德系豪车崩跌37% vs 小米暴涨300%！7月车市上演冰火两重天

<section data-mpa-md-root="t" data-mpa-md-template="1"><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmnwib" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.9);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;float: none;display: inline !important;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）2025年8月18日发布的《中国汽车市场报告》的核心内容总结，涵盖关键数据、趋势分析和投资观点：</span></span><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-1" style="font-size: 18px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #252525;font-weight: bold;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel71yume6i" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel71yv932n" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">⼀、7⽉零售销量与市场趋势</span></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel719vi8t2" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel719wwpb5" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">1.零售销量增速放缓</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmo1iot" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">7⽉销量：187万辆（同⽐+2.1%），显著低于2025上半年9%的增速。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmo1e4u" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">放缓原因：</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmp1n2o" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">第三轮补贴政策延迟推出。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmq1ce2" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">⾼利息、⾼返利政策减少，导致贷款优惠缩⽔，购⻋成本上升。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmrslh" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">渠道调研显⽰客流量温和下降，成交量下滑更明显。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel71fu51oxc" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel71futvdt" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">2. SAAR（季节性调整年化销量）</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmsayr" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">7⽉SAAR为2450万辆，低于6⽉的2870万辆，但⾼于全年预测的2400万辆。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel71i861jqb" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel71i8r1ww1" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">3. 品牌分化加剧</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmt1tzw" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">豪华品牌：销量同⽐-18.9%（奔驰-37%、奥迪-27%、宝⻢-22%），渗透率降⾄13.5%（2024年同期17%）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmubaf" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">⼤众品牌：销量同⽐+6.4%，吉利、⼩鹏、零跑、⼩⽶贡献主要增量。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmv8b7" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">热⻔⻋型：吉利星元、AITO M8、⼩鹏MONA M03、五菱宏光Mini、⽐亚迪宋L DM-i。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-1" style="font-size: 18px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #252525;font-weight: bold;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel71u7k1zp2" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel71u8f1qu4" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">⼆、新能源⻋（EV）市场</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel721o7hnw" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel721pf1u4w" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">1.渗透率突破50%</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmw1mwo" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">整体EV渗透率：52.7%（BEV纯电33.0%，PHEV插混19.7%）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmxp18" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">EV销量：98.6万辆（同⽐+11.2%），其中BEV增25.7%，PHEV⾃2020年来⾸次下滑（-7.0%）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel727jpj15" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel727kb525" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">2. 区域渗透差异</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmy221f" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">⼀线/⼆线/三线城市BEV渗透率分别为37%、33%、28%；PHEV在各线城市稳定在19-20%。</span></span><span style=""><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel72wmfn1u" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel72wn23zd" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">3. ⻋企份额排名</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmz23sx" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">TOP 3：⽐亚迪集团（26.7%）、吉利集团（12.6%）、五菱（5.5%）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tmz14u7" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">新势⼒表现：AITO（4.2%）、特斯拉（4.2%）、零跑（4.0%）、⼩鹏（3.2%）、理想（3.2%）、⼩⽶（3.1%）、蔚来（2.2%）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-1" style="font-size: 18px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #252525;font-weight: bold;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel7333w1gpb" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel7334ip4q" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">三、库存与价格压⼒</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel7369w1esr" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel736b8lc2" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">1.库存去化持续</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn11rvi" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">7⽉渠道库存净减少3.6万辆（6⽉减少8.8万辆），但EV库存⻛险上升⾄44.6万辆。吉利、⻓安、⽐亚迪库存累积较⾼；纯电品牌中Denza、银河、零跑库存压⼒较⼤。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-2" style="margin-bottom: 16px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: #252525;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel73cn01tl8" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel73cnm2248" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">2. 价格竞争激烈</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn36uq" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">同款⻋型价格同⽐降幅达890个基点（6⽉为830基点）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn3yuq" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">促销形式多样化：免息贷款、充电优惠、免费配置升级等。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-1" style="font-size: 18px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #252525;font-weight: bold;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel73fdx1fkt" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel73fei18sv" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">四、出⼝表现强劲</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn42389" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">7⽉出⼝：同⽐+25%，其中ICE燃油⻋-6%，EV+119%。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn41q93" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">2025年前7⽉：出⼝总量同⽐+12%（ICE-10%，EV+78%）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn51s8x" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">⻋企出⼝排名：奇瑞（66.4万辆，+7%）、⽐亚迪（52.1万辆，+123%）、上汽（28.2万辆，-5%）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-1" style="font-size: 18px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #252525;font-weight: bold;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel73jimx6x" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel73jj77p8" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">五、信贷与政策环境</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn71zt4" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">信贷脉冲：7⽉为24.7%（与6⽉持平），连续4个⽉正增⻓，但与汽⻋需求相关性减弱。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn71pfd" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">汽⻋贷款：ABS发⾏量维持低位，反映消费信贷疲软。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="heading-1" style="font-size: 18px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #252525;font-weight: bold;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel73m5n7qq" data-mpa-md-template="1" data-mpa-action-id="mel73m6j1vn1" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style=""><span leaf="">六、⾏业展望与投资建议</span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">谨慎预期</span></span><span style=""><span leaf="">2025年批发量预计增⻓8%⾄2950万辆（内销2400万辆+7%，出⼝550万辆+10%）。</span></span></section></li></ol><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn9uqe" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">EV渗透率将达57%，但价格战和盈利压⼒持续。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tn91alg" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">2. 投资评级</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tna1a1l" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">推荐"跑赢⼤盘"：⽐亚迪、⼩⽶、理想汽⻋。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tna1e3s" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">"同步⼤盘"：⼩鹏、蔚来、吉利（传统⻋企中唯⼀"跑赢⼤盘"）。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tnali" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">传统⻋企中性：⻓城、⼴汽、上汽评级为"同步⼤盘"。</span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel70tnb19dx" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span style=""><span leaf="">结论：中国汽⻋市场进⼊温和调整期，政策刺激效果减弱，新能源渗透率过半但竞争加剧。出⼝成为重要增⻓极，投资需聚焦电动化领先且盈利韧性强的⻋企（如⽐亚迪、⼩⽶）。</span></span></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>