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心法篇 | 一个朴实无华的高胜率股票择时策略

发布于 2021-07-27

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><img data-backh="121" data-backw="370" 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!important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px 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rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: right;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 12px;">正文共计7278字</span></section><section style="text-align: right;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 12px;">预计阅读时间19分钟</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: right;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="font-size: 10px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><br /></span></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">前言</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本次分享的主题主要讨论<strong>个股的通用择时策略</strong>,不涉及选股策略,<strong>也就是在选定操作标的后,如何确定具体进场、出场、止盈、止损点位的一套完整的交易策略(交易系统)</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">择时是交易中永恒的圣杯,因为几乎所有市场参与者都想避开痛苦的大跌及大跌过后磨人的盘整时间,只抓主升浪,最大化资金使用效率与盈利。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本文将远离故作高深、故弄玄虚的数据处理方法、几乎不需要高中以上的数学知识,<strong>尝试只用最质朴的投机逻辑,用古老的经典方法,阐述一种成功率较高的择时策略</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">相信喜欢投机并且一直未摸到门路的读者朋友,在认真阅读体会后一定会有所收获,投机老手也欢迎对理解不到位的地方提出改进建议,友善讨论,毕竟天下没有完美的策略。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本策略摒弃掉很多繁复的数据处理,不做过多数据拟合及参数估计,远离过拟合,<strong>从而有能力做到普适性、逻辑性、直观性与可操作性兼备</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">万科A择时策略回测图</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4617958728388176" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dOic72Ru2Ytctib4BCPsBoGKwibSShA0HS4439HT1fwuTKPhTyfNmEiarOA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1793" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">先上回测业绩吧,不然大家可能觉得笔者在吹牛,<strong>回测相当于是把这个择时策略拿着穿越时空回到过去,用业绩来检验策略的有效性、稳定性</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上边是对震荡市特征较强的万科A自2018年初至今的策略回测,可以看到三年半的时间,总共交易了21次,其中盈利13次,亏损8次,<strong>胜率是62%,盈亏比是3.4,最大回撤是15.7%</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">收益方面总策略收益是61%,年化收益是15.2%,而如果对于不择时的价值投资派,持有这只股票三年会发现不仅没赚钱还倒亏10%左右,并且2018年的熊市大跌,策略虽然没有完全避开,但是适时的空仓大横线还是体现了一定的<strong>风控能力</strong>,大家都承认万科是好公司,<strong>但是“好公司在好时间买”也很重要</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下边是对长期上升趋势的大牛股平安银行的回测结果——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以看到三年半的时间,总共交易了18次,其中盈利10次,亏损8次,<strong>胜率是55%,盈亏比是3.4,最大回撤是16%</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">收益方面总策略收益是115%,年化收益是39.1%,与一直持有不择时相比,最终收益基本持平,<strong>但是使用策略后回撤减小了很多,持有起来会比较舒服</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">平安银行择时策略回测图</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.47432357813362785" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dVVZOsVnSrfGn3npmPDQwibxxN0ZstibOwH601ibib6gkX2Qon2nBWWZfMw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1811" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本策略分享分为上下两篇,<strong>上篇重点说心法,是本策略的逻辑内核,下篇讲身法,是说心法如何进行落地实战(篇幅所限,身法篇待之后撰文再述)</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">开门见山,以42个字的6句口诀,就可以概括本策略心法的逻辑内核:</span></section><p style="text-align:center;"><br /></p><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-id="93976" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="padding:0.6em;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.06478405315614617" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dkicyGpGTnFOQDzEVscRfj5t1DNFoWDaMLJmAm37CMogibt1pZaSfsd3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="602" data-width="100%" style="width: 100%;display: block;" /> <section style="padding:0px 4px;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="box-shadow: 1px 1px 6px rgb(229,229,229);border-bottom-left-radius: 15px;border-bottom-right-radius: 15px;background: rgb(254,254,254);" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 1em 1.4em 1em 0.6em;box-shadow: rgb(229, 229, 229) -1px 1px 6px;border-bottom-left-radius: 15px;border-bottom-right-radius: 15px;background: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dEPDmibPuIg68nKSd7Zibiab0SWNdXnchtOyGicyqafIYTYv0VwBnW8ZCnQ/640?wx_fmt=png&quot;) left bottom / 40% no-repeat;"><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(91, 113, 126);border-right: 1px solid rgb(91, 113, 126);border-left: none;border-bottom: none;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width:22px;margin-top: -7px;background: rgb(254,254,254);padding: 2px 0px;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.7894736842105263" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dLXdLwxXzwmfEUFXKyhWj0KMFax3xl1IU8tpu4Z85OUg3cQQT7o44ow/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="19" style="width:12px;display: block;margin: 0px auto;" /> </section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1、上涨趋势低吸买</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2、横盘震荡低吸买<br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>3、大跌横盘突破买</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>4、加速下跌要空仓</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>5、买错止损前低卖<br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>6、买对止盈死叉卖</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></section><section style="text-align: right;margin-top: -9px;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width:50%;display: inline-block;" data-width="50%" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width:100%;height: 1px;background:#5b717e;" data-width="100%" mpa-from-tpl="t"><br /></section><section style="width:22px;background: rgb(254,254,254);margin-top: -5px;padding: 2px 0px;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.7894736842105263" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dLXdLwxXzwmfEUFXKyhWj0KMFax3xl1IU8tpu4Z85OUg3cQQT7o44ow/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="19" style="width:13px;display: block;margin: 0px auto;transform: scale(-1);-webkit-transform: scale(-1);-moz-transform: scale(-1);-o-transform: scale(-1);" /> </section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>前三句是描述入场点,后三句是描述出场点及风控</strong>,您可能觉得有点老土,但先别急,<strong>如果真正能理解并做到这几点,其实已经能在市场上能打赢大部分人</strong>,接下来我们对这背后的逻辑进行推导。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;<br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1.1</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>策略盈亏的构成要素</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">首先我们讲<strong>策略盈亏的构成要素,从而我们可以知道如何去评价一个策略的好坏,反过来我们可以以此为契机去设计一个策略</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">投机市场是<strong>受益与风险并存的概率游戏</strong>,那么<strong>考虑了概率与风险后的盈利来源是什么?</strong>我们回归到一条基本的<strong>数学期望公式——期望收益公式</strong>:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6453022578295703" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7drjh6MDqwPt8dBbGGQnKVAAALBr15NmcyUedwsmN0SxcGOhlwWSAIBA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1373" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">举个简单例子容易理解,玩一个游戏,掷均匀硬币,如果是正面可以有2块钱奖励,如果反面那么是1块钱惩罚,最终的期望收益就是0.5*2 – 0.5*1 = 0.5,所以本游戏的期望收益是0.5,期望收益大于零,所以这种游戏有多少次就可以玩多少次最后大概率稳赚。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">用这个公式做一个简单的归一化我们就得到,<strong>平摊到风险或者说亏损上的期望收益等于胜率(同义词:赢率)与盈亏比(同义词:赔率)之积减去失败概率</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;text-align: center;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">引用一句名人名言<em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">“一个人的命运啊,当然要靠自我奋斗,但是也要考虑到历史的行程”</span></em>。决定<strong>策略盈亏的三大基石是:交易频率,胜率和盈亏比</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.576536312849162" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dNiceQAAtyyAc0QTpf273KGCNCDh4wACdJgpAHG0kLBXj0VHU0xVibFSw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1790" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们可以用人生道路打个比方,如何构筑一个成功的人生策略呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>· 交易频率</strong>就是做多少次尝试,如果一个人性格坚韧,那么更容易百折不挠,抓住机遇。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>· 胜率</strong>就是一件事情能做成功的概率有多大,可能取决于个人的能力,智慧聪明等。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>· 盈亏比</strong>就是一个人把自己的时间与生命奉献给何种事业,付出了怎样的成本努力去博取多大的成功,可能取决于诸如勇敢、运气这样的东西。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>同时,除了这三要素之外</strong>,还有<strong>历史进程</strong>的决定性作用。对于股票投机来说,<strong>交易频率</strong>是否具有覆盖全市场的交易机会,交易换手率是否够高。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>胜率</strong>取决于交易者的投机知识经验能力。<strong>盈亏比</strong>就是投资人承担怎样的风险,去博取怎样的收益,同时这三者都受到外部<strong>市场环境</strong>的制约。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>而策略的本质,可以概括为是关于“如何选择”的方法论</strong>,有些选择是天定的,而有些选择是主观能动的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>通俗点说就是“在什么时间应该做什么事”,从而最终会得到一组交易频率,胜率与盈亏比,这是策略的结果。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><em>&nbsp;</em></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5058365758754864" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dGyibG1Y9P8qbnD9cqicogia9Drjoy1F21WbBWibObnnfZEGBYsGl4cVBXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1799" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们以终为始,<strong>如何最大化期望收益?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据这条公式,</span><strong style="font-size: 14px;">最大化期望收益就相当于最大化胜率,同时最大化盈亏比</strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最大化胜率也就相当于最小化失败率,对应到交易里,我们应当思考——参考什么信号,在什么样的行情中做什么方向的交易胜率高?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最大化盈亏比就是最小化亏损同时最大化盈利——那么在什么位置交易赔率盈亏比高?如何做风控从而最小化亏损(止损)?如何吃到最大利润同时减少利润回吐(止盈)?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们带着这些关键问题往下走。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;<br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1.2</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>股价能否预测?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下面我们从统计视角看,股价是否能够预测?股价是纯粹的随机游走吗?收益率的分布是高斯正态分布吗?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>随机游走的东西不能预测,但是股价的收益率运行并不是不可预测的纯粹的随机游走</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大部分股票像上证指数一样,大部分时间在窄幅震荡,<strong>暴涨暴跌时间相对较短,但具有较大惯性</strong>,也就是说<strong>暴跌之后更容易继续跌,暴涨之后更容易继续涨,这点恰恰可作为股价预测的抓手。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5230280571731075" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dHWNUWWK3nALnJtXDwVLykvN3cPwsoPmKYXKPJzxiayjRxXAVBZ9nrZg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1889" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果我们把<strong>股价收益率</strong>(就是每天的涨跌幅)做成右边的概率密度图,收益率更可能是<strong>尖峰肥尾</strong>的分布,<strong>“尖峰”</strong>指平均值附近的值多于正态分布,<strong>“肥尾”</strong>指远离平均值的左右两边的极端值多于正态分布。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">相较于正态分布的<strong>“尖峰”</strong>,也就是不怎么赚、也不怎么亏的盘整震荡区间会占据更大部分,右侧的肥尾是<strong>“暴赚区”</strong>,反映主升浪的正反馈自我强化,左侧的肥尾是<strong>“暴亏区”</strong>,反映主跌浪的自我强化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们在<strong>理想的策略设计</strong>中想<strong>避免买入中间与左侧</strong>的<strong>“尖峰区”与“暴亏区”</strong>,减少等待时间与承受亏损的时间,只抓主升浪的<strong>右侧“暴赚区”</strong>最大化资金的盈利效率,有没有可能做到呢?</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">既然股价收益率分布不是正态分布的,<strong>那么股价预测就有了“可乘之机”</strong>,站在巨人的肩膀,我们看看投资(机)界是怎么解决这个问题的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>我们可以把价格运动想象成军队打仗,多空对决,多方买入抬价,空方做空压价</strong>。那么两军对战,哪一方会赢呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">投资者既是观察方,也是参与者,预测股价涨跌我们可以想象成<strong>“两军对战,哪一方会赢?在哪一方下注?”</strong>。我们<strong>基于一些信息去预测战争的结果</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5231335436382755" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7drMEvPgPaicnUNDt8icCzgFD042wF5TlT4qJTpEM8vZx10JI4s1iaZ8W8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1902" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这些信息包括很多分类,有供求关系,公司盈利能力等,<strong>基本面分析派</strong>认为这些信息对股价的预测有决定性作用,而另一些信息关乎价格的运行规律,趋势规律,<strong>技术分析派</strong>认为这些信息对股价的预测有决定性作用,两者其实<strong>都认为股价是可预测的,但对信息利用的价值观不同,下注方式也不同</strong>——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>基本面派</strong>可能喜欢一次性下注,赌长期来看大战争谁赢。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>技术派</strong>可能像喜欢在不同方向多次下注的机会主义者,把一次大战争的下注分解成多个小战役的下注。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而我们是<strong>量化分析派</strong>,可以融众家之所长,由于我们要做择时策略,所以我们会更多地借鉴技术分析派的成果。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1.3</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>价格演化的规律 &amp; 交易胜率的提升</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>如果价格演化是有规律的,不是完全随机的,那我们怎样做可以提高交易胜率呢?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>技术分析派认为,价格是以趋势的形式运行展开的,而当趋势形成后,也由于惯性而难以改变,除非受到外力影响</strong>,这也解释了收益率“尖峰肥尾”的肥尾分布现象,技术派擅长识别趋势。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>当识别出下跌趋势转折或者上涨趋势,我们适时介入将提升入场胜率</strong>,更大概率抓到“<strong>暴赚区</strong>”的主升浪。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5662100456621004" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dyB6SSTEzQpACXK9ygAyZl2R1m89SJxOqiaOK97T5bBjPtAhqXyeQfXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1752" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6536164565361645" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dcX5F0pYqJDs7MQsFDHdSCotIPwjbb7NyodlWBDUlrGNqT2BuIrSDyQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1507" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们根据技术分析派祖师爷,查尔斯道的道氏理论看如何识别趋势。他对<strong>上升趋势</strong>定义是<strong>依次上升的峰和谷</strong>,对<strong>下降趋势</strong>定义是<strong>依次下降的峰和谷</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5777906304222094" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7d27or0fF7bsQpIQTWEzibxiaAelic2TZovWKS6ia2e5dSGKNkxricfcXTxhA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1729" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如何识别趋势反转?<strong>上升趋势反转,不创新高,跌破前低。下降趋势反转,不创新低,突破前高。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4938403856454205" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7ds71L0EXyc4rNEb3icglGQpq01nWH5tKeHMM92F9Clc5e2RY6S5gGZfQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1867" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5641173087981599" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dxWHzcG1hkiakVdyialur40JofggTaeFQZ71MOXa4TibrXyhzq3dnhKBQg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1739" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>这里引出提高胜率的第一法则,在上升趋势里,只做多,下降趋势里,只做空</strong>。小资金投机只做锦上添花、落井下石,见风使舵,不做雪中送炭,(我是说投机,做人当然不能这样!)不逆大趋势而动。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;<br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1.4</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>支撑压力位 &amp; 盈亏比的提升</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>这一节我们想解决一个问题,“在什么位置下注,盈亏比会比较大?”。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>价格会以惯性趋势方式运行,直到遇到外力改变,那么价格运行会受到哪些外力呢?这些外力又是怎样影响到盈亏比的高低?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以把价格想象成是弹珠游戏桌上的小球,他的运动会受到周围各种挡板的阻碍,从而改变了小球的运行轨迹。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">也可以把价格想象成是攻城掠地的兵团,多空双方都有层层<strong>掩体或堡垒</strong>,这些堡垒很多可以是<strong>历史价格的密集成交区域,形成重要的攻防位置,从而改变了完全随机的概率分布。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>这些重要的攻防位置,就是支撑位与压力位,对股价起支撑作用的叫支撑位,对股价起压制作用的叫压力位,支撑与压力之间可以相互转化。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5549295774647888" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dFIqTW2n7xMD22wlf1iaf8d9Ng3jpSJ1SDkCYbCSBW4j4ZiayooDic0dxg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1775" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5462603878116343" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7d3pibb6XzGkgWClkoYj8WN4lYp0gCWASTXjo7WFqBaL70dbMx1mSIa3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1805" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4877742946708464" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dj7fngvhMibyB4PePldJo3xlUvdvCMRktzTSJHFnvUIV4UXKOtUr1xiaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1595" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>如何理解这种互相转化呢?</strong>比如原属于空方的堡垒被多方抢占后,将变为多方供给下一据点的基地,反之亦然<strong>。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">均线系统是由一组n日移动平均线构成,本质是n日的平均成本线,它不仅是经典的趋势度量工具,同时也标注了重要的支撑压力位置。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">单根均线的行为意义可能较小,<strong>当多条均线出现一些行为时,往往更值得关注</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4884937238493724" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dialpRHQ5VQqAuNyV6PAKV2QOkLDDhGianNVe785tdRAFQ3uHHkEeO7Rw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1912" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>我们继续思考本节的核心问题:在什么位置下注(入场)盈亏比高?</strong>谈到位置,这就不得不引入一个重要概念——<strong>左/右侧交易。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5531914893617021" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dDAnNGpPpQgrviaI7qz9u588AbMacEBGqKQCUPh69txGc9y2tSNxOYmw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1786" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">什么叫左侧交易?相对于谁的左侧呢?<strong>是相对于极值点。当极大/小值出现之前的交易,叫左侧交易,之后的交易叫右侧交易。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下跌区间左侧买入就是一般说的抄底,很可能会越抄越低,可能抄底者会以为越跌盈利空间越大从而盈亏比很大,<strong>但他可能忽略了在下跌趋势中其实买涨的胜率很低。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果在下跌区间右侧买入的话,<strong>虽然损失了一定盈亏比,但保证了入场点具有较高的胜率</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下边我们回答本节的问题,<strong>在支撑位右侧入场做多的盈亏比较大</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5645256334708308" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dXEBElDJqqyHqyxzSA0xPNbSZ8pIa883st7CKe0XrDm64AbN7Qeufcw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1697" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">具体来说<strong>支撑位附近入场</strong>分以上图示<strong>两种情况</strong>,右边叫<strong>低吸入场</strong>,左边叫<strong>突破入场</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>突破买入</strong>是基于<strong>动量/惯性</strong>,股价<strong>穿破上压力后</strong>,<strong>赌上涨趋势延续</strong>,<strong>此时上边被突破的压力位成为新的支撑位</strong>,可以想象成是一支军团,攻下一座城池后,势如破竹<strong>趁胜追击</strong>,直接进攻下一个敌方堡垒。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而<strong>低吸买入</strong>则是基于<strong>反转/均值回转</strong>,<strong>跌到下支撑位后</strong>,<strong>赌反弹</strong>,可以想象成是一个军队暂时被敌军击退,<strong>集结残部退守基地,待其他援军赶到,补给休整到位后重新向敌军发起新一轮进攻</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>突破或低吸这两种入场点,都在支撑位附近</strong>,<strong>在这里下注最为安全</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为堡垒附近的援军更多,<strong>如若这里被敌方攻破,敌方基本会如入无人之境直接冲向下一支撑,我们可以在支撑位下方附近及时止损</strong>(比如支撑位下方3%的区间,以证明支撑位被确定击穿),从而可以<strong>以最小的代价</strong>,集结最大的剩余兵力在下一个支撑位重新发起进攻。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>所以这个位置进可攻(盈利空间较大),退可守(割肉止损空间较窄所以并不太痛),从而提升了盈亏比</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可能明眼人这里已经看出来了,<strong>入场点的好坏是会对出场点的好坏产生决定性作用,也会直接决定了持股过程是否舒服。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>好的入场点会比较“舒服”,而让人感觉不舒服大概率入场点是错的</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5116525423728814" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dqsKV3g9wbpKnYAV4DBvSMBnnCzziaqHeWqK89vribX5eia5C2WNU9pSqg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1888" style=""></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);background: white;font-size: 14px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182"><span style="background-color: white;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;text-align: left;"></span><span style="background-color: white;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;text-align: left;">&nbsp;</span></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);background: white;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1.5</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>对市场行情进行划分 &amp; 交易策略</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7292682926829268" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7d1a42I8f7O9Va0VpS5dnCwhia9ulQEM6kqxCibWkoibyE9eH7ic1qk8cfNQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1230" style="" /><span style="text-align: left;font-size: 14px;">重复前文所讲的什么叫策略,即“在什么时间应该做什么事”。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="text-align: left;font-size: 14px;"><br /></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="text-align: left;font-size: 14px;">所以首先我们要先将有多少种不同的市场行情状态进行划分</strong><span style="text-align: left;font-size: 14px;">,然后我们讨论在不同的行情状态下,应该做怎样的动作可以提升胜率与盈亏比。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">把行情想象成一个类似正弦波一样的<strong>周期</strong>,大致划分为加速下跌-底部盘整-加速上涨-顶部盘整-加速下跌这几个环节不断循环。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">现实的周期与正弦波不同,盘整区间时间需要拉更长,只是运用这样的图方便我们进行想象。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5814855875831486" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dnia1fbVNDTO4tXoHw3wbuKESXYKAEIYtfC155oEyT1LmMWl4cBKQxxA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1804" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下面进入42字口诀正文,由于本文篇幅所限先讨论心法,所以只涉及理论,至于如何落地量化,请关注下一篇</span>身<span style="font-size: 14px;">法篇,之后重新开篇再叙。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">先讲第三、四句,<strong>这两句是针对较大的行情周期</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第四句<strong>“加速下跌要空仓”</strong>,就是<strong>股价在大的加速下跌的过程中应尽量空仓</strong>,<strong>而非进行不断的左侧抄底补仓企图降低成本</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下跌中途出现的买入信号,很可能只是下跌过程中的中继反弹。如何大体确定下跌加速呢?可以用参考均线之间的乖离程度,在加速的过程中,均线之间或者K线·与均线之间一般会加速远离。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第三句<strong>“大跌横盘突破买”</strong>是说,当股价经过大跌见底横盘重新起涨时,理想的入场买入点在股价<strong>突破</strong>下降阻力线后右侧介入。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">虽然会<strong>损失一定盈亏比,但是可以保证较大的胜率,因为底部已现,同时也可规避前期漫长的大跌后横盘盘整吸筹期,增加资金使用效率</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这里的<strong>突破信号</strong>可以采用类似“一阳穿n线”、“出水芙蓉”类的k线突破形态。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5650723025583982" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dX8CibC9QKha0gJcib94TznR3l9ygKib3OTBzXDYlSsAEUwsic7oXrM7MRg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1798" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>第一句口诀“上涨趋势低吸买”,这句是针对大周期中的小周期,解决在一个上涨趋势中,如何找到比较好的买点的问题。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本质就是常说的“<strong>顺大周期,逆小周期</strong>”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>上涨趋势中应当等待回调后,在小周期底部右侧介入,即“低吸”买入</strong>。这是因为<strong>上涨趋势本身胜率高但盈亏比低的特征,为了保证盈亏比不进一步损失,采取右侧低吸,而不是做“突破”追高从而进一步拉低盈亏比</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5369458128078818" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dlYOibVeicIPu4JleRDmnGyfcd7BIo9q0vVImqfHMOa4dImx0njIVlgzQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1827" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 14px;">第二句口诀:“横盘震荡低吸买”,</strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">这句主要针对</span><strong style="font-size: 14px;">股价在一个窄幅震荡区间内反复震荡时,如何入场</strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,此时应当采取</span><strong style="font-size: 14px;">回调到支撑位附近右侧低吸买入,而最好不做突破</strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为股价此时被限制在</span><strong style="font-size: 14px;">一个小区间内波动,盈亏比被压缩,低吸买入,可保证一定盈亏比</strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,退可做区间内的高抛低吸,进可等待向上突破阻力线,同时可预防假突破。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5486922648859209" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dmibpqjIqMbs7uG1728yeDr0KP9sziaeWEx3yFvzKkn2ibw5rSh5icvz9XA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1797" style="" /><strong style="font-size: 14px;text-align: left;">&nbsp;</strong></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>最后来到第五、六句口诀,这两句是针对如何出场的。第五句“买错止损前低卖”这句是说止损,“买对止盈死叉卖”这句是说止盈,有且只有这两种离场方式。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>做错了离场是止损,</strong>这说明市场此时证明之前的买入点是错的,无论是低吸或者突破入场,<strong>都可以在支撑位或者前低之下3%附近止损</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">再加上买入点是右侧,所以需要3~5%左右的检验区间,<strong>这样总共损失在5%~8%</strong>,但在每个资产的不同权重分仓风控资金管理下,这个损失可以进一步缩小(例如20%的分仓情况下,总本金亏损可以控制在1%~1.6%)。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">迅速而果断的止损,防止亏损进一步扩大,<strong>从而可以实现对盈亏比分母——亏损的最小化。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>第六句“买对止盈死叉卖”,这句是说如何止盈,止盈就是当入场点对了,赚钱“吃到肉”之后如何保住利润尽量减少回吐。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>赚到钱说明已经抓到一波上升趋势,</strong>我们可以利用这个做一个监测开关,比如一旦盈利6%以上,就开启止盈规则的判断,具体规则比如可以用趋势指标如MACD死叉、短期均线对中期均线的死叉来判断离场信号。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>有经验的老手可能会说,趋势指标的缺陷如何避免的问题</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">一个是在震荡市场中趋势指标会<strong>反复发出噪音信号</strong>,另一个问题是其<strong>时间上的迟钝滞后性,但是这两个问题在这里可能都不是大问题</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>第一点</strong>由于6%以上的盈利基本说明趋势形成,所以此时并不是震荡区间,所以反复噪音信号问题可能影响较小(对于一些波动较大的大牛股来说可能更适于用其他方式止盈,比如,在最大利润回撤某个幅度时做<strong>跟踪止盈</strong>。)。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>第二点</strong>是我们可以恰好利用指标的这种迟钝性,变废为宝,来做到“<strong>慢止盈</strong>”<strong>,给利润留足时间空间去发展与飞奔,从而实现对盈亏比分子——盈利的最大化。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>总之,入场与止损速度应当快,止盈速度应当慢,通过这种节奏控制可以提高整体盈亏比。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大对数人顺着人性其实喜欢反着来——入场的时候比较犹豫,各种研究,然后看到涨得很凶的时候才毫不犹豫杀入,结果特别容易追高然后马上回调。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">当<strong>看到有亏损的时候</strong>喜欢扛着,然后任由亏损发展积重难返,<strong>看到有一点盈利的时候</strong>就特别喜欢落袋为安,生怕一个波动给弄丢了,<strong>整体行为不断降低盈亏比。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>由于入场要快,突破类买点比较直观</strong>,越过了重要压力位就是越过了,所见即所得,<strong>那如何快速判断低吸买点呢?</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这时可能不能依赖指标发出信号,比如金叉类信号滞后性明显,<strong>由于低吸本来就对盈亏比敏感,滞后性只会降低盈亏比,从而容易把低吸变为“高吸”</strong>,丧失盈亏比优势。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而一个最短的K线止跌信号是什么呢?<strong>可以参考底分型结构,只需要支撑位附近出现的3~4根K线来以最快速度得到入场信号。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5501043841336117" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dtIWzooabG7jpHxLvY4vq42qAnBZjA8NH4BENaWFFY2jf6UGmg7bRbQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1916" style=""></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>到此我们就解释了全部的择时策略心法,这些主题主要包括策略收益的来源,胜率与盈亏比,价格的演化规律,支撑与压力位,行情的划分,入场出场点的选择。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182"></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1.6</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>计划你的交易,交易你的计划</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>做交易之前最好实现做好自己的交易计划</strong>,比如入场的时候就应当问自己几个问题——</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这个点位胜率怎样?当前的行情是在哪个阶段?是在加速暴跌的趋势、大跌后的盘整区间、还是在上涨趋势中?盈亏比如何?向上的空间有多少?如果行情不及预期,反向运行,那么在何处防守?向下的一个支撑位在何处?如果做对了方向,在何处止盈?</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">之后可以在超越个股的维度,放眼于大市场,个股所属的板块、板块所属的大盘行情、胜率、盈亏比分别怎样?<strong>做好自己的交易计划之后,剩下的就只是安心交易你的计划。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>佛家讲因果,高手重因</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">计划与执行计划是<strong>因</strong>,赚钱是<strong>果</strong>。所有人到这个市场来都是想来赚钱的,但是市场是狼吃羊的游戏,最好先认清自己是羊还是狼。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">赚到钱只是结果,但是凭什么能赚到钱呢?</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>高手执着于把投机的所有前置动作做规范,做到行云流水,</strong>什么时间应该做什么事情,简单的事情重复做,让钱大概率自动上门。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果盲目地就只是为了赚钱来到这个市场来,总执着于果而非因,残忍些说可能大概率是在给市场送钱。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;<br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 91px;height: 33px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.3626373626373626" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1Niae4UOm4xBD5kj0ZjnfwOBLqpHvYl71CDSmdgIhLFmZIb461UxRnmO8ibEh69EA6yicUzVdez0C0xmrVEvLwr6A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="182"></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>1.7</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>策略盈利的根源的根源:信</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">其实听很多高手说,拿着策略回测历史数据的时候,你感受到的基本是盈利的喜悦,<strong>而拿着策略做实盘交易的时候,感受到的净是亏损、净值波动利润回撤带来的痛苦</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">痛苦的过程非常磨人,那什么才能支撑你拿着策略坚持跟随下去呢?</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可能不是策略的历史回测业绩有多么优秀,也可能不是用到了什么高精尖火箭科学,而是——<strong>信</strong>,是你相信你的投资逻辑,你相信你策略的设计逻辑,因为她看起来只是些合理简单,浅显直白的大道理。</span></section><p style="text-align:left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:left;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;padding: 6px 0px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 26px;height: 29px;" data-mid="" 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