房企中报暴雷：亏损378亿创纪录，毛利率回升难掩净利率塌陷

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是东莞证券《房地产行业2025年中报综述》的核心内容总结：</span></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="mR7mVXR9BY" data-dir-key="mR7mVXR9BY"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、业绩表现</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">营收持续下滑</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年上半年上市房企营业总收入&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">17,169.27亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比下滑&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">15.15%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，但降幅较2024年同期收窄8.85个百分点。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Q2单季营收4,002.64亿元，同比降&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">17.36%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（环比Q1上升26.4%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">亏损大幅扩大</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">归母净利润&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-378.38亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，亏损同比扩大&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">158.26%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">；单Q2亏损&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-285.5亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，环比恶化207.4%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业首次录得中期营业利润亏损（-157.38亿元）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="llII4_qjZE" data-dir-key="llII4_qjZE"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、盈利能力</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">毛利率边际改善，净利率触底</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">毛利率&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">14.5%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（较2024全年微降0.06个百分点），但Q2环比连续4季度上升，达&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">14.63%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">净利率&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-4.4%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，跌至历史底部；Q2净利率进一步降至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-5.96%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ROE为&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">-4.04%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，连续三年半负值，行业盈利能力在申万一级行业中排名末位。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="B-T9IB859z" data-dir-key="B-T9IB859z"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、费用与负债</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三费率上升，财务成本增加</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">财务费用同比&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">+5.67%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（因融资渠道改善），带动整体三费率升至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">11.14%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比+1个百分点）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">管理/销售费用分别下降&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">14.6%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">18.18%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（控费见效）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">负债率低位，现金流改善</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">资产负债率&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">74.98%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比降0.2个百分点），维持2018年后低位。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">每股经营性现金流净额&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">0.13元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（去年同期为-0.23元），现金流转正。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="1zmlQpYG74" data-dir-key="1zmlQpYG74"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、存货与周转</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">存货规模&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4.2万亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比降&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">17.6%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">；存货占总资产比例&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">45.62%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比降2.84个百分点）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045407" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.6818181818181818" data-w="484" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9a0afN2xVThia7bMBgiaBdrgYoDubod6JZmKRrDorNicgquEfiaJW33yvDZw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">存货周转率&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">0.14次</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，与去年同期持平，反映去库存持续但速度缓慢。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="xLdQKmQkDI" data-dir-key="xLdQKmQkDI"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、投资建议</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业判断</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业处“周期低谷”，出清加速，竞争格局优化仍需时间。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险提示</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：政策不及预期（6大风险，如销售低迷、土地市场冷清、融资改善缓慢等）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">推荐标的</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp; 建议关注具备逆市扩张能力的头部央国企及区域龙头：</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">保利发展（600048）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">华发股份（600325）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">滨江集团（002244）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">招商蛇口（001979）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">城建发展（600266）</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：行业基本面仍处探底阶段，短期修复承压，但头部企业凭借融资优势和区域布局或率先复苏。需密切关注政策落地及销售数据边际变化。</span></span></span></span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>