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房价涨了37%!这个小县城也有大涨的春天?

发布于 2022-03-25

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border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 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!important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;&nbsp; /&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CHAPEAU</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);color: rgb(102, 102, 102);text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本文内容主要来源2022.03.24禾略城市研究线上分享会</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">线上课程,有很多临场发挥的元素,时而精彩、时而拉跨,为了更准确的传达,我将分几个小课题,简要梳理下课程分享的一些观点和内容,供大家批判指正。</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">说到城市,从当下行情出发,我不得不深度反思:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 24px;"><strong>城市研究,究竟是研究什么?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果都只剩下产品销售,不存在投资拿地、需求调研、产品定位,彷佛只需要关注渠道和价格。但作为大多数仍需要持续奋斗在房地产行业的同学来说,这是个不可回避的问题,也是个必须深入的课题。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">很多人说,绿城、滨江2021年表现非常稳健,得益于其超强的产品力,这点我并不否认,但同时还想补充个视角,就是他们的大本营浙江市场同样表现非常稳健,2021年全年销售额为1.91万亿,销售额同比增长11.1%,即可获取稳定的β收益。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">/&nbsp;PART 1/</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;">小城市真的就不行吗?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">不同于其他省域,大城市好,小城市衰,浙江是大、中、小城市全面开花的格局,跟党中央提出的“共同富裕”典范区域相当匹配。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接下来我们以一个不知名的小县城“金华-永康”为例,看看它的市场表现:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="137" data-ratio="0.25053763440860216" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxWCbndaiaOFxjHYBIej21EGGF55AzvdnFv4DnxIHvTQR9UP9uh7icUeYlyvzHtAiczuibIiaA5b5hJh6Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1860" style="width: 547px;height: 137px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们可以看到在2021年他走出了完全独立的行情,以2021-12月数据来看,房价同比涨幅达到</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>36.97%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,一二手房综合价格为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>22150元/平</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,房价水平基本同我们熟知的新一线均价相当。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">还有个有趣的现象,就是2018-2020年它的市场表现相对稳健,并没有出现类同宁波、杭州等城市那样的持续火热,也就是说,如果想获取这波上涨收益,得耐得住2018-2020年“多年”的寂寞,或者用事后诸葛亮的视角,就是2020年底杀进去。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">/&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">PART</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">&nbsp;2</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">&nbsp;/</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 24px;"><strong>小城市客群就更单一吗?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">地产从事多年的我们,通常会习惯性认为,小城市支付力不足,人口吸引力有限,都是刚需主导,追求性价比。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以同步看几个数据,或许有不一样的认知:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="205" data-ratio="0.3764643237486688" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxWCbndaiaOFxjHYBIej21EGNosOWBhZXHgutFDW7yMhticXr2onXT3pOaOwsxtvrhcTJpPNCZibHWicA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1878" style="width: 546px;height: 206px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>套均总价331万,套均面积137平</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,且结构非常丰富,套均面积达到2.5倍(约350平)以上的占比近30%。为了更形象些,我们可以跟省会城市杭州进行比较:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="231" data-ratio="0.4246939861628526" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxWCbndaiaOFxjHYBIej21EGq5jXz9ZibDpUhbu5UwCNUic4ZricE4s8wH1vic6KTsUL2dbianCbgPdhdqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1879" style="width: 546px;height: 232px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">套均总价388万,套均面积103平</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,且结构相对单一,套均面积达到2.5倍(约250平)以上的占比仅10%。为了论证这个观点,同步看了下一手房:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="256" data-ratio="0.4676180021953897" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxWCbndaiaOFxjHYBIej21EGyOBicEaCHWzL12yCvrIIlaVO1CBuGDibkU3VQibXwy6NHMicl91VJialApA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1822" style="width: 546px;height: 255px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">果然小城市也有大土豪,总价1500万+,而且不是只有这一个项目,片区还有多个类似的项目,以大平层为主,据当地朋友说,当地豪车很多,其中不乏宾利、玛莎拉蒂。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我一直认为通过汽车消费来识别客群是个很好的方式,当地有钱人多,主要是中小企业主,赚了钱特别喜欢买房,不知道这是不是浙江老板的共性。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">仔细查阅了一下新增项目的价格情况,发现价值梯队比较明显,呈现断崖式下降:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="313" data-ratio="0.5722610722610723" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxWCbndaiaOFxjHYBIej21EGicpg7TUXpoFMKHkiaHIMib5wNgAxpyY1roVBfAEFHO1RTLJmWhuA22vLg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1716" style="width: 547px;height: 313px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">房价4多万同1万多的地方仅相差5-6公里,图中是公里网格视角,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>价值逻辑同一二线存在巨大差异</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,或许当地有钱的中小老板只认可最核心的那一小片最宜居的区域,好比老北京人认为二环外就不是北京、上海土豪说出了静安就是郊区。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我觉得这种现象特别符合这种工业主导的小城市,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>地的宜居化不足,收入的两极化</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">很明显,带来的结果。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">/&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">PART</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">&nbsp;3</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">&nbsp;/</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 24px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>它的上涨逻辑是什么?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">说到这里,大家肯定好奇,是什么因素驱动它价格在2021年上涨的,是的,这个需要强调的是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>为什么是2021年?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">大家很惨它很好。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这块我没有系统的去研究,因为疫情原因也没能去实地考察,这个小案例是我浙江同学告诉我的,纯属个人兴趣做了一个挖掘,也欢迎浙江市场的同学修正补充。下面从一些2020年基本的数据进行推测,它的大概原因可能有三:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">01 疫情加速出口创富</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020年,全市实现进出口总额61.31亿美元,比2019年增长30.84%,其中出口总额60.7亿美元,占GDP比重高达58.8%(全国均值17.7%);</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这里特别需要强调的是它只有出口,几乎没有进口,是完全的可贸易创收,同时有个具体的视角是计算其出口占GDP的比重,得出的结论是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>高度外贸依赖性城市</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体创富的数据,同步可以体现在它的财政及居民存款方面。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020年,全市实现财政总收入94.07亿元。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020年末,全市金融系统(人民币)各项存款余额1428.26亿元,人均存款14.78万;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">02 房地产依赖度极低</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020年,全市固定资产投资123.3亿元,其中房地产开发完成39.7亿元,占GDP比例仅6.21% (全国均值13.92%)</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这里2个数据都值得关注和分析,小城市重点关注结构数据,而不是规模,体量不同于一二线很正常,统计地域范围就不一样。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第一个就是固投/GDP这个比值极低(0.19),全国2020年均值是0.52,大致可以解读为全国现在固定投资1块,产出2块;而永康是投资1块,产出5块;所以</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>产出效率更高</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第二个就是房地产投资的占比只有6.21%,远远低于全国均值,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>房地产投资少</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当然,如果有更多数据,可以看看建城区面积、土地出让及其变化的数据,也可以跟浙江全省比较,会有更全面的理解。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">03 劳动力吸引力极强</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这里我们引用下七普的数据:2020年,人口普查的总人口数则高达96.42万人,比10年前增加24.07万人;发达的五金产业吸引了大量外来人口在永康就业创业。数据显示,16岁-59岁就业年龄人口高达67.8万,远超同年龄段我市户籍人口38.3万,吸引外来劳动力数据高达29.5万人。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心的关键在于,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>外来劳动力占总人口比例高达30.6%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,是个极其恐怖的数据。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">/&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">PART</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">&nbsp;4</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;">&nbsp;/</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 24px;"><strong>它的行情可持续吗?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以上分析了它可能的3个上涨因素,或许通过实地考察、客户调研后有更多微观方面的洞察和原因。但更多层面是解释过去的这个现象,预判未来,我们需要</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>分析这些原因的可持续性,我认为这才是城市研究的本源</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,以下是我认为的一些路标。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">永康的3个路标或许是:</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">01国外疫情常态化后,出口是否可持续?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心指标:出口增速</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一方面可以等候2021年的数据公布,我觉得大概率还是会不错的,因为2021年中国作为世界工厂的角色在强化,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>基本面在前,市场面在后</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">;真正需要关注的是2022年国外生产功能恢复后,城市出口的情况,不同城市可能受的影响差异很大,这个可以跟踪月度公布的经济数据,是预判2022年下半年或2023年市场的一个重要路标。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">02政府见市场走好,会不会趁机套利?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心指标:土地出让建筑面积</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这个一方面观测结果,另一方面需要</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>看下财政收支的变化,即潜在的动力</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">03五金产业链的核心竞争力是否可持续?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心指标:工业企业利润增速</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">简单了解下永康,我们知道永康核心产业是五金,它这个</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>产业链的竞争力及可持续如何</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这个我觉得是城市研究目前最需要攻克的难点,需要看它的创富能力是否稳定及增长性如何。当然可以通知工业企业利润这个结果指标去洞察。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">回到一开始的问题,城市研究到底是研究什么?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">简单回到价格层面来讲:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们努力寻找的是价格背后的变化机制</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">在不确定的环境中寻找确定性:原因-结果-路标</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">通过变化的路标,找到相对确定的结果。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 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