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啤酒与住房

发布于 2023-03-01

<section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 562px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.31179039301310046" data-s="300,640" 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0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 5px 15px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><section style="letter-spacing: -1px;text-align: right;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: -20px;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;z-index: 0;text-align: center;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 270.797px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">金融、消费依附于实体产业,制造业是一个城市的血液来源。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本文选取全国工业出品产量的视角看,不同工业产品的产能特征,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">看看哪类工业品的供给属性同住房最类似?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;">选择工业产品的原因,是他容易被我们熟知,日常见到的电子信息产值、商贸服务产值这种笼统的概念,对于大多数人而言,或多或少有些距离感。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;">具体而言,我们<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">选取16个国家统计局公布的主要工业品类</span></strong>。便于理解,按照上游能源—中游材料—下游生产的简单划分:</span></section></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上游能源(3类):煤、气、电;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">中游材料(4类):硫酸、乙烯、水泥、钢材;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">下游生产(9类):汽车、手机、笔记本、电冰箱、空调、洗衣机、电视机、啤酒、卷烟等。</span></section></li></ul><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">借助统计年鉴产量数据,我们有了以下一些可以探讨的问题:</span></section><section style="margin: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">全国来看,</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">典型工业品走势如何?</span></strong></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">哪些产品供给走强?</span></strong></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">哪个周期性波动大?</span></strong></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">对房地产行业住房供给可以有哪些启发?</span></strong></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0px;padding-right: 16px;padding-left: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="text-align: left;justify-content: flex-start;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;margin-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 19px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: center;width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 21px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(46, 65, 113);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;align-self: flex-end;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四个产品</strong></span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: perspective(0px);transform-style: flat;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center;transform: rotateX(180deg);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 5px;height: 5px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 227px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;">我们先选取一些典型熟知的行业工业产品,看看历史变化情况。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">『煤炭』</span></em></strong></span></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="291" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5332125603864735" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8KoInxMvsekZdpicJvTrad42dZzybCiczXqphJumyWV9LhHwFibkbmPl3Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1656" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">整体特征:<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">总量变化不大,周期性特征明显</strong></span></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">过去10年产能基本稳定在37-45亿吨之间,煤炭能源供给弹性系数较小;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2012-2016年时是产能下行期,2016-2022年是上行期,这里有个非常有意思的现象,即国家2016年发布去产能政策后,反而出现产量上行。</span></section></li></ul><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="margin: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"></span></em></strong></span><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 20px;"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">『汽车』</span></em></strong></p><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">整体特征:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">稳定增长→持续萎缩→结构演变</span></strong></span></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="291" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.532404603270745" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8x3M19icyR4EvicvNb7xQKsSLByO2lcocaDKKw3eIjQmdFYgbwDVww4mw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1651" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从2011年的1842万辆到2017年2902万辆,是个稳定增长的周期,平均年增长率为<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">5.63%</span></strong>;</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从2018年开始,我国汽车产量其实已处于快速下滑阶段,即使2022年仍比2017年少<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">200万辆</span></strong>;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2019年以来,最大的变化在于新能源汽车的从渗透率<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">4.06%增加到31.85%</span></strong>,而政策发力始于2015年,领先市场5-6年。</span></p><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section></li></ul><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="margin: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;"><em><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></em></span><strong style="font-size: 20px;white-space: normal;"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">『家电』</span></em></strong><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></p><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">大家感觉是两个高度同频需求的电器,呈现出不一样的走势:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">一稳一涨</span></strong></span></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="250" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.45814072932717" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8W62O3eOeIIbibAqbugES0y6ucP9ZmAWLRiaK4nHERREtic59kyeI18FIg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1947" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none;">2011年,冰箱的产量是洗衣机的1.3倍,2022年被反超,少卖442万台;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp;洗衣机最近5年呈现稳定的增长态势,完全不受疫情影响,增长了25.4%,脑海中的夕阳行业不夕阳。</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;">而冰箱并没有出现大家认为的受疫情影响,储物需求增加。</span></section><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li></ul><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin: 16px;"><em style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"></span></em><strong style="font-size: 20px;white-space: normal;"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">『烟酒』</span></em></strong><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">许多人的日常必备,烟或许受到国家控制,针对酒行业最大的感悟是:<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">收缩也有巨大收益</strong></span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="253" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.4616966580976864" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8kicL6DFTlQy16GMVDSAnX8clfKZPeYz7h3l1XURjnnCo69xvVJQud8g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1945" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从绝对产量来说,酒最近3年处于10年低位,相对10年前,平均产量只有<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">72%</span></strong>,规模收缩非常明显。</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从效益来说,拿上市公司来说,呈现集体型上扬趋势,白酒指数从2019年的4000点到目前的17000点,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">上涨超4倍</strong></span>,α收益惊人,茅台的毛利多年维持在90%。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section></li></ul><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;margin-bottom: 0px;text-align: left;white-space: normal;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="font-size: 19px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: center;width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;font-size: 21px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-align: left;white-space: normal;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(46, 65, 113);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;align-self: flex-end;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三个周期</strong></span></p></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-top: 4px;margin-bottom: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(37, 105, 117);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-align: left;white-space: normal;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="transform: perspective(0px);transform-style: flat;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;transform: rotateX(180deg);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 5px;height: 5px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 227px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体我们可以细分为1年短周期、3-5年中周期、10年长周期,看不同行业的增长情况:</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;"><em><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1年短周期</strong></span></em></span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">:上游<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">原煤、天然气</span></strong>表现突出,下游<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">电视机、洗衣机</span></strong>出人意外的还不错;中游<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">水泥</strong></span>受地产影响拖累,下游<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">笔记本、手机</span></strong>电子消费下行明显。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="310" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5672930421533774" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU860Y5sC51dlf4PjQV4o1MHnfIDQR5oCAZxR1W2PI3chxSur1G4ibiadMQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1969" style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3-5年中周期</strong></span></em><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;">:恰逢3年以前,我们转换个视角,疫情前(18-19)PK疫情后(21-22),看看<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">哪些行业及产品受疫情冲击大?</span></strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="321" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5882048629073978" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8qZ80yKKrZOIfTEU5anZRKbnMRd8omagDib6zpYGy7BYeLxXPTy2mWRQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1933" style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">乙烯</strong></span>是石油化工最基本原料之一,受上游能源冲击的影响,产量大幅上升;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">笔记本</strong></span>大概率疫情冲击后,居家办公等需求导致配置需求上升;</span><span style="font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;"></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;"></span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">手机</strong></span>从追求时尚回归到实用,收入下降的直接影响大,换机年份从1年到2年;</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">啤酒</strong></span>也出现小幅下降,并没有大规模的深夜买醉,也是节制消费。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li></ul><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="margin: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">再来,我们用</span><span style="font-size: 18px;"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">10年周期看行业趋势</strong></span></em></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:</span></p><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">暂不考虑周期变化,10年平均增速情况进行对比:</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="319" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5832120329936924" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8FPh8uEayGiaboFuDXAmiavwnuh9rPddqONNBI2fBrLczPBUzibOyiaicf9A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2061" style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">天然气/电力</strong></span>是我们熟知的能源,没想到产能扩张最快,受益于新旧能源转换;</span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">手机/汽车</strong></span>基本维持在中低增速,但都有一轮结构演变,从功能机到智能机等;</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">啤酒/卷烟</strong></span>等传统消费品,容量不增长,但效益依然喜人。</span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span><br /></p><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="text-align: left;justify-content: flex-start;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;margin-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 19px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: center;width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 21px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></span></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(46, 65, 113);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;align-self: flex-end;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">两个属性</strong></span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 4px;margin-bottom: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="background-color: rgb(37, 105, 117);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: perspective(0px);transform-style: flat;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center;transform: rotateX(180deg);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 5px;height: 5px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 227px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们用<strong>离散系数</strong>来反映<strong>年度波动情况</strong>,可以简单理解为同比的波动率,叠加长周期的增长率,可以得知<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">不同行业产品的产能属性</span></strong>:</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="327" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5993051534452808" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8aTcjLd0SL9Fy6dex8n4YpER2TSWt0Yoa5hVAiaAiclHSeN52HOs3g5vw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1727" style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">高增长*波动大</span></strong>:天然气、空调、电视机等</span><span style="font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;"></span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中增长*波动中</strong></span>:手机、笔记本、汽车等</span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">中增长*波动小</span></strong>:洗衣机等</span><span style="font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;"></span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">低增长*波动中</span></strong>:啤酒等</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 17px;"></span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">低增长*波动小</span></strong>:原煤、水泥、卷烟等</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></section></li></ul><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="margin: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">问题来了,过去10年的住房供给属性,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">更类似于哪个商品?是否可以对标研判?</strong></span></span></p><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们以过去10年的新开工面积来计算:</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2011-2013累计新开工面积为42.3亿平,2019-2022年为39.9亿平。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">跟大家日常感受不同,都以为过去10年是住房市场大爆发的年份,其实主要是M2推动的货币价格效益,从供给总容量来说变化不大。</span><br /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="321" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5892857142857143" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8nVkMdfO1tYVUyPdib6PwP0UfK1kW5rKuF1HhYcq1OOYo1QpHtGDZ5Kw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1904" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">成长低</span></strong>:年均下降-0.59%,类似卷烟、电冰箱、水泥、啤酒,产能几乎10年没变化。</span><span style="font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;"></span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">波动中</strong></span>:年均波动率为14.43%,类似手机、笔记本、啤酒、汽车,维持中等波动。</span></p><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section></li></ul><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,从产品供给属性来说,类似大众消费品:</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 20px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">啤酒</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="text-align: left;justify-content: flex-start;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;margin-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 19px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: center;width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 21px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(46, 65, 113);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;align-self: flex-end;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一个对标</strong></span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 4px;margin-bottom: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="background-color: rgb(37, 105, 117);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: perspective(0px);transform-style: flat;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center;transform: rotateX(180deg);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 5px;height: 5px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 227px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">我</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">们可以看看百年行业啤酒的最终现存者及其特征</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">:</span></span><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">下表是部分啤酒上市企业名录:</span></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 16px 16px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="59" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.10768261964735516" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU8qoJnP4WP5q0rNWYdAtcfyN8E5rAJrt734u3QZeXLeXibob3Sh8qiaa1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1588" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" /></section></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">地域属性强</span></strong>:并不会出现,大鱼吃小鱼,头部房企市场占有率持续走高,相反会产生多个地域化品牌,类似当下的城投公司。</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span></p></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;margin: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.571875" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyB7H7mn59Kat87CicjGmWQmELdorATNaMVaBBgIGwtRwZJzu0pvzvzFQIa99p2rvU6QiaxsSR4ABDg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">品类丰富多元</span></strong>:按照工艺分&nbsp;纯生啤酒、黑啤酒、干啤酒等&nbsp;,当下房地下类似只有按原麦浓度分高、中、低,类同单价总价。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">啤酒的分类</span></p></li></ul><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: right;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="408" data-backw="557" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzuicjpf63fiaiasxFa9CVcLU82uNcuQOx7q6E4dEQwpGGhr6oYDcPgGf5ibWcaJNS8JJkYJTxVsD1zvA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="102.76481149012568" data-cropy2="791.0951526032317" data-ratio="0.6388888888888888" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyB7H7mn59Kat87CicjGmWQmUC8zqE57ibfaZINhFFdBuznT3HI6ohF2QyY98HGoic5WondbDqEVQbTA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;vertical-align: middle;width: 557px;box-sizing: border-box;height: 355px;" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">减量不减利</strong></span>:虽然行业整体容量在下降,2013年开始行业销量开始下降,但企业效益仍能保持稳定增长,如青岛啤酒,2017年净利14亿,2021年达到33亿,2022年前按三季度毛利近38%。</span></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section></li></ul><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="margin: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">适度延展,查阅了一下白酒的产能及效益特征,也有极其类似的属性:<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">地域性、品类分化、厚利控销等</strong></span>。</span></p><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">延展到地产行业,拉长历史周期,所谓的容量问题或许不重要,本质也是一个<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">基础+民生消费品</strong></span>。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">伴随人口总量及结构的变化而变化,最大的变化在于多元化产品的需求,<strong>从“一定要“到”可要可不要”</strong>,产品属性增强,其实跟喝酒一样,需要有场景、才喝得多、买得多。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,客户研究的核心<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">不是细分客户,而是细分产品,强化不同消费场景的产品细分</span></strong>,进而找到目标客群。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同样是茅台,既有月入2万的人喝,也有月入20万的人喝;既有公务员喝,也有老板喝;既可用于公司年会,也可朋友聚会,还可商务接待等。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同一个小区,<span style="font-size: 16px;">既</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">有月入2万的人住</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">也有月入20万的人住;</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">既</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">有公务员住</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,也有老板住;</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">既</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">可用于城市扎根</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">也可学区落户</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">还可保值增值、居家养老</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">等</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></span></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">具体啤酒/白酒行业有什么特征?我并不在行,喜欢喝酒的朋友可以留言。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 17.1px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">· 感谢观看 ·</span></strong></section><section data-role="outer" style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 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