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国防股PE暴跌20%的黄金坑:俄乌停火协议暗藏预期差,欧洲军工22%盈利增速碾压美股

发布于 2025-08-26

<section data-mpa-md-root="t" data-mpa-md-template="1"><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel86h3orp7" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是2025年8月16日高盛欧洲投资周报《Invest</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ing in Europe's investments》的核心内容总结:</span></span></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel86h3o10xh" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、宏观政策转向</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">财政政策扩张</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧元区财政赤字预期升至GDP的3%(逆转此前紧缩预期),</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">德国领跑刺激计划,2026年联邦赤字目标达GDP的3.8%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">德国2026年GDP增速预期+1.5%,利好工业、建筑等</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">周期性行业盈利上修。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2.国防支出加速</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">德国国防预算(豁免债务刹车规则)2029年将达GDP的3</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">.4%;欧元区国防支出占比将从2024年1.9%升至2029年2.8%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧洲防务公司全球市场份额从2022年18%翻倍至36%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3.欧盟政策支持</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">SAFE计划</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:1500亿欧元提供低成本融资和长债期限,辅以快速审批、</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">并购激励等改革。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">乘数效应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:军事支出每增加1个百分点可推升GDP约0.6%,利好本</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">土采购和防务股(如GSSBDEFE)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel86h3wm7q" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、企业投资趋势</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">资本支出(CAPEX)复苏</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧洲企业CAPEX/销售比达10年高位,资产密集型行业受</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">益。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧盟-美国贸易协定提供政策确定性,2024-28年欧洲C</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">APEX复合增速预期5.9%(高于历史均值2.6%),由财政扩张、能源转型和数字基建驱动。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2.行业分化加剧</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">领跑行业</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:技术、公用事业、国防(受益政策顺风,)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">承压行业</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:汽车、化工(面临产能过剩和竞争疲软)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel86h421v9h" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、国防板块战略配置</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心推荐GSSBDEFE篮子</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">年初至今上涨近100%,估值较俄乌停火消息前高点回落20</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">%,但市场已定价2025年底停火概率35%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值优势</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:欧洲防务股PE 28x(美国24x),盈利增速22%(</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">美国6%),PEG折价20%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2.替代性投资组合</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧洲财政基建篮子(GSSTFISC)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:覆盖可再生能源、工业机械、电信等,分散化且估值更低。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">CAPEX受益篮子(GSSTCAPX)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:含工业、化工、能源,但受贸易政策不确定性压制。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel86h493ut" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、盈利与估值动态</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利趋势</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">技术板块领跑(2025-27年盈利CAGR 16%),能</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">源板块承压(-5.1%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">资本支出上修企业表现跑赢下修企业。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2.估值比较</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">STOXX 600</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:NTM PE 14.4x,股息率3.4%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">地区对比</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:欧洲估值低于美股(S&amp;P 500 PE 21.5x),</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">但ROE(12.5%)逊于美国(20.6%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel86h4f1njm" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、跨资产与风格表现</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">资产回报</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股票 &gt; 债券 &gt; 大宗商品(Exhibit 13),周</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">期股相对防御股跑赢1.5%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">价值股相对成长股跑赢22.8%,小盘股相对大盘股跑赢0.</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">7%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2.汇率与商品预测</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧元兑美元12个月看至1.25(+7.4%);布油看跌至</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">55美元/桶(-17.7%),黄金看涨至3920美元(+17.5%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel86h4l1uo9" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">六、风险提示</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">汽车、化工、金融服务业盈利预期疲软。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">地缘冲突(俄乌停火概率)及政策执行不确定性可能扰动市场。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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