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失业率才是王道!美联储为何对7月疲软就业数据"视而不见"?​

发布于 2025-08-14

<h4 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600 !important;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">一、就业市场的"障眼法":新增岗位下滑≠经济衰退</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利报告直指关键矛盾:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">7月失业率稳定在4.2%</span></strong><span leaf="">(四舍五入精确值4.248%),与过去一年水平基本持平。这意味着什么呢?</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">美联储的逻辑链:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">劳动力供给(可工作人数)和需求(企业招工量)正在同步下降。好比水池的进水管和出水管同时关小,水位(失业率)自然保持稳定。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">数据魔鬼在细节:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">前两月新增就业被大幅下修25.8万人!近3个月平均月增岗位仅3.5万,较4月的12.7万断崖式下跌。</span></span></strong></li></ul><section><br /><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100041452" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkDic4ibvYZmO3ww6uZ1Df5aFUSHmn5cWQfAIKRuZJibwOWazZ4KCucEKIG6edMakiasnron20nJWgltw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: #888888;font-weight: normal;">(摩根士丹利图表显示:柱状图呈现明显下行趋势)</span></span></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">普通投资者需警惕</span></strong><span leaf="">:新增就业持续萎缩终将推高失业率,但当前更需紧盯8月失业率数据——这是美联储决策的"命门"。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600 !important;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">二、经济暗流涌动:三大风险正在发酵</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利坦言:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2025年没有降息</span></strong><span leaf="">(基准预测首次降息在2026年3月),源于三重高压锅效应:</span></p><h5 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600 !important;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">1. 贸易火药桶:集装箱锐减暗示衰退</span></strong></h5><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">中美航线集装箱运量周跌11.8%,船只数量减少21艘</span></section></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">关键信号<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">:关税导致贸易成本激增,7月运量下滑已非短期波动,而是结构性萎缩</span></span></strong></li></ul><section><br /><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100041453" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkDic4ibvYZmO3ww6uZ1Df5aFxQfjFTPQfvsrBxRtJJ8F3xialdvNVvFiaNILBo44UsUQibnkr8bU83drA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: #888888;">(图表显示:曲线呈陡峭下滑趋势)</span></span></section><h5 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600 !important;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2. 通胀回马枪:关税正在推高物价</span></strong></h5><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">摩根士丹利预测:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">核心PCE通胀(美联储最关注的指标)将在Q3冲上4.1%</span></strong></section></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">可怕循环:进口商品涨价 → 企业成本上升 → 终端消费涨价 → 工资被迫上涨 → 通胀自我强化</span></section></li></ul><h5 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600 !important;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">3. 政策不确定:企业不敢投资、家庭不敢消费</span></strong></h5><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">报告给出震撼数据:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">当前经济衰退概率已达40%</span></strong><span leaf="">。若贸易战升级,美联储可能紧急降息2.75%(基准预测仅1.75%),失业率将飙升至5.8%。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600 !important;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">三、普通人的财富指南:三个生存法则</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">基于摩根士丹利风险推演,我们提炼出实操建议:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">1. 盯紧失业率临界点</span></strong></p><blockquote style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-top: 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 4px solid var(--yb-md-blockquote-border-color);border-image: initial;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;quotes: none;color: var(--yb-md-blockquote-color);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">当失业率突破4.4%(摩根士丹利Q4预测值),美联储可能放弃抗通胀转向救经济,届时股市、债市将剧烈波动。</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2. 识别贸易战传导链</span></strong><br /><span leaf="">关注中美航线集装箱数据(公开可查):若周跌幅持续超10%,预示制造业收缩将蔓延至服务业,警惕零售、物流行业裁员潮。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">3. 通胀博弈中的机会</span></strong><br /><span leaf="">摩根士丹利指出:若通胀超预期(如核心PCE突破4.5%),美联储可能推迟降息但最终降幅更深。</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">此时长债ETF(如TLT)或有超额收益</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100041454" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkDic4ibvYZmO3ww6uZ1Df5aFh5E1PFpwTYFxK2m9JG1ZW4GIjKiatZ3krdicYEFZhRcGjLYQG0cW5Mhg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><section><section><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: #888888;">(图表显示:失业率曲线缓升,通胀曲线先扬后抑)</span></span></section><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600 !important;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">结语:在刀尖上跳舞的经济</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利用一句政治名言点破现状:</span></p><blockquote style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-top: 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 4px solid var(--yb-md-blockquote-border-color);border-image: initial;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;quotes: none;color: var(--yb-md-blockquote-color);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">"问题出在经济,笨蛋!"</span></strong><span leaf="">——1992年克林顿竞选标语穿越30年依然有效。</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">当新增就业崩塌但失业率维稳,当通胀升温但美联储按兵不动,2025年的经济正行走在微妙平衡木上。普通人的破局点在于:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">忘记短期数据波动,紧盯失业率、集装箱、通胀三盏信号灯</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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