好房子引爆五重共振，核心城市反转在即！

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">对申万宏源房地产行业深度研究报告（2025年9月10日发布）主要内容的详细总结：</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心观点：</span></span></strong></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房地产行业当前面临基本面困境（居民资产负债表走弱导致置换链不畅、量价无法正向循环）和政策面约束（高质量发展要求非全局加杠杆）。报告提出“好房子”政策是另辟蹊径的破局之道，将引领核心城市形成“五重利好共振”，推动核心城市率先筑底改善，最终实现“由结构复苏带动全局复苏”的路径。</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要内容总结：</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业现状：困境与约束</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需求见底但消费降级：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;全国及主流27城一二手房合计成交总量已稳定3年多（约14亿平/年），表明广义需求已见底。但二手房成交占比提升、新房占比下降，显示居民住房消费总体处于降级趋势。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">量价循环失效：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;二手房成交持续放量（2025年前8月主流27城同比+8%），但房价（成交价指数、挂牌价指数）仍未止跌回稳，出现“量涨价不涨”甚至“放量下跌”的反常现象，历史“量在价先”经验失效。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">困境核心：中产走弱 + 需求分层</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房价下跌、经济放缓导致中产资产负债表受损，置换链（刚需-&gt;改需-&gt;豪宅）不畅。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场格局：二手房“刚需化”（低总价占比提升），新房“改善化/豪宅化”（大户型占比提升），一二手房市场脱钩。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359239" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG55NMUts9icFYiaDjrGGaV0XsibV8QNJvG3kttNE2sOzTzbVJzl80odt5V24UQD5NtPubpmQ7gNs0ThQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><p style="margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;"><span leaf="">结果：二手房市场只放量不涨价（刚需主导，价格敏感），新房市场（尤其核心城市）涨价但难放量（改善主导，供给稀缺）。</span></p></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策约束：高质量发展与非全局加杠杆</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中央持续强调高质量发展是首要任务和房地产发展新模式（解决“三高”问题）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新模式核心：推动行业从“金融业”回归“制造业”，摆脱高负债、高周转、高杠杆。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">约束：解题思路要求非全局性加杠杆（如大规模棚改），限制了传统救市政策的运用空间。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键问题：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;修复居民资产负债表（尤其二手房房价止跌）对消费、就业至关重要，但面临购买力不足和政策约束的双重压力。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">破局之道：好房子政策引领五重共振</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告认为“好房子”政策能兼顾困境破局和高质量发展要求，并将在核心城市引发五重利好共振：</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">共振1：好房子的政策力量</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">打造新产品（品质、功能、精神层面升级）、开辟新市场（与历史商品房切割）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">供给绝对稀缺（无历史库存），需求相对充裕（“住有宜居”升级需求），政策持续友好（优化得房率、容积率等）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">重塑品质溢价的上行价格体系（核心城市好房子项目去化率高，普遍78-83%）。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">共振2：城市更新的力量</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中央和地方高度重视城市更新（打造城市维度的好房子战略）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">与好房子政策协同（国常会要求将好房子建设纳入城市更新）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心城市一二手房价差是其推动高质量更新的核心优势（提供融资可行性，如上海征拆预算大增）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标是打造“好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区”。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">共振3：住房消费升级力量</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国正从“住有所居”转向“住有宜居”。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高品质住宅（好房子）存量稀缺（估算全国占比仅约24%，一线城市更低约14%）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">改善性需求正值释放期（人口结构、教育水平、多孩家庭等因素驱动），空间广阔，尤其在核心城市。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">共振4：资本管制下财富再配置力量</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">无风险利率下降 + 资本管制，推动国内财富向核心城市集聚。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">表现：高端改善需求（新房套总价3000万以上）逆势增长（2024年同比+57%），且高度集中于一线城市（97%），上海占比最高（62%）。上海亿元级新房成交激增。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">好房子和城市更新为财富向核心城市配置提供了优质的供应端基础。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">共振5：股市的力量</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">历史经验：上海、深圳、香港等核心城市的股市（指数）领先于楼市（房价）约半年。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">当前：香港恒指自2025年4月已涨约28%，其楼市已改善；A股（上证、深成指）自4月也显著上涨（23%/38%）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预计股市走强将成为后续核心城市楼市改善的重要贡献力量。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">潜在利好：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房贷降息：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;预计商贷和公积金利率仍有下降空间（对比历史低点）。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">限购放松：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;一线城市已历五轮放松，预计上海、北京、深圳等核心城市限购政策有望进一步优化，成为边际改善力量。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心城市展望：香港已反转，上海等临近底部</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">香港案例（已反转）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四重利好共振：人才政策（引进需求）、撤辣政策（刺激需求）、股市大涨（提振信心和财富）、HIBOR下降（降低购房成本）。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359240" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG55NMUts9icFYiaDjrGGaV0XsbBwwMoWJk7n0bq2HSnfbVOTBibrfH3plvLAibiaFdQPozVnribAYPXANrw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><p><span leaf="">效果：租金上涨（较24年2月低点+10%），房价止跌回升（25年3月见底），成交量显著改善（尤其新房），零售业销货价值转正，核心区甲写租金企稳。</span></p></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心驱动力：人才和资金流入。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上海展望（临近底部）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">已现“哑铃型修复”：高端改善新房（如瑞虹、前滩板块价格显著上涨）和低端刚需二手房（300万以下价格企稳，成交占比提升）价格已筑底改善。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">具备五重共振潜力：好房子供给增加、城市更新推进（预算大增）、消费升级需求强、财富再配置首选地、股市领先上涨。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预计限购放松和股市力量将成为关键边际改善力量，加速楼市全面筑底改善。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">其他核心城市：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;成都、北京、深圳、杭州、广州等核心城市同样在逐步具备上述利好因素，预计将紧随香港和上海之后，陆续筑底改善。选择依据：土地出让金（供给能力）和一二手房成交金额（市场容量/吸引力）。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">投资分析意见：维持“看好”评级</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;好房子政策破局 -&gt; 引领核心城市五重共振 -&gt; 核心城市率先改善 -&gt; 布局核心城市、打造好房子的优质房企受益 -&gt; 经营模式由金融转向制造 -&gt; 迎接PB-ROE向上突破。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">推荐方向：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产品力房企：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;建发国际、滨江集团、华润置地、绿城中国、中国金茂、建发股份。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">低估值修复房企：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;新城控股、越秀地产、招商蛇口、中国海外发展、龙湖集团、保利发展、华发股份；关注新城发展、大悦城、金地集团。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二手房中介：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;贝壳-W；关注我爱我家。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">物业管理：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;绿城服务、华润万象、招商积余、保利物业、中海物业。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="5"><li><span data-marker="5."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险提示：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业销售和融资资金趋紧。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政府收储和城市改造推进不及预期。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告核心结论：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;在高质量发展约束下，传统的全局刺激政策受限，但通过聚焦“好房子”战略，在核心城市激发政策、城市更新、消费升级、财富配置和股市联动等多重力量共振，有望实现房地产市场的结构性复苏（核心城市率先企稳），并最终带动全局市场的稳定与复苏。投资上应聚焦在核心城市布局且具备优秀产品力的房企。</span></span></span></span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>