官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

库存压顶25.8个月!房企破局信号何在?

发布于 2025-09-23

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是高盛中国房地产周报(2025年8月19日发布)的核心内容总结:</span></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="1Q3wQ0VakM" data-dir-key="1Q3wQ0VakM"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、政策动态</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">库存回购计划</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策层拟动员</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">央企收购困境房企的未售房产</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(据离岸媒体报道)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">央行二季度货币政策报告强调落实现有支持措施,包括:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">保障性租赁住房再贷款计划</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(截至2024Q3余额162亿元 vs. 总配额3000亿元)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标:稳定住房市场,优化房企融资体系以推动行业转型。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="d3Zj4nmOfS" data-dir-key="d3Zj4nmOfS"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、市场表现</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">交易量趋势</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新房</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:周环比(WoW)</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">+9%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,但8月累计(MTD)同比(YoY)</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-17%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二手房</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:周环比**-2%</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,8月累计同比</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-1%</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(全年累计同比</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">+12%**)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">区域分化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">珠三角(PRD)表现最佳(周环比+38%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,同比**+13%**)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">长三角(YRD)疲软(周环比+15%,同比-25%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三线城市</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">周环比**+15%**(同比-11%),</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一二线城市</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">同比降幅超20%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场情绪</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新房搜索量周环比持平,二手房看房量周环比**+3%**。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中介价格预期连续两周恶化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(周环比**-0.7个百分点**),但业主报价指数(CAI)持平。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">库存水平</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总库存周环比**-0.1%</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,较2024年底下降</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4.0%**。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">去化周期为</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">25.8个月</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(略低于7月平均的26.0个月)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一线城市库存压力最大</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(去化周期同比降幅最小)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="L-ISXn_Jlu" data-dir-key="L-ISXn_Jlu"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、开发商估值与股价</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股价表现</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">离岸开发商</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:周平均涨幅**+6%**(跑赢MSCI中国指数+3%),&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">华润置地(1109.HK)</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">+11%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、绿城中国(3900.HK)**+10%**领涨。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">在岸开发商</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:周平均涨幅**+2%**(持平CSI 300),&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">金地集团(600383.SS)</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">+4%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(但评级为“卖出”)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值水平</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">离岸开发商:较2025年末NAV折价</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">29%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,2025年预测P/B&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">0.6倍</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(接近历史低谷)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">在岸开发商:NAV折价</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">18%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,P/B&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">0.5倍</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(低于历史低谷水平)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045151" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.6363636363636364" data-w="539" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtlLJw0qFQl4uSJftuP9kOAxzbIib3EiavNxcDvZfG7iaSeRvjLmYWgsmyw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="C6NU3NT719" data-dir-key="C6NU3NT719"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、关键预测与隐含趋势</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">销售与开工</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">8月百强房企预售额</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计同比降幅收窄至**-17%**(7月为-27%)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新开工量</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:8月预计同比降幅</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中双位数</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(7月同比降幅15%),水泥出货率小幅回升至46%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">竣工与家电销售</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">8月竣工量</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计同比**-20%</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(7月为-29%),2025全年预计</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-10%**。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">家电销售</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:8月预计同比持平,二手房交易回暖或带动需求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">贝壳(BEKE)表现</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025Q2总交易额(GTV)同比**+2%**(新房-17%,二手房+10%);</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">7-8月同比**+5%**(新房-8%,二手房+11%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="ROVI_gsi-o" data-dir-key="ROVI_gsi-o"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、区域数据亮点</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新房交易</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一线城市</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:周环比+8%,同比-23%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三线城市</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:周环比+15%,同比-11%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二手房交易</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">20城周成交量同比-1%,但全年累计同比**+12%**。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045152" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.6112115732368897" data-w="553" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtOVQ461t8KZicmJz2dUtEias4yQ5Nc8ePCxNhtibsM6kCpJLAYoOpkWeCA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="8OMt54JgDq" data-dir-key="8OMt54JgDq"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">六、核心结论</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策托底</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:央企收购库存传闻与央行支持措施有望缓解房企压力,但效果待观察。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场分化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:珠三角韧性较强,一二线城市持续承压,二手房表现优于新房。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值低位</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:开发商估值接近历史低谷,离岸标的弹性更大(如华润、绿城)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">复苏信号</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:8月销售降幅收窄、水泥出货率回升预示边际改善,但全面回暖仍需时日。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库