埋伏了5年才等到爆发！

<section data-tool="mdnice编辑器" data-website="https://www.mdnice.com" style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 10px;padding-right: 10px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;font-family: Optima, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, PingFangSC-regular, serif;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.5em;word-spacing: 0em;letter-spacing: 0em;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;text-align: left;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><hr style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 3px;border-left-width: 3px;border-right-width: 3px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: 1px;" /><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">在市场追逐AI、新能源热点概念的今天，越来越多普通投资者被“高波动”折磨得筋疲力尽：追进去就被套，卖出去就上涨，折腾一年下来不仅没赚到钱，本金反而亏了不少。越来越多人开始转身寻找“低估值、高分红”的稳健标的，毕竟拿分红、赚业绩增长的钱，听起来比炒概念踏实太多。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">今天我们要拆解的这份新鲜出炉的机构深度研报，主角就是2025年刚刚创下五年最佳业绩的环保热能龙头——长青集团（002616.SZ）。从财务数据来看，这份成绩单确实亮眼：净利润同比大涨29.33%，经营现金流更是增长超过37%，资产负债率从73%大幅降到62%，还推出了10派2.5元的分红方案，算下来股息率直接摸到了5.3%，对比当前一年期定存不到2%的收益，这个分红吸引力可以说相当足。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">但光鲜的数据背后，研报也藏着没那么起眼的隐忧：全年营收同比下滑了3%，扣非净利润更是下跌超过26%，这样的增长真的可持续吗？低于行业平均的估值，是真的被市场低估，还是另有原因？今天我们就顺着原报告的脉络，把这家公司的基本面、行业逻辑、风险点拆解得明明白白，给想要布局高股息红利股的朋友做个参考。</span></p><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(76, 175, 80);align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 4px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(76, 175, 80);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;font-weight: bold;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span leaf="">一、长青集团到底是做什么的？五年磨一剑的业绩答卷</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">很多普通投资者对长青集团这个名字可能不太熟悉，其实这是一家扎根环保热能领域多年的老牌企业，当前实际控制人为何启强，总股本8.59亿股，总市值大概40.6亿元，截至2026年7月31日的收盘价为4.72元/股。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">从主营业务来看，公司的核心赛道非常清晰，就是三块：生物质发电、集中供热和垃圾发电，都是和民生、环保刚需绑定的领域，并不像很多热点概念那样需要炒“未来预期”，基本上都是当年投产当年就能产生稳定现金流的生意，这也是它能支撑高分红的基础。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">从2025年的整体业绩来看，公司确实交出了五年来最好的一份答卷：全年实现营业收入36.66亿元，同比微降3.17%；实现归母净利润2.80亿元，同比大增29.33%；经营活动产生的现金流净额达到8.11亿元，同比增长更是达到37.13%，这份现金流数据在整个环保行业都属于非常亮眼的水平。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">除了营收利润，最值得关注的就是资产负债表的改善：过去公司因为项目扩张，资产负债率一度高达73.23%，这也让很多投资者担心公司的偿债压力；经过2025年一年的调整，资产负债率直接降到了62.35%，不仅财务结构优化了很多，每年需要支付的财务费用也少了一大块，这也是今年净利润能大幅增长的重要原因之一。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">而最吸引普通投资者的，就是这次的分红方案：公司2025年拟推出每10股派发现金红利2.5元的分红方案，按照当前4.72元的股价计算，股息率直接达到了约5.3%，对比2023、2024年大约3%的股息率，这次分红力度可以说是大幅提升，也难怪市场直接把它归为“优质红利股”。</span></p><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(76, 175, 80);align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 4px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(76, 175, 80);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;font-weight: bold;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span leaf="">二、行业层面：政策东风+成本下降，环保热能赛道迎来拐点</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">从行业层面来看，长青集团能在2025年迎来业绩和资产负债表的双重改善，并不是偶然，背后是整个环保热能赛道的红利释放。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">首先，整个环保热能行业一直是政策重点支持的方向。不管是生物质发电还是垃圾焚烧发电，都是处理农林废弃物、城市生活垃圾的核心方式，既解决了环保痛点，又能产出电力和热力供社会使用，属于典型的“变废为宝”的朝阳行业，最近这些年从中央到地方，都有持续的补贴和政策支持，行业整体的需求一直保持稳定增长，并没有太大的周期性波动。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">其次，最近两年行业的经营成本一直在持续下降。对于长青集团这类发电供热企业来说，最大的成本就是生物质原料成本，过去几年因为原料收储、运输等环节的波动，成本一度走高；最近两年随着产业链的逐步成熟，加上国内物流成本的下降，原料成本逐步回落，直接带动了公司毛利率和净利率的提升，这也是利润增长的重要支撑。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">另外，行业整体的资产负债表修复已经基本完成。过去很多环保企业因为跑马圈地扩项目，积累了比较高的负债率，财务压力很大；经过最近五六年的去杠杆、优化结构，整个行业的负债率都在逐步下降，越来越多的企业开始能把赚来的现金流拿出来分红，而不是全部拿去还债、投新项目，这也是最近两年环保板块高股息标的越来越多的核心原因。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">对于追求稳定收益的长期资金来说，高分红、稳现金流的属性吸引力越来越强，这也给长青集团这类标的带来了更多的资金关注。</span></p><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(76, 175, 80);align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 4px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(76, 175, 80);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;font-weight: bold;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span leaf="">三、财务拆解：亮眼数据背后藏着哪些细节？</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">接下来我们拆解一下具体的财务数据，看看这份五年最佳业绩，到底成色几何，我们拿2023到2025年三年的核心数据对比来看：</span></p><section data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;overflow-x: auto;"><table style="display: table;text-align: left;"><thead><tr><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">指标</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">2023年</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">2024年</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">2025年</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">2026年一季度</span></section></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">营业收入(亿元)</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">37.86</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">37.86</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">36.66</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约8.0</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">归母净利润(亿元)</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">2.17</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">2.17</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">2.80</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约0.5</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">经营现金流(亿元)</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">5.91</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">5.91</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">8.11</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">-</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">股息率</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约3%</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约3%</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">5.3%</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">-</span></section></td></tr></tbody></table></section><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">从这个表格我们能看到几个非常明显的变化：</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">第一，营收连续两年停滞之后，2025年出现了小幅下滑，2023年营收37.86亿，2024年持平，2025年降到36.66亿，同比下滑3.17%，说明公司的业务扩张其实已经进入了瓶颈期，并没有找到新的增长点来拉动营收增长。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">第二，净利润和现金流在营收下滑的背景下反而大幅增长，刚才我们提到了，一方面是成本下降，另一方面是资产负债率下降带来的财务费用减少。2025年公司的净利率达到7.6%，对比前两年确实有明显的改善，盈利能力确实是在提升的。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">第三，经营现金流的改善非常显著，2025年经营现金流8.11亿，比2023、2024年的5.91亿增长了超过37%，这说明公司的回款能力变强了，很多项目的现金流进入了稳定产出期，不需要再持续投入资金，这也是能支撑大额分红的基础——毕竟要是赚的都是应收账款，根本拿不出真金白金来分红。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">从资产负债端来看，2025年资产负债率从73.23%降到62.35%，将近11个点的下降，说明公司过去几年扩张带来的负债压力已经得到了充分释放，财务安全边际比之前高了很多，抗风险能力也更强了。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">总的来说，从财务层面我们能得到的结论是：长青集团的业务已经从“扩张期”进入了“收获期”，虽然没有新的增长拉动营收，但内部挖潜、降本减债带来的利润增长非常扎实，现金流和分红能力确实上了一个台阶。</span></p><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(76, 175, 80);align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 4px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(76, 175, 80);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;font-weight: bold;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span leaf="">四、估值对比：真的被低估了吗？</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们再来看估值，原报告把长青集团的核心估值指标和环保行业的均值做了对比：</span></p><section data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;overflow-x: auto;"><table style="display: table;text-align: left;"><thead><tr><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">估值指标</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">长青集团</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">环保行业均值</span></section></th><th style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: bold;background: none left top / auto no-repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgb(240, 240, 240);height: auto;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-radius: 0px;padding: 5px 10px;min-width: 85px;"><section><span leaf="">对比情况</span></section></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">PE(TTM)</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约14.5倍</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约25倍</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">低于行业均值</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">PB</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约1.2倍</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约1.5倍</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">略低于行业均值</span></section></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: left;background-position-y: top;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;width: auto;height: auto;"><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">股息率</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约5.3%</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">约2%</span></section></td><td style="padding-top: 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;min-width: 85px;border-top-style: solid;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: solid;border-right-style: solid;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-bottom-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-left-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-right-color: rgba(204, 204, 204, 0.4);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;"><section><span leaf="">远高于行业均值</span></section></td></tr></tbody></table></section><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">从这个对比我们能非常清楚地看到：长青集团当前的估值水平确实偏低，不管是市盈率还是市净率，都低于环保行业的平均水平，而股息率是行业平均的两倍还多。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">为什么会出现这种估值折价？其实核心原因就是市场对环保行业整体的增长预期不高，很多资金都去追高增长的赛道了，对于这种稳增长、高分红的成熟企业，愿意给的估值溢价就比较低。但对于追求稳定收益的投资者来说，这种低估值+高股息的组合，反而非常有吸引力：你不需要赚估值大幅上涨的钱，光是每年5%以上的分红，就已经比很多理财、存款收益高了，如果未来估值修复到行业平均水平，还能额外赚一笔估值抬升的钱。</span></p><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(76, 175, 80);align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 4px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(76, 175, 80);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;font-weight: bold;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span leaf="">五、不能忽视的风险：光鲜数据背后的两个隐忧</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">当然，我们分析一只股票，不能只看亮点，还要把风险说透，原报告里也明确点出了两个不能忽视的核心风险，我们拆开来说：</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">第一个风险就是营收连续下滑的压力。我们看前面的财务数据，2025年营收同比下滑了3.17%，已经是连续两年没有增长了，这说明公司目前确实没有找到新的增长点，现有项目的产能释放已经进入了稳态，如果未来营收继续下滑，就算成本再怎么降，利润增长也很难持续。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">第二个风险是扣非净利润的下滑。原报告里明确提到，2025年公司扣非净利润同比下滑了26.27%，这个下滑幅度其实不算小，也就是说，公司这次29%的净利润增长，其实不是主营业务带来的，而是有一部分非经常性损益的贡献。当然，原报告也提到，净利润和现金流的改善是实实在在的，扣非下滑虽然是隐忧，但并没有影响到整体的业绩改善趋势，我们只需要知道这个风险点，持续跟踪后续的扣非数据就可以。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">这两个风险发生的概率和影响都是中等，算不上会让公司伤筋动骨的黑天鹅，但对于普通投资者来说，买入前一定要知道这些隐患，不能只看5.3%的股息率就盲目下手。</span></p><h2 data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(76, 175, 80);align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: solid;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 4px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;line-height: 1.5em;margin-top: 30px;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(76, 175, 80);line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0em;font-weight: bold;align-items: unset;background-attachment: scroll;background-clip: border-box;background-color: transparent;background-image: none;background-origin: padding-box;background-position-x: 0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: auto;border-top-style: none;border-bottom-style: none;border-left-style: none;border-right-style: none;border-top-width: 1px;border-bottom-width: 1px;border-left-width: 1px;border-right-width: 1px;border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: none;display: block;flex-direction: unset;float: unset;height: auto;justify-content: unset;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;overflow-x: unset;overflow-y: unset;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;text-shadow: none;transform: none;width: auto;-webkit-box-reflect: unset;"><span leaf="">六、投资结论：低估值高股息的优质标的，值得积极布局</span></span></h2><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">综合上面的分析，原报告给出的投资结论非常清晰：长青集团作为环保热能的龙头企业，2025年已经迎来了业绩、现金流、资产负债表的多重改善，当前估值偏低，5.3%的高股息非常有吸引力，是非常优质的高分红红利股，给出的操作建议是“积极增持”。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">我们顺着原报告的脉络再梳理一遍核心逻辑，其实投资这家公司的核心逻辑非常简单：</span></p><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;padding-left: 25px;padding-right: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">赛道稳定：环保热能属于刚需领域，现金流稳定，受经济周期波动影响小，适合长期持有；</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">业绩改善：降本减债之后，净利润和现金流大幅增长，资产负债表更加健康，抗风险能力提升；</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">估值便宜：PE只有14.5倍，远低于行业平均，安全边际足够；</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;color: rgb(1, 1, 1);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;font-weight: normal;"><span leaf="">分红诱人：5.3%的股息率，远超理财和存款，适合想要拿稳定收益的投资者。</span></section></li></ol><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">当然，我们也需要记住两个核心风险：营收增长乏力、扣非净利润下滑，需要后续持续跟踪公司的业务拓展情况，看看能不能找到新的增长点来拉动营收增长，化解这个隐忧。</span></p><p data-tool="mdnice编辑器" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.8em;letter-spacing: 0em;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;padding-top: 8px;padding-bottom: 8px;padding-left: 0px;padding-right: 0px;"><span leaf="">总的来说，对于厌倦了市场追涨杀跌、想要配置一部分稳健高股息资产的普通投资者来说，长青集团确实是一个值得关注的标的，毕竟在当前40亿市值的品种里，能拿出5.3%股息率、8亿经营现金流的公司，其实并不多。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type 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