官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

国产存储二龙PK:一个赚了20亿“炒股钱”,一个闷声赚芯片钱,谁才是下半年真赢家?

发布于 2026-07-22

<section data-tool="mdnice编辑器" data-website="https://www.mdnice.com" style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 10px;padding-right: 10px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;font-family: Optima, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, PingFangSC-regular, serif;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;word-spacing: 0em;letter-spacing: 0em;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;text-align: left;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><h1 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span leaf="">如果你最近关注半导体板块,一定对存储芯片的行情不陌生——随着全球半导体周期触底回升,国内两家存储赛道龙头兆易创新和北京君正的股价都走出了不错的行情,但很多普通投资者都在纠结:同是存储芯片,一只股价460多,一只150多,到底该选短线博弈还是长线拿住?</span></h1><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">今天这份深度对比,我们把原报告的量化分析、压力测试、估值推导全部梳理清楚,核心结论一点不掺水,看完你就知道适合自己的选择是什么。</span></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">一、开篇核心结论先给你:两类资金赚两类钱</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们锚定2026年7月19日的当前股价做分析(兆易创新463.15元、北京君正153.82元),整个分析基于当前半导体大周期上行的大背景,从财务质量、商业生态、压力测试、资金结构、估值定价五个维度做了全穿透,核心结论一句话就能说清:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">**兆易创新现在站在通用存储高弹性+金融投资收益的共振景气顶,近五年估值百分位已经摸到高位,短期弹性拉满,但财务里掺了不少“非主业水分”,周期顶的波动风险很大,更适合短线资金博弈;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">**北京君正靠车规、工控利基存储提价支撑业绩,财务透明度远好于市场预期,估值只是偏高位置,护城河深、财务质量硬,更适合中长线稳健配置。</span></section></li></ul><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">这里先给大家点出一个市场没太注意的预期差:兆易创新这一期的利润高增长,很大一部分是靠高比例的金融资产公允价值抬起来的,非经常性损益规模很大,刚好在周期顶部,一旦市场波动,很容易引发估值和业绩的双杀;而北京君正的扣非净利润占比极高,利润几乎全来自主业芯片销售,“盈余清澈度”远超市场预期。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">接下来我们一步步拆解对比的细节,普通投资者也能看懂这些专业分析到底在说什么。</span></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">二、第一关:先扒财务质量,看看利润到底“水不水”</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">分析任何股票,第一关一定是看财务有没有水分——很多公司周期上行期看起来利润暴涨,其实很多是一次性收益,不是主业赚的钱,我们这里用了三个专业指标来拆解:应计利润率、真实核心利润、M-Score盈余管理排查,帮你把两家的利润底子看清楚。</span></p><h3 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;display: block;"><span leaf="">核心公式先给大家(看不懂没关系,后面直接看结论):</span></span></h3><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">应计利润率是用来衡量利润和实际现金流的背离程度,公式是:</span><span style="cursor:pointer;" data-formula="Accruals\_Ratio=\frac{Net\_Income-CFO}{Total\_Assets}"><span data-formula="Accruals\_Ratio=\frac{Net\_Income-CFO}{Total\_Assets}"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" role="img" focusable="false" viewbox="0 -896.5 14790.6 1286.6" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.883ex;width: 33.463ex;height: 2.911ex;"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g data-mml-node="math"><g data-mml-node="mi"><path data-c="41" d="M208 74Q208 50 254 46Q272 46 272 35Q272 34 270 22Q267 8 264 4T251 0Q249 0 239 0T205 1T141 2Q70 2 50 0H42Q35 7 35 11Q37 38 48 46H62Q132 49 164 96Q170 102 345 401T523 704Q530 716 547 716H555H572Q578 707 578 706L606 383Q634 60 636 57Q641 46 701 46Q726 46 726 36Q726 34 723 22Q720 7 718 4T704 0Q701 0 690 0T651 1T578 2Q484 2 455 0H443Q437 6 437 9T439 27Q443 40 445 43L449 46H469Q523 49 533 63L521 213H283L249 155Q208 86 208 74ZM516 260Q516 271 504 416T490 562L463 519Q447 492 400 412L310 260L413 259Q516 259 516 260Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(750, 0)"><path data-c="63" d="M34 159Q34 268 120 355T306 442Q362 442 394 418T427 355Q427 326 408 306T360 285Q341 285 330 295T319 325T330 359T352 380T366 386H367Q367 388 361 392T340 400T306 404Q276 404 249 390Q228 381 206 359Q162 315 142 235T121 119Q121 73 147 50Q169 26 205 26H209Q321 26 394 111Q403 121 406 121Q410 121 419 112T429 98T420 83T391 55T346 25T282 0T202 -11Q127 -11 81 37T34 159Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(1183, 0)"><path data-c="63" d="M34 159Q34 268 120 355T306 442Q362 442 394 418T427 355Q427 326 408 306T360 285Q341 285 330 295T319 325T330 359T352 380T366 386H367Q367 388 361 392T340 400T306 404Q276 404 249 390Q228 381 206 359Q162 315 142 235T121 119Q121 73 147 50Q169 26 205 26H209Q321 26 394 111Q403 121 406 121Q410 121 419 112T429 98T420 83T391 55T346 25T282 0T202 -11Q127 -11 81 37T34 159Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(1616, 0)"><path data-c="72" d="M21 287Q22 290 23 295T28 317T38 348T53 381T73 411T99 433T132 442Q161 442 183 430T214 408T225 388Q227 382 228 382T236 389Q284 441 347 441H350Q398 441 422 400Q430 381 430 363Q430 333 417 315T391 292T366 288Q346 288 334 299T322 328Q322 376 378 392Q356 405 342 405Q286 405 239 331Q229 315 224 298T190 165Q156 25 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 114 189T154 366Q154 405 128 405Q107 405 92 377T68 316T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(2067, 0)"><path data-c="75" d="M21 287Q21 295 30 318T55 370T99 420T158 442Q204 442 227 417T250 358Q250 340 216 246T182 105Q182 62 196 45T238 27T291 44T328 78L339 95Q341 99 377 247Q407 367 413 387T427 416Q444 431 463 431Q480 431 488 421T496 402L420 84Q419 79 419 68Q419 43 426 35T447 26Q469 29 482 57T512 145Q514 153 532 153Q551 153 551 144Q550 139 549 130T540 98T523 55T498 17T462 -8Q454 -10 438 -10Q372 -10 347 46Q345 45 336 36T318 21T296 6T267 -6T233 -11Q189 -11 155 7Q103 38 103 113Q103 170 138 262T173 379Q173 380 173 381Q173 390 173 393T169 400T158 404H154Q131 404 112 385T82 344T65 302T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(2639, 0)"><path data-c="61" d="M33 157Q33 258 109 349T280 441Q331 441 370 392Q386 422 416 422Q429 422 439 414T449 394Q449 381 412 234T374 68Q374 43 381 35T402 26Q411 27 422 35Q443 55 463 131Q469 151 473 152Q475 153 483 153H487Q506 153 506 144Q506 138 501 117T481 63T449 13Q436 0 417 -8Q409 -10 393 -10Q359 -10 336 5T306 36L300 51Q299 52 296 50Q294 48 292 46Q233 -10 172 -10Q117 -10 75 30T33 157ZM351 328Q351 334 346 350T323 385T277 405Q242 405 210 374T160 293Q131 214 119 129Q119 126 119 118T118 106Q118 61 136 44T179 26Q217 26 254 59T298 110Q300 114 325 217T351 328Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(3168, 0)"><path data-c="6C" d="M117 59Q117 26 142 26Q179 26 205 131Q211 151 215 152Q217 153 225 153H229Q238 153 241 153T246 151T248 144Q247 138 245 128T234 90T214 43T183 6T137 -11Q101 -11 70 11T38 85Q38 97 39 102L104 360Q167 615 167 623Q167 626 166 628T162 632T157 634T149 635T141 636T132 637T122 637Q112 637 109 637T101 638T95 641T94 647Q94 649 96 661Q101 680 107 682T179 688Q194 689 213 690T243 693T254 694Q266 694 266 686Q266 675 193 386T118 83Q118 81 118 75T117 65V59Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(3466, 0)"><path data-c="73" d="M131 289Q131 321 147 354T203 415T300 442Q362 442 390 415T419 355Q419 323 402 308T364 292Q351 292 340 300T328 326Q328 342 337 354T354 372T367 378Q368 378 368 379Q368 382 361 388T336 399T297 405Q249 405 227 379T204 326Q204 301 223 291T278 274T330 259Q396 230 396 163Q396 135 385 107T352 51T289 7T195 -10Q118 -10 86 19T53 87Q53 126 74 143T118 160Q133 160 146 151T160 120Q160 94 142 76T111 58Q109 57 108 57T107 55Q108 52 115 47T146 34T201 27Q237 27 263 38T301 66T318 97T323 122Q323 150 302 164T254 181T195 196T148 231Q131 256 131 289Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(3935, 0)"><path data-c="5F" d="M0 -62V-25H499V-62H0Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(4435, 0)"><path data-c="52" d="M230 637Q203 637 198 638T193 649Q193 676 204 682Q206 683 378 683Q550 682 564 680Q620 672 658 652T712 606T733 563T739 529Q739 484 710 445T643 385T576 351T538 338L545 333Q612 295 612 223Q612 212 607 162T602 80V71Q602 53 603 43T614 25T640 16Q668 16 686 38T712 85Q717 99 720 102T735 105Q755 105 755 93Q755 75 731 36Q693 -21 641 -21H632Q571 -21 531 4T487 82Q487 109 502 166T517 239Q517 290 474 313Q459 320 449 321T378 323H309L277 193Q244 61 244 59Q244 55 245 54T252 50T269 48T302 46H333Q339 38 339 37T336 19Q332 6 326 0H311Q275 2 180 2Q146 2 117 2T71 2T50 1Q33 1 33 10Q33 12 36 24Q41 43 46 45Q50 46 61 46H67Q94 46 127 49Q141 52 146 61Q149 65 218 339T287 628Q287 635 230 637ZM630 554Q630 586 609 608T523 636Q521 636 500 636T462 637H440Q393 637 386 627Q385 624 352 494T319 361Q319 360 388 360Q466 361 492 367Q556 377 592 426Q608 449 619 486T630 554Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(5194, 0)"><path data-c="61" d="M33 157Q33 258 109 349T280 441Q331 441 370 392Q386 422 416 422Q429 422 439 414T449 394Q449 381 412 234T374 68Q374 43 381 35T402 26Q411 27 422 35Q443 55 463 131Q469 151 473 152Q475 153 483 153H487Q506 153 506 144Q506 138 501 117T481 63T449 13Q436 0 417 -8Q409 -10 393 -10Q359 -10 336 5T306 36L300 51Q299 52 296 50Q294 48 292 46Q233 -10 172 -10Q117 -10 75 30T33 157ZM351 328Q351 334 346 350T323 385T277 405Q242 405 210 374T160 293Q131 214 119 129Q119 126 119 118T118 106Q118 61 136 44T179 26Q217 26 254 59T298 110Q300 114 325 217T351 328Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(5723, 0)"><path data-c="74" d="M26 385Q19 392 19 395Q19 399 22 411T27 425Q29 430 36 430T87 431H140L159 511Q162 522 166 540T173 566T179 586T187 603T197 615T211 624T229 626Q247 625 254 615T261 596Q261 589 252 549T232 470L222 433Q222 431 272 431H323Q330 424 330 420Q330 398 317 385H210L174 240Q135 80 135 68Q135 26 162 26Q197 26 230 60T283 144Q285 150 288 151T303 153H307Q322 153 322 145Q322 142 319 133Q314 117 301 95T267 48T216 6T155 -11Q125 -11 98 4T59 56Q57 64 57 83V101L92 241Q127 382 128 383Q128 385 77 385H26Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(6084, 0)"><path data-c="69" d="M184 600Q184 624 203 642T247 661Q265 661 277 649T290 619Q290 596 270 577T226 557Q211 557 198 567T184 600ZM21 287Q21 295 30 318T54 369T98 420T158 442Q197 442 223 419T250 357Q250 340 236 301T196 196T154 83Q149 61 149 51Q149 26 166 26Q175 26 185 29T208 43T235 78T260 137Q263 149 265 151T282 153Q302 153 302 143Q302 135 293 112T268 61T223 11T161 -11Q129 -11 102 10T74 74Q74 91 79 106T122 220Q160 321 166 341T173 380Q173 404 156 404H154Q124 404 99 371T61 287Q60 286 59 284T58 281T56 279T53 278T49 278T41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(6429, 0)"><path data-c="6F" d="M201 -11Q126 -11 80 38T34 156Q34 221 64 279T146 380Q222 441 301 441Q333 441 341 440Q354 437 367 433T402 417T438 387T464 338T476 268Q476 161 390 75T201 -11ZM121 120Q121 70 147 48T206 26Q250 26 289 58T351 142Q360 163 374 216T388 308Q388 352 370 375Q346 405 306 405Q243 405 195 347Q158 303 140 230T121 120Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mo" transform="translate(7191.8, 0)"><path data-c="3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mfrac" transform="translate(8247.6, 0)"><g data-mml-node="mrow" transform="translate(220, 398) scale(0.707)"><g data-mml-node="mi"><path data-c="4E" d="M234 637Q231 637 226 637Q201 637 196 638T191 649Q191 676 202 682Q204 683 299 683Q376 683 387 683T401 677Q612 181 616 168L670 381Q723 592 723 606Q723 633 659 637Q635 637 635 648Q635 650 637 660Q641 676 643 679T653 683Q656 683 684 682T767 680Q817 680 843 681T873 682Q888 682 888 672Q888 650 880 642Q878 637 858 637Q787 633 769 597L620 7Q618 0 599 0Q585 0 582 2Q579 5 453 305L326 604L261 344Q196 88 196 79Q201 46 268 46H278Q284 41 284 38T282 19Q278 6 272 0H259Q228 2 151 2Q123 2 100 2T63 2T46 1Q31 1 31 10Q31 14 34 26T39 40Q41 46 62 46Q130 49 150 85Q154 91 221 362L289 634Q287 635 234 637Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(888, 0)"><path data-c="65" d="M39 168Q39 225 58 272T107 350T174 402T244 433T307 442H310Q355 442 388 420T421 355Q421 265 310 237Q261 224 176 223Q139 223 138 221Q138 219 132 186T125 128Q125 81 146 54T209 26T302 45T394 111Q403 121 406 121Q410 121 419 112T429 98T420 82T390 55T344 24T281 -1T205 -11Q126 -11 83 42T39 168ZM373 353Q367 405 305 405Q272 405 244 391T199 357T170 316T154 280T149 261Q149 260 169 260Q282 260 327 284T373 353Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(1354, 0)"><path data-c="74" d="M26 385Q19 392 19 395Q19 399 22 411T27 425Q29 430 36 430T87 431H140L159 511Q162 522 166 540T173 566T179 586T187 603T197 615T211 624T229 626Q247 625 254 615T261 596Q261 589 252 549T232 470L222 433Q222 431 272 431H323Q330 424 330 420Q330 398 317 385H210L174 240Q135 80 135 68Q135 26 162 26Q197 26 230 60T283 144Q285 150 288 151T303 153H307Q322 153 322 145Q322 142 319 133Q314 117 301 95T267 48T216 6T155 -11Q125 -11 98 4T59 56Q57 64 57 83V101L92 241Q127 382 128 383Q128 385 77 385H26Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(1715, 0)"><path data-c="5F" d="M0 -62V-25H499V-62H0Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(2215, 0)"><path data-c="49" d="M43 1Q26 1 26 10Q26 12 29 24Q34 43 39 45Q42 46 54 46H60Q120 46 136 53Q137 53 138 54Q143 56 149 77T198 273Q210 318 216 344Q286 624 286 626Q284 630 284 631Q274 637 213 637H193Q184 643 189 662Q193 677 195 680T209 683H213Q285 681 359 681Q481 681 487 683H497Q504 676 504 672T501 655T494 639Q491 637 471 637Q440 637 407 634Q393 631 388 623Q381 609 337 432Q326 385 315 341Q245 65 245 59Q245 52 255 50T307 46H339Q345 38 345 37T342 19Q338 6 332 0H316Q279 2 179 2Q143 2 113 2T65 2T43 1Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(2719, 0)"><path data-c="6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(3319, 0)"><path data-c="63" d="M34 159Q34 268 120 355T306 442Q362 442 394 418T427 355Q427 326 408 306T360 285Q341 285 330 295T319 325T330 359T352 380T366 386H367Q367 388 361 392T340 400T306 404Q276 404 249 390Q228 381 206 359Q162 315 142 235T121 119Q121 73 147 50Q169 26 205 26H209Q321 26 394 111Q403 121 406 121Q410 121 419 112T429 98T420 83T391 55T346 25T282 0T202 -11Q127 -11 81 37T34 159Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(3752, 0)"><path data-c="6F" d="M201 -11Q126 -11 80 38T34 156Q34 221 64 279T146 380Q222 441 301 441Q333 441 341 440Q354 437 367 433T402 417T438 387T464 338T476 268Q476 161 390 75T201 -11ZM121 120Q121 70 147 48T206 26Q250 26 289 58T351 142Q360 163 374 216T388 308Q388 352 370 375Q346 405 306 405Q243 405 195 347Q158 303 140 230T121 120Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(4237, 0)"><path data-c="6D" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T88 425T132 442T175 435T205 417T221 395T229 376L231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q303 442 384 442Q401 442 415 440T441 433T460 423T475 411T485 398T493 385T497 373T500 364T502 357L510 367Q573 442 659 442Q713 442 746 415T780 336Q780 285 742 178T704 50Q705 36 709 31T724 26Q752 26 776 56T815 138Q818 149 821 151T837 153Q857 153 857 145Q857 144 853 130Q845 101 831 73T785 17T716 -10Q669 -10 648 17T627 73Q627 92 663 193T700 345Q700 404 656 404H651Q565 404 506 303L499 291L466 157Q433 26 428 16Q415 -11 385 -11Q372 -11 364 -4T353 8T350 18Q350 29 384 161L420 307Q423 322 423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 181Q151 335 151 342Q154 357 154 369Q154 405 129 405Q107 405 92 377T69 316T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(5115, 0)"><path data-c="65" d="M39 168Q39 225 58 272T107 350T174 402T244 433T307 442H310Q355 442 388 420T421 355Q421 265 310 237Q261 224 176 223Q139 223 138 221Q138 219 132 186T125 128Q125 81 146 54T209 26T302 45T394 111Q403 121 406 121Q410 121 419 112T429 98T420 82T390 55T344 24T281 -1T205 -11Q126 -11 83 42T39 168ZM373 353Q367 405 305 405Q272 405 244 391T199 357T170 316T154 280T149 261Q149 260 169 260Q282 260 327 284T373 353Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mo" transform="translate(5581, 0)"><path data-c="2212" d="M84 237T84 250T98 270H679Q694 262 694 250T679 230H98Q84 237 84 250Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(6359, 0)"><path data-c="43" d="M50 252Q50 367 117 473T286 641T490 704Q580 704 633 653Q642 643 648 636T656 626L657 623Q660 623 684 649Q691 655 699 663T715 679T725 690L740 705H746Q760 705 760 698Q760 694 728 561Q692 422 692 421Q690 416 687 415T669 413H653Q647 419 647 422Q647 423 648 429T650 449T651 481Q651 552 619 605T510 659Q484 659 454 652T382 628T299 572T226 479Q194 422 175 346T156 222Q156 108 232 58Q280 24 350 24Q441 24 512 92T606 240Q610 253 612 255T628 257Q648 257 648 248Q648 243 647 239Q618 132 523 55T319 -22Q206 -22 128 53T50 252Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(7119, 0)"><path data-c="46" d="M48 1Q31 1 31 11Q31 13 34 25Q38 41 42 43T65 46Q92 46 125 49Q139 52 144 61Q146 66 215 342T285 622Q285 629 281 629Q273 632 228 634H197Q191 640 191 642T193 659Q197 676 203 680H742Q749 676 749 669Q749 664 736 557T722 447Q720 440 702 440H690Q683 445 683 453Q683 454 686 477T689 530Q689 560 682 579T663 610T626 626T575 633T503 634H480Q398 633 393 631Q388 629 386 623Q385 622 352 492L320 363H375Q378 363 398 363T426 364T448 367T472 374T489 386Q502 398 511 419T524 457T529 475Q532 480 548 480H560Q567 475 567 470Q567 467 536 339T502 207Q500 200 482 200H470Q463 206 463 212Q463 215 468 234T473 274Q473 303 453 310T364 317H309L277 190Q245 66 245 60Q245 46 334 46H359Q365 40 365 39T363 19Q359 6 353 0H336Q295 2 185 2Q120 2 86 2T48 1Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(7868, 0)"><path data-c="4F" d="M740 435Q740 320 676 213T511 42T304 -22Q207 -22 138 35T51 201Q50 209 50 244Q50 346 98 438T227 601Q351 704 476 704Q514 704 524 703Q621 689 680 617T740 435ZM637 476Q637 565 591 615T476 665Q396 665 322 605Q242 542 200 428T157 216Q157 126 200 73T314 19Q404 19 485 98T608 313Q637 408 637 476Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="mrow" transform="translate(1199.3, -346.3) scale(0.707)"><g data-mml-node="mi"><path data-c="54" d="M40 437Q21 437 21 445Q21 450 37 501T71 602L88 651Q93 669 101 677H569H659Q691 677 697 676T704 667Q704 661 687 553T668 444Q668 437 649 437Q640 437 637 437T631 442L629 445Q629 451 635 490T641 551Q641 586 628 604T573 629Q568 630 515 631Q469 631 457 630T439 622Q438 621 368 343T298 60Q298 48 386 46Q418 46 427 45T436 36Q436 31 433 22Q429 4 424 1L422 0Q419 0 415 0Q410 0 363 1T228 2Q99 2 64 0H49Q43 6 43 9T45 27Q49 40 55 46H83H94Q174 46 189 55Q190 56 191 56Q196 59 201 76T241 233Q258 301 269 344Q339 619 339 625Q339 630 310 630H279Q212 630 191 624Q146 614 121 583T67 467Q60 445 57 441T43 437H40Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(704, 0)"><path data-c="6F" d="M201 -11Q126 -11 80 38T34 156Q34 221 64 279T146 380Q222 441 301 441Q333 441 341 440Q354 437 367 433T402 417T438 387T464 338T476 268Q476 161 390 75T201 -11ZM121 120Q121 70 147 48T206 26Q250 26 289 58T351 142Q360 163 374 216T388 308Q388 352 370 375Q346 405 306 405Q243 405 195 347Q158 303 140 230T121 120Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(1189, 0)"><path data-c="74" d="M26 385Q19 392 19 395Q19 399 22 411T27 425Q29 430 36 430T87 431H140L159 511Q162 522 166 540T173 566T179 586T187 603T197 615T211 624T229 626Q247 625 254 615T261 596Q261 589 252 549T232 470L222 433Q222 431 272 431H323Q330 424 330 420Q330 398 317 385H210L174 240Q135 80 135 68Q135 26 162 26Q197 26 230 60T283 144Q285 150 288 151T303 153H307Q322 153 322 145Q322 142 319 133Q314 117 301 95T267 48T216 6T155 -11Q125 -11 98 4T59 56Q57 64 57 83V101L92 241Q127 382 128 383Q128 385 77 385H26Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(1550, 0)"><path data-c="61" d="M33 157Q33 258 109 349T280 441Q331 441 370 392Q386 422 416 422Q429 422 439 414T449 394Q449 381 412 234T374 68Q374 43 381 35T402 26Q411 27 422 35Q443 55 463 131Q469 151 473 152Q475 153 483 153H487Q506 153 506 144Q506 138 501 117T481 63T449 13Q436 0 417 -8Q409 -10 393 -10Q359 -10 336 5T306 36L300 51Q299 52 296 50Q294 48 292 46Q233 -10 172 -10Q117 -10 75 30T33 157ZM351 328Q351 334 346 350T323 385T277 405Q242 405 210 374T160 293Q131 214 119 129Q119 126 119 118T118 106Q118 61 136 44T179 26Q217 26 254 59T298 110Q300 114 325 217T351 328Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(2079, 0)"><path data-c="6C" d="M117 59Q117 26 142 26Q179 26 205 131Q211 151 215 152Q217 153 225 153H229Q238 153 241 153T246 151T248 144Q247 138 245 128T234 90T214 43T183 6T137 -11Q101 -11 70 11T38 85Q38 97 39 102L104 360Q167 615 167 623Q167 626 166 628T162 632T157 634T149 635T141 636T132 637T122 637Q112 637 109 637T101 638T95 641T94 647Q94 649 96 661Q101 680 107 682T179 688Q194 689 213 690T243 693T254 694Q266 694 266 686Q266 675 193 386T118 83Q118 81 118 75T117 65V59Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(2377, 0)"><path data-c="5F" d="M0 -62V-25H499V-62H0Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(2877, 0)"><path data-c="41" d="M208 74Q208 50 254 46Q272 46 272 35Q272 34 270 22Q267 8 264 4T251 0Q249 0 239 0T205 1T141 2Q70 2 50 0H42Q35 7 35 11Q37 38 48 46H62Q132 49 164 96Q170 102 345 401T523 704Q530 716 547 716H555H572Q578 707 578 706L606 383Q634 60 636 57Q641 46 701 46Q726 46 726 36Q726 34 723 22Q720 7 718 4T704 0Q701 0 690 0T651 1T578 2Q484 2 455 0H443Q437 6 437 9T439 27Q443 40 445 43L449 46H469Q523 49 533 63L521 213H283L249 155Q208 86 208 74ZM516 260Q516 271 504 416T490 562L463 519Q447 492 400 412L310 260L413 259Q516 259 516 260Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(3627, 0)"><path data-c="73" d="M131 289Q131 321 147 354T203 415T300 442Q362 442 390 415T419 355Q419 323 402 308T364 292Q351 292 340 300T328 326Q328 342 337 354T354 372T367 378Q368 378 368 379Q368 382 361 388T336 399T297 405Q249 405 227 379T204 326Q204 301 223 291T278 274T330 259Q396 230 396 163Q396 135 385 107T352 51T289 7T195 -10Q118 -10 86 19T53 87Q53 126 74 143T118 160Q133 160 146 151T160 120Q160 94 142 76T111 58Q109 57 108 57T107 55Q108 52 115 47T146 34T201 27Q237 27 263 38T301 66T318 97T323 122Q323 150 302 164T254 181T195 196T148 231Q131 256 131 289Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(4096, 0)"><path data-c="73" d="M131 289Q131 321 147 354T203 415T300 442Q362 442 390 415T419 355Q419 323 402 308T364 292Q351 292 340 300T328 326Q328 342 337 354T354 372T367 378Q368 378 368 379Q368 382 361 388T336 399T297 405Q249 405 227 379T204 326Q204 301 223 291T278 274T330 259Q396 230 396 163Q396 135 385 107T352 51T289 7T195 -10Q118 -10 86 19T53 87Q53 126 74 143T118 160Q133 160 146 151T160 120Q160 94 142 76T111 58Q109 57 108 57T107 55Q108 52 115 47T146 34T201 27Q237 27 263 38T301 66T318 97T323 122Q323 150 302 164T254 181T195 196T148 231Q131 256 131 289Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(4565, 0)"><path data-c="65" d="M39 168Q39 225 58 272T107 350T174 402T244 433T307 442H310Q355 442 388 420T421 355Q421 265 310 237Q261 224 176 223Q139 223 138 221Q138 219 132 186T125 128Q125 81 146 54T209 26T302 45T394 111Q403 121 406 121Q410 121 419 112T429 98T420 82T390 55T344 24T281 -1T205 -11Q126 -11 83 42T39 168ZM373 353Q367 405 305 405Q272 405 244 391T199 357T170 316T154 280T149 261Q149 260 169 260Q282 260 327 284T373 353Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(5031, 0)"><path data-c="74" d="M26 385Q19 392 19 395Q19 399 22 411T27 425Q29 430 36 430T87 431H140L159 511Q162 522 166 540T173 566T179 586T187 603T197 615T211 624T229 626Q247 625 254 615T261 596Q261 589 252 549T232 470L222 433Q222 431 272 431H323Q330 424 330 420Q330 398 317 385H210L174 240Q135 80 135 68Q135 26 162 26Q197 26 230 60T283 144Q285 150 288 151T303 153H307Q322 153 322 145Q322 142 319 133Q314 117 301 95T267 48T216 6T155 -11Q125 -11 98 4T59 56Q57 64 57 83V101L92 241Q127 382 128 383Q128 385 77 385H26Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" transform="translate(5392, 0)"><path data-c="73" d="M131 289Q131 321 147 354T203 415T300 442Q362 442 390 415T419 355Q419 323 402 308T364 292Q351 292 340 300T328 326Q328 342 337 354T354 372T367 378Q368 378 368 379Q368 382 361 388T336 399T297 405Q249 405 227 379T204 326Q204 301 223 291T278 274T330 259Q396 230 396 163Q396 135 385 107T352 51T289 7T195 -10Q118 -10 86 19T53 87Q53 126 74 143T118 160Q133 160 146 151T160 120Q160 94 142 76T111 58Q109 57 108 57T107 55Q108 52 115 47T146 34T201 27Q237 27 263 38T301 66T318 97T323 122Q323 150 302 164T254 181T195 196T148 231Q131 256 131 289Z"></path></g></g><rect width="6303" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g></g></g><g></g></svg></span></span><span leaf="">简单说:这个值越低,说明利润和实际经营现金流越匹配,利润越扎实;越高说明纸面利润多,实际没拿到那么多现金,水分越大。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们用两家最新披露的2026年半年报业绩预告做对比,结果非常清楚:</span></p><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">规模和增速:兆易弹性更大</span></strong><span leaf="">:兆易创新的营收规模差不多是北京君正的2倍多,不管是营收增速还是归母净利润增速,都比北京君正快很多,确实是周期上行期的“业绩弹射”,而北京君正就是稳健的同比倍增,没有那么夸张的爆发。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">利润结构:君正完胜</span></strong><span leaf="">:拆分归母净利润之后,差异立刻出来了:兆易的非经常性损益占归母净利润的比例非常高,光2026年上半年,金融资产的公允价值变动收益就高达20.5亿元——说白了,这部分钱是兆易拿闲置资金做证券投资赚来的,不是卖芯片赚的;而北京君正的非经常性损益占比极低,几乎所有利润都来自芯片主业,政府补助对两家利润都没有结构性影响,而且两家的研发支出都是严格费用化,研发管线没有水分,这点两家都合格。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">真实核心利润:兆易表观强,实际结构弱</span></strong><span leaf="">:剔掉所有非持续性的收益之后,兆易的真实核心利润比表观净利润少了一大块,而北京君正的真实核心利润和表观利润几乎没差,真正做到了“表里如一”。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">现金流和背离度:君正更稳</span></strong><span leaf="">:兆易做的是通用消费电子为主,下游客户回款账期波动大,这次净利润爆发,经营现金流其实没有跟上,背离度偏高,存货和账期的波动都比较大;而北京君正的客户都是车规级厂商,信用好、回款稳定,现金流和净利润几乎没有背离,这点优势非常明显。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">最终的应计利润率对比</span></strong><span leaf="">:兆易的应计利润率大概在X区间(原报告留空,基于对比逻辑,显著高于君正),而北京君正的应计利润率极低,说明基本上没有盈余管理的嫌疑,利润全是实打实的。</span></section></li></ol><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">接下来我们用M-Score模型做了盈余操纵排查,这个模型是成熟的财务审计模型,用来排查公司有没有系统性地做利润调节:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">兆易创新的M-Score低于临界值,说明没有系统性的利润操纵,但核心风险点就是“其他非流动金融资产”的公允价值重估——上半年涨了20多亿,未来如果证券市场调整,这部分就会变成减记,直接拉低利润,相当于在净利润里埋了一个波动的“炸弹”。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">北京君正的M-Score远低于临界值,应收账款周转率和资产折旧率都在良性区间,盈余管理的动机几乎为零。 最后我们用主成分分析做了盈余质量打分,北京君正0.89分,兆易创新0.74分,剔除干扰之后,北京君正的盈利质量明显更优。</span></section></li></ul><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">总结一下财务关:</span><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">兆易的利润看起来爆涨,其实一半是主业赚的,一半是投资赚的;北京君正利润涨的没那么夸张,但全是主业赚的,没有水分。</span></strong></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">三、第二关:商业模式对比,谁的成长逻辑更扎实</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">两家虽然都属于存储大赛道,但底层的商业路径其实完全不一样,我们来拆解:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">兆易创新的路径:通用MCU+NOR/NAND Flash,卖给通用消费电子、中低端工控汽车,追求规模效应和高弹性beta</span></strong><span leaf="">——说白了就是做通用性的芯片,走量,周期起来的时候涨的快,周期下去的时候跌的也快。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">北京君正的路径:车规DRAM/SRAM+计算芯片,绑定ISSI车规主控生态,追求车规高壁垒和稳健的alpha收益</span></strong><span leaf="">——走的是高端利基路线,客户粘性高,壁垒高,周期波动小,增长稳。</span></section></li></ul><h3 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;display: block;"><span leaf="">第一点:价值创造效率,谁赚的钱更有价值?</span></span></h3><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们用EVA(经济增加值)来对比,简单说就是EVA为正,说明公司赚的钱比资本成本高,真的在为股东创造财富:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">投入资本回报率(ROIC):兆易因为这一轮存储周期爆发,利基存储和MCU大规模出货,资产周转弹性非常大,ROIC比北京君正更高。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">加权平均资本成本(WACC):北京君正的负债结构更温和,WACC略低于兆易。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">最终的经济增加值利差:两家都是正的,都处于高增值阶段,兆易因为规模效应,当前的财富创造效率确实更高,但这个效率是周期上行带来的,可持续性我们接下来分析。</span></section></li></ul><h3 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;display: block;"><span leaf="">第二点:第二曲线成长,谁的边际效益更好?</span></span></h3><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">两家都在做品类扩张,我们看扩张的协同性和边际收益:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">兆易创新:存储+MCU+传感器</span></strong><span leaf="">——协同性非常高,MCU和存储共享工业、物联网、汽车的客户,销售渠道和方案整合的契合度很高,而且随着晶圆代工厂产能释放,工艺升级之后,边际销售成本是指数级下降的,也就是说卖的越多,成本降的越快,利润弹性越大。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">北京君正:计算芯片+车规存储+模拟互联</span></strong><span leaf="">——协同性中等偏高,计算芯片(车机主控、智能视频)和车规存储刚好组成“计算+存储”的完整方案,都是深耕车规和工控,客户重叠度很高,但问题是车规芯片的验证周期非常长,一般要2-3年,所以第二曲线比如边缘计算芯片、LED驱动芯片上量很慢,但好处是一旦导入客户,就不会轻易替换,客户粘性极强,壁垒比消费类存储高很多。</span></section></li></ul><h3 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;display: block;"><span leaf="">第三点:供应链抗风险能力,谁能扛得住上游涨价?</span></span></h3><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">兆易是纯Fabless模式,就是自己设计,找代工厂生产,高度依赖中芯国际、华虹这些头部代工厂,产能紧张的时候容易被晶圆涨价抬升成本,但好处是兆易对下游的议价能力强,能把成本压力传下去。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">北京君正这两年明显受上游KGD(裸片,芯片封装的关键原材料)缺货涨价的影响,2026年中报也明确提到了这个压力,不过北京君正已经主动上调了计算芯片的价格,用来对冲成本,而且产品本身的壁垒溢价很高,原材料波动的影响大部分都被冲抵了,整体供应链的防守能力略逊于兆易,但也不会伤筋动骨。</span></section></li></ul><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">总结一下商业关:</span><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">兆易走的是规模弹性路线,周期上行的时候涨的快,扩张也快;北京君正走的是壁垒稳增长路线,虽然慢,但客户粘性强,波动小,逻辑更扎实。</span></strong></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">四、第三关:压力测试,极端行情谁更抗跌?</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们用蒙特卡洛模拟,输入宏观利率波动、存储价格走势、板块资金活跃度三个核心因子,做了一万次模拟,测试两家到2026年末的股价波动区间和下行风险,结果也很清晰:</span></p><h3 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;display: block;"><span leaf="">模拟结果:</span></span></h3><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">从波动区间看,兆易创新的上下限区间远大于北京君正,就是涨能涨的更多,跌也能跌的更多;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">下行风险VaR(95%置信区间下的最大回撤):兆易的下行敞口明显大于北京君正;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">核心结论:北京君正的抗跌能力远好于兆易,因为车规级存储的需求是长期稳定的,不会像通用消费存储那样跟着周期大起大落,而兆易本身就是高beta标的,波动本来就大,符合它的属性。</span></section></li></ul><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们还做了敏感度测试:假设通用存储均价下跌10%,看对两家净利润的影响:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">兆易创新的净利润弹性非常大,因为兆易的通用利基Flash占比很高,对价格变动非常敏感,价格跌10%,净利润会跌超过15%;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">北京君正的净利润弹性就小很多,因为车规存储一般都是签长期协议,现货价格的波动要6个月以上才会传导到车规端,而且需求稳定,所以价格下跌对净利润的影响很小。</span></section></li></ul><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">说白了,周期如果掉头向下,兆易会跌的很惨,北京君正能扛住,防守能力差很多。</span></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">五、第四关:看资金轨迹,现在筹码到底在哪?</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们从微观结构来看看两家现在的资金状态,告诉你有没有被资金“炒过头”:</span></p><h3 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;display: block;"><span leaf="">第一:估值跃迁的概率,接下来涨和跌的概率有多大?</span></span></h3><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们用马尔可夫转移矩阵,推演未来30个交易日估值从当前位置向上(到极度高估)、维持、向下(到估值修复)的概率,核心结论在杠杆温度计上:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">兆易创新:融资盘介入非常深,杠杆活跃度已经处于历史90%以上的分位,属于情绪过热,完全是资金推动,筹码波动大;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">北京君正:机构筹码非常集中沉淀,游资博弈的成分很低,杠杆温度计只在历史40%分位左右,情绪温度正常,没有过热。</span></section></li></ul><h3 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;display: block;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;display: block;"><span leaf="">第二:板块资金联动,谁能吃到板块的红利?</span></span></h3><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们用莫兰指数测了资金的溢出效应,就是板块涨的时候,你能不能跟着涨:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">兆易创新的莫兰指数很高,和通用半导体、AI服务器、消费电子复苏的联动性非常强,板块起来的时候,资金会第一时间买兆易,能吃到最多的板块红利;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">北京君正主要绑定汽车半导体和工控板块,和通用存储板块的短期资金共振弱一些,板块暴涨的时候,它涨的会比兆易慢,但跌的时候也跌的少。</span></section></li></ul><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">总结资金关:</span><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">兆易现在是热钱扎堆,情绪过热,弹性大但风险也大;北京君正机构锁仓,情绪平稳,涨的慢但稳。</span></strong></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">六、第五关:估值定价,现在股价贵不贵?有没有安全边际?</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们结合2026年上半年的业绩,对全年业绩做了保守前瞻,再用折现模型反向推当前股价隐含的长期增长预期,看看现在的价格到底透支了多少增长:</span></p><section data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;overflow-x: auto;"><table style="display: table;text-align: left;"><thead><tr><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">估值指标</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">兆易创新</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">北京君正</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">核心差异</span></section></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">2026E归母净利润</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">更高的绝对规模,增速更快</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">规模更低,增速稳健</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">兆易的利润预测已经包含了上半年的投资收益,君正全是主业利润</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">PE-TTM</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">两家都因为中报业绩高增,估值被摊薄,兆易PE略高于君正</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">都是周期上行后的估值摊薄,核心看隐含增长</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">隐含永续增长率</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">兆易当前股价隐含了非常高的长期永续增长预期,也就是说,现在的价格已经提前透支了未来很多年的增长,一旦增长达不到预期,就会大跌</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">隐含的永续增长率更低,和行业平均水平匹配,容错率更高</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">兆易容错率低,君正安全边际更高</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">股息率安全垫</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">更低</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">更高</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">君正资本支出平稳,分红更稳定,下跌的时候股息支撑更强</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">合理估值区间</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">当前股价已经打到合理区间的上沿,属于不便宜了</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">当前股价在合理区间中枢偏下,还有上行空间</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">兆易已经price in 所有利好,君正还没完全反映价值</span></section></td></tr></tbody></table></section><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">总结估值关:</span><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 3px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><span leaf="">兆易现在已经不便宜,在合理区间的顶部,预期打的很满;北京君正还在合理区间的下半段,安全边际足够。</span></strong></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">七、SHAP股价归因:拆拆看,现在的股价到底是靠什么撑起来的?</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们用机器学习的SHAP模型,把当前股价的驱动力做了百分比拆解,结果非常直观:</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">兆易创新的股价,大概不到60%来自业绩和盈利质量,25%左右来自细分龙头的稀缺性溢价,剩下超过15%来自市场情绪和资金拥挤带来的溢价,也就是说,每10块钱的股价里,有1块半是情绪泡沫;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">北京君正的股价,超过75%来自盈利质量和当期业绩,20%来自车规壁垒的稀缺性溢价,只有不到5%是情绪溢价,泡沫极少,几乎全是硬核价值撑起来的。</span></section></li></ul><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">两家都享受到了国产替代的细分龙头溢价,这点是一样的,差异就是兆易的泡沫更多,北京君正几乎没有泡沫。</span></p><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style=" align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: flex;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px; text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span style=" font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 10px;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: linear-gradient(0deg, rgb(231, 247, 252) 40%, transparent 40%);background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;color: rgb(112, 188, 234);display: block;font-weight: bold;font-style: normal;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset; text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset; "><span leaf="">最后总结:</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">其实两家没有绝对的好坏,只是适合不同的资金和不同的投资风格:如果你想赚周期上行的快钱,能承受大回撤,选兆易,弹性足够大;如果你想赚国产替代的长线钱,不想担大风险,选北京君正,财务干净壁垒高,拿的放心。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">现在半导体周期刚进入上行期,市场还在炒弹性,等行情走到中后期,资金一定会更偏好业绩干净、壁垒高的稳健标的,你是想赚快钱还是赚稳钱,相信你已经有答案了。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库