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同为超一线,上海和深圳的差异究竟在哪?

发布于 2022-05-17

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100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 2em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;&nbsp; /&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CHAPEAU</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></p></section><p style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></p></section></section><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">以深圳、上海为例,慎用规模视角,用结构识别机会</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">近期发生2件事情,有些疑问:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一是本轮地产寒潮以来,很多TOP20里的民企暴雷,反而一些地方企业,还活得好好的,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>说好的</strong><strong>行业集中度提升,大而不倒呢?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">这次好像跟大小无关。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">二是深圳、上海本次对疫情管控效果的大相径庭,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>同为超一线城市,为何差异那么大?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">说好的一线就是强、就是好,三四线就是不行呢?</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">刚好前段时间,郑老板发来T0P10董事的提问:如何进行城市分类?背后的底层逻辑是什么?如何指导接下来的城市布局及深耕?</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一直在思考,但隐约觉得一二三四线这种规模视角不对,上面两个疑问彷佛就是告诉我们,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>地产下半场,城市的深耕、企业的发展、市场的收益同规模无关</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,我们需要借助其他视角来找到未来的机会。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">直觉告诉我,需要考虑地理因素、用一些质量及结构的视角,以广东省为例,初步拟定这个思路,将城市细分为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>共同富裕、美好生活、移民城市、地缘城镇等4个类型</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。但好像很难落地,逻辑似乎不够自洽,同事正在进行数据落地及修正,后续有机会再详细分享。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="298" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="298" data-ratio="0.5459610027855153" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65vQO3MlKgbyfpicZ2opf2l6U3gIEbPRYj6M24GCGGEDprf7unJVDMp2g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2154" style="width: 546px;height: 298px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">反思最近网络上对上海、深圳这两个城市各种不同的见解,大多是基于体感及短期事件进行阐述,“看多深圳、看空上海”基本成为共识。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>发现</strong><strong>对于“人”的讨论是最为激烈的</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,也是分歧最大的,作为深圳人,可能很难理解“动态清零”这还需要讨论?做核酸也需要打扮得“十分标致”,整个抗原同步帮全国人民普及了各大奢侈品的LOGO及名称。但正所谓“存在即合理”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">于此,本文想通过一些基础的人口数据,进行结构视角的阐述,聊聊两个城市究竟有哪些差异,或许从事件背后的原因,可以得出一些城市分类的视角。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>01</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">流量城市与增量城市</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">上海</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="154" data-ratio="0.28246515040352166" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65VC7TbIibPntibmHaYlAM8eaRibuCvobbhfrL43gm49BRvbk8qNVTJ9KFQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1363" style="width: 546px;height: 154px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">虽然都是强一线城市,但上海是典型的老牌一线,早在1990年就拥有1334万人口,一直有非常严格的人口限制政策, 10年前人口基本进入稳定状态,人口总规模保持在2300-2500万左右。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">再看户籍人口,会更有趣一些,可以说自从1990年以来,户籍人口一直保持在1200-1500万之间,增长极其缓慢。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">用两个数据做比较,计算发现户籍人口比例最近10年保持在60%左右,即</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>上海是个本地人为主+外地人为辅的城市。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">常住人口的稳定或许意味着从规模增长到质量提升。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">那户籍人口的规模及比例稳定意味着什么呢?</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">意味着不需要那么多外地人,或者说城市没有能力(或不想)提供那么多基础配套设施,因为不能落户,意味着小孩教育、家庭购房、社保养老都将受到各种约束。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">也可以解读为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>对于一个新上海人来说,扎根上海的概率几乎为0,成为过客是已知的宿命</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,目前看不到任何放开户籍政策的可能性,疫情或许加强了政府对人口规模的恐惧,适度默认人口流失、返乡务工都是情理之中。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从各种新闻事件中,我们看到一些劝返的动作,真假不得而知,但也可以从侧面反映上述的趋势。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以我们可以做个简单的定义——</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>上海是个流量城市</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,因为极难扎根,同时体量巨大,注定是你来我往的格局。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);white-space: normal;"><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">深圳</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们再来看看深圳的数据:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="146" data-ratio="0.2665198237885463" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65zd865mfnJXAYh5x05zhgqibAJZPrYib9Hj1aZia6PKd9OaXpib6hh4hNMg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1362" style="width: 548px;height: 146px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们都知道深圳是由小渔村发展而来,在1990年人口仅仅168万,远不如目前一个普通的三四线城市,而到2020年人口达到1763万,是个典型的新晋一线城市。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">除了常住人口的增长,与之对应的是户籍人口同样增长迅猛,从2010年的251万,到2020年514万,基本实现了倍增,户籍人口占比也稳定提升5%,2020年户籍人口比例接近30%,即有1/3的人来深圳实现了扎根,虽然比例依然不高,但相对上海千军万马过独木桥,这无疑是不错的结果。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">概括的说,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳是个新移民为主,老移民为辅的城市</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">来了就是深圳人,从数据层面上来说,1/3可以是,2/3不是,是否沦为过客主要看造化。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">因为户籍人口的稳定增长及比例提升,可以定义</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳是个增量城市</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,很多人解读为它的包容性。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">结合实际经济发展来说,它确实需要一定人口的稳定及安居来支撑,同时户籍体量依然很小,公共配套服务压力也相对小,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>关键是增量供给与增量需求的匹配</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,我们看到面对巨量年轻人口的导入,2021年深圳新增13.1万基础教育学位。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而深圳增量供需匹配最为突出的矛盾,当然是新增住房的供给严重不足,导致价格的飙涨,过去10年平均每年新增72.6万人口,但住房供给每年平均在580.4万平,意味着人均新增商品住房供给7.99平/人,如果按照深圳的人均住房面积22.58平/人(全国是39.8平/人),那就是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>新增住房需求满足率是35.41%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,当然这个算法比较适合增量型主导城市。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">除了流量、增量城市,还有一类,那就是存量城市,比如东北很多人口停滞增长及流动的城市。做个简要的小结,我们</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>基于“人的流动性”可以将城市分类3类:</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">存量型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:人口没有增长、流动性极低,城市发展缓慢,容易形成新区空城。</span></p></li><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">增量型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:人口快速聚集,新增的人口促使城市新的中心快速崛起。</span></p></li><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">流量型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:以人口置换为主,国内与国外、一线与二线、小城与大城,往往是双向的,容易形成各种交错与混合。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这里补充两点:一是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>大多数城市其实都有多重属性,关键看哪个属性更突出</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">深圳的流量也很大,每年都有很多带着梦想的年轻人来,也有不少打工几年买不起房,选择折返的,但相比而言,每年排名第一70万增量,才是其最典型的特征,所以每出现一个新中心,就必将打败老中心,老中心甚至连新中心的郊区都不如。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">二是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>流量型城市,核心是看,谁留谁走</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">比如北京,虽然人口总量没增长,但随着很多基础服务产业外迁,很多普通服务蓝领走了,相对的,高新码农、互联网新贵、生物医药高知增加了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>02</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">赚钱城市与花钱城市</span></strong><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一个有趣的现象:封控了,深圳上热搜的是搬电脑,上海是团购Shake Shack?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">首先从全市整体就业情况说一下,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳就业率为73.28%,而上海为55.31%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,相差近20%,直接就可以体现,<span style="font-size: 16px;">为何</span>一个城市更关注上班,另一个更想要自由生活。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="111" data-ratio="0.20473372781065088" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP657dflia4QIcx0m8ib0hHuBhPHiamRrAZnFSJfd5sx501ossPHh81Vr3oCA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="845" style="width: 546px;height: 112px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">再看就业企业类型的结构,差异也巨大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">深圳公布全社会就业主体的结构,私营个体就业人员就业达784.55万,占比高达60.7%,而国有企业仅有56.8万;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上海目前只看到规上企业(年收入大于2000万),以服务业为例,港澳台及外资企业占比达22.3%,私营占比41.66%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这就是通常我们所说的,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳中小老板多、上海国际化属性强</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。自负盈亏,就是说深圳很多人是自己为自己上班,当然得更拼命。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我非常喜欢说,一个人如何花钱的,关键取决于他钱的来源。具体我们来看看这两个城市居民收入得来源差异,在我们政府的统计口径中,收入来源可以分为4种。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="197" data-ratio="0.3606060606060606" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65VjPrYnofTtdOPtMD18Vk79FT9xs1T7L5g5YsicLgg9vaqVw2ga9cu5w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="990" style="width: 546px;height: 197px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1. </span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">普通打工人</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>工资收入</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,我们直接来看看深圳和上海的差异,深圳打工人工资收入占比高达82.7%,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>意味着不工作立马就没收入,工作基本就是收入的全部</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而上海只有57.6%,比全国平均水平还低,所以即使封控后,深圳人更关注啥时候解封,别耽误上班搞钱(我在途中听到的原话是:我每天开销1-2千,政府发钱吗?政府每天给我2千块,我天天可以在家),上海没人谈什么工作、搞钱,主要是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>一场自由与民主的讨论,核心是影响“我”的生活</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2. 做生意小老板</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>经营收入</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,上海远远低于深圳,且都低于全国平均水平。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />我觉得有三方面的原因,第一是高租金下,个体商业经营确实很难赚钱,所以都低于全国平均水平11.4%;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />二是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳中小老板还是相对多</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,特别是关外开厂的,上海是国企企业多,所以这块收入少;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">三是即使开铺做生意,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>上海有些人是为了情怀</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,不然既耗时间又耗空间的咖啡厅咋那么多呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3. 金融房产土豪的</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>财产收入</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,上海高于深圳,这点不难理解,上海收租的本地人多、房产总体规模体量也更大,各种金融资产也多。财产收入代表高阶层收入,利息、房租是“躺赢”非劳动性收入,所谓的底子厚。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.老年人退休金及年轻人住房公积金等</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>转移收入</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。这块主要是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>受到年龄结构的差异</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,上海老年人多,他们是不用交社保公积金这些,反而是收入主要来源,占比高达26%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而深圳还处于向政府交纳社保公积金的状态,所以是负值,我们<span style="font-size: 16px;">常</span>听说深圳养老负担很轻,平时确实很少看到老年人扎堆出现。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">前段时间,郑老板发了个视频,说上海最火的舞厅</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>新梦舞厅, “上海市人气夜店榜”第一名</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,看了很惊讶,主要是满足60-70岁大叔大妈的社交需求,人均消费10-30块/次。但是论消费多元性,还是上海更胜一筹。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一切社会现象,或多或少都会在数据上有所体现,或许是原因、或许是结果。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="263" data-ratio="0.4783027965284474" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65j46ib59fPVbVqEhHe8VqSYosDicVEnzWdImnoErP16qwjXLVhOQsywKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1037" style="width: 548px;height: 262px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">深圳因为年轻,所以食品烟酒、交通通讯开销大;上海因为年长,所以居住、医疗开销大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本篇章,主要是要结合“</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>人为何来到城市</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">”?这个原点对城市的属性进行归类——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">赚钱城市(工作型)</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:就业率高、年轻人口多,看重效率,更包容的就业环境及成本适配,多是一些新兴城市,比如合肥、郑州、重庆、武汉、东莞、泉州、苏州、无锡等;<br /></span></p><p><br /></p></li><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">花钱城市(消费型/生活型)</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:就业率低、中老年人多,看重质量,高线城市看重多元化的品牌与消费体验,比如沈阳,为数不多有2家LV店的二线城市;低线城市或许更看重基础行政、医疗教育、商业配套,大部分三四线城市化就是以这个为主导。</span><br /><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p></li><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">混合型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:综合以上两种属性,通常是有一定历史底蕴的二线城市,比如成都、南京、广州,准确的说,成都是一个成功从“花钱主导”转向“混合型”的城市。</span></p></li></ul><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>03</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">生产城市与服务城市</span></strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们可以直接从二三产值的比值关系,看出深圳二产远高于上海,在这里想从更细分的维度来看,通过不同行业的就业人口,找出每个行业及类型的差异。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="429" data-ratio="0.7858391608391608" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65XUZPOjtD3rfR7bkBaY8icTUyaUtYpiczCmPPf0zuvRVTF4ED1rOglXNA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1144" style="width: 546px;height: 429px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、农业</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:万万没想到,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>大上海还有近45万的农业工作者</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,深圳只有1.3万农业工作者,估计主要在大鹏或者梧桐山的山脚下,因为受保护不能开发。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从城市化的角度可以看得很清楚,上海的面积是深圳的3倍,而且山水覆盖极少,整体可开发建设的平原用地基本是深圳的6倍。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体从图可以看出,上海是单核聚焦,出了外环,除了5大新城有些配套聚集,其他还有很多农村,而深圳除了那些山,能建设的地方基本都盖了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上海生活配套密度地图</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="366" data-ratio="0.669882839421089" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65ZFLaPdPw7fGJYuPIaYjrUfXRh39Nh1MZpRHAGg9dRSYF5t48bk2ibpg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1451" style="width: 546px;height: 366px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">深圳生活配套密度地图</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="358" data-ratio="0.658113730929265" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65uu70nlqP9luciagiaE2bHj49EDMM3pHZt9hZLMict9HfibV3vnyic69pQuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1442" style="width: 546px;height: 359px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、制造业</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳的就业人口比例比上海高15.1%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,具体人数达到415.2万,占比32.1%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这就是我经常会说深圳关内关外是两个世界,一个是写字楼里上班的白领主导、一个是厂房里上班的蓝领主导,基本形成了关外沙井-光明、龙岗华-观澜、龙岗-坪山三大工业聚集区。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当然地理空间上,随着城市化的进行,原来的关内外链接区域也在向关内靠拢。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">深圳的工业聚集区</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="318" data-ratio="0.5824175824175825" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65FtoibK4tlxDLsH1tHUTEkKJxJOmVQju7nMDryt2r1mEesFia7f3vvQSA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1456" style="width: 546px;height: 318px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上海的制造业,主要就是前段时间积极复工、复产的大企业,以特斯拉、上汽等汽车相关产业链最为突出,大佬们喊话就在这块,除此之外还有老经济宝钢、中国船舶等,新经济中芯国际、上海医药等为代表相关半导体、医药产业链企业。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">上海的制造业基本都是大块头,看得见影响力为主;而深圳私营小微企业多,多数是看不见的力量。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3. 商旅商贸</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:上海活跃度远高于深圳,具体体现在交通运输、商务服务就业人口比例均高于3%,借用上海发布会领导的说辞——上海不仅仅是上海人的上海,还是中国人的上海,当然还可以说是世界的上海。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这是由上海独立的地理位置所决定,不仅有出海口,还有长江内流运输力直通重庆,且距离中国内部人口经济中心近。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">很多人比较关心中国经济南强北弱(房地产朋友比较关注市场销售),这里简单分享下之前做的一张图。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以看到中国经济的地理中心位置在安徽、河南交界处,其实除了整体上看,最近10年开始加速向西南方向转移,所以不仅仅南强北弱,还有内循环下内陆的崛起。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">中国GDP 及房地产销售额地理中心</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="264" data-ratio="0.484863523573201" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65A8g2lDvr0zwMd5b131Nmu5Fh2fGG0jW6HibQB5NGRmseSTXVETqiberg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2015" style="width: 546px;height: 265px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一言以蔽之,上海是中外枢纽,上海港已经连续10年是世界第一大港口,而且坐拥2大机场,客运量都不低,我们用疫情前的数据来看, 分别是中国第2及第8大吞吐量机场,加一起是宝安机场的2倍多。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">全国机场吞吐量气泡图</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="416" data-ratio="0.7628691983122363" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65IuGlvyKW1EbibsQWNhFcGicCDd03HkiaiaPkpThpmbRWNvusPcUda4NXKA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1185" style="width: 546px;height: 417px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、互联网信息技术及科研</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:各有侧重。可能是受到腾讯的影响,深圳整体信息技术行业的就业人口要比上海多12万;但同时上海高校多,国有企业多,所以基础相关科研人员比深圳多15万,这块应该很好理解。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />之前把北京拉进来了,做了一个简要的分析,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>关于“卡脖子”为何总在深圳南山粤海街道?“科技突围”到底哪家强?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="484" data-ratio="0.8864774624373957" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65Mibswoje3aC0DcKJicxPSEbE4lP2IbfYborZibOewkggFjO5Eoib29NJpw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1198" style="width: 546px;height: 484px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">比较而言,粤港澳大湾区的科技创新源泉更多来源于企业,而非高校及科研机构,更具活力和市场转化能力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">中国内部更多是个分工的角色,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>北京顶级高校事业单位多数比较注重基础研究、上海大企、外企多数更侧重科研实验、深圳企业家精神强,更关注企业生产变现</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">(莫名跟深圳搞钱文化联系上),所以贸易战来临时,受到制裁的是企业及所在地的经济增长。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">说到这里,需要补充一下,很多人说深圳经济这两年下滑厉害,经济不行了,2021年同比只有6.7%,上海有8.1%。于是,我看了下结构数据:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">最近几年深圳经济为何失速了?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="442" data-ratio="0.8109756097560976" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65dgzVEM57I0GwFnvDtPQQFiaxBHejOtIuBdh2d22dguapGrA81kDR3IA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="820" style="width: 546px;height: 443px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">主要受到房地产建筑业、工业下滑的影响。房地产建筑业下滑主要是受到系统调控政策及基建的减速影响,其实没啥大问题,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>关键是工业增速不行</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="542" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="650" data-ratio="1.1977886977886978" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxiaQ0DgZqibOwJxL91lgnP65WibGOs08zoeTjORib3sM4t35hWB0TkXg6xnhtk4Qjt3tGpeALxhRXY8w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="814" style="width: 543px;height: 650px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体看细分行业——网络与通信2046.53亿,增速0.3%;智能终端2091.61亿,增速-1.9%;再看区域,龙岗区经济下滑-7.6%,其中工业增加值下降-19%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">答案其实很明显,主要就是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>华为的通信设备和手机业务受到影响</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,导致龙岗区经济及工业增加值大幅下滑所致,最终影响深圳经济的增速。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本小节核心阐述的是,可以从“</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>人靠啥来生存并发展</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">”来划分城市的类型。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过这轮房地产的调整及疫情的影响,我想我们应该更能理解行业的周期性及职业的稳定性,对人的影响力。我们可以通过不同主体就业优势主导来划分为四类:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: decimal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">农业型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:通过近20年的城市化,此类城市越来越少,但最近战争的爆发、疫情的封控,无疑让我们重新认识到农业的重要性。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果全球性通胀真的来袭,那么农业型城市也将受益。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">从全国来看,海南、河南农业属性相对强,一个因为气候、一个因为地貌。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>农业的特点是不稳定性强</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,收益看天气,市场不可知,所以我们一般去到五六线城市,很多居民是看口袋有多少就付多少,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>不会把杠杆用到最大</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">生产型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:主要是沿海参与国际产业链分工的城市,比如前文提到的东莞、泉州、义乌等,逆全球化的背景下,部分沿海城市的产业链肯定会受到影响,存在一些不可知风险。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">除此之外,有些内陆城市因为劳动力便宜,也在快速加强生产职能,比如宁德时代去宜宾、格力电器去赣州等,因为受益于不同产业链收益的波动,这类城市的产业多元化需要研判,多元往往韧性强,单一往往波动剧烈,如鄂尔多斯。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">服务型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:这里的服务是<span style="font-size: 16px;">指</span>营利性服务业占比高,主要包括商贸物流及高新科技产业等。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">广州、武汉、南京、杭州都是非常典型的服务型城市,这里的服务可以细分为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>生产服务、消费服务、金融服务</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">等。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">生产服务往往是一些高新技术,如美国硅谷、武汉光谷、南山科技园、上海张江高科等;</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">消费服务通常是一些商业商圈、媒体广告、文化电影,如美国好莱坞、南京新街口、上海南京路、北京798艺术区等;</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">金融服务大家比较熟悉,通常以CBD冠名,曼哈顿、陆家嘴、国贸等。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">职能型城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:指的是教育、医疗、事业单位的就业人口比例高,一些中小城市,因为缺少有竞争力的产业,往往只能通过提供公共配套服务来聚集人口,所以市政府搬迁往往能左右城市的发展方向。</span></p></li></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以上,基本就是本次分享的核心内容,简单小结下。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过人口结构相关的数据,我们可以看出</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>同为一线城市的上海和深圳千差万别</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,一个是流量型、一个是增量型;一个要生活、一个要赚钱;一个是生产型、一个是服务型,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>看结构的意义远大于总量</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">基于此,我想说可以通过城市“人的底板”差异,即:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1.人的流动性:多少人来了?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.人的目的性:为何来到城市?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.人的行为性:从事什么工作?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这三个本源问题去阐述城市及客群差异,更好地理解不同类型的城市。</span></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section></section><p><br style="white-space: normal;" /></p><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong style="outline: 0px;"><span style="outline: 0px;line-height: 17.1px;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 15px;font-family: 华文楷体;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">· 感谢观看 ·</span></span></strong></section><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="90%" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;outline: 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