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城市研究架构系列(七):如何理解居民口袋里的“钱”?

发布于 2021-07-09

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style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(56, 55, 54);font-family: PingFangSC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="background-color: rgb(56, 55, 54);font-family: PingFangSC-Light;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;+预计阅读时间10分钟&nbsp;</em></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-family: PingFangSC-Light;font-size: 10px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 本文共3041字 」</span></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 530px;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 2em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">/// 前言 ///</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一个人智商的高低,通常取决于他头脑里有多少“<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>清晰且准确</strong></span>”的概念。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">但在数字化浪潮的时代,我们仍习惯于用模糊的概念去推测准确的结论,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>口径统一是一切比较的前提,概念识别是一切洞察的关键</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本文将以“钱”为例,谈谈有哪些概念需要识别,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>可以用哪些视角去观察“人”和“钱”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,具体将以下图为主要的阐述逻辑。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.725" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVP1n2f9VEx3F0yyhib6xA93XsSLuuUxeJBdAobe5XvljnGTEV0N9EgbA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1600" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">首先,我们需要用流量思维去理解“钱”,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>收入就是流入、消费就是流出、剩余就是存款</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,类同家里的蓄水池,它是个动态的变化过程。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">收入的多少和消费的高低,就是水量的大小,利率就是水价。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;"><strong>“先说说收入方面”</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们需要识别</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>收入和工资不一样</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。工资只是收入的一部分,特别是对于中高阶层来说,阶层越高,往往工资收入占比越低。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体来看,收入包括4个部分,分别是工资性收入、经营性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入。从全国平均水平看,具体占比情况如何?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="282" data-backw="257" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVxr9XIvnfKpWyiaiagejl7yib9ZV4icnoTDcXGnbB9LwROciblmXkOXdMoYw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="99.45692307692309" data-cropx2="845.3838461538462" data-cropy1="61.783846153846156" data-cropy2="955.3892307692308" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.1997319034852547" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVy0WFibnGkwfknJYzozJsibyJtdHLjMuomQvTyLibT3EOolib3p7YhNibrBA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="746" style="width: 495px;height: 593px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">今年2月份,国家统计局公布了2020年我国城镇居民人均可支配收入为4.4万元。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1.工资收入:普通打工人工资收入占比60.4%;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2.经营收入:做生意小老板经营收入占比11.4%;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3.财产收入:金融房产大佬财产收入占比10.4%;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4.转移收入:退休金、公积金、贫穷地区的财政性转移收入占比17.9%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>工资只是收入的一部分,整体占比为六成</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">对于不同城市而言,我们以60.4%为标尺线,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>发现深圳打工赚钱是绝对的主流,工资收入占比高达81.6%,而上海只有57.6%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,低于全国平均水平。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="271" data-backw="301" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVxr9XIvnfKpWyiaiagejl7yib9ZV4icnoTDcXGnbB9LwROciblmXkOXdMoYw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="947.6005747126435" data-cropx2="1953.370689655172" data-cropy1="93.46374045801527" data-cropy2="953.3301526717557" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8578528827037774" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVTLTkzic2NCMZR5x6BSBnFtiaSA5193nnVpNuVJI7ofDcJaPoS7xX4muA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1006" style="width: 536px;height: 460px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这说明研究深圳客群收入时,工资的有效性高达8成(毕竟其他几个收入指标很难准确落位到个体或群体)。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上海则要考虑其他收入情况,其中,经营性收入占比也很低,只有3.2%,说明在上海高昂的成本下,普通老百姓开厂、开铺、创业赚钱非常难;财产性收入为14.5%,比全国高出近4%,意味着早期资产配置收益不错;而转移收入高达24.7%,这个主要是老龄化带来的政府巨额支出。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">说到这里,很多人会说上个月国家统计局公布2020年,全国城镇非私营单位就业人员年<strong>平均工资为9.7万元</strong><strong>。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><br /></strong><strong>不是说工资是收入的一部分吗?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">为何变成工资是收入的2.2倍。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">秘密在于,收入计算的是<strong>城市每个人</strong>,包括老人、小孩、家庭主妇,工资统计的是<strong>上班族个人</strong>。所以,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>是统计范围的差异,带来数据量级的不同</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">"再来聊聊存款"</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">存款的第一步就是需要识别主体,钱是谁的?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通常有</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>5个主体</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,结合最新2021年全国境内存款225.6万亿来看各项存款的比例:住户存款:43.7%、非金融企业存款:30.5%、机关团体存款:13.9%、财政性存款:2.6%、非银行业金融机构存款:9.3%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">居民和企业存款占据7成,同理这个思维也可以应用到不同城市,对比全国平均情况,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>看看不同城市财富的聚集差异。</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">哪些城市藏富于民?哪些聚集在少量的企业中?哪些是政府比较富足等等。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以深圳为例,看下深圳和全国的存款差异:</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6921555702043507" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVrUYPvicTOh4Vlm1wic9fqtZl24GrtsHeL8v0nI6Dyk8licYWaREWKSmzQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1517" style=""></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们可以清晰的看到</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳打工人没啥存款,钱都在企业手中</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一方面是受到年轻化的影响,年轻人需要买房,同时消费欲望更强,存留的比例就少;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">另一方面,可以很好的解释深圳的企业就业中心是绝对的中心,为何过去10年“老城”罗湖衰落极其厉害,“新城”南山崛起异常澎湃,因为南山高新区集聚深圳70%的上市企业,受南山辐射的西乡,都已经要“秒杀”罗湖了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">所以,钱在哪,中心就在哪。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">有兴趣的朋友,可以对比下其他城市的数据,或许可以发现为何上海、北京、南京、广州<span style="font-size: 16px;">的</span>“老城”衰落没那么明显,甚至还出现新兴活力,或许是他们的居民存款比例相对高,因为“老城”往往是居民聚集密度最高的地方,剩余财富(老钱)的聚集地。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">除此之外,由存款引申出来,还有个贷款,下面介绍几个概念和现象:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">① </span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>消费贷</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:主要为个人消费相关的贷款,比如买个苹果手机分期,当然最大的消费贷款,就是买房,其次是买车。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以通常笔者会用</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>中长期消费贷款</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">来定义房地产相关贷款,因为超过5年的消费贷款基本就是房地产。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />从全国来看,2014年之前基本处于50-55%的水平,2016年开始提升一个台阶,2020年达到64.6%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5776965265082267" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVSZ6J1GDnxO8EoWBOMDiaicxMNGL2VibJeVh5s7jNILb4ib5TYkibPK2lpng/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1641" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">② </span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>经营贷</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:主要是企业为了维持经营或扩大再生产而进行的贷款,去年疫情,一个有意思的现象——政府为了支持企业渡过疫情,出台很多经营贷款的政策,但最后新闻报道的则是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>经营贷款流入房地产的情况</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">③ </span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>储蓄率</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:它其实是个未雨绸缪,用于应对风险,或者日常消费的存款金额所对应的比例。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">疫情期间,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>很多发达国家居民需要食品救济,就是因为储蓄率极低</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,就是俗话说的“今朝有酒今朝醉”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />笔者翻阅了一下,百度里头对储蓄率的解释,是指个人可支配收入总额中储蓄额所占的百分比,从量化的角度来说,并不是很好统计,因为可支配收入是个增量值,而储蓄额是个累计值,比方说很多老人的存款可能是10年前。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以我们可以简单用:</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>(人均可支配收入-人均消费)/人均可支配收入来计算,2020年我国平均储蓄率就是:34.1%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">(全年全国居民人均可支配收入32189元,全年全国居民人均消费支出21210元)。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">相当于2020年,我国居民赚3块,花2块,存1块。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">④ </span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>贷存比</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:这个指标主要是用来衡量泡沫,当然泡沫是个中性词,因为没有泡沫,通常就没有超额收益,在泡沫不破灭的前提下,都是越高越好。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">比如美国金融危机的时候,这个指标基本达到150%的水平,简单来说,就是全国平均下来口袋只有100块,借了150块,意味着很多人借了200、甚至300块,这样就很容易出现现金流断裂,从而引发断供潮,特别是在加息的背景下。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />2020年我国居民贷存比67.6%,但全社会是81%,说明企业和政府负债很高,过去几年,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>房地产暴涨背后的资金流向,是政府负债转移到居民负债</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,企业去杠杆一直是这几年的主基调,当然因为疫情原因,去年稍有放松。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">⑤ </span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>降准</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:是国家控制水量大小的方式</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,如果M2是总水量,那降准就是控制水龙头开关大小的一个方式,所以我们经常可以看到央行降准释放多少流动性,降准后释放出来的资金用于借贷后,因为资金的流动性,通常能产生9倍的乘数效应。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">⑥</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"> <strong>降息</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:是国家控制水价的方式</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,利息的下降会让老百姓更愿意花钱,因为把钱存到银行里不赚钱,就导致钱的流动性越高,也就是说,把钱放到蓄水池里不赚钱,自然大家就想把钱花出去,流动性就高了起来。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />所以,价格(利息)越高,通常流动性越弱;价格(利息)越低,通常流动性越强。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">打个比喻,就是如果水价为0,那老百姓肯定是按需使用,通常不会有所节制,用水量极大;如果水价为1万/吨,老百姓肯定是能不洗澡就不洗澡。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">因很多读者反映架构文章篇幅有点长,所以消费方面就没有举例系统说明,大家有兴趣可以尝试并挖掘,欢迎沟通探讨。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">简要说下,消费包括衣食住行医疗教育等8个方面,通常不包括房地产销售,对应到房地产开发领域中,是个购物中心业态匹配的过程;消费单价对应品牌与档次的差异。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>因为商业的开发与定位大多是个商业需求整合的过程</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,从远到近、从户外到室内、从零散到集中,需求创造这事往往难能可贵,而且难以复制。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;">/// 小结 ///</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本文主要分享了基于</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>流量思维体系下,“钱”的相关概念识别及关系梳理</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,具体结合全国及其典型城市的情况做解读说明,再次总结这次核心分享的5个架构思维:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-weight: bold;"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">收入-消费-存款:收入就是流入、消费就是流出、剩余就是存款;</span></strong></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-weight: bold;"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">收入与工资:工资不等于收入,等级越高,占比越低;</span></strong></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-weight: bold;"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">主体思维看存款:百姓、企业、政府、非银机构等,先看钱,再看人,钱在哪中心就在哪;</span></strong></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-weight: bold;"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">贷存比:是个获取超额收益与风险识别的双重指标;</span></strong></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-weight: bold;"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">降准降息:分别对应的是水量、水价的变化力度。</span></strong></p></li></ul><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">大家对城市研究感兴趣,想做进一步交流</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">欢迎加钟老师微信,期待观点碰撞<br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVDJsVSKBhKLPTncVXuIRkvSFbic1hOb0fyno5O5RenSYsxyYYcYJBCPg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="430" style="" /></p><section style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">- 小军怼城系列持续更新中&nbsp;-</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;"><a target="_blank" 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