</strong>，最近东莞、深圳都出台了一些房地产的规划意见。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">长期定居东莞的80后：“<strong>崩不会，下调是一定的了，楼价会平稳一段很长时间</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.568733153638814" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPT9qXICp43vSYaP0nJlQTPwvia2VDrQC4MkkjwpPQWXiaQDfNzoHfgcHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="742" style="width: 228px;height: 130px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年7月，</span>市场信心正处于低位盘整阶段，预计2022年3月，才开始回暖。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.3392630241423126" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6OJGFu2lMQkUaPwdia0vkMPAGbUBmmMtnicqzSzxFVe4o5hjT3RDUmoB8WyPaWInlMviaLXeD7L8jvA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1574" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地产人怎么想</strong>：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">唐山地产人：“首先我觉得可能不会到崩盘这地步，大的方向国家的政策导向一直是三稳，并且强调“房住不炒”，<strong>地产行业可能不像新兴产业发展那么快，应该算是一个夕阳产业</strong>，但我觉得整体应该还是稳的，向前的，可能会比较慢。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>唐山市场从去年的928政策以后就迅速遇冷一直到现在</strong>，目前唐山市场应该处于一个萧条期，这个周期可能会持续一段时间。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但挺过这段时间应该就会稳步恢复正常，因为<strong>现在市场对住房还是有需求的</strong>，所以短时间来看，可以叫“崩盘”，到放到大周期里，拉通时间我觉得不会。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>购房者怎么看：</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">唐山本土刚需80后：“<strong>下半年可能是刚需人群买房的一个好时机，但不建议投资</strong>，与其现在在唐山市区投资一套房，不如去一、二线城市投资，一二线城市投资价值更大。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: 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