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后疫情时代,哪些城市更值得投资 转载

发布于 2020-08-11

<section style="margin-bottom: -10px;white-space: normal;text-align: right;line-height: 25.6px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-id="32216" data-tools="小蚂蚁编辑器" powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding: 4px;max-width: 100%;outline: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.498) dashed 1px;min-height: 30px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="margin-top: 3px;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;width: 482.156px;background-color: rgb(242, 238, 231);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;width: 482.156px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 482.156px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="271" data-backw="482" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="482" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="241" data-ratio="0.5625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNaJqDicHicyEiakcVicz2OfibDYic9FxfmymHNAh3ndyoojKvXDvibS5KsXmSA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto;" title="图1.jpg" /></span></p><section style="max-width: 100%;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="margin-top: 20px;margin-right: 19.2756px;margin-left: 19.2756px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;width: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="1.17" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yRwaXtsicicUpbQiaU1Rx6Vhne3o1EKdibSslPJyMhjo8HQiadxbFzFVOF8ic6kYaGcSBWWqjqk5KGLxEPTAHA66tO7g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="900" title="“.png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 20px !important;" /></span></section><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="padding-right: 8.85938px;padding-left: 8.85938px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="margin-right: 8.51562px;margin-left: 8.51562px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 26px;text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2017年-2020年的楼市表明,对房地产开发商而言,这几年是风控大年和投资大年,开发商一方面需要做好风险控制,另一方面也要把握周期波动带来的低位投资机会,为后续发展夯实基础。</span></span></section></section></section><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="max-width: 100%;width: 20px;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.7894736842105263" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yRwaXtsicicUpbQiaU1Rx6Vhne3o1EKdibSslzl4dRQB7o29Tkmib3HRRpYpCVZK2zRermr0sHaf60iarpyL1JvYkz4w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="57" title="”.png" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 20px !important;" /></span></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 20px;margin-right: 28.9205px;margin-left: 33.75px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;width: 1px;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.1485148514851485" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yRwaXtsicicUqhI9zQm755GRT0IpmucFlJdxn6mACI1aPKvkjkPDibuTiay4obUez7gbp7q7jHiagT04XIdP8ghWWPA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="303" title="矩形2.jpg" width="50%" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 1px !important;" /></span></section><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="cb424" style="margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;width: 201.641px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: auto;font-variant-numeric: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-stretch: normal;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 黑体, SimHei;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">作者:王加权&nbsp;</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: auto;font-variant-numeric: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-stretch: normal;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 黑体, SimHei;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">封图:东方IC</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 黑体, SimHei;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: auto;font-variant-numeric: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-stretch: normal;line-height: 22px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section><section style="max-width: 100%;width: 201.641px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xmyeditor.com" data-md5="8646c" style="max-width: 100%;width: 482.145px;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 482.145px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.7894736842105263" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yRwaXtsicicUqhI9zQm755GRT0IpmucFlJibzs3fCDkwnpz251OYzyibvkicNj0xVKfQZmfBrYbGvhKD6hE0ARqGpvA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="57" title="边角2.png" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></span></section></section></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: -10px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section style="margin-bottom: 10px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong><strong><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.75;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: right;line-height: 25.6px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 18px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: -10px;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><hr style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392);transform-origin: 0px 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">著名经济学家哈里森研究了美国和英国上百年的房地产发展历史后,总结出18年左右周期论——7年缓慢上涨,5年加速上涨,2年疯狂上涨,4年泡沫破裂。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">回顾2000年以来中国商品房市场的发展,减去2007年-2008年和2013年-2014年的两次调控,7年起步增长期、5年加速增长期、2年繁荣增长期复合增长率分别为33.6%、26.6%和24.2%。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">2年的繁荣增长期,被称为“胜利者的诅咒”,因为随之而来的是4年左右的泡沫破裂期。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">2019年,中国商品房销售金额达到了空前绝后的15.97万亿,比2016年的11.76万亿高出35.8%,复合增长率为10.7%。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">2020年正好是哈里斯周期的第18年,过去3年房价依旧坚挺,是否意味着楼市能逃脱“胜利者的诅咒”呢?</span></strong><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.3987538940809969" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNOFbZFHRQXIWcichsy2C5cicupNGY4YJXc1f8Vf8xEwfdOcdQcXW2WPQA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="642" data-backw="546" data-backh="218" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">全国商品房销售额(万亿)</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">2017年-2020年的楼市表明,对房地产开发商而言,这几年是风控大年和投资大年,开发商一方面需要做好风险控制,另一方面也要把握周期波动带来的低位投资机会,为后续发展夯实基础。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">正如万科CEO郁亮所言,“我们跟农民是一样的,对农民来说,明明知道天气对收成影响很大,还是要把种好地当成第一位,而不是天气作为第一位。”</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">所以,尽管从周期上来看,中国房地产行业已经进入到高风险区间,突如其来的疫情无疑加剧了这种风险,但我们仍然希望回到房地产企业经营的本质——“现金流”和“内部收益率”,以专业的</span><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;"></span><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">精耕细作替代资本的野蛮生长,寻找一批优质房地产投资标的城市,平稳渡过高风险区。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: -10px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;font-size: 18px;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 85, 20);letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>城市分类</strong></span></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);text-align: justify;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">根据“人口、土地、资金”三维度,通过禾略研发的“城市综合得分计算模型”对288个地级市进行聚类,得到2020年全国城市能级聚类表。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">三线及以上城市共112个。二线及以上城市42个,强三线30个,三线40个,具体城市名单如下。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);text-align: justify;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><img border="0" data-ratio="0.5116666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNd8wCkKE15jVFKnT8s2Ga9aTU3uDn4PtzB84PEe0OIrRv1fb3jEjogg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="margin-bottom: 30px;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;font-family: 寰蒋闆呴粦;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="514" data-backh="263" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">2020年全国三线及以上城市能级聚类</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 85, 20);letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>现金流</strong></span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">“现金流”取决于市场规模,而市场规模扩大的基础来自于人口增量。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">我们整理了全国所有城市2000-2020年21年间的人口数据,并通过数学建模对各城市未来5年人口发展趋势(2020年-2025年)进行预测。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">按照未来五年人口增长情况(2020年-2025年),统一将增长10万人以上归为大幅增加,增长10万人以内归为小幅增加,人口减少10万人以内归为小幅减少,减少超过10万则为大幅减少。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong style="color: rgb(185, 85, 20);letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>二线及以上城市</strong></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong style="color: rgb(185, 85, 20);letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><img border="0" data-ratio="1.2433333333333334" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNOQgicZZXF1no4QnKUW6eNPvx7OibdrJqWOCasODQGNbrCfhgej8GDYqQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="margin-bottom: 30px;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;font-family: 寰蒋闆呴粦;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="514" data-backh="639" /></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">二线及以上城市未来五年人口增量预测(2020年-2025年)</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">人口增量的变化为未来五年人口增长预测数(2020年-2025年)和过去五年人口增长数(2015年-2020年)之差,正值且差值大,说明人口聚集越来越快,负值说明人口聚集速度下降但人口不一定流出,下同。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">总体来说,过去几年,全国各大城市房价基本都经历了一轮大幅上涨,使得二线及以上城市人口持续聚集出现分化,23城持续聚集,17城不再持续聚集,但聚集速度普遍呈现下降趋势。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">珠三角四大核心城市广州、深圳、佛山、东莞,山东青岛、济南、烟台,福建福州、厦门,中部强省会武汉、郑州,以及云南省会昆明人口继续大幅增加;东北4大城市沈阳、哈尔滨、长春、大连,京津沪和南通人口将大幅减少。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;">强三线城市</strong><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img border="0" data-ratio="1.045" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNoED1NScnl2oVTTupZvd8m4f5wj3HtIqDYZYhrIrfRcFtIadThia9zfA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="margin-bottom: 30px;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;font-family: 寰蒋闆呴粦;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="546" data-backh="571" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">强三线城市未来五年人口增量预测(2020年-2025年)</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">强三线30城中,18城人口持续聚集,12城人口减少。即未来五年</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">(2020年-2025年),人口继续增加和减少的强三线城市将呈现六四开的局面。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">除泰州和盐城大幅减少外,其他三类城市数量分布比较均匀,其中人口大幅增加的城市集中于东部沿海及中部的洛阳和襄阳。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">三线城市</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><img border="0" data-ratio="1.4466666666666668" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNS3nGGBkKibMEiaF3XicjGLOzywwQ4ruqsILP5hsRNUo8KJQBmibaErZJZw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="margin-bottom: 30px;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;font-family: 寰蒋闆呴粦;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="514" data-backh="744" /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">三线城市未来五年人口增量预测(2020年-2025年)</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">三线城市40城中,29城人口持续聚集,11城人口减少。即未来五年(2020年-2025年),大约3/4的三线城市人口将继续增加。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">大幅增加的10个城市集中于山东及中部人口大市南阳,还有西部的遵义;大幅减少的则为东北城市吉林。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">小结</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><img border="0" data-ratio="0.5616666666666666" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNWbVhcQtc0DkjATLP5scjO9ukJXfc56avicWiaMnnic4OL3ib5qhsm6oo0Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="margin-bottom: 30px;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;font-family: 寰蒋闆呴粦;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="514" data-backh="289" /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">过去5年VS未来5年人口增长</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">三线及以上112城中,人口支撑力强的城市有49个,占比43.8%,多集中于沿海发达地区以及中西部强省会。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">人口支撑力弱的城市有9个,占比8%,其中东三省占据5个,即东三省人口仍将持续外流趋势。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">内部收益率</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">“内部收益率”的提升取决于两大因素,一是城市土地稀缺性,供不应求的城市,房地产开发的周转率更高;二是房价泡沫风险,房价合理且未来上升空间大的城市,房地产开发的利润率更高。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">城市土地稀缺性</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">我们采集了全国所有城市网格颗粒度的交通通达性、生活配套和产业发展数据,通过算法模型得到全国网格成熟度,将土地成熟度分为五类,从红到绿成熟度依次递减。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">我们认为,第一类到第二类土地为城市的核心区,第三类到第四类土地为城市的拓展区,第五类则基本为非建设用地,超出了我们通常认为的城区范围。即核心区为城市已建设的区域,拓展区为建设中的区域,第五类则为囿于城市地形地貌和相关政策约束而不属于城市建设用地的山河湖海、耕地等。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">因此,我们计算核心区占城区的比例,即第一二类土地在第一二三四类土地中所占比例,来衡量各城市的土地稀缺性,占比越高,则土地越稀缺。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><img border="0" data-ratio="0.8283333333333334" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNJbtpLWlTc3tgag9zwBGAibgquvSf0Qs2xB8xITcpF0Eibeeh8eSyhCBg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" data-backw="514" data-backh="425" style="margin-bottom: 30px;text-align: center;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;font-family: 寰蒋闆呴粦;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);width: 100%;height: auto;" /><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">上海城市建设</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: 15px;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;font-family: 寰蒋闆呴粦;font-size: medium;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><img border="0" data-ratio="0.8266666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNwEyGqHbM8eglInkg5TlggkAGbOl2RohiaYGtdVTn1ztQiajpBxVBjQTg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" data-backw="546" data-backh="451" style="margin-bottom: 30px;outline: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);user-select: text;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">深圳城市建设</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="453" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.83" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgN3QESz02Zb3lOySmoC1Jzh2mibxnwaLoJSgQH6uuPhFqCM4b6ZqibthFA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">北京城市建设</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="454" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.8316666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNqlMGohyFsLl26FlTZvRGK70SArkKicE7ng4Yy6SxghXOiajlLYnnx8Lw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">成都城市建设</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.8283333333333334" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNpnLH8XkjXmocibGF5WoKdGicnwu9IRzxO2nlQIAglQMy88ERicPeBIGOQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" data-backw="546" data-backh="452" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">洛阳城市建设</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="452" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.8283333333333334" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNDR8z0bA1ChehDRW4JFcmztpK5uUgqJTOse5uQCFrFSPlozDBL50dMQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">宜昌城市建设</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;">按照上述算法说明,我们分别计算了三线以上城市的土地稀缺性。并划分标准,核心区占城区比例超过40%则为高,20%-40%则</span><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;">为中,小于20%则为低。</span><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">二线及以上城市</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="1.9406631762652704" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5S2cpibgkdRL7cpIB2TT3OVejkOYhlZbHDmcAHHmG5Ll9hjicxvyGvYSibw6P3ccXPR1Sev7L3JcpKg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="573" /><span style="background-color: white;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">二线及以上城市2020</span><span style="background-color: white;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">年核心区占比现状</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;"></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;">42城中,只有烟台和徐州2座城市核心区占比低于20%,其他40城核心区占比均在20%以上,像北上广深这样的顶级城市核心区占比均在40%以上,可以看出,核心区占比高的城市均为我国头部城市,也是我国土地稀缺性高的城市。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">强三线城市</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="1.4757462686567164" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5S2cpibgkdRL7cpIB2TT3OVQkd8rmiciakRbWnyUt6QZ08oaWCc2CYzGyiaSal3Mt7E2DbkBemAF3Fibg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="536" /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: white;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">强三线城市2020年核心区占比现状</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;">30城中,只有海口核心区占比高,金华、中山等8城核心区占比中,其余21城核心区占比均为低。即强三线城市土地稀缺性普遍不高,城区范围内还有较大的拓展区有待建设。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">三线城市</strong></span><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="1016" data-backw="546" data-ratio="1.8633333333333333" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNahiaIVWJGlYHVHdmCuJWkoH7sZoEBicT1h1ZOPZPNTsk6oiaGoZPx5ahQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">三线城市2020年核心区占比现状</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">40城中,三亚和拉萨核心区占比高,舟山、柳州、莆田、西宁核心区占比中,其余34城核心区占比均为低。可见下沉到三线城市后,除了个别特例,土地稀缺性普遍较低,城市存在大量有待开发的建设用地。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">了解各城市土地稀缺性的现状后,我们不禁好奇未来这种稀缺性会是怎样的走势。我们利用元胞机,进一步建模分析各城市未来核心区扩张情况。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">元胞机是利用过去若干年份的人造地表数据,利用历年建筑数据,通过算法补全过往一段时期内所有年份人造地表数据,从中提取变化特征,考虑山体、水体、道路等约束条件,结合城市用地规划,预测未来人造地表扩张情况,我们选取2023年结果进行分析。计算2023年核心区占城区比例,并标明相对2020年的变化情况。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">二线及以上城市</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="1024" data-backw="546" data-ratio="1.8766666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNdGDcQT8b2tLaC0qLHtdvoKSBmr0aaibonmZL3p9EWTtJBCqt4g8pibKw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">二线及以上城市未来核心区占比变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">42城中,未来三年(2020年-2023年)核心区占城区比例变大和不变的城市分别为20座和22座,各占将近一半,核心区占比变大的城市建设迅猛。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">强三线城市</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="786" data-backw="546" data-ratio="1.4416666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNhIzRmRe41kRMEL0w8XgscWdeKT7TRxABdicddH0MNcwxbt9soaqI2icQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">强三线城市未来核心区占比变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">30城中,未来三年(2020年-2023年)核心区占城区比例变大和不变的城市分别为14座和16座,依然各占将近一半。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">三线城市</strong></span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="786" data-backw="546" data-ratio="1.4416666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNhIzRmRe41kRMEL0w8XgscWdeKT7TRxABdicddH0MNcwxbt9soaqI2icQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">三线城市未来核心区占比变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">40城中,未来三年(2020年-2023年)核心区占城区比例变大和不变的城市分别为13座和27座,即下沉到三线城市后,城市建设明显变慢。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">小结</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="305" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.56" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNKAKhSIZZ4wdnKHgqib6hywX9l2aAlicFk4bWXHzC9dAa42EDcQ0v84xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">核心区占比现状VS未来变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">三线及以上112城中,核心区占比现状高、且未来占比变大的只有深圳、厦门、西安、武汉和济南5座城市。这类城市土地稀缺性高,但建设力强,属于百尺竿头,更进一步,在楼市属于打造高端和改善,追求利润型。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">现状占比低、且未来占比不变的城市有赣州、江门等33个,占比29.5%。这类城市土地稀缺性不高,且未来三年变化(2020年-2023年)不大,城市建设支撑力弱,基本可以放弃。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">房价泡沫风险</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">房价泡沫风险方面,业内普遍采用房价收入比来衡量,虽然不无道理,但是每个城市都有自己的特殊性,比如北京、上海、深圳这种超一线城市,房价收入比一直都很高,我们可以据此直接下结论这种城市房价泡沫大吗?这显然与它们房价依然持续上涨的事实相矛盾。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">因此,我们认为,采用一段时期内的房价收入增速比指标,可以更恰当地衡量在这个时间周期内,城市的房价泡沫情况。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">我们整理了全国各城市2014-2019年房价及城镇人均可支配收入数据,分别算出这两个指标的复合增长率,最后得出房价收入增速比,以此来衡量城市房价泡沫情况。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">按照上述算法说明,我们分别计算了三线以上城市的房价泡沫。并划定收入增速比小于1为无泡沫,大于2为严重泡沫,在1到2之间为一般泡沫。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">二线及以上城市</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="259" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.475" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNB3Y8YF5kRFRia7QyGiaAGjdDArafkorccEkMhNibVXuygnut5YMlh1eUA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">二线及以上城市2014-2019年房价收入增速比</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">42城中,西安和深圳2城泡沫严重,房价短期内已遭遇天花板瓶颈,需要通过未来产业升级、提高居民收入来消化。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">苏锡常等29城为一般泡沫,市场将从刚需为主转向刚需、改善并重。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">乌鲁木齐、温州、绍兴等11城无泡沫。这些城市除东三省4大城市外,多为沿海城市或内地省会城市,市场机会很好。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">强三线城市</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="257" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.4716666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNK4ibF9bdupR8ECEBPBNyZ0Os5SAbJauIy1LBQibVeianZ4CSAamKB6pLw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">强三线城市2014-2019年房价收入增速比</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">强三线30城中,临沂房价泡沫已经非常严重(4.55)。临沂是山东人口大市,2019年常住人口达1062.4万,城镇化率只有51.5%,未来房价的支撑需要靠城镇化和工业化,将农业人口导入城镇,提高居民收入。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">剩下的城市中,唐山、洛阳等19城为一般泡沫,优质地块还有一定的机会。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">东营、银川等10城无泡沫。未来房价还有一定的上涨空间,市场机会较好。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">三线城市</strong></span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="262" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.48" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgN7mCTyIbCaEreRGyibuAQCqv7vIiaxicx0N9d7RYibliaAqGqIic8XiaAUiaicEw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">三线城市2014-2019年房价收入增速比</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">三线40城中,德州房价泡沫已经非常严重,枣庄和滨州也有严重泡沫。山东这3个城市,城镇化率均低于60%,未来房价支撑依然靠城镇化和工业化,其中,德州和滨州紧邻济南,还面临着被济南吸虹的问题。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">泰安、南阳等11城为一般泡沫,这些城市同样需要把握优质地块。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">剩下的26城无泡沫,未来若有人口支撑,将是很好的投资机会。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">小结</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="297" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.545" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNshMaHKWTglvWbJsvNBibVY5yxic2WfnO6dN3QanTibeicic6zrI0eIYowvA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">三线及以上城市房价泡沫占比</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">整体来说,三线及以上112城中,房价以一般泡沫为主,占比达53%,投资需看准优质地块,可谨慎进入;泡沫严重的不多,仅占5%,分别为西安、深圳、临沂、德州、枣庄和滨州,应慎重考虑;剩下的无泡沫城市占42%,一般来说,将有很好的投资机会,可积极进入。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;">结论</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(185, 85, 20);font-size: 18px;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="306" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5616666666666666" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNWbVhcQtc0DkjATLP5scjO9ukJXfc56avicWiaMnnic4OL3ib5qhsm6oo0Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">市场规模支撑矩阵</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="305" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.56" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNKAKhSIZZ4wdnKHgqib6hywX9l2aAlicFk4bWXHzC9dAa42EDcQ0v84xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">城市土地建设支撑力矩阵</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">我们认为,人口支撑力矩阵中,强和较强类型是值得优先选择的城市;而土地建设支撑力矩阵中,同样是强和较强类型值得优先选择,若城市核心区占比现状高,则投资以做大利润为主,否则以做大规模为主;</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">同时考虑到强三线和三线城市正处于城镇化快速推进阶段,将较弱类型纳入考虑范围,这类城市投资导向以做大规模为主;</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">结合房价泡沫风险,若泡沫严重,则应慎重考虑,若泡沫一般,则谨慎进入,若无泡沫,则积极进入。最后选出三类城市共43城,如下矩阵所示。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;">2020年已来,站在哈里森周期尾端,我们努力回归行业本质,以专业精神筛选目前地产周期内的优质城市,以不变应万变,至于是否能以此逃脱“胜利者的诅咒”,让我们拭目以待。</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="297" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.545" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/X0iaO5B69ibWwaMOcTmngQAGwf2y2ZMZgNib06fPYiaV7uB7kgck8BsxvsvMORLPONxmFu5T1mTOLVjg0HY3gCcNuQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(70, 70, 72);letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(214, 214, 214);">三线及以上城市投资矩阵</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);">(作者为禾略研究院研究员,本文仅代表作者观点,不代表经济观察网投资建议)</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(70, 70, 72);"><br /></span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;min-height: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">猜你想再看<br style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">城市:</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=191239418c15b0c6f395c843415da5fd&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028970ac64031955167bfde997cdc96375bfb3bce25b5076f1458e11be2be27&amp;token=217203186&amp;lang=zh_CN&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" 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href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">热点:</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485505&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=90a4482d0ec14f8a4d441f77c653806c&amp;chksm=97557265a022fb7385559a6648c54242c721582b3811ad664360ea1e6f562f0f62264852c20c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" data-itemshowtype="0" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">深圳土拍</a></span><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831957&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a889b497d60264ef90aea585e4d4556f&amp;chksm=83517bcab426f2dc5e2b3778bc8e8834b453c4eac98c490ebeb525c4a5b01093fe602418b8fb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">美国地产</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: 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none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">粤港澳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|<br style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;" 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100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">穿越熊市</a></span><span style="font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;<span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a 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