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实操 | 深圳二手房指导价的合理性分析

发布于 2021-02-20

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="96407" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="94225" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1em;padding-bottom: 1em;box-sizing: border-box;"><p 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!important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">/&nbsp;<span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">预计阅读时间10分钟</span>&nbsp;/</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:left;margin: 5px 8px;max-inline-size: 100%;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 2;text-align: right;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;&nbsp;<img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw9AQUfXs65R2qiakhibjKMxOIxcg0XIxbOCrRAqIp15GWqzJnWM2DaiaYqNQlhBoAGHh5UT6znSrcZw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;" data-ratio="0.125" data-w="120" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:right;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:right;"><br /></p><section data-id="98477" data-tools="135编辑器"><section style="margin: 10px auto;"><section style="display:flex;justify-content: space-between;align-items: center;margin-top: -76px;"><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="120" data-bgopacity="50%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 5em;height: 5em;background: rgb(244, 212, 45);border-top-right-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="120" data-bgopacity="50%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 5em;height: 5em;background: rgb(244, 212, 45);border-top-left-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;"><br /></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></p><p style="text-align:center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">深圳二手房出指导价,各路人马坐不住了。<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">有去年刚“上车”就血亏的业主,小则几十万,大则上百万——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5449482895783612" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbkXCiajaJiaibyiaJDNBcLnOezAqYZZjjich3OEpIvs4IH104Wvy89diaYaTg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1257" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">也有中介继续“忽悠”需要买房的客户尽快出手——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.7348017621145374" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbwRUEPvhyG1efibSjmPhicIRt1MyVDc0qU33x6T0h5DThoznCgib1wSp2A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1135" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">&nbsp;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);">深圳这个二手房指导价究竟合不合理,有没有参考价值?后续我们要如何理性判断深圳的资产价格?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">对此,我们将政府发布的数据,进行地理坐标落位及上图,结果发现该指导价格与禾略种子系统里,半年前预测的深圳网格合理房价,有惊人的一致性。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.2809667673716012" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbI80kicqLBibwyUMC5gBs8ACuuVCWIzQmaoB6LIF5Wmvy4UZ7aJKeuNkg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1986" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">详情如下——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">深圳二手房指导价(官方)</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5431654676258992" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbYcXTm9ZckhXjTplb4BJS4WnibKy5JANKuXkQvdQWYBN4cRLrlbgxlRA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1668" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="1.5913621262458473" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbW3u6JicmK22jfaVxo1cqzic0wQqV9TAwfXEpxvLFfsJKP2srRdp47xPw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="301" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">深圳网格合理房价(禾略预测)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5479375696767002" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullb55Guic5nyvIPddyD4mPPBHqROiadT6FgbyibKYGHFbMWWDME2IIciamb3A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1794" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbx01iaoqjloYyz5aCibZV6AjvI49hic52qIN1eEhsqe5RrUKfic1KDKseicw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="212" data-cropx2="385" data-cropy1="98" data-cropy2="291" data-ratio="1.1091954022988506" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullb5Rt1WbLicKrNJ3QArvY3tJbOCcrljMX9Vr8KRGgxLjpvTdvxIkKKIvw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="174" style="text-align: left;width: 173px;height: 193px;" /><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从具体数值来看,我们的预测会比深圳指导价高一些,原因是我们根据市场价格做的预测,而政府指导价严重低于实际价格,但在各分段房价的比值,数据结构分布和图形分布趋势上具有一致性。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以今天栗子跟大家分享一下,我们对于深圳合理房价的研究思路——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">01</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">深圳二手房指导价格上图</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这是深圳住建局发布的二手房指导价格数据,该数据缺少坐标,于是我们通过高德工具批量获取小区坐标。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.8576271186440678" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbNBib7puHibOXC0tWoTFKbsOtgg1KwqtddtAsFTeLe3Da6CD8D8ocfNxQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1180" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">然后将坐标数据导入arcgis软件,分别做200米、500米缓冲区。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="1.119047619047619" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbATxHqN5g0BcCLQB9LbtMXgRMAf7e8ZKl4LpLmwJ2Popkic0qYk3US2w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="672" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">将缓冲区数据与深圳网格数据连接,算出每个网格的<span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>平均</strong></span>“二手房成交参考价格”,然后将数据导出并上图,于是我们就可以得到完整的深圳二手房指导价格图。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5431654676258992" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbYcXTm9ZckhXjTplb4BJS4WnibKy5JANKuXkQvdQWYBN4cRLrlbgxlRA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1668" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">(值得注意的是,由于政府发布的小区数量为3595条,并未覆盖深圳全域,因此上图结果会有很大部分空白数据)</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;text-align: center;">02</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">禾略合理房价的研究方法</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">禾略采集招聘、城市POI、二手房挂牌数据,以1平方公里网格为研究颗粒度,对于城市城市合理房价的推算逻辑大致为以下步骤:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.6976549413735343" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullb8xKLk0N6KJRspRiaogfrkj28zcajia5XyyEibh29RUNpoY6wReKNKVTEQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1194" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、通过城市的招聘收入水平和收入结构,推算房价以及划分产品线;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、城市POI资源分布来计算各区域的地块价值建立训练模型;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、最后通过对市场二手房挂牌数据进行分产品线的预测,来得到城市内部各区域分产品线的预测房价,再基于产品线分布的概率得到加权房价,定义为合理房价。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5479375696767002" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullb55Guic5nyvIPddyD4mPPBHqROiadT6FgbyibKYGHFbMWWDME2IIciamb3A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1794" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">—— 最后 ——</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">想看深圳二手房指导价地图的小伙伴</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可戳“阅读原文”</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">密码:bkkb</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">需要<span style="text-align: center;">深圳二手房指导价地图的</span>坐标文件</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以在公众号后台留言</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">坐标</span><br /></section><p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.40948275862068967" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwVnKPSLDs897SLborCullbGqtxrtzGicMTN8zBUcicNXt38vibiamjB3DfKYic4bLxY4EbhYovkqoYOEQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1160" style="width: 456px;height: 186px;" /></section><p><br /></p><section 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