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如何看待房价的周期位置？

发布于 2025-09-17

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">该报告是长江证券于2025年9月14日发布的房地产行业周报。</span></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="tKpgd5VOWg" style="" data-dir-key="tKpgd5VOWg"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心观点概述</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告聚焦于房地产。行业的房价周期位置分析，认为房价近四年来深度调整已基本消化历史超涨成分，后续下行压力有望减小，但止跌回升依赖宏观经济和</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策支持。核心结论包括：</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全局维度</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：房价调整相对充分，但仍需良性通胀（温和物价上涨支持实际收入）和进一步降息（降低购房成本）来实现止跌。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">城市分化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：房价趋势显著分化：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高能级城市（一线及新一线）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：补跌压力较大，近期跌幅加剧（如一线城市二手房价格下跌），原因是估值压力、收入预期疲软和调整时间不足。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">低能级城市（三四线）的核心区域</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：已止跌或企稳，得益于绝对低价和高租售比（例如租金回报率达5%以上）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中能级城市</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：仍在“寻底”，房价波动较大，库存去化周期较长。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">大城市内部分化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新房 vs. 二手房</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：核心区域新房价格“补涨”（土地价值在限价政策中被低估，级差地租显性化），而二手房价格“补跌”（折旧、品质不足和供应过剩导致）。新房溢价</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">体现在品质、得房率和稀缺性上。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心区 vs. 远郊</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：房价压力集中在远郊（与国际一线城市相比，如与伦敦、纽约对比，中国一线远郊房价跌幅更大）；核心区因长期限价，整体均价不高，新房补涨是对低</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估的修正。 行业量价快速下行阶段可能已结束，但整体复苏缓慢，核心区和高质量房产（如“好房子”）具备结构性机会。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="I8LjN4dcL2" style="" data-dir-key="I8LjN4dcL2"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场表现数据</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股市</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（截至2025年9月12日周）：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">本周长江房地产指数上涨5.89%，跑赢沪深300指数4.51个百分点，行业排名靠前（2/32）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">年初至今，房地产指数上涨11.49%，但落后沪深300指数超额收益-3.43%，排名靠后（20/32），显示板块波动大。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发类和物管类公司普涨，收租类表现分化。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">销售数据</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（基于样本城市）：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新房</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：37城成交面积四周滚动同比-12.2%（较上周改善2.6个百分点），累计同比-6.2%。一线城市成交小幅回暖（周同比+6.1%），但三</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四线城市疲软（周同比-46.5%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二手房</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：17城成交面积四周滚动同比+11.4%（大幅改善5.1个百分点），累计同比+14.5%，表现优于新房（需求转向二手市场）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">9月月度同比</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（截至12日）：新房-4.8%，二手房+22.0%，12城新房+二手合计+11.8%，显示二手房市场领跑。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">实时数据</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：中介20城实时成交套数（MA7）同比波动，显示市场情绪有所回暖，但需求仍偏弱（9月同比约+11.8%，但绝对值低于2024年同期）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359273" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG7b5xtYRcMJhvb7OX98OSJYswdhy4nq6mgwSY707yicMYcPEGyZpeNIYzr2FnYzfD0via5Nb3VQAfmg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="y5Q2VGfoti" style="" data-dir-key="y5Q2VGfoti"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策更新</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中央政策</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：国务院政策吹风会强调深化土地改革，包括赋能试点地区盘活农村集体经营性建设用地、推进城镇低效用地再开发（如鼓励市场化方式盘活闲置土地），</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">旨在增加土地供给优化。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">地方政策</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：河南出台12项措施，包括购房补贴、多子女家庭支持、提高公积金贷款额度（上限提至90%）、收购存量房作保障房、货币化安置等，以稳定楼市。</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;政策宽松概率上升，但报告警告效果依赖实施节奏和需求响应。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="qMMM9LcqSG" style="" data-dir-key="qMMM9LcqSG"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">投资建议</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告看好行业修复潜力，推荐关注结构性机会：</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股票策略</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：优质地产股位置较2024年4月和9月底部溢价不大（历史估值低点），市场整体估值抬升提供补涨空间。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">重点标的：轻库存、区域优势（聚焦核心区）、产品力强的龙头房企（如万科比照）；稳定现金流的龙头经纪（如链家）、商业地产运营商和央国企物管公</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">司。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">理由：核心区房价韧性及政策支撑有望带动物管和经纪服务增长。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产业趋势</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：行业进入量价慢平衡阶段，“好房子”建设（高质量住宅）和政策驱动的存量盘活（如保障房收购）是关键驱动力。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">此总结提炼了报告的实质信息：房价周期处于“调整尾段但未反转”阶段，分化加剧，投资聚焦结构性和政策敏感领域，风险需监控需求和政策落地效果。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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