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快手科技在AI竞争中逆势上扬,Nomura维持买入评级,目标价86港元!

发布于 2025-08-22

<p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">大家好!今天给大家分享一个投资热点——快手科技(1024.HK)。最近,Nomura(野村证券)发布了一份深度研究报告,分析了快手在激烈市场竞争中的表现,特别是其AI产品Kling的亮眼成绩。报告维持快手的“买入”评级,并将目标价提高到86港元,预期涨幅高达20%。下面,我带大家看看这份报告的核心内容。</span></p><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">一、快手整体稳健,Q2业绩预计符合预期</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">尽管短视频市场竞争激烈,快手表现依旧坚挺。Nomura预测,快手2025年第二季度收入将增长11%,达到345亿元人民币;非GAAP运营利润增长17%,达到49亿元。这些数据与市场预期一致,显示快手业务稳步推进。收入结构中,广告服务贡献最大(占比57%),同比增长12%;电商GMV增长14%,达到3480亿元。这说明快手的核心业务没有因对手(如抖音)的冲击而掉队。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">Nomura强调,管理层之前已提供清晰指引,Q2业绩不会有大意外。这背后是快手在用户黏性和商业化上的持续优化。例如,直播和电商板块虽增速放缓(直播仅增5%),但整体利润率提升,体现了运营效率的改善。</span></p><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">二、Kling AI产品成亮点,收入超预期增长</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">报告最吸睛的部分是快手的AI产品Kling。这是一个文本转视频生成工具,主要服务于短视频内容创作者。尽管市场上涌现了新对手(如Hailuo AI、Runway AI),Kling的表现依然强劲。Nomura指出,Kling的用户活跃度保持稳定,尤其是在移动端APP上,这对维持产品热度至关重要。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">具体来看,Kling的每周收入持续走高,第二季度收入预计达到2.5亿人民币(第一季度为1.5亿)。这表明用户付费意愿强劲,尤其是短视频制作人这类早期采用者。Nomura预测,Kling的2025全年收入可能突破1.4亿美元,远高于公司此前保守指引的1亿美元。未来,快手计划将Kling扩展到电影、动画和广告行业,这将大幅提升其变现潜力。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042900" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlCzViagu99H4L2Gp3aofpdIvicMyoBJIrzGxicj9WaQNfK8VE26jr0PPrX17rZlLibNaj5jcp72ibwaBQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">同时,Kling的每日活跃用户(DAU)趋势也令人鼓舞。SensorTower数据显示,APP的周活跃用户量保持韧性,证明产品在用户黏性上不输对手。Nomura认为,这得益于Kling的持续升级计划——管理层将在未来公布更多功能更新,以吸引更多企业用户。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042901" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlCzViagu99H4L2Gp3aofpdIgyibUIJrIus7Nh36Ze0HjPfX8YibJfajiaSKibE0HjptvIR88QaSAf0X2w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">三、估值提升至86港元,风险不容忽视</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">基于Kling的强劲表现和整体业务增长,Nomura将快手目标价从63港元上调至86港元,对应2026年预期市盈率15倍(当前为12倍)。估值提升的原因有二:一是Kling的估值从8.63亿美元升至13亿美元(基于7倍2026年预期销售额);二是快手核心业务的利润增长预期提高(2026年EPS增长18%)。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">Nomura采用分步估值法(SOTP):</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">核心业务价值440亿美元(基于12倍2026年预期市盈率)。</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">Kling价值13亿美元。</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">加上净现金38亿美元,总目标市值488亿美元,对应每股86港元。</span></p></span></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">但报告也提示了风险:竞争加剧(尤其是抖音的威胁)、Kling发展不及预期,以及监管政策变化。投资者需留意这些潜在波动点。</span></p><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">四、投资建议:抓住20%上涨空间</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">Nomura维持“买入”评级,认为快手当前股价(71.6港元)被低估,上行空间显著。公司2025-2027年的年化盈利增速预计达16%,结合AI赛道的潜力,快手是长期布局的好选择。简单说,Nomura的观点是:快手不仅挺过了竞争寒冬,还在AI风口上加速起飞!</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">如果你是投资者,不妨关注快手Q2财报发布(预计近期公布),验证这些预测。快手的故事,远未结束——AI驱动的新增长,才刚刚开始!</span></p><p><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 18px;line-height: inherit;font-family: iconfont-yb !important;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"></span></p><p><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: inherit;font-family: iconfont-yb !important;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;pointer-events: auto;width: 14px;height: 14px;border-radius: 4px;display: flex;align-items: center;transition: transform 0.2s ease-out;"></span></p><p><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 18px;line-height: inherit;font-family: iconfont-yb !important;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"></span></p><p><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 18px;line-height: inherit;font-family: iconfont-yb !important;font-optical-sizing: 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