地产晃荡四十年：从风口到地上 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2022年10月27日 18时03分

<p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 12px;">· 前言&nbsp;·</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">未来5年“发展”仍是国家任务的第一位，“人民”是第二位。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而地产行业又跟人民的每一天相关，现在我们或许处于行业波动当中，但<strong>穿越风暴后，房企后续要怎么发展？我们怎么为人民提供美好生活？决策如何做得更扎实？</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;">而这些年房地产的发展，正是人民美好生活从无到有的过程——</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj89V8h2c7g7jAkic7M9tdsKTmmTSibnuOxCWicaicEJJpeibWOZfWibW7hMzrA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="1" data-cropx2="324" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="316" data-ratio="0.978328173374613" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8tGyxAGkJQ6pndXCbOWqxKAcuicW9dPnmIV9krCwxicZDa97mek2VmRhg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="323" style="width: 167px;height: 163px;" /></p><h2 style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></h2><h2 style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">01</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></p><p style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 18px;visibility: visible;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">1998年之前：变革的前奏</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从新中国成立到改革开放之前，人们的住房问题主要通过“等国家建房，靠组织分房，要单位给房”的方式解决。直到1980年，房子才被定义为商品。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1）土地第一拍</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：1987年在深圳完成了新中国历史上的“土地第一拍”，意味着我国土地使用制度实现了一次根本性的变革。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7611111111111111" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8jYf35BGOECe2eJg0WIppar6wibHDSTOntmKneuDJdJNl9jBRtwzZy2Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">1987年12月1日，时任深圳经济特区房地产公司总经理的骆锦星（左边举牌者）以525万元的价格，竞得新中国土地使用权“第一拍”。刘廷芳 摄</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2）海南房地产泡沫</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：1988年，国务院将海南岛单独设为经济特区，1992年，南巡并发表重要谈话，同时海南岛还开放吸引外资开放洋浦经济开发区，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>接连不断的利好消息带动下，海南地产开发如火如荼</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，房价更是从1991年的1400元/平，到1992年涨至5000元/平，1993年甚至冲到7500元/平，当时全国商品房均价都不到1000元/平。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7013888888888888" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8Llhp5c7PeYg5PB2e1LibGNCTS1zog8astaHMdtAlayxKdNNPvYZ3XVg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="720" /></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">但随着国务院出台了16条强有力的调控措施，大量资金从海南撤离，房价暴跌，地产行业一夜入冬，海南经济甚至一度出现断崖式下滑。</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6028880866425993" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj83YDjficeKMF6Xos7msbpIt0IKDELKaSz9icQF9q1ZtYOPAbVjUrkKK2Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:334.2699890136719px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">1900-1999年海南GDP中房地产业对应值及其占比情况</span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8oqoLVG6FcomiaYKUFuY051IyKNKhibf1AHvCC7WLeibSHuaicgiacNOXnWA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="381" style="width: 175px;height: 174px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3）崭新的上海</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：1990年4月，国务院宣布了开发与开放浦东的重大决策，从此浦东发展建设展开了新的篇章。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="325" data-backw="500" data-ratio="0.65" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8EQcGMGQxhU3oicZqQ28u8vHmUKPbg6a6C9J93NH0P4xjSPPAiaWeyDTA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">1990年5月3日，上海市人民政府浦东开发办公室和上海市浦东开发规划研究设计院正式成立。（新华社）</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在各项利好政策的刺激下，浦东在不到10年的时间里，从一片荒凉之地变成国际化、现代化的新城区。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5180505415162455" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj81qdAjwmZBPibUiaSAFKWnUJPDDFHBkj2SBrrro64VpEnx8HLaibPibCpag/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:286.5400085449219px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">20世纪90年代上海浦东新区房屋施工面积情况</span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8qE2HlPxZ0QN6ibV5dJUzH1kISvUIgicYDicD8Xs0FcTGwmxay80LgGoqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="439" style="width: 180px;height: 180px;" /></p><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></h2><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">02</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">1998-2002年：解除历史的枷锁</strong><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1998年对于中国是意义非凡的一年，外有金融危机，内有产能过剩，但也是在这一年，中国经济迎来了一系列颠覆式的改革。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1）“温州看房团”跃上舞台</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：温州人在改革开放的红利上，凭借自身的智慧与勤劳，实现了起初的资本，房改落地后，温州人纷纷将钱投到当地房地产中，不到3年，温州部分成熟住宅区的房价从2000元/平涨到7000元/平。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.0591259640102828" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8CuKRcurxp1fwFjunFcuKZuc9Nu6rKjtdNhLcI4drq49JrJYmNTn08A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="389" style="width: 159px;height: 169px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">随着本地房价的走高，2000年开始，温州人将投资范围扩大到杭州、上海、苏州等。温州看房团所到之处都会掀起一阵房地产热潮。实际上这种现状不过是源于住宅货币化下居民需求的释放。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="343" data-backw="528" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8XicDmgxnN52WbVSbBViaicIwwNmTaic4CRZAD0eRmvC5WE7IkbPnp5kypA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="10.54945054945055" data-cropx2="629.4505494505495" data-cropy1="7.032967032967033" data-cropy2="410.2564102564103" data-ratio="0.6494345718901454" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8jjwBRFU4HsKKcMXrjWiaAibFDUHDKax1fDNuKkRuzuIqJAAf7YTAKZ9g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="619" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-size: 16px;">除了中国城镇化进程加快和居民财富增加两大重要因素，相对宽松的房贷政策也加快了居民购房需求的释放，共同推动了房价的走高。</span></strong><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5649819494584838" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8grEUOwhczXQEkibgxN7fJiavWuwpuyb3Ve3dKKPqFAuicr4XLH2ueBamw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:312.94000244140625px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">1980-2002年城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入及同比变化</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2）一种风靡全国的新模式</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：千禧年之初，广州华南板块出现了8个超级大楼盘，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>开启广州房地产市场的大盘地产模式，也引领中国房地产开发进入新时代</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。以碧桂园为例，更是一战成名，并在此后借助大盘开发模式实现了迅速扩张。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.62890625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8K2EQVQ5hdZJIwvJgkKkVmO5nAw5oLjR6ToZSpicb3L7UyA1icPmhCsibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1024" style="" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2000年年初，中国取消了福利分房，当时中国又正好处于城镇化进程加快的时期，而老城区可以开发的面积不多，能够提供的住房数量自然也有限，市场上有众多的住房需求没有被满足。</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">郊区大盘的开发模式，利用规模效应降低开发成本，同时兼顾数量和质量，进而实现了规模上的快速扩张。</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3）风风火火上市潮</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：1999年，房企上市的禁锢终于解除，此时中国房地产市场正处于蓬勃发展阶段，全国房地产开发投资额同比增速保持在20%以上。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">对房企而言，如何在短时间内获取大量可用资金显得尤为重要。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>不少房企借壳上市，借助资本市场进行融资，以支撑地产企业后续进行大规模的开发。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.555956678700361" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8NSOHfeppDR37qABVTMB6a4hp0G2NT2qRhsgIDrf5icWfzYmYmZGiar4Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:308.0px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">1998-2008年全国房地产开发投资完成额及同比变化</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8CPWAYBO7VMWBaQDSHKuOGSYNKwPuZLNFKgLYUFrG8DkFjoohhqtxQg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="621" style="width: 184px;height: 184px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></h2><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">03</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">2003-2008年：风起云涌的岁月</strong><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自1998年启动房改之后，中国房地产市场迎来了快速发展，当时在国内众多城市，到处可以看到正在开发的大大小小的楼盘，全国房地产开发投资保持迅猛增长。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2001年中国成功加入WTO，为国内企业提供了更好的国际贸易环境，进一步带动了国内制造业的发展和工业投资。在出口与投资的双轮驱动下，中国经济保持高速增长态势。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6522388059701493" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/IRRBI6IO4Rcr57GeMQyPTI3u1v3UEiaNbibrVicekj1bFeJpnaM6t2eaMoMAP7T0jGcHEvibiaYErmaAIxDHfuaLf2A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" data-w="670" /></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1）2003-2004年，冰与火的考验</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：2003年年初，“非典”肆虐，不仅危害人民生命安全，还暂缓中国经济狂奔的脚步。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6703125" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8XW9YApnu9Bic4mH1CasCV7icO28TKMtSJ3gXK7nfbGOEhLXEV8ClcUhw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" /></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>国内房地产市场也因此受到明显冲击</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，尤其是北京和广东。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.592057761732852" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8407liaRpxsHvsOv8vF4aFibffqKdwWiaHbDkR0ic6J2ZAWOWPR0CozWwZg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:327.6000061035156px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2003年北京、广东住宅商品房销售额累计同比变动</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8YiaOdHicGDqMlicibIyXssHozj4em3Z0VT4pKIM4tU5icctkqbqIib6mQU1g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="240" style="width: 201px;height: 201px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在“非典”的影响下，2003年二季度，GDP同比增速较一季度下滑2%。为稳定国内经济增长，国务院</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>首次明确房地产的国民经济支柱地位，肯定房地产行业的作用。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">得益于此，即使受“非典”的冲击，2003年全国房地产开发投资完成额同比增速还是有30%多，甚至创下了1998年“房改”启动之后的历史最高值。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8l6pF5JmhfAmLAY1RRpbD0l45xRGGPia8Hy9CIu0cQ4icQGfzic5VwWDicw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="712.0879120879122" data-ratio="0.6583333333333333" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8keWojnvkYLOMQza6hjnj3c1NdlX66deXLXmV2evicvsRKVxlNZuZZcA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 360px;" /></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2004年8月31日之后，开发商拿地通过公开方式竞争，比拼资本实力，各大开发商之间竞争激烈，无形中推高了土地价格，接下来时常出现“地王”。</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>地价的上涨，缓解了市场上盲目囤地和开发的现象，全国房屋新开工面积增速有所回落，房地产开发投资热有所降温。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5342960288808665" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj84qdcNsYwFhM21ZAxDF1x3TwMqHS8U0icQcMw62JjKf4hS8vPnATyqeA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:296.2699890136719px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2003-2005年全国住宅新开工面积和房屋新开工面积累积同比变化</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">然而，这一时期居民的购房需求并未减弱，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>土地成本的提升被开发商转嫁给了消费者，2004年国内很多城市的房价都出现了进一步的上涨</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，针对这种现象，各项调控都在赶来的路上。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7833935018050542" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8mvGBiaara3FkHnnmrKsMTicEqz4Bia1uFXpKbz3IOTib3F3xyXC8B3QUKA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:433.80999755859375px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2004年北京、上海、广东房屋平均销售价格涨幅</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8qIeuLHdL2P38RxDc9mfz5IcK1rVHicRTloU8R9kpgZVGnD03tUPe8tg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="554" data-cropy1="101.46520146520146" data-cropy2="547.9120879120878" data-ratio="0.8050541516245487" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8td3W9eicpS5t9YpY1n7XH1LtDZ6Z97Bnymaib8CbUR6Z8WyWiahd6t2zg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 183px;height: 147px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2）顺驰折戟沙场</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：1994年，孙宏斌在天津创办顺驰，2002年成为津门地产中的龙头房企，并开始进行异地开发，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>将高周转的快速开发模式复制到了全国，然而在爆发式增长的背后，承受着巨大的资金和管理的压力。</strong></span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="300" data-backw="400" data-ratio="0.75" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8W0fXFUpZiaBQHbMCmUhicy4Rwn6wGW19e0UIEuKib5VibRP5JKhPeUZeCQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="400" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">随着2005年3月底，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>调控政策收紧，顺驰资金链紧张的问题逐渐暴露，加上为了快速扩张，“不惜代价拿地”，公司的土地成本明显高于其它房企</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，2003-2004年顺驰的净利润只有3%-4%，同期万科的净利润则保持在15%以上。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2006年，孙宏斌只能选择出卖顺驰股份获取资金，路劲基建与顺驰达成转让协议，路劲基建向顺驰注资12.8亿，同时获取公司55%的股权，2007年，路劲基建再投入13亿元收购了顺驰近40%股权，从而持有顺驰近95%的股权，这意味着孙宏斌领导的顺驰时代就此结束。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.590625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8xGibf9wZ6Uha4cYHKkU3OqaxJWulKg0eMxicaK01msGe5LFqoUiahDOTg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" /></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3）2005-2007年，从狂欢到寒冬</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：2005年以来政策频出，不少房企感受到了凉意，但国内房价没有下跌迹象，反而上涨势头越来越足。尤其是2007年4月开始涨幅越来越高，直到2007年年底这一趋势才终结。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5523465703971119" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8ZMazH32wiaoas4ABOx6KYUJLzvicRCKY2b7RficwDcSnP0SZtbzLBTaLQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:305.79998779296875px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8I8C03yPldULVSftpSKwLSBgaKHUicre8NWfsO1OCaU9fZDDMnGVIqBA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="256" style="width: 166px;height: 166px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2005-2007年持续上涨的房价背后主要是4个原因——</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、首先是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>中国城镇化进程加快和居民收入改善</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">下的购房需求还未减弱；</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、其次是随着土地供给的减少和房地产开发投资受限，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>地产供给端受到压制</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">；</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、除此以外，2005年7月，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>人民币进入升值通道，吸引大量海外资本加速流进国内</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。进一步推升国内的房价水平</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、2007年3月，一方面明确规定了“住宅建设用地使用权期间届满的，自动续期”，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>增加了普通民众购房的信心</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，另一方面规定了耕地保护，控制建设用地总量，进而开发商拿地难度加大，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>开发量缩小和土地成本的抬升</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，无形中又刺激了房价的走高。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">然而，2007年9月开始，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>严格控制二套房贷款和房地产开发贷款，许多城市出现大面积的退房潮</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="375" data-backw="500" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8CTGhcVicqLIu8NwUxdVd7HiapzuKWAMV0jvibrhg0pX3gWcUPerTcdqtw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="500" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="305.86080586080584" data-ratio="0.61" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8G4YAqTa9daKOIM3a9vgck0V19vxSs2vjyFzItgEYaHiaIxia3oUewuXg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" style="width: 546px;height: 334px;" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2008年沪宁杭退房潮，图片来源网络</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">雪上加霜的是，<strong>这个时候美国次贷危机越演越烈，逐步变成金融危机。受此影响，国内地产市场观望情绪越加浓重，交易量大幅萎缩。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4305555555555556" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8T3zRw6nibGVTZAR3JlhY9EviaR8YUBNib5HnHSk7Q3NtFftiaDJAgRAicZA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="other" data-w="720" /></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2008年，美国房贷逾期创造了全新的纪录，金融海啸从华尔街席卷全美</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>为应对金融危机的冲击，国家推出了房地产刺激政策和“四万亿计划”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，地产行业重新迎来了新篇章。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="290" data-backw="509" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8XiblgP0ZfvPK2lWbhhyYveKiajqjfIS0OoTmZBswTick8oYiboAKMaWsbA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="24.615384615384617" data-cropx2="621.2454212454213" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="341.098901098901" data-ratio="0.5711892797319933" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8GV7CLNGwbD43YJ2GxKQxcZTgNSTMbM7VX0tgwOicOGBsibWB6Aibia6L1A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="597" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">04</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">2009-2013年:潮起与潮落</strong><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2008年，金融危机持续蔓延，美国经济遭受重挫，我国出口面临前所未有的冲击，为稳定国内经济增长，国家将更多目光放在内部需求和投资上。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1)2009年-2011年，房地产“第二春”</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：2009年国内房价在宽松的信贷政策下出现明显上涨，为了遏制房价过快上涨，地产调控政策接二连三出台，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>宏观调控严厉的同时，政府继续加大保障性住房的供应。在这个背景下，各大房企为了保持业绩的增长，2010年开始纷纷进军商业地产。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7046875" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8bL59atRibBJDMuM0fVwsLettZCvQACDTCqqJwl2ywHK7oPATb9mFMBA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图为广州金沙洲万达广场</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">随着市场参与者的逐渐增多,国内商业地产的发展迎来快速增长期。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5866425992779783" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8QyB4MB5w4FEyskUuAU9sOqzhRIAGEhTEzv1I6dsmjv9oLE7xM1ERmA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:325.3999938964844px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2009-2015年国内商业营业用房完成投资额及同比变动情况</span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7191780821917808" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8LOyKrZuf3bKCgQdJIEhYniayULHgWrjfUhzcZR74rUOYU6p6hDZeic3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="146" style="width: 191px;height: 138px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2)鄂尔多斯的“空城”</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：2004年，鄂尔多斯为了缓解老城区交通拥挤和人口膨胀的问题，当地政府在距离老市区25千米的荒漠中规划了康巴什新区。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">历经5年，耗资50多亿元，2009年基本建成，但接下来两年里，新区的入住率都很低,被称为“鬼城”。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.562271577171774" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8jYAUaKlmjv8sssYWYS0us98BZ3EWTu4znUz0h8Q6t17AMILPNbIVMw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="3557" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">康巴什区文化艺术走廊（老鲁摄于2020）</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一方面是因为2011年之后，在限购、限贷、限价政策的推行下，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>投机性购房需求被抑制，而鄂尔多斯的刚性需求有限</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，加上前期该城市的地产投资开发过度，市场供过于求，开发商资金回流也开始出现问题。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">另一方面，2011年年初，国内通胀水平抬升，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>中国人民银行不断收紧货币流动性，由此鄂尔多斯的民间资金也开始紧张起来，在销售低迷和融资紧张的双重压力下，不少鄂尔多斯的地产开发商出现资金链断裂</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，进一步导致民间借贷危机在鄂尔多斯大面积爆发，两者之间形成恶性循环。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.3333333333333333" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8A3784Wlnmr4CYUIvRyGal5whz7xjWXq5wNF4kwOl7GwSrHLdyClXgg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="other" data-w="1080" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">鄂尔多斯烂尾楼</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">鄂尔多斯的康巴什新区之所以会在当时沦为“空城“，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>究其根本还是由于城市扩张过快和房地产投机炒作过度造成的</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。当时国内很多三四线城市，乃至一些二线城市都有同样的问题。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6263537906137184" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8AkYKj5oMXxbibnyquaNzmN9TZILjkhQsYLHbw3dCkgQLLhOM2TibLhpA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:347.4700012207031px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2012-2014年一线、二线、三线城市住宅价格指数环比变动情况</span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8QxibHeZHHe1cgpGSc4JeFr2WD8Qepu7ZsA2TjV6icajibibFBvLdY3U4Ew/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="554" data-cropy1="74.80168776371309" data-cropy2="554.0000000000001" data-ratio="0.8664259927797834" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8KjL7m1qPZc7icRaDWIf357BnH65RLficdcIaWDToV0PpVwvl2SYrPiaSA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 172px;height: 149px;" /></p><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></h2><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">05</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">2014-2017年：繁荣再次来袭</strong><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">进入2014年，全国经济复苏曲折乏力，中国经济也面临增长下行压力加剧的挑战。房地产市场疲软，出于稳定经济增长和降低库存的目的，2014年下半年开始，房地产调控政策从收紧转为支持。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1）2014-2015年，和股市说再见</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：在2014年上半年，无论股市还是楼市都十分低迷，根本没有赚钱效应可言。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而到了下半年，新华社连发多篇股评文章力挺中国股市，专家纷纷发表牛市论，股市情绪开始好转，同年11月，沪港通正式开通，央行宣布降息，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>市场压抑已久的做多热情一触即发，股市疯涨。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.575812274368231" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8YP1ZsEqFjicc28ficP8wc20JSUYViamrOvmMCS6ia4scMu2DR47dXqiaGuQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:318.739990234375px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2014-2016年上证综指走势情况</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同时，2014年9月30日，放宽二套房的认定标准，同时将首套房利率下限下调为基准利率的7折。但</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>政策松绑后楼市并没有立即迎来大幅反弹。主要是因为上证综指一路走高，大量资金都流向股市，上证综指一度去到了5000点的高峰。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6299638989169675" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj86eavYJBVFFcZIvvHDJdicAvsNxLDh1IK9jvicoh9y1kGzN64IRmzy7jQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:349.4700012207031px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2014-2017年70个大中城市新建住宅价格指数环比变动</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">然而，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>是泡沫就有破裂的一天，不合理的估值终究要回归理性</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。2015年5月，监管层严查场外配资成了压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。各类杠杆资金开始加速爆仓，而爆仓又进一步加快股价的下跌。短短3个月，上证综指从5000多点跌回3000点。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8H6QHn5usGYianLFTKJYnLgBm9b1e6bG0jXC4uogh980gsWlBQTwdIPw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="259" style="width: 215px;height: 215px;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在股市连续下跌之际，一线城市地产市场明显回暖，进入大幅上涨的状态，其中高端住宅成交更是异常火热。北上广深有越来越多的楼盘成交均价超过10万/平，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2015年也被称为“豪宅元年”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.425" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj82fwRU1ibCBicMXX1zibelX1modECst80sXt7ic5FENibQA7f7vs0pNrG1xw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">北京壹号院，“最高单价40万”</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">一方面是政策利好，促进市场上的改善型需求大幅释放，另一方面是2015年4-5月份的时候，股市仍在高位，但不少从股市中获利的资金，纷纷流入房地产市场</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，助推了一线城市的豪宅市场火热发展。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6299638989169675" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj89z3vKMwdGJkeEwJtEaBFSasXDopCOspzsSzbAzOYicicnKGotQUKHgUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:349.2699890136719px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2014-2017年一、二、三线城市住宅价格指数环比变动情况</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2）2016-2017年，三、四线楼市起死回生</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：随着北、上、深一线城市房价的明显上涨，进入2016年这些城市陆续重启限购政策。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">于是部分</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>资金便从一线城市流向其周边城市及二线城市</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，他们接替一线城市，成为房价上涨先锋。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">针对三、四线城市楼市库存较大的问题，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>政府采取棚改货币化安置政策，推动三、四线城市地产去库存的工作</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="315" data-backw="500" data-ratio="0.63" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8cAgKJnHr5SVTWKOdHZPR3l926xqmTBXrs1k8sVQgBF8cd8kTiabBp0A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同时，因为部分二线城市因前期房价上涨过快，也引来限购风潮，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>部分投资性购房需求，便转移到没有限购的三、四线城市。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5577617328519856" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8lE0vsARsVETHKe6kWCopL0mic7M2ghTDWUhz21VtEojYbgvdvDjlb0w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:308.6700134277344px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2015-2017年40大中城市当中一、二、三线城市商品房销售额同比变化</span></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.759090909090909" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8HsswR5HBlpAA1kyiajIjTS9knhQLdM758CNDZ6o8ZxnqWYibw2wMFNvg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="440" style="width: 212px;height: 161px;" /></p><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></h2><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">06</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">2018年至今：从风口回到地上</strong><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2018年，中国改革开放40周年，回望过去，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>从1998年取消福利分房之后，先经历了高速增长的黄金，又经历了区域分化上涨的白银时代，现在国内房地产市场进入平稳增长期，明确“房住不炒”的监管主基调。</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5487364620938628" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8qMsiagXbzzGcukdk7oiaATa47ftZAcbBTPibXvGUCgRibMSStXSbZHdBvg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:304.0px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">2010-2020年一、二、三线城市住宅价格指数环比</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">对标美国1950年至今房地产发展历程，主要分四个阶段——</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1)1946-1967年：电子时代——美丽新世界</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.66875" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qj4uRul2C9qWufyZMEoK2pen3La7UZI2B9rj5LUr4zA7pf6NEJZKibSD0sP0wH0xEzuEXLkUdMECGLytBGHNWBQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" height="397" width="640" /></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">电子产业的元年</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：战争结束，渴望拥有宽敞舒适的新房子，制造业茁壮成长，中产诞生</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">居者有其屋</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：政府提供住房福利政策及大量公共住房</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">郊区新生活</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：婴儿潮涌现，家庭规模扩大，私家车普及，“都市圈”及“卫星城”概念兴起，州际公路的扩张，市郊购物中心“Shopping Malls”的出现，市郊工业园的发展</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2)1968-1981年：危机年代——喧嚣与动荡</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8bZL1qSluQfyPLntDN1JfF6EYdv1h0iakSoPYuA1B3eHBDNsTlavyA7A/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="605" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="368.9835164835165" data-ratio="0.6099173553719008" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj82CtianqVXwAriaZ43W8PJOuwqDs5kFmYnjraOnpKw6CBkwJ5gaQQIKNQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="605" style="width: 546px;height: 333px;" /></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">喧嚣的尾声</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：住房福利机构改革引爆市场，民众害怕美元贬值，抢购保值的商品，市中心区的复兴</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">突如其来的危机</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：美国制造业受能源短缺和同业竞争的双重打击，一蹶不振，中产失业，公寓产生，新都市主义兴起</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">我之蜜糖</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：石油危机期间，德州因石油产业再次繁荣，相关产业崛起，开发商在美国跨地区全国运营</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3)1982-2007年：IT、金融时代——暗流涌动的新经济</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.67" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8fYMIKUnYfCYVuLbT1zQ9TV3A1ibqgSFRGEjVlw8ia72q3UHfUTNSPYJQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="600" /></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">梦想从车库里走出</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：乔布斯、比尔盖茨等缔造信息技术产业兴起，IT城市地产屡创新高</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">拔苗助长的政府</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：政府全面补贴需求端，推动房价上涨，出现巨大地产泡沫、信用风险</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">金融大爆炸</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：金融衍生品急速膨胀，监管缺席，货币超宽松时代，将地产泡沫越吹越大</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">兴衰迭起</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：国际开发和国际开发商涌现，新城市主义的持续发展，环境意识不断加强</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4)2008年至今：金融危机——大时代的落幕</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8LU35ic0mm6788NxLaeKzjMIsw8RZ8TTScHyVMccLbWI7bHAghKcngUA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="600" /></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">雷曼兄弟破产</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">钢铁已然生锈</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：老工业之城，产业转移，人口流失，收入骤降，房价暴跌，转型阵痛</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">一个时代的终结</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">：城镇化率近80%，生育率下降，住房拥有率高达69%，贫富差距大</span></section></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">目前中国比较像60年代的美国</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，过了行业起步红利和区域分化红利，面临经济增长危机、产业转型危机、企业发展危机，但城镇化红利、人口红利还在，住房拥有率还有提升空间，再加上核心城市的房子是优质资产，自带金融属性，很容易吸引资金的流入，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>接下来，国内房地产仍然会延续分化的局面</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">中国房地产发展还没落幕，但目前处于一个大周期的底部，需要等下一轮能源革命或技术革命。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">然而，2020年突发状况，影响席卷全球……</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8J3qV5IS3GFmgtFcyYaUDY2CheQnVOgq3NeBeib1CHx71LpDppDt0Arg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1023" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="556.467032967033" data-ratio="0.5434995112414467" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8AUD1Y4Sib1QFnCL8O7iaTOIlZ4BblJvvocZ0icunkbRGdhn3O7ovtxjbw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1023" style="height: 297px;white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>地产行业好坏参半，数据没有想象的差，但房企的流动性危机却如影随形</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，一些你想到或没想到的房企都在“暴雷”、“裁员”或“躺平”。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.9333333333333333" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8dzYJbHia5rVhulez26IdAhfw3JwkXtX1cRthXmV7LTbXCQC4uaRfRIQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="885" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">网传房企“暴雷”名单</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>从历史出发，我们是如何一次又一次穿越风暴，不断紧跟时代发展去做调整的。回溯地产研究的起步阶段——</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2005年的手工时代，我们做决策的依据还是靠人工、拍脑袋。</span></strong></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 16px;">首先基于政府行政区和政府街道，考虑历史发展形成的房地产市场板块，同时参考城市规划情况进行片区划分。</span></em></span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 16px;">其次通过大量人工统计各片区的医疗设施、商业设施、景观绿化、教育设施和地铁站点，并给这些配套人工打分来评价各片区的优劣。</span></em></span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 16px;">然后根据当时近几年片区市场的销售量、销售均价的基数和变化率，综合判断其发展情况，并作出定性的判断和定性的投资意见。</span></em></span></section></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2015年的大数据时代，禾略首创通过数据算法模型，结合地理信息化技术，将粗放的决策模式，落到精确科学的方法论，形成对地产投资开发的精细化科学指引。</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.5" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8ffDjUMQqKLhTtdXLtFfKtdd01UmaN5unvSvVnXLhtZiatxtC8MvdcUA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">禾略正式提出“量化投资决策”，通过大数据+算法的方式进行地产专业化研判，并正式推出“城市地图”产品，用客观的视角解读城市。</span><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8ZF7ERBkulU2RdY2wy6kMITVPIQHCM3jJiaKIqxpoxSdRFusje1bGlbg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2017年企业迎接“第四次工业革命”，在两年方法论的沉淀下，大数据时代下，信息高速流通，我们为了抓住城市的每一瞬，可以立刻显示城市的这部分与其他时刻的不同。</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">表格和图解可以表明进一步的长期变化趋势，以及在它们出现时，第一时间为研究者提供观察的平台。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>禾略推出地产DAAS信息化产品——禾略种子，为合作伙伴提供完善的投资研判工作数据抓手工具。</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.49416666666666664" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8z2J2RlffhibLRxYicseQsR5Qy511MJRZ0jXIOSRfTrHFHhy7gdZ1uekQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1200" style="" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">近几年，我们也会发现地产数据化信息研究平台也在影响其他行业，比如百度慧眼等。同时地产行业也涌现了一批优秀的做系统平台的公司，比如脉策等。</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">到2022年，行业再一次进入一个新的阶段，未来也只有“数据型企业”才能更好生存下来</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。在过去十几年的技术变迁中，唯一不变的就是我们对“价值”的追求。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">禾略种子进入改版周期，将原有“盒子”的系统载体，转变为纯互联网化的服务载体，降低客户使用系统的门槛，同年，种子系统开始扩展“客研”方向功能。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5047318611987381" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj81BZEEMiccIPWMl2XUZvCsTXibrOMN6fpdad2pN7tOIgxTbLqvfOwTNXA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1268" style="" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">禾略种子的“客户支付力地图”及“客研地图”，前者通过大数据+算法的形式帮助开发商解决“客户在哪”的问题，后者帮助开发商通过自己“成交、到访、客研”等“私域数据”，开展综合研究工作。</span><br /></p><table style="width: 100%;" width="-175"><tbody><tr><td width="0.0" height="20.466978" style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;word-break: break-all;"><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5047318611987381" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8WcDQiaNGVTZC53yiavziaT7xkPlU2FmezPENbodRPoZnFIBTg8XB2eNqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1268" style="" /></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;"><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5047318611987381" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8pkJxiaxqtpNUk0O0ICFQVic9bbuNn1GYmyngkewymtcbfdrmxrwoOXHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1268" style="" /></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">无论是“提高效率，减少浪费”的决策价值，还是对于房屋至于客户的价值定义，在这一轮风暴过后，房企如何高质量创造价值，也决定了他们能否继续发展。</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">禾略开展研发“数字化城市地图”产品，实现一键生成完整客户地图报告，同时支持用户自定义数据源及分析方式，快速开展多维度研究分析工作——</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5225752508361204" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7gVqDRvh6aZRSLbdvuPvj8B3Cd4ZO2Mib1St8b96okfttLQricASA00nJZ5icFLWsqXGebZlXhGUwEg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1196" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">· 结语&nbsp;·</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">更远的将来，随着国内住房供给体系的不断完善和经济产业结构的持续升级，中国房地产市场虽不再延续过往20年突飞猛进式的发展，但我们依然可以期待进入一个健康、有序、平稳增长的新常态。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">房地产的发展正是从风口回归到地上，而我们每一个地产人都将是见证者和参与者。同时工作方法的更新迭代，更需要我们每一个地产人的努力，共同期待美好的明天。</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">///</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">视频回顾地产晃荡40年</span></p><section class="channels_iframe_wrp"><mpvideosnap class="js_uneditable custom_select_card channels_iframe videosnap_video_iframe" data-pluginname="videosnap" data-id="export/UzFfAgtgekIEAQAAAAAAEysX20COQAAAAAstQy6ubaLX4KHWvLEZgBPE2YNsVioMNuGBzNPgMIt3DxyaMXmblY6XbYbn4BAS" data-url="https://findermp.video.qq.com/251/20304/stodownload?encfilekey=rjD5jyTuFrIpZ2ibE8T7YmwgiahniaXswqzzwUjExIvfSAOUmlXP3BibXc5ibhoERQt7prKcTWTt6DQZFwN2rbqQib6TxUBmQ8oDsJS2H7d135g2g4TB6cmxArQg&amp;adaptivelytrans=0&amp;bizid=1023&amp;dotrans=0&amp;hy=SH&amp;idx=1&amp;m=&amp;scene=0&amp;token=cztXnd9GyrHqpzddbNnZtTMiaOdzquz1MnVGynHpMuWIh4KEX6BLEFykwcH4tjZ5suuOzZoA2ekY" data-headimgurl="http://wx.qlogo.cn/finderhead/WAibKjHvK5nH8vQfZJqhgU8iaf6rKibyr5AcjgWVXicz6hLz3KmpZ9sBLw/0" data-username="v2_060000231003b20faec8c4e18d10cbd6c80dee34b07736396e416723fd5650a5715e7448b841@finder" data-nickname="禾略" data-desc="【地产1980-2022】从风口回到大地" data-nonceid="16972871284220700218" data-type="video" data-authiconurl="https://dldir1v6.qq.com/weixin/checkresupdate/icons_filled_channels_authentication_enterprise_a2658032368245639e666fb11533a600.png" data-width="1920" data-height="1080"></mpvideosnap></section><section style="line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·「禾略问答」·</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word 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