房地产去库存需1.4万亿资金，正反馈循环破局

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">这是高盛2025年8月21日发布的《中国房地产：如何推动中国房地产去库存？（三）：关键是形成正反馈循环》研究报告的主要内容摘要：</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心论点：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;在持续通缩压力和需求疲软的背景下，推动中国房地产去库存并使其不再拖累GDP增长的关键在于</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">在需求侧刺激的同时，增加一二线城市的住房供应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，从而形成一个</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">正反馈循环</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。该循环旨在通过供应侧投资拉动上游产业（如建材、建筑），提振整体经济，进而创造更多需求以消化新增供应。</span></span></span></span></p><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="PiSFXssL-J" data-dir-key="PiSFXssL-J"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" mpa-font-style="mfdbag8cm88" style="font-size: 20px;" data-mpa-action-id="mfdbag8sj1b" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span textstyle="" style="color: #d6a841;font-weight: bold;">关键分析与发现</span></span></span></span></span></h2><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">历史借鉴（90年代末上海案例）：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">90年代末面对外部冲击（亚洲金融危机），中国通过住房市场化改革（取消福利分房、激励开发商融资、放开土地出让等）刺激了供应侧繁荣，但也导致了全国</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">性库存积压（1998年未售库存约2亿平米）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上海通过</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">针对性刺激政策</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（特别是为期5年的个人所得税退税计划，估算退税总额90-160亿人民币，占当地房产销售额2%-4%），辅以降低契税、开发商税收优惠等措施，成功</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">在1998-2003年间消化了库存（未售库存减半，去化周期从17个月降至3个月）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">这触发了</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">正反馈循环</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：房价恢复增长（期间上涨超40%），市场显著扩大（2003年交易额/量达1997年的2.5倍/4.5倍），土地出让和非税财政收入强劲增长（CA</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">GR超30%），房地产投资成为关键增长引擎（贡献固定资产投资扩张的45%和GDP增长的9%），其效益远超政策实施成本。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">当前供应潜力（Headroom）：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基于发达国家经验（城镇住房存量/城镇家庭数≈1.1-1.15倍）和中国一二线城市长期住房供应比分析，报告认为中国一二线城市</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">仍有巨大空间建设更多住房</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估算需在</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一二线城市新增建设约35亿平方米（GFA）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，这相当于其2025年预测新开工面积的14倍，全国预测的6倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">对应的</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">建设投资（FAI）空间约为25万亿人民币</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（相当于2025年预测值的5倍），</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">土地购置投资空间约为48万亿人民币</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，总计</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房地产总投资（FAI）空间约为73万亿人民币</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（相当于2025年预测值的9倍）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><em><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">注：此估算尚未考虑老旧住房拆迁带来的额外需求（预计一二线城市年拆70-80百万平米）。</span></span></em></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">对GDP的影响与所需投资规模（情景分析）：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">情景1（中性影响）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;房地产行业对GDP增长的拖累基本消除（需2026年房地产建设FAI同比降幅收窄至-5%~0%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">情景2（温和利好）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;房地产行业对GDP增长有轻微正贡献（需2026年房地产建设FAI同比增长0%~+5%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">为实现情景1/2：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新开工面积</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需从基准预测的4.78亿平米提升至9.04亿/11.02亿平米（增长89%/131%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">建设投资（FAI）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;需比基准预测高出11%/17%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">即便如此，情景1/2所需的新开工面积和建设投资仅占前述总供应潜力（Headroom）的约20-30%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告认为此增长幅度（使市场活动温和回升至2022-23年水平）在历史背景下看并非过高要求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发商所需资金支持：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">在情景1/2下，2026年额外的建设投资和土地购置成本可能导致开发商</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">资金缺口扩大至4.2万亿/5.7万亿人民币</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（假设无增量资金支持和合同销售增长）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">若此资金需求完全通过债务融资满足，行业杠杆率将显著恶化。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键资金支持领域：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">加速低线城市去库存。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">为情景1/2下在一二线城市增加供应所需的额外资本支出（1.4万亿/2.8万亿人民币）提供流动性支持。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">支持方式建议：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">拓宽现有融资渠道：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;放宽“白名单”项目资格（截至2025年1月贷款总额5.6万亿）、鼓励银行放宽开发贷条件并加快审批、允许地方政府专项债用于房地产开发、加速扩大</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">PSL（抵押补充贷款）使用、利用ABS（资产支持证券）等。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">探索创新流动性注入形式：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;如资产管理公司（AMC）平台与开发商成立合资企业。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">提振需求加速现金流入：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;需求侧刺激（见下文）可缩短建设支出与销售回款的时间差，缓解开发商流动性压力。在理想情况下（新增可售资源90%去化率+90%当年现金回收率），</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">情景1/2下仅需最多1.1万亿人民币的资金支持即可维持开发商资金缺口不变。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="5"><li><span data-marker="5."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">提振需求的关键：改善支付能力与信心</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">在情景1/2下，若销售预测不变，一二线城市的库存月数将激增至约30/40个月（基准预测为13个月）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">为维持库存月数在基准水平，2026年需在情景1/2下</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">额外销售约2.1亿/3.1亿平米</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（比基准全国预测高25%/37%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要障碍：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;一二线城市（尤其非户籍人口）受限于购房限制和低支付能力（如一线城市房价收入比超20倍，高于全球门户城市中值水平）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">所需购房补贴估算：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">方法一（基于房价与公允价值差距）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;约0.2万亿至0.6万亿人民币（取决于房贷宽松程度）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">方法二（对标全球合理房价收入比）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;约0.6万亿至1.0万亿人民币（假设一线/二线合理房价收入比为16倍/10倍）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">家庭加杠杆空间：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;分析显示中国家庭仍有较大净增房贷空间（约20万亿人民币），可支持约65万亿新房销售。即使在情景1/2下无补贴，家庭杠杆率和偿债率预计仅温和上</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">升，压力仍可控。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">其他需求侧政策建议：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;进一步放宽房贷政策（利率、期限、首付比例）、一线城市取消限购。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="6"><li><span data-marker="6."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">对开发商的影响：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">受益方：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;向一二线市场注入流动性将</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">最利好那些在一二线城市拥有土地储备但因资金限制未能开工的开发商</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。报告覆盖范围内，</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">龙湖集团</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">被认为受益最大（一二线土储占比67%高于行业平均，但为降杠杆大幅放缓建设支出）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;在需求提振之前增加供应可能导致</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">供应侧竞争加剧、价格疲软，从而延迟开发商利润率恢复</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。分析师注意到2025年前7个月，跟踪的6家开发商95%的土地投资集中于一二线城市，若资本持续集中可能推高地价溢价，压缩利润空间。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="7"><li><span data-marker="7."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">最新市场动态（截至2025年7月）：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房价重现弱势：70城新房/二手房价格环比下跌加剧（尤其二线及以下），一线城市二手房价格环比跌幅扩大至2024年10月以来最大（3个月滚动基础）</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，除深圳外一线城市7月房价均下跌。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成交量疲软：8月至今监测约75城新房销量环比-15%，同比-17%；约20城二手房销量环比-4%，同比持平。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">情绪低迷：中介和购房者情绪指数及新房搜索热度指数普遍回落至2024年9月宽松政策前水平。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="fE5lTXfLbA" data-dir-key="fE5lTXfLbA"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="font-size: 20px;"><span textstyle="" style="color: #d6a841;font-weight: bold;">结论与核心建议</span></span></span></span></span></h2><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告的核心策略是</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">通过在一二线城市“提前建设”来刺激经济，并结合强有力的需求侧刺激（补贴、房贷放松、限购取消），最终形成“供应拉动需求，需求消化供应”的正反馈循</span></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">环</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，从而解决库存问题并减轻房地产对宏观经济的拖累。报告量化了所需的供应规模、资金支持力度和需求刺激措施，并分析了其对开发商的影响和市场最新状况。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>