恒瑞医药（600276.SS）：创新药销售目标25%高增长，海外授权收入将成新支柱

<h4 data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">一、核心亮点速览</span></span><br /><span leaf="">高盛最新研报将恒瑞医药目标价上调至77.57元（当前价64.98元，潜在涨幅19.4%），核心逻辑基于两大增长引擎：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">创新药国内销售</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：2025-2027年目标复合增长率25%+（不含税销售额153/192/240亿元）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1u:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">海外授权收入</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：与GSK等巨头的合作项目进展超预期，首付款5亿美元将分阶段确认</span></section></li></ol><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">二、国际化突破：license-out进入收获期</span></span><br /><span leaf="">恒瑞的BD（业务发展）收入正从"一次性收益"转变为</span><strong><span leaf="">可持续现金流</span></strong><span leaf="">，关键项目进展：</span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">GLP-1双靶点药物HRS9531</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：合作伙伴Kailera即将启动全球III期临床</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r20:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">TSLP单抗SHR-1905</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：GSK已开展II期研究（哮喘/特应性皮炎）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r22:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">PARP1抑制剂HRS-1167</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：默克集团进入Ib临床（卵巢癌）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r24:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">DLL3抗体偶联药物SHR-4849</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：已向FDA提交IND申请</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r26:"></span></p></section></li></ul><p><span leaf="">最新与GSK达成的</span><strong><span leaf="">PDE3/4抑制剂等11个早期项目合作</span></strong><span leaf="">，5亿美元首付款将根据里程碑达成情况分阶段确认。高盛预计，恒瑞现有100+个临床阶段资产和每年20+个新增临床项目，将持续产出优质license-out标的。</span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">三、国内创新药：25%增速的底气何在？</span></span><br /><strong><span leaf="">三大增长驱动力</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">产品梯队优化</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：非肿瘤管线占比提升（如JAK1抑制剂艾玛昔替尼已上市，安全性显著优于竞品）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">销售体系改革</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：新建生物药专职团队，销售费用率有望下降</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r2a:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">医保放量</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：现有8款创新药纳入NRDL（国家医保目录），2025年预计新增2-3款</span></section></li></ol><p><span leaf="">重点产品</span><strong><span leaf="">艾玛昔替尼</span></strong><span leaf="">的差异化优势：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">起效更快（24小时显著改善瘙痒）</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">安全性更优（3级不良反应发生率仅1.2%）</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">疗效更持久（16周应答率维持90%+）</span></section></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">四、财务预测：利润结构质变</span></span></h4><p><span leaf="">（插入利润构成对比图）</span><br /><span leaf="">高盛上调2026-2027年盈利预测24%/25%，核心假设：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">毛利率</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：维持85%+（创新药占比提升抵消集采影响）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">研发投入</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：保持营收30%的高强度（2025年预计超100亿元）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">现金流</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：海外授权收入将覆盖50%+研发支出</span></section></li></ul><table><thead><tr><th><section><span leaf="">年份</span></section></th><th><section><span leaf="">营收(亿元)</span></section></th><th><section><span leaf="">净利润(亿元)</span></section></th><th><section><span leaf="">每股收益(元)</span></section></th><th><section><span leaf="">市盈率</span></section></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><section><span leaf="">2025E</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">337.6</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">108.4</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">1.39</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">46.7x</span></section></td></tr><tr><td><section><span leaf="">2026E</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">380.4</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">122.4</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">1.45</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">41.4x</span></section></td></tr><tr><td><section><span leaf="">2027E</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">434.7</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">153.0</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">1.83</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">35.5x</span></section></td></tr></tbody></table><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">五、估值解析：77.57元目标价如何得出？</span></span><br /><span leaf="">高盛采用</span><strong><span leaf="">分部估值法</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">仿制药业务</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：93.6亿元估值（14倍2027年PE）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r2c:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">创新药业务</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：340.5亿元估值（DCF模型，WACC 9%，永续增长率3%）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r2e:"></span></p></section></li></ol><p><span leaf="">关键溢价因素：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">临床管线厚度</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：20+个年度新增临床项目行业领先</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">国际化能力</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：与GSK/默克等巨头的深度合作验证研发实力</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">销售转化效率</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：专职团队推动新产品快速放量</span></section></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;">六、投资时点：为什么现在布局？</span></span></h4><p><strong><span leaf="">三大催化剂临近</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">GLP-1全球III期启动</span></strong><section><span leaf="">（2025Q4）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">医保谈判结果</span></strong><section><span leaf="">（2025年12月）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">JAK1抑制剂放量数据</span></strong><section><span leaf="">（2026Q1）</span></section></li></ol><p><span leaf="">当前46.7倍2025年PE低于创新药龙头平均水平（55-60倍），估值修复空间显著。</span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><blockquote><p><strong><span leaf="">小编观察</span></strong><span leaf="">：恒瑞正在完成从"中国仿制药巨头"到"全球创新药玩家"的蜕变。投资者可重点关注：①海外临床进展公告 ②创新药销售季度环比增速。下一个关键节点是10月GLP-1 III期方案细节披露。</span></p></blockquote><p><span leaf="">（插入恒瑞医药上海研发中心实景图）</span></p><p><em><span leaf="">数据来源：高盛全球投资研究《Hengrui Medicine》(2025年8月25日</span></em></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>