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国产车逆袭:吉利海外销量狂飙30%碾压特斯拉

发布于 2025-08-29

<section data-mpa-md-root="t" data-mpa-md-template="1"><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6cmo0y" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利关于吉利汽车控股(0175.HK)的研究报告总结(2025年8月15日)</span></span></strong></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6cnyoe" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心观点与评级</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">评级</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:重申“增持”(Overweight),目标价从21港元上调至24港元,潜在涨幅约26%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">依据</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:基于2025年下半年新车发布、海外市场增长预期及盈利改善,调整了盈利预测和估值模型。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6cr12uq" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键业务动态与财务预测</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6cs1cu7" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年新车发布计划</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新车型</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年将推出4款新车,支撑全年300万辆销量目标:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">银河M9</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:8月23日开启预售(高端SUV)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">星耀6</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:第四季度上市。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">领克10 EM-P</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(插混):9月上市。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">极氪9X</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计三季度末发布。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场反响</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:新车型(如银河A7)上市一周订单超3万辆,推动品牌高端化与均价(ASP)提升。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6cz9ug" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2. 海外市场增长</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上半年表现</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:受东欧市场拖累,海外销量同比下滑8%至1.8万辆。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下半年目标</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计同比增长30%,全年海外销量达4.2万辆(同比+5%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">重点市场</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3个核心区域</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(东欧、亚洲等):目标年销量10万辆+。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中东、拉美</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:目标年销量5万-8万辆。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新车型出海</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:银河ES、星际7、极氪TX等将进入更多海外市场。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6d99cq" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3. 盈利能力提升</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">单车净利润</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计2025年下半年达5,200-5,500元(上半年为4,700元),隐含下半年净利润83亿-88亿元。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">驱动因素</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">规模效应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:单车折旧成本降低约250元。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">供应链协同</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:联合采购节省100-200元/车。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产品结构优化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:高端车型(如银河M9、极氪9X)贡献100-200元/车利润。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">极氪业务</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年二季度首次实现GAAP营业利润2.85亿元,全年核心盈利目标维持150亿元(上半年66亿元)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6dhhdy" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">财务预测与估值调整</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6di12x0" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利预测上调</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025-2027年EPS</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:上调1%-4%,2025年净利润预测上调4%至71.6亿元。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">销量预期</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025-2027年销量预测上调10%-13%,反映300万辆年目标。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">毛利率</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2026-2027年小幅下调0.4-0.7个百分点(因中端车型占比提升),但运营杠杆和极氪整合将抵消影响。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6dl174y" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2. 估值方法</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">DCF模型</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:采用11.2%的加权平均资本成本(WACC)和3%的永续增长率(高于传统车企的2%),反映新能源和海外市场的增长潜力。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标价推导</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:基于盈利预测上调和估值滚动至2026年,目标价提升至24港元(对应2026年10-11倍PE,与过去两年均值一致)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6dn1dcd" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险与机会</span></span></strong></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6dp1ggw" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上行机会</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策刺激</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:若中国延长购车补贴政策。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产品溢价</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:银河、领克等高端品牌持续提价能力。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">海外扩张</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:新兴市场(如中东、拉美)超预期增长。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6dt14vm" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下行风险</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">国内竞争</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:价格战加剧或需求疲软。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">海外阻力</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:贸易保护(如欧盟关税)或地缘政治风险。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">极氪私有化延迟</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计2025年四季度完成,若进展不顺或影响整合效率。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6dx21ln" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业与公司定位</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场份额</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:吉利在中国乘用车市场的份额从2023年的8%提升至2025年的12%,新能源车型在10万-20万元价格区间的市占率显著增长。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section data-mpa-md-key="common" style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;"><section nodeleaf="" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;"><img data-imgfileid="100043779" data-ratio="0.40313111545988256" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCsDIgFjV3BWt3aL3ssaeUTmwdWl47HvrOHeLJGQdeZcibITNS55FfNnA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="511" height="1" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;" width="1" /></section></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">同业对比</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:估值低于比亚迪(1211.HK)但高于长城汽车(2333.HK),反映其新能源转型和全球化布局优势。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6dz1whm" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">附录:关键数据表</span></span></strong></span></span></section><table style="min-width: 125px;"><tbody><tr style=""><th style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">指标</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">2024</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">2025E</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">2026E</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">2027E</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">销量(万辆)</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">166.9</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">230.8</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">246.7</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">260.3</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">营收(亿元)</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">1,669</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">3,079</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">3,452</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">3,732</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">净利润(亿元)</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">170</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">176(+4%)</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">218(+1%)</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">249(+2%)</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">毛利率</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">16.3%</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">16.4%</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">16.5%</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">16.6%</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6e0n95" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论</span></span></strong></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memgd6e01ayt" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利看好吉利汽车通过新车周期、海外扩张和成本优化实现盈利增长,目标价24港元对应26%上行空间,建议长期投资者关注其新能源转型和全球化战略的持续兑现。</span></span></span></span></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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