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房地产到底还可以干几年?

发布于 2023-04-14

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!important;" /></p></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;text-align: right;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼</span></section></section></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">昨日,时隔一年,融创终于复牌了,看到了很多老朋友转发此消息。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">刚看了下,最终以-55.5%收盘,总市值仅111.2亿港元,最高市值2177亿港元,高光时刻是2020年1月2日。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">时间跨度为3年3个月,回撤幅度为94.89%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这仿佛就是过去3年房地产</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">行业的缩影:尾部风险的无穷大</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">展望未来,行业洗牌基本结束,留下的基本都是央企、国企,聚焦一二线城市进行布局,翻开各企业年报也可以发现,突出强调自己在核心城市的布局情况。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">安全与发展成为企业的核心诉求,用官话说:</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">高质量的增长</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">然而,大城市真的就安全吗?深耕核心城市就能取得增长吗?</span></strong></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-weight: bold;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">短期看,大城市也存在巨大的周期波动差异。</span></strong></p></li><li style="font-weight: bold;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">中期看,有的新一线可能沦为二线,有些二线会成为新一线。</span></strong></p></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">理论上来说,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">共识是没有价值的,分歧才能获得收益</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,叠加时间周期的风险收益研判,仍是一件很难的事情。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">今天,我们聚焦到一二线核心城市,回到一个城市内核的</span><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>就业视角</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,讨论以下4个问题:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、疫情几年,大城市提供给打工人的就业机会有多少?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、降薪潮后,还有多少人能买得起房?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、高房价下,改善真的能成为主流吗?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、有效客群VS住房供给,不同城市房地产还可以干几年?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本文选取2022年全国销售额前十城市(上海、北京、杭州、广州、成都、深圳、南京、青岛、武汉、苏州等)。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据不同城市5年招聘数据,计算各大城市楼市上车收入要求、有效客群规模及结构,研判城市供与求,得出</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">当下可开发年份、动态的供需路标</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 48px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">01&nbsp;</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;">哪个城市韧性更强?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所谓的韧性,我通常理解为抵御风险的能力,即面对不确定的环境下的应变能力。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>整体情况:</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2022年新增岗位下降八成</span></strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图1:近五年(2018-2022年)10大城市的招聘总岗位</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="302" data-ratio="0.5546296296296296" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjUR3F1GUHbtWCqyMRcq4RSxOph6A5xXn5Q4YibYqNEFFtgd9I9BGfPNsw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: justify;width: 546px;height: 303px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们选取同一智联招聘网站,近5年的数据进行横向对比,可以看到:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5年尺度:疫情2018+2019年新增岗位数为421万,疫中2021+2022年总和仅188万,下降幅度为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">55.32%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1年尺度看:2022年新增就业岗位仅32万,同比暴跌</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">79.6%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,史上最难就业季。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从这个数据可以看出为何当下会有通缩的担忧了,就业不足、收入下降,自然就没有消费动力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>城市差异:</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">北京、成都表现亮眼,韧性更足</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图2:近五年(2018-2022年)10大城市招聘岗位差异</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="326" data-ratio="0.5953703703703703" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjU2qxeY5KjrSh2Qaq7FhYqtmSibT9Q2vicuNNB7gHLZJADLicVdwkaaZBibA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: justify;width: 548px;height: 326px;" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北京</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">用人需求远超其他一线城市,高达</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">171万</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,比深圳高70万人,相当于南京、武汉、苏州、青岛等4个城市之和。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其中,2021+2022年为35.7万,大幅超过深圳的23.4万、上海的22.6万。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">还可以注意的是</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">成都</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">的招聘需求与</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一线城市最为相近</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,5年累计仅少于广州6万人,其中2021+2022年招聘岗位数达到18.7万,超过了广州的17.6万。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>但就业不等于置业。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">02&nbsp;</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;">哪个城市有效客群多?</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">大城市商品房主要是服务少数群体,所以需要定义有效客群。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>根据上车总价,挖掘新增就业中满足月供收入的人群数量。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">假设新房套均总价*0.6为刚需的上车总价,根据上车总价算换算月供,以家庭为单位换算人均月供,再按照人均月供占收入的比例换算成收入要求,便可以挖掘满足月供收入的人群。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 11px;">图3:近五年(2018-2022年)10大城市有效客群比例及收入要求</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="528" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="551" data-ratio="1.0433333333333332" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjUmZn5oM7FsbjJTebkTyQfZicmlzSduclE09XnDz7TPQ059ARGKF3q6RA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="width: 528px;height: 551px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">整体来看:</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">有效客群占比与城市经济发展水平成反比</span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">上海、深圳、北京</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">同属收入要求第一梯队,月薪20k才能摸到上车门槛。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其中,上海经济实力最为强劲,平均薪资稳居全国首位,但<strong>高房价</strong>与<strong>高消费水平</strong>导致近五年有效客群占比最低;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">广州与苏州、南京、杭州相近</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,收入要求同属第二梯队,月薪达到10k即可上车;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">武汉、青岛、成都</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">套均总价较低</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,即每10个打工人就有6-8个能买得起房,这是全市的情况,会受到地域面积的影响,比如武汉100万就能上车汉南、新洲的区域。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">分城市看:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>北京、上海有效客群大幅扩容,广州门槛最低、深圳最高</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图4:近五年(2018-2022年)四大城市有效客群比例变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="518" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="333" data-ratio="0.6416758544652701" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjUywTjPVibjzwh0ibOfCSUS4n0wwYXmqnxK9icKqwnMjM4Wcys8u2qBGgPw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="907" style="width: 519px;height: 333px;" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">整体趋势看,一线城市的有效客群占比均有不同程度地增加,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">近5年平均提高了11.7%,一线城市商品房从服务“极少数人”到服务“少数人”</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当前节点看,2022年有效客群比例达到了</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">20.3%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,当然有个不可忽视的因素是总容量也变小了,工作岗位数大幅缩减。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">分城市看,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>广州</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">客群占比占比高及波动大的特征,每10个广州打工人就有3-4个买得起房,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北京、上海</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">的变化幅度大于广州、深圳,有效客群范围分别提升了</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>15.7%、14.1%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这或许也是环北京变冷的一个核心原因,有效客群从8%提升至24%,意味着只要收入水平达到前24%就可以置业北京了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">不用被迫选择环北京,人群范围可以理解为从部门总监扩展到了部门经理。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">城市竞争进入存量博弈主导,在不考虑增量情形下,我们可以得出</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">每个城市还有多少上班族买得起+需要住房</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">用</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">城市就业人口总量*有效客群比例*(1-家庭住房拥用率)</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,识别当前</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 18px;">城市有效客群到底还有多少?</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表1:各城市就业及有效客群容量</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="524" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="182" data-ratio="0.3472222222222222" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjU25tP62SaZwT27Sicq8zJSuical7v59WVnSUsq0YRvR87EPfn8iauGrGLw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 524px;height: 182px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">得出</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>成都、广州、武汉</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">超过200万上班族还需要购置商品房,位居第1-3名;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">北京、上海、南京低于100万人,位居后3名,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北上的主要原因是大部分买不起,南京的原因是住房拥有率较高</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>除了规模,结构也很重要。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">03&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 24px;"><strong>有效客群结构如何?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 16px;"><strong>从买得起房可以延伸到买得起什么样的房。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">刚才我们假设新房<strong>套均总价*0.6</strong>为<strong>刚需</strong>的上车总价,接下来提高收入门槛:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">满足一手房<strong>套均总价*1.0</strong>收入的人群定义为潜在的<strong>首改</strong>客群;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">满足一手房<strong>套均总价*1.5</strong>收入的人群定义为潜在的<strong>再改</strong>客群;</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">看看不同城市近五年客群结构的变化,以深圳为例:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图5:深圳近5年(2018-2022年)客群结构变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="541" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="322" data-ratio="0.5957696827262045" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjUmfw6ia1LPmdLTxkxbN8iclYvhTh1Q3sJ3UFnV28qvljSFd25n7XRnWvw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="851" style="width: 541px;height: 322px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">简单来说,就是在深圳买得起房的人群里,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">以刚需为主流,占比超七成,但2022年开始能买得起首改的潜在客户更多了</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,首改从12.9%提升至23.4%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以需要分2步看,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">第一是定义主流(占比高),第二是演变趋势(变化大)。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">先看<strong>主流客群</strong>,从收入需求端结构基本还是刚需:首改:再改</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">(7:2:1)</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">的状态,用均值倍数可以洞察出城市的一些差异:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">表2:各城市主流客群收入需求端结构对比&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="316" data-ratio="0.5805207328833173" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjUxJYtVGMKhr9F7upzicnwibUs2oAPls8Ao0Zjjh7qHdl1eHoiblFZcjrgQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1037" style="width: 546px;height: 317px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以发现:</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">深圳的刚需化属性最强,武汉、青岛、成都以改善化主导。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接下来以改善化需求为例,看看十座城市的5年客群结构变化:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图6:10城近5年(2018-2022年)改善需求比例变化</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="271" data-ratio="0.49537037037037035" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjUzEpH2XZhIEjKIkWibuODibbruUukexWXlml4OYY7NzHFhE50dcvKpz0A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 271px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以看到需求端,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">整体改善化趋势明显</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其中</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>青岛、苏州</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">比例提高最大,分别为28.8%、18.4%,深圳、成都紧随其后;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">杭州、北京相对稳定,这两个城市改善属性较强的原因,或许是基数较高,5年前已经呈现出价格的全面改善化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">综合来看,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>刚需仍是主流(以深圳为典型),但正加速演变,趋向改善化(成都、武汉、青岛表现突出)</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>除了客群需求,还需要看供给情况。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">04&nbsp;</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;">城市到底还能不能干?</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上面,我们分析了有效客群总容量,我们结合供给一起对比,就可以</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从存量视角看房地产还能干几年</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图7:<span style="font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgb(136, 136, 136);">近五年(2018-2022年)商品住宅供应情况</span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="524" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="547" data-ratio="1.0436590436590436" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjU4RxsQT6Mic0qOOYJ555GIFic8TSHarvrS9u4Oydn1TVCFY8MVR4RKeGw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="481" style="width: 524px;height: 547px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">直观地对比,可以发现:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">武汉</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">商品住宅供应87万套占比16.4%,其次为杭州72万套占比13.6%,青岛68万套占比12.9%;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">一线城市来看:</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">广州(50万套)&gt;上海(39万套)&gt;深圳(34万套)&gt;</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北京(33万套)</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,没想到北京这么少,估计是大部分转化为共有产权了。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们用</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>有效客群容量需求套数(按户均1.5劳动力测算)/过年5年平均供给套数,</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">得出不同城市存量需求可开发年份:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">表3:10城存量需求可开发年份</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="276" data-ratio="0.505586592178771" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxnk7tMj08ujB1lAy5xvkjUcWK9ibibAX1OJDpTZB4hex1zqYEXeDuYlzP452rL3O9qgzp628fdOSXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1074" style="width: 546px;height: 276px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在供给稳定的情形下,存量需求可开发年份情况:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">成都、广州、深圳、苏州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">的房地产市场仍有10年以上的开发周期;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">南京、上海、杭州、北京</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">等城市可开发年份不足,需要动态关注</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">供给的变化及需求的增长</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以杭州为例:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">若</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>未来供给</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">从5年均值14.4万套下降至2022年的10.9万套,那可开发年份可提升至</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">9.7年</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2022年城市</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">新增人口</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">17.2万,按城市户均人口2.36测算,当年新增</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">7.28万套</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">住房需求,即2022年供给量的66.8%。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这就是我们常说的动态路标,没人可以准确预判未来,但可以</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">动态观测潜在的风险或机会</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,提前预判、做出决策。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>情形1:</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">假设杭州</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">市场回暖,土地放量</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,供给上升至15-20万套/年的水平,而人口增长进入停滞(准确地定义应该是本文分析的有效客群中高收入人群的数量变化),那就是</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">多维共振,存在系统性风险</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">情形2:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">假设杭州</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>市场低迷,土地缩量</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,供给维持在10万套/年的水平,而人口增长保持稳定,那看似风险的市场,依然不太可能出现系统性风险,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">因为市场比较的是供给相对值的变化</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">......</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">最后,再次回顾下本文的内容及观点:</span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1.面对居民缩表,核心要关注的指标是城市</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">新增就业情况</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">就业收入是根源</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.大城市高房价背景下,核心是要测算不同房价下</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">有效客群的容量</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">有需求才是核心</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.改善化潮流下,需要关注不同城市不同周期的</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">主流客群及结构演变差异</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">竞争的本质是结构的预判</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.存量博弈情形下,</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">成都、广州、深圳、苏州</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">的房地产市场仍有</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">10年以上</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">的开发周期;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">5.动态增量情形下,需关注</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">新增供给、有效客群</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">两者的</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">变化速率</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,提前预判、做出决策。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 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255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247501240&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9be78e8d6cf412ee6d8fc8a3b50a7725&amp;chksm=9756bf9ca021368affa8145323b472c8db160804658f95227e66f4e02813a30ef3bfc0628d97&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="城市价值评估" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城市价值评估</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247502221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=482a963668925980a37994a5ed71ca78&amp;chksm=9756b3a9a0213abf8fc9fe023e2b736039dcb4ffd07ca723b45b4a47d6b304c5b7bf948ad4d7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="板块价值识别" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">板块价值识别</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503141&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f92488f297ea1b4b74c946428905d367&amp;chksm=9756b701a0213e17bf323cb91417bf821f9d21aa7306c8aff37dc8f477a3557f69905dec9d68&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="人群特征洞察" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" 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href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504018&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=269c9d6c2e6915926a4cc240d7ac8dcf&amp;chksm=9756aab6a02123a00b15021f1aa6bcafc9cc1fbb4b049afd92368f33044b67dc22614f96d0a8&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="价值预判模型" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">价值预判模型</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504155&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a312d239ffb7fd2e75a2005d48f8f1a&amp;chksm=9756ab3fa0212229e07cc62ecb672bcaeac96c08614f73cc0fd16d7de8c4be0785036e6a7156&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="关于“钱”的理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关于“钱”的理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504650&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7dcec8c3ae6ff1208d1350dcd2d544b2&amp;chksm=9756a92ea0212038826a76d5cca153a8d84c42e9d3fdd75a2dcb6278fc34738ecf85e804b614&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="地产调控理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: 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!important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247506565&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ab5b81dce66d0311601566e02d9da8ed&amp;chksm=9756a0a1a02129b772e74e36cd5e863c10268b103bf5013bb979da46f8b9ec0c6087ae0712e2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="地产淘汰赛" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">地产淘汰赛</a>&nbsp;|<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247506863&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58074f66295ca91c36619c122db94caf&amp;chksm=9756a18ba021289dcc7b21ef86b0087cbb4cdb78b9c5140fb47cda8056df098f3b1b3a22a4f0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="客户细分第三维度" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">客户细分第三维度</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507155&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=5a6f90919ebe80b9f842386743803dc8&amp;chksm=9756a6f7a0212fe1870773f28512ec30ab372668fa08d6d637e59dd865cb9d522971dcebcb78&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="城研框架" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城研框架</a>&nbsp;|</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507390&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b6f31ef51d82452033cf5c1fbeff299f&amp;chksm=9756a79aa0212e8c3168d9eb36a129b8febf5100bc5ac924d51cb9078a8fd9236ab6af9df2cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="钱去哪了" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">钱去哪了</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507526&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4c8ecf033bb9f0b25fc4b25908fe5cdb&amp;chksm=9756a462a0212d746cd15897bc6508ee666d5b07777215cba622358b16bb66b242df32d1544a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="大湾区2022" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">大湾区2022</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507570&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0307248409811ab6679c85284c6baa21&amp;chksm=9756a456a0212d407263136b6c0a272a5263c09361b329d935f0daee75217bd14497b9c2d256&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="产品逻辑" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">产品逻辑</a>&nbsp;|</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507694&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=29ba02de26847fdf996203fec3f33b15&amp;chksm=9756a4caa0212ddcedaa35ba4ec6a59fa095ffb2c6d8a4f6357507e4b3f01d5826326e01d9ff&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="永康房价上涨逻辑" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房价上涨逻辑</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247508509&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=400be1390222aa11fb0b283ec2766ef3&amp;chksm=9756d839a021512fd6876832b270aba309f7235f48564c6a93d573caf8f960e306c091d7ec39&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="深沪差别" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" 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!important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="18" data-backh="18" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="47" data-backw="47" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 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&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 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