城市研究架构系列（五）

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 562px;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><img data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="390" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="575" data-ratio="1.5197740112994351" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjjlI7IymK65uUkxYZTeb3HrX4X4enfbMbk1VDeR2ib2q7IwGOTuSq0xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="354" style="height: 383px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;width: 252px;"></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 562px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 5px 15px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><section style="letter-spacing: -1px;text-align: right;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: -20px;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;z-index: 0;text-align: center;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 270.797px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><p style="text-align:center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 10px;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 10px;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;caret-color: red;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="line-height: 34px;">人口的本质是结构问题</span></strong></span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">随着“七普”数据和“三胎政策”的横空出世，关于人口的话题络绎不绝，本人也想说说“人口的问题”，系统的梳理下</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>可以从哪些维度看待人口问题？</strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="258" data-backw="562" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.45892494929006084" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwAVibtYP0SrRw352gkJKrumwdMWufx6YClibhfmHMoY7uXkIPKK0YS2tnxicg3sianO2KueEOvhJMTxw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1972" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">先重点说说</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>人口的空间结构</strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">全国14.12亿人口中，居住在城镇的人口为9.02亿人，占63.89%，有5.1亿人口还在农村，所以大部分人会说城镇化还有空间，我想说的是，作为房地产开发者：</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">一方面，需要清楚很多中东部区域即将进入70%的稳定期，同时还有很多中西部区域还处于50%-60%的水平，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>内部结构差异巨大</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">另一方面，我们还需要清楚“城”同“镇”的差异，“城”通常是市区，“镇”通常指的是县城。所以</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>三元层级的空间结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">可以理解为“城-镇-村”，结合中国的实际行政情况可以粗略的等同于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>“市区-县城-乡村”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图1：三元层级的全国人口地域结构</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="382" data-backw="558" data-ratio="0.6849507735583685" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMAaGvzRwhKI07dxRMKiaXGBy63EGn6dc87zCPUd0kUXGCiciaic6eBLiblhQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="711" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">我们查了下2019年的城区人口是4.35亿，可以推算出目前中国人口的空间格局是</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>“三足鼎立”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，小镇青年群体规模不容小觑，乡村人口还是最多的，但需要分区域看待城镇化潜力，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>聚焦高生育率的区域是个长期战略，没有增量哪来的存量？</strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">旁边的日本已经清晰的证明了这一点，没有增量的存量，宛如没有水源的湖水。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">具体看中国划分大-中-小城市的标准，指的是城区人口，不包括镇区、农村， 100、300、500万是几个划分界线，超过500万的被定义全国超大城市，以此来制定人口户籍政策，不是常住人口，所以</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>城区人口通常比常住人口更重要</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图2：以城区人口为基数的城市分类及户籍政策</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="274" data-backw="558" data-ratio="0.49126413155190135" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMf7YpWRJMIJib7Y1D4mZEf9eWBGlDo5x3qo6ZFocVOfhWKwrxGHNBqEg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="973" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">所以下图德科老师说的“人口向下、房价向上”，还需要看看城镇，特别是城区人口的变化如何？因为</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>房地产的开发，市区是这些小城市的绝对主导区域</strong>。<strong>大概率是</strong><strong>总人口是流出的，但城镇、城区人口在增长</strong>，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">同时还有个有趣的点就是因为前几年南京、苏州的房价暴涨，导致很多在南京、苏州的群体回乡务工&amp;置业，具体数据体现在人口流出的规模变化，如2015年人口流出200万，但2020年人口流出150万，如果就看截面数据流出150万就很惨，但拉出时间轴来看，就是有50万在南京、苏州打工的中高收入（相对于老家来说）群体回家了，他们的购房能力，就当地的房价水平来说就很强了，这就是经常说的</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>变化率比绝对值更重要</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，但很多人并不理解。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图3：截面常住人口流入流出与房价增长的关系</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><img data-backh="365" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.6318742985409652" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMsfHgA2fAeTYU87qSic1Apo3ibhQoMvfur9UHTuXeCJPHEFcdEo0XSqrA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="891" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin: 5px 16px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">前几年在年终分享会，我们也有分享这个话题，看下图某城城区人口的增长，6年接近倍增。我们也简单做了个统计，TOP30城市里头，房价5年（为了剔除周期波动影响）平均涨幅有一半是超过全国平均水平的，所以</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>简单的用人口流入流出是很片面的</strong>。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图4：城区人口往往比常住人口更重要</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="311" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.5384615384615384" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMbUJibB1FicRQl9oSXSIxkaBNQMZoMMcIXicN2Zsbibc4lpytAmRsBQ2lNA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="871" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">通过上述分析，我们应该可以理解为何说</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>城市化其实就是个人口的空间流动过程</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，把空间尺度放宽，可以有四种：</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="87758" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-autoskip="1" style="margin: 10px;padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 8px;color: rgb(116, 115, 122);letter-spacing: 1.5px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="caret-color: red;max-width: 100%;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;font-stretch: normal;line-height: normal;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">a.</span><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>国家间流动</strong></span><span style="caret-color: red;max-width: 100%;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;font-stretch: normal;line-height: normal;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">，即所谓的移民；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;color: rgb(116, 115, 122);letter-spacing: 1.5px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="caret-color: red;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">b.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;font-stretch: normal;line-height: normal;">&nbsp;</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>城市间维度</strong></span><span style="caret-color: red;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，即人口的流入流出；</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;color: rgb(116, 115, 122);letter-spacing: 1.5px;max-inline-size: 100%;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 0em;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">c.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;font-stretch: normal;line-height: normal;">&nbsp;</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>城乡间流动</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 0em;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，从农村到县城、从县城到市区；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;color: rgb(116, 115, 122);letter-spacing: 1.5px;max-inline-size: 100%;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 0em;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">d.&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>城市内部的流动</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 0em;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，从郊区到城区、从城区到郊区，美国70-80年代的逆城市化就说的是这事。</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 10px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">人口的空间流动，造就了中国轰轰烈烈的城市化运动，也滋养了一批又一批房地产开发企业，聚焦未来，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>不同集团的空间布局策略，本质上是一张预判2030年人口空间格局的愿景图</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，借助</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>“市区-县城-乡村”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">的思维格局，用</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>“变化的视角”看人口</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，以免被截面的数据所误导，畅想未来中国人口空间地图是相对合理的路径。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">就中国的<span style="color: black;">人口格局最终形态</span>而言，通常会有多种预判，主流的说法是以城市间的流动为主，最终形成若干个都市圈，类同日本，人口基本聚集在东京都市圈。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图5：日本人口空间分布在极少数都市区</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 10px;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">（总人口：1.26亿）</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="285" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.4937439846005775" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMVMkxS59GHcycrg0NfF9uGB7IAqKYSjL2JLPia5kpiccicukUQKC5eTMlA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1039" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">个人认为，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>除了经济规律带来的“大国大城”，还得考虑中国的特殊性</strong>：</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">一方面是</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>超大规模性</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，14亿人口的规模体量所需的城市数量是不一样；</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">另一方面是中国</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>超强的政治管理能力</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，从上文的截图可以看出，中国一直是在控制超大规模体量的城市人口增长，从实际来看，北京、上海的人口也确实在减少和减速，并没有出现所谓的上海人口会突破3000万，冲击5000万；</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">第三方面是中国</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>土地财政以及高房价格局</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">的影响，大部分普通居民已经失去了大城市置业能力和资格。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">所以我认为最终的格局形态，更多是</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>欧洲化，多元的空间格局支撑中国的超大规模性、唯有的政治力量、独特的高房价属性</strong>。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图6：多元化的欧洲人口空间形态</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="244" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.4212962962962963" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMIMupjBibgWadJ181iaiaiaXqP0qqElmA8n2mkEUyiaic81Zek9b0XTCJQK3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">除了人口的空间结构问题，还有以下几个维度同理可以深入挖掘展开：</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>年龄结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>、</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>家庭结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>、</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>收入结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>、</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>户籍结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>、</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>就业结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>、</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>性别结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>、</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>学历结构</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">等。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">以北京为例，来看看家庭结构里头的户均人口这个数据：</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">北京3人及以下为主占比80%，但对比上海，我们能发现其3人户及以上多很多，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>上海的家庭小型化更明显</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">；看自身趋势，除三人户减少3.7%，二人及以下和四人及以上分别增加3.3%、0.4%，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>呈现出两极化趋势</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，落到到居住空间需求就是潜在小面积单身公寓、大平层需求变多。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图7：北京不同人口户规模比例及其变化</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="453" data-backw="558" data-ratio="0.8120300751879699" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMOdupAAzaNnR1TFl0QDw004o9FmHFwco8ZAmSbAvoGBEEYVfNw9icfcg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="931" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">另外一个，剔除传统维度的收入视角，我们也可以从学历角度看看人口的结构演变如何。同样以北京为例，2019年大专及以上占比40%，高出全国25.4%；较2015年，专科、本科、研究生分别增加1%、1.4%、1.1% ，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>人</strong><strong>口质量提升相当显著，体现在房地产上，不仅仅是支付力的提高，</strong><strong>还有审美的变化、文化调性的诉求，</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: black;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">如精装风格的选择、生活场景的展示、社区平面的表达。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图8：北京人口受教育程度及其变化</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="443" data-backw="558" data-ratio="0.7941860465116279" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMvt56rhpa4IPJvllQWMzwFdcD0oFNqRHVM3Ziayb21lZ7xdX1q9BHEEg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="860" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">户籍结构方面，可以看看哪些城市是移民城市，哪些是本地城市，哪些是均衡型城市，这是非常有趣的点，因为本地人和外来人有非常天然的差别，差异巨大。本地人是享受生活的底层逻辑，只是有钱享受和没钱享受的差异；外地人是城市扎根，扎不下就会跑，是去和留的问题。除此之外，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>外地人对老城是没有情感的，所以对新区、新城的抗性低；本地人更讲究地缘性</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">，童年回忆啥的，即使外迁也更关注时间与空间距离。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: justify;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">图9：依据户籍结构特征的珠三角城市类型划分</span></strong></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 0px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="367" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.6357615894039735" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaqFD3wmb53s7FhLO3mibeMibZlvpdbCLOibn0yKvRv3JnxPZOT44QxZzQPq23M9xVLRDKzCMgkYtdg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="906" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-align:justify;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">最后想说的是，对于客研，不一定就得直接上问卷，可以先就已有人口数据识别人群方方面面的特征，对已有的数据，我们是否有更深刻、更全面的理解？毕竟这个方式是全样本量，不是抽样。</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>人口结构及其变化是把握大趋势，客户全生活场景挖掘的是小趋势，问卷调研是量化落地细节需求</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">因为是架构系列，再次回顾一下本文分享的8个视角看人口：</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin: 5px 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="87758" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-autoskip="1" style="margin: 10px;padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: dashed;border-color: #212122;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="padding-left: 30px;width: 100%;color: rgb(116, 115, 122);letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>八重结构看人口</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">：</span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">空间、年龄、家庭、收入、户籍、就业、性别、学历等；</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>三元层级看格局</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">：</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">市区-县城-乡村；</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>城区人口比常住人口更重要</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">：</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">一增一减是常有的事，不是重复统计；</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>变化率比绝对值更重要</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">：</span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">人口流出有可能是回流置业；</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>四种流动看趋势</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">：</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">国家间流动、城市间、城乡间、城市内部流动等；</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>面积功能看家庭</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">：</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">单身公寓主要看1-2人户、大平层看3-5人户的变化；</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>品牌调性看学历</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">：</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">高低学历审美的变化、文化调性的诉求差异大；</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(61, 170, 214);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>区位偏好看客源</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">：</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 10px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">外地人对新城的抗性低，本地人更讲究地缘性。</span></p></li></ul></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 10px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 10px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 10px;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.4166666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwBXeobibkwsIUUpeGv4ux4tvDyxpAwynqhBa7wEHtuboBjSnnfm2NKpemdDyfOJ5Az1tvTbYyWFnA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="108" style="margin-top: -4px;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 65px !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 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data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section 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