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少喝金融鸡汤,实干地产不怂

发布于 2022-01-11

<p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">///<br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">引言</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">最近,好几个朋友,不约而同给我转发了一篇热文,标题是“沉舟侧畔千帆过”,其中,“沉舟”指老经济,“千帆”指新经济,文章很长,我认真拜读,没有看完,努力学习里面关于“房地产”的分析研究部分,很有收获,也很受启发,回想起来,过去这么多年,关于房地产,总有一种论调,我暂且将其统称为“规模见顶论”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2014年,全国房地产成交金额7.63万亿。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">Then,</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">专家预测,“房地产长期拐点至,规模见顶,风险增加”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">业内大佬说,“楼市进入白银时代”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2016年,全国房地产成交金额11.76万亿。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">Then,</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">专家预测,“根据联合国数据,中国25-44岁人口在2013年左右见顶,人口抚养比也在2011年步入上升通道,中国人口红利的拐点正在出现,我们对中国房地产大周期的判断:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">1、开工、投资的高速成长期已过,开工规模和投资增速的历史峰值已经出现;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2、新房成交量接近行业天花板,存量房市场仍有较大发展空间;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">3、房价:快速上涨阶段接近尾声,关注区域分化下的城市级差扩大”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">业内大佬说,“房地产行业2015年规模仅为不到10万亿元的规模,但到2016年10月底,房地产规模已达9万亿元。规模恐再难增长,但资源正快速向大公司集中。”</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2019年,全国房地产成交金额15.97万亿。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">Then,</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">专家预测,“行业、企业规模双见顶,大鱼开始吃大鱼”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">行业大佬说,“白银时代进入深水区……”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2021年1-11月,据国家统计局的数据,全国商品房成交金额16.17万亿,同比增长8.5%,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>禾略预计,2021年全年,全国商品房成交金额不低于17.64万亿,再创历史新高</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">Then,</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">专家预测:“告别白金时代,再看第二曲线,走进青铜时代”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">行业大鱼面面相觑:“求接盘,请把我吃掉……”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 16px;">(一)2008年9月的报告</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">跟着回忆,继续往前翻,突然看到一份2008年9月的万科办公会的报告,“应变、调整、奠基”,就顺便复盘了一下,摘取部分观点如下。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">观点一:住宅供应总量持续增加,存销比不断恶化,购房意愿和能力受股市下行的影响巨大,短期内楼市难以回暖。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="350" data-ratio="0.6432517758484609" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TlO95LicDlibsIZiaJqr3zIL8KVniaDb4KUyukEynSkOq4yDX6BGBXEO8QA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1267" style="width: 546px;height: 351px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">复盘:库存数据推导的结论没毛病,股市直接和楼市挂钩分析,没有做过相关性分析,确实有点勉强。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">整体看,当时的结论和预判,过于悲观,甚至认为,即使未来宏观政策松动,短期内也难以直接惠及住宅行业,也从侧面反映出,那个时期,大家其实并不迷信政策,对市场抱有敬畏之心。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">再看看现在行业里某些观点,天天就只会想着政府兜底,琢磨着搭政策搭顺风车,到了投资决策的时候,不分青红皂白就是一把梭哈。只能说,专业和敬畏,不能保证我们永远正确,但可以让我们活得更久一些。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">观点二:住宅市场规模增长未来两年将大幅放缓(08年会萎缩),行业盈利水平在房价下行和成本刚性挤压下将持续下滑。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="359" data-ratio="0.6624605678233438" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TVbyhfwZAkTNWI3hIDnhYMWCnWA12pWcrhkokpQP7Ic5kWTQ0vh4vBQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1268" style="width: 546px;height: 362px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">复盘:规模测算,简单粗暴,加减乘除一波,预测了2009年全国商品房成交金额2万亿,2010年全国商品房成交金额2.2万亿,实际结果是,2009年全国商品房成交金额4.44万亿,2010年全国商品房成交金额5.27万亿。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">当然,也不需要苛责当年的万科,那个时代,要数据没数据,要模型没模型,乔布斯都还在被盖茨吊打,再加上,人们面对剧烈的市场下跌,内心的恐惧会被放大,同时,锚定效应也会让人们以线性思维去对未来做预判。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">观点三:万科需要转变经营观念,由侧重“规模速度型”增长转向侧重“质量效益型”增长。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="286" data-ratio="0.5232833464877664" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TtzlO3FiadqxNzYmicMhPdKEWfqWf6YEfbicX7TQso4gZmyE2zG0TfraCw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1267" style="width: 547px;height: 286px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">复盘:实际情况是,从2009年开始,市场整体规模快速增长,黑马房企层出不穷,资本市场的评价标准也被带歪,房地产企业融资主要靠排行榜上的销售规模讲故事。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">万科尽管预判偏差较大,但具体执行落地依然准确有力,依然保持了持续稳健的发展,当之无愧的地产行业大白马。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">以上三个观点,在十三年后的今天来看,准确率还是比较有限的,但这三个观点的对错其实并没有那么重要,因为,对于大环境大趋势,如果可以准确预判,多赚个beta收益,当然最好,如果看不清楚,也没关系,因为大环境对大部分人都是公平的,把它想象的更困难一些,在制定应对策略的时候会更认真一些,在落地执行过程中也会更努力一些,最终赚到属于自己独一份的alpha收益,也更有价值一些。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">那么,接下来就让我们继续回顾一下,2008年9月,基于对宏观经济和市场极度悲观的预判,万科还做了哪些反思和调整。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">反思改进一:公司的经营目标不够清晰,业绩目标不够完整,过于关注短期且没有随市场变化及时调整。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="274" data-ratio="0.5027580772261623" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TH3ACd5c2HQ7fU0JBFWO2mTEckcza9fWLky1uU2cvCIXIlb9RMCcsGQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="width: 546px;height: 275px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">反思改进二:经营策略的制定多以“我”为主,缺乏对市场状况和竞争对手更多、更深、更全的考虑。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="295" data-ratio="0.5406471981057617" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5Trj9c428PicBmWWQ0ZXmaSxq0sue1xLZwtyJtZymptDcLULiahmN2tWTw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1267" style="width: 546px;height: 295px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">反思改进三:纵向重要专业体系的管控严重缺失,导致对一线经营的支持不足;集团缺乏运营管理的长效机制。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="313" data-ratio="0.5734649122807017" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TCr6enFHBxBa2QHUibCrgvz0Stlia918EibTdf0bT6ibVpMK8s20ouNF4RQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1824" style="width: 546px;height: 313px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">反思改进四:激励机制(奖金、排名、领导心中的地位)重规模轻效益,与运营改善的导向不一致。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="288" data-ratio="0.5280189423835833" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TxOuNenu9nU4x1JywiauStoOCzaP8lAYuNfcibgQeyLibXvvoMtdQo0oZw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1267" style="width: 546px;height: 288px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">反思改进五:三级组织定位不清晰,总部、区域和一线经营责任的分工不明确,没有真正建立矩阵式管理结构。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="246" data-ratio="0.4503154574132492" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TIfOxeMkWTmFbVxYcCHaFxYxKosjwEnsuJpx4kyt0JibusicNIIVyaL0Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1268" style="width: 546px;height: 246px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">反思改进六:专业人员培养体系没有切实建立、高素质复合型人才整体缺乏、人员结构和数量有待优化。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="303" data-ratio="0.5558282208588957" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TP160q92gOp4LQWXkF1U6hulvFwvhRqTQt2bAVqZLbmCFIQcUqY1ib8w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1630" style="width: 546px;height: 303px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">反思改进七:从产品定位,成本控制和竞争能力三个维度看,万科产品的市场竞争力还有很多工作要做。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="250" data-ratio="0.4585635359116022" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5T4ib2yp7S4oopTVpn1Fp1awy1BdZ4rLhVoI0gyYicjI7J9LOncZiajR4Ng/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1267" style="width: 546px;height: 250px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">万科就是万科,虽然是十三年前的东西,但今天读来,每一条都是振聋发聩,面对今天市场的下行,我建议大家先不着急埋怨客观环境,不妨自我比照一下,看看自己有哪些地方可以反思改进。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从另一个角度来说,十三年前的反思改进,在今天看来依然有价值,是不是意味着,过去十三年,我们行业所处的大环境,其实并没有发生显著的变化?那么,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>接下来会不会发生变化?什么时候发生?如何发生?发生什么?</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">///</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">于是,我们又要回到本文最初的话题,“规模见顶论”,即,2021年全国商品房成交金额小18万亿,是不是房地产的历史顶部?</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">其实,每一年我们都会做这方面的研究,2020年,我们用下面的方法,做过一次关于房地产规模的预测。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="307" data-ratio="0.5618597320724981" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TpibA8iaVBCyca36l5QpghvKjO671Om7IDFbHrgmZlYY3HibibqfeJPempQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="width: 546px;height: 307px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">当时得到的预测结论是:</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、预计2021年全年商品房成交金额17.96万亿,复盘来看,基本吻合;</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、市场仍将保持相对稳健的增长,年平均增速从13.6%下降到8.53%,虽然是下降趋势,但考虑到基数越来越大,这个增速绝对值并不低;</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、预计2022年全国商品房成交金额突破20万亿,预计2025年全国商品房成交金额有望达到27.17万亿,以上还有待验证。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="312" data-ratio="0.5814814814814815" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5T0oBTISwhicC4DKR6yHCm9LxibcVr8v6etwia1iboPMDFHU9icpqq9liafqwA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 317px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">基于以上三点预判,我在思考,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>今天我们谈论“放弃规模增长,专注经营效益”,是否为时过早?</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">因为,在一个市场规模巨大,且增速超过GDP增速的行业里,规模越大,意味着效益越高。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">但这又如何解释,2021年某些大规模企业一夜之间陷入困境呢?</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">为什么明明是一个规模持续增长,售价持续增长的市场里,2021年却有那么多企业出现流动性危机呢?</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">或许,这就是房地产行业的精彩和无奈之处,既要像万科郁亮说的那样,“我们不去预测政策走向,当好农民种好地”,也要接受行业大环境还是靠天吃饭。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">总的来说就是,只干活,不看天,不行,只看天,假装干活,也不行。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从这个角度来说,对行业规模的研究,也是对企业经营立足点的研究,仅仅研究一个“成交金额”是不够的,还需要研究“成交金额”实现过程中的周期节奏,以及“成交金额”实现过程中的客群结构和产品结构,如果还能进一步理解“成交金额”形成的第一性动力,那就更好了。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">01&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">周期节奏</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></span></p></section></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们先来说说“成交金额”形成的周期节奏。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">我们以月为单位,整理了2006年至今,全国商品房成交金额的数据,做了12个月的移动平均处理,计算出YOY(year of year)的同比增速变化(鎏金线,下文都简称“增幅”),还有滤波周期变化(朱砂线),详见下图。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="283" data-ratio="0.5195822454308094" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TH6qC6V03A8uVibEhq3m6CZlTK6icYDJg5cSvBKmra4xvQjicNT8aSmjkA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1532" style="width: 546px;height: 284px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以看到:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">1、看鎏金线走势,虽然2021年下半年,地产行业一片鬼哭狼嚎,但因为2021年上半年的行情实在太火爆,所以算下来,2021年11月还是有14%的增幅,对比历史几个低点,“2009年2月,-17%”,“2012年9月,1%”,“2015年2月,-7%”,“2020年4月,0.6%”,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>市场确实还没到最惨的时候</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2、再看朱砂线走势,根据滤波周期的预测,市场完全见底应该是在2022年7月,但大家也不用绝望,市场只是增速下滑,并不是负增长,只要比街对面的对手努力一点,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>熬过了2022年7月,市场就会开始恢复增长</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,届时又是一波鸡犬升天行情,这一次可要把握好节奏,别又在2023年二季度去抢高价地;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">3、感慨一下,确实如朱格拉说的那样,“</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">萧条的唯一原因就是繁荣</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">”。每一次市场的失速下跌,恰恰是因为之前的一波政策性刺激放水,祸福相依,古人诚不欺我,也希望房地产开发商的决策人员更有智慧一些,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>乐观的时候不要过度膨胀,悲观的时候不要盲目消极。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">当然,这确实很难,万科2008年9月的报告为什么对大市的预期那么悲观?从上图也可以看出,2008年9月的市场,正在失速下跌的通道里,如果只有经验和感觉可以依靠,恐惧是难免的,预测偏差较大也是难免的。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">02&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">市场结构</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></span></p></section></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">看完市场的周期节奏,接下来我们说说结构的问题。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">成交金额=成交价格x成交面积,</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房价,本质上是个货币现象</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,汇率和利率,M1和M2,决定了房价,即成交价格,从分析模型的结果来看,M1和M2对成交价格的影响更为显著,当货币供应增速快的时候,成交价格的增速也快。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">这里需要注意的是,对于开发商而言,房价的上涨不一定就是好事,因为从历史统计数据来看,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>地价上涨的幅度总是超过房价上涨的幅度</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,尤其在热点城市,而且热点城市的一手房销售均价还有限价,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>这就给开发商挖了“增收不增利”的经营陷阱。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">我们先来看成交价格的数据分析结果。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">我们用处理成交金额数据的方法,也把成交价格的数据处理了一遍,详见下图。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="278" data-ratio="0.5096030729833547" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TxtVNUyd8iaq4jw4u5jrf5WkR83L95XuQibdIgiamHVcn8d5XsMOFHPd2Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1562" style="width: 546px;height: 278px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以看到:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">1、看鎏金线走势,历次市场下跌,仅有2015年2月,房价出现-0.6%的负增长,其余时间里都是只涨不跌,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>房地产扎扎实实的十五年牛市</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,扪心自问,你的成功,到底是实力还是运气。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2、再看朱砂线走势,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>全国成交价格见底时间是2022年9月</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,比全国成交金额见底晚两个月,是不是可以推测,未来将会有一些开发商选择在2022年8-9月,来一波以价换量的操作呢?若预测准确,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>对于购房者而言,2022年最好的买房时机就是8月,对于开发商而言,如果实力允许熬过9月,不妨就把销售高峰放在10-11月,多卖一分钱也是利润。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">3、既然说成交价格与M1和M2强相关,那么M1和M2在2022年的走势也值得我们研究看看。我们来复习一下2021年10月禾略做的预测吧,详见下图。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="240" data-ratio="0.4392523364485981" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TVsGic8klKBKzEL6H8ZicjCWlBWvfQFVSiaoNP98w8EFIB1h35JSPRaWAg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1712" style="width: 546px;height: 240px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">M1的预测还是有点意思,在2021年10月预测了2021年12月反弹,结果2021年12月初就降准了。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从预测来看,对于这次降准也没必要过度解读,就是一次守住底线的小操作,根据这个预测,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2022年2月还能再来一次降准或者“麻辣粉”之类,2022年4月也还会再来一波小放水,这些都是宝贵的卖房窗口期,请大家把握机会</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">努力卖房回款,救救自己,救救自己的老板,救救等着回款的乙方(主要指工程款,春节前还是要保证农民工的工资)。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">预计到2022年6月,资金面就真的见底</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,开始稳步回升,这个预测结论,和全国成交金额滤波周期的预测结论一致,是不是有点意思?</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">再看M2,2020年6月开始第一波去杠杆,部分开发商失去了融资端的资金流入后,陷入现金流危机,从预测来看,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2022年1月又要开始第二波去杠杆</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,千万不要心存侥幸,不要对融资端的资金流入抱有太多期待,还是要努力从销售端创造资金收入。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>只要坚持到2022年9月,这一轮去杠杆就真的结束了</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,融资端又可以恢复输血功能,这个预测结论,和成交价格的滤波周期预测结论一致,这可能就是传说中的多维复现吧。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">说完了成交价格,再来研究研究成交面积的数据,还是用处理成交金额数据的方法,也把成交面积的数据处理了一遍,详见下图。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="283" data-ratio="0.5195822454308094" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TbhHFwcDXQmwaDGAUxCSg1yQFEscgfhnl2iaGghHOFictFT1mnsYsMXSg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1532" style="width: 546px;height: 284px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以看到:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">与“成交金额”和“成交价格”两个分析对比,存在两个差别——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">一是,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>成交面积周期下行时,增速会出现负增长</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,2009年2月甚至达到了-17%,上一次底部,2020年4月,增幅下降也有-4%,再看2021年11月,虽然大家感觉市场很冷,但其实增速还有6%,最差的时候还没到;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">二是,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>预计成交面积增速见底会在2022年7月,比成交价格见底早两个月,可以推测,销售去化最艰难的时候,可能是在2022年的5月6月7月</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,如果感觉现金流比较紧张,建议在5月前就要主动积极降价,率先抢跑一波,等到大家都开始促销,再想快速出货回款就更难了。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">综上,回顾一下核心观点:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">1、虽然增速持续下降,但房地产的行业规模还未见顶,预计2022年全国商品房成交金额在19.23-19.73万亿之间,预计2025年全国商品房成交金额突破27万亿;</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">2、本轮周期下行的底部,整体市场预计在2022年7月,分结构来看,成交价格预计在2022年9月见底,成交面积预计在2022年7月见底;</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">3、M1反弹只是宏观调控的临时应急措施,核心是守住底线,对房地产行业的金融紧缩政策风向没变,预计,2022年4月后,M1还要继续下行,与此同时,M2也同步下行,可以推测,2022年5月6月7月会是房地产行业的至暗时刻(2021年11月是部分房企的至暗时刻);</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">4、预计M2在2022年9月见底,可以推测,2022年10月,会有比较明确的货币转向政策出台,或许那时候对房地产行业的融资才会友好一些,也就是说,2022年5月6月7月既是房地产销售的至暗时刻,也是房地产投资抄底的绝佳时机。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">03&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">人口</span></strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">当然,对于上面这波操作,还是会有很多人有疑问,不论是成交金额、成交价格、成交面积,还是M1、M2,这不都是数字游戏吗?数字背后的本质是什么?讨论房地产是不是还是要讨论一下人口呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">那我们就来看看中国的人口数据,最近,大家对出生率下降这件事情,非常紧张,近乎焦虑,还有若干专家给出了“发钱补贴生娃”的药方,我极度怀疑,他们只是想趁着自己还能生,占点国家补贴的便宜。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">其实,出生率下降并不等于总人口数量下降,而且,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>数量很重要,质量更重要</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,GDP总量第一,只能算合格,人均GDP第一,那才是真的第一。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">人海战术,那是落后组织的落后观念,纵观美国和日本的经济腾飞史,并不是不靠生孩子拼人多来实现的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">在工业化初期,人多力量大,资本和劳动力确实是拉动经济增长的重要要素,到了工业化成熟转型期,科技才是第一生产力,组织创新和技术革新才是推动经济飞速增长的重要要素。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">说了这么多,其实就是想提个醒,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>讨论人口和经济发展的关系,不是简单讨论人口总量和经济发展的关系,也不是简单讨论人口结构和经济发展的关系,还需要考虑人口质量和经济发展的关系,或许也需要研究文化和经济发展的关系,正所谓,国民审美决定国家战略。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">再说回人口和房地产的关系,总人口真的和房地产市场发展有密切关系吗?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">我查阅了2006年万科集团做的全国cati调研数据,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>具有购房需求的人群的年龄集中在25-49岁</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,我又查了公司最近半年做的几个城市抽样调研数据,80%以上的具有购房需求的人群年龄也是集中在25-49岁,我还顺手查了一下美国帕尔迪的历史报告,美国的主要购房人群年龄也集中在25-49岁。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">果然,人生历程如万花筒的画面,每转动一次万花筒,就看到另一种景象,然而眼前总是同一个万花筒。或许,购房这件事,应该算是人类的本能生理行为吧,不论在哪个时代哪个国家,都呈现出一定的共性特征。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">于是,我把25-49岁的人口数据单独拿出来,暂且称其为“适龄购房人口”,再分别对“总人口”和“25-49岁适龄购房人口”做了预测,再加上1999-2021年全国商品房成交面积,就有了下图。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="365" data-ratio="0.6671875" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5T2cCYThHALKjJ2TLHouOwWmpb0T4sfkLm0fcIAfOjJm0cicR32CCjVbg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="width: 546px;height: 364px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">看着确实很让人担心,适龄购房人口峰值5.73亿,出现在2015年,已经是过去时,目前处于持续下降通道,总人口峰值14.64亿,会在10年后的2031年出现,房地产成交面积过去五年一顿暴涨,看起来是见顶准备崩盘的样子。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">感觉是这么个感觉,想象也是这么个想象,不少专家也是这么说,但还是不必着急下结论,不妨让我们来看看日本的人口和房地产的历史变化是怎么样的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="331" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="331" data-ratio="0.60625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TEfU1Dx1AjkXyjXzIIazzdiaEMWjcfINwK4sl8uf9Sqq6oNKp0NI3C5g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="width: 546px;height: 331px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">日本的适龄购房人口峰值0.46亿,出现在1981年,总人口峰值1.29亿,出现在2009年,但是,请注意,日本房地产新房销售的高峰期,发生在1994-2006年这十二年里,适龄购房人口峰值和房地产新房销售峰值,相差十三到二十五年。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">肯定有人要反驳,“不对呀,日本房地产不是1990年前后崩了吗?你这数据有问题!”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">首先,声明一下,数据是日本官方数据,正儿八经的渠道。其次,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>一般说日本房地产崩盘,指的是,日本房地产成交价格大幅度下跌,而在这个下跌过程中,新房销售套数不仅没有下跌,还走出一波波澜壮阔的行情。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="331" data-ratio="0.60625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5T5iaQS1RRVkE1jNlNfb806UHGWtNpmHDHcjE13RqssXDTn2NvBwWhrDg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="width: 546px;height: 331px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">所以,当某些专家说,套户比超过1,房地产市场就不好做,这是想当然了。即便我们每个人都好几部手机,也不妨碍苹果公司继续做大做强,即便大部分家庭都有汽车,也不妨碍特斯拉在汽车行业后来居上。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">具体到买房这件事,有没有可能是这样,如果大家不买房子,不是因为套户比超过1,而是因为买不起,要是像日本1991年之后那样,成交价格实实在在崩溃一波,那买的人会不会就很多了呀,这难道不就是1994-2006年日本新房大卖十二年的原因吗?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">如果是这样的逻辑,那么,我们可以说,目前的中国房地产市场,不是房子太多,而是房子太少,适销对路的房子更是稀缺,房地产开发商不要只会担心房子没人买,而是应该认真研究一下,如果房价进入下行期,如何把房子卖出去,而企业还能有利润。大道理谁都能给你说上两句,但你手里的底活只能靠你自己,这才是安身立命之本。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">那么,人口和房地产真的没什么直接关系吗?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">这确实是一个又专业又宏大的课题,我尝试把日本的人口数据掰开了,做了一点傻瓜式分析,谈不上很科学,仅作为一种角度,供大家参考。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="331" data-ratio="0.60625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TG40ibxuaArrS44OGy1bmwFoYtBTXGjRFIPicfdjXmtPhU6qQZSHoDBTA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="width: 546px;height: 331px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从上图可见,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>似乎,新房销售的走势,与25-29岁人口的走势比较相关</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">。年轻的家庭,都想买房,只是有些家庭,比较富裕,就无所谓房价贵,想买就买,而大部分家庭,还是普通工薪,就只能等房价跌一轮,才终于买得起。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="331" data-ratio="0.60625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5T3cqPGl9kAicKVhdlGSzecB1YksQgicDVTI3Mv0JexlpwjzC9ZX3E2ybg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="width: 546px;height: 331px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从上图可见,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>似乎,房价的走势,与40-44岁人口的走势比较相关</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">。人到中年,有点小钱,收入稳定但增长预期没有了,又有极强的贷款加杠杆条件,于是,要么,有了需求,改善一把居住条件,要么,有了欲望,投资一把保值增值,只是,人生巅峰转瞬即逝,身体开始下坡路,事业家庭有压力,一点风吹草动,无以为继,集体大溃败。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">再来看看中国这两个数据如何。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="245" data-ratio="0.4470046082949309" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TXJBHVk24H3ULDBk0vfV7zBAGPibqvpSTgbXkhJKoDbICwJZrILAgzKg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1736" style="width: 546px;height: 244px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从上图可见,25-29岁人口2015年已经出现峰值,到2030年之前都是断崖式下降,40-44岁人口在2012年已经出现过一次峰值,不过从2020年开始到2030年,又迎来一大波上升。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020-2030年,这十年,虽然总人口还在增长,但25-29岁人口在下降,40-44岁人口在上升,可以推测,房地产市场的增长主要来自于成交价格的增长,而非成交套数的增长,这十年,房地产市场的主流需求是改善需求、高端需求及投资需求。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">对于购房者而言,2020年无疑是比较确定的房价大底,但如果你的房子很刚需,接下来十年可能跑输大市,把握市场机会,及时把老破小换成新好大;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">对于开发商而言,2030年之前,专心干活,不要左顾右盼,具体到手上的细活,建议要及时调整开发策略,不要再一味做首置刚需市场,也不要总是90平米小三房定位,更不要动不动核心卖点就是青年社区亲子配套,成本还是要有适度超配,建筑立面要更加丰富有品质,社区配套要酒店化会所化,品牌要走轻奢路线或艺术路线。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">04&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">经营策略</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">至于经营策略,是不是就一定要抛弃高周转模式呢?还是让我们从评价企业价值的杜邦公式说起。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">净资产收益率=销售净利润率x资产周转率x权益乘数</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">为了方便讨论,我把这个公式简称如下:</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房企收益率=利润率x周转率x杠杆率</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">在现代金融理论中有一个非常著名的定理,即蒙代尔不可能三角(Impossible triangle)。一个国家不可能同时实现“资本流动自由”,“货币政策的独立性”和“汇率的稳定性”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">公式里的这三个率,其实也是个不可能三角。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>房地产企业不可能同时实现“高利润率”,“高周转率”和“高杠杆率”。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">具体到房地产经营策略的分析——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果成交面积增速高于成交价格增速</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,意味着需求增长更快,这时候市场缺货,谁可以在短时间内供出更多的货,谁就能占领市场,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>理想的经营策略就是:高周转率&amp;中杠杆率&amp;低利润率。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果成交面积增速低于成交价格增速</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,有可能是需求开始下降,价格只是结构性上涨;也有可能是供给不足带来成交下降,价格是供不应求带来的全面上涨;但不论是哪一种情况,都会带动地价的显著上涨,这个时期,对于开发商而言,风险比机会更多一些,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>理想的经营策略就是:高利润率&amp;中周转率&amp;低杠杆率。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">结合这两种情况来看,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>能够穿越周期,还要保持持续增长,理想的经营策略就是:中高周转率&amp;中低杠杆率&amp;认命利润率</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从这一轮房地产企业爆雷的名单来看,真正的问题确实不是高周转,而是高杠杆,也就是经营能力和负债能力不匹配的矛盾,从这个角度来说,每一家房地产企业还是要继续学习研究高周转能力,因为高周转就是一种经营能力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">我们还可以通过数据分析来找找感觉,用之前计算的“成交面积增速”减去“成交价格增速”,再做一个滤波周期曲线,可以得到下图。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5752105896510229" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5Th9cxpbgywEI4urjia4GmPNM27mv3SLIytWWoleGH8tnSxHjAoMV5ibow/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1662" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以看到,在数据统计的194个月里(包含预测的24个月),“成交面积增速低于成交价格增速”的月份,总共有81个月,仅占41.75%,过去十五年,全力以赴做“高周转率&amp;高杠杆率”,没有大问题。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">举个例子,2015-2017年,该指标周期处于上升期,这个时期选择“高周转率&amp;高杠杆率”,企业有机会实现跨越式增长,但进入2017-2020年,该指标周期处于下降期,这个时候就应该选择“高利润率&amp;中周转率&amp;低杠杆率”,尤其是要及时把杠杆率降下来。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">之前某个合作项目,客户提出要研究新力的发展历程,详见下图。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">现在回过头再看,这匹黑马的快速崛起,正是因为在2015-2017年,踏准上升周期,极致的高周转和高杠杆,如今的突然陨落,也是因为在2017-2020年,需要降杠杆的时候,却选择了继续极致的加杠杆的全国化规模扩张。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5441696113074205" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TJ5ibwqsO8oyXLbSbL3vibRKlKPhwWCs8plJP7rqOeAHcRydJ5aqLOaSA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2264" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">往日之事不可追,来日之事尤可为。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;">从该指标周期的预测来看,本轮周期下行预计在2022年5月结束,开发商可以在2022年5月-2023年3月的上升周期中,选择“高周转率&amp;高杠杆率”的经营策略,2023年3月后务必要坚决把杠杆率降低,转入“高利润率&amp;中周转率&amp;中杠杆率”的经营策略。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">当我们开始以这样的方式进行经营策略思考和管理,我们就有可能跟上万科的步伐,实现“质量效益型”的增长。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5841121495327103" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5TblFaZLmnR2rYnvYux1KZPdScZGKGs2Q1WR4lAuC4UnbmJD7GoRpfYg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1284" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">在“质量效益型”增长方式下,城市公司将基于市场调整运营,实现从单项目开发到公司持续增长的良性循环。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5414201183431953" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6wu0kymDZ5cnotTLV0gv5T4ayy1gaVc4fz7x2wASaTrl7iaUCSs24sfjrpgjWtH6KKJhs9j7NT0LA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1352" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">至于落地执行细节,比如说:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">如何科学分析市场总量、结构、变化趋势;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">如何科学对竞品进行分析和竞争策略研究;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">如何科学分析客户需求,准确定位产品,确保适销对路;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">以上等等,展开就三天三夜也不够说了,下次有机会我们再聊,也欢迎大家到禾略来交流切磋,一起为行业发展做点小贡献。</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 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1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·「禾略问答」·</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a class="weapp_image_link" data-miniprogram-appid="wxf051804df9944e68" data-miniprogram-path="pages/index/index" data-miniprogram-nickname="禾略问答" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href="" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;line-height: 0;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" href=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.33830455259026687" 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100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout" style="max-width: 100%;flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 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sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" style="box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="47" data-backh="47" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section 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!important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box 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