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地产最后幸存者:龙湖手握百亿可持续收入

发布于 2025-08-30

<section data-mpa-md-root="t" data-mpa-md-template="1"><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsql1gnv" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">这份由J.P. Morgan于2025年8月16日发布的研究报告聚焦龙湖集团(0960.HK)的盈利预警公告,核心内容如下:</span></span></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsqm1nv1" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利预警核心数据</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上半年业绩</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:龙湖预计2025年上半年核心净利润(剔除公允价值变动)同比暴跌70%至14亿元人民币,报表净利润同比下降45%(J.P. Morg</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">an预测为1%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全年展望</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计2025年全年核心净利润将维持在30-40亿人民币(低于预期的90亿),主要受开发业务(DP)低利润率项目拖累,存在进一步下行</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsqp14hu" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2. 业绩下滑原因</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发业务(DP)困境</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:近年为保现金流,龙湖以极低毛利率(0-5%)销售项目,导致净亏损。未入账项目的低利润率将持续压制利润。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收入结构变化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:投资性物业(IP)及物业服务收入保持小幅增长(预计低个位数百分比),但无法抵消DP业务下滑。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsqr2wz" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3. 市场关注点转移</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">生存能力与现金流</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:投资者更关注公司生存能力而非历史盈利。龙湖上半年经营性现金流(OCF)保持为正,符合管理层指引。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">销售与债务</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年迄今合约销售同比下滑约30%,但若跌幅控制在40%以内且不新增土储,OCF仍可维持正值。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">年内到期境内债券已全部偿还,债务水平稳步下降。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">转型方向</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:长期看,龙湖将逐步转向资产管理模式,需关注其经常性收入(如租金、服务)的净利润增长。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsqvkv" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4. 股价与政策影响</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">短期策略</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:若政策支持落地(如地产刺激政策),龙湖股价或有超30%上涨空间,适合作为战术性配置。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">长期潜力</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:待亏损土储消化后(预计需数年),经常性收入年净利润或超100亿人民币,可能成为 turnaround 标的。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场反应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:非困境房企的盈利预警近年对股价冲击有限。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsqy23b0" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">5. 同业比较与历史数据</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">同业表现</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:绿城中国(3900.HK)、万科(2202.HK)等房企近期盈利预警后股价波动较小。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">龙湖历史</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2023-2024年核心净利润连续下滑,但股价对盈利预警反应逐渐钝化。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsr01v3o" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">6. 风险与免责声明</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">J.P. Morgan利益披露</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:与龙湖存在投行业务合作,可能持有其债务头寸,且未来3个月内可能寻求投行服务补偿。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">评级与目标价</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:当前评级“增持”(OW),目标价14港元(较当前约9.8港元有43%上行空间)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsr2431" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论</span></span></strong></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="memhqsr21ohc" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">龙湖短期受开发业务拖累,但现金流稳健和政策预期提供支撑;长期转型资产管理或带来价值重估。投资者需权衡政策风险与经常性收入的增长潜力。</span></span></span></span></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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