房地产又到了关注周期的时候 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2020年11月06日 15时58分

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="paragraph"><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">今天，我们来讲一下周期这个话题。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">对于周期，有很多人很感兴趣，也有比较多地分歧和争议。有的人认为周期研究是没有作用的，所有的事情都没有办法被预测，也没有办法找到它的规律；还有一部分人认为研究周期是有必要的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在房地产行业里面，持后者态度的人比较多，因为房地产行业是一个周期性比较强的行业。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">当然即便在认可周期价值的人里也有一些区别。有些人会希望直接拿到标准答案，将周期预测当做是一个选择题；有些人认为周期预测的研究意义在于会提供一些参考的路径和问题的标准。事实上，它是一个论述题。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">根据多年的研究，</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>我们还是认为整个周期的研究是有价值的，尤其是体量越大的经济体，它的周期特征会越明显。</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这个跟物理里面所说的体积越大，质量越大，惯性越强是一个道理。从某种意义上来说，周期是惯性的一种表现。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">房地产市场是一个十多万亿的市场，总的来说周期特征还是比较明显的。但是又因为其是个很大的市场，要做到绝对匹配和准确还是挺困难的。而且整个地域特点还不一样，全国的特征并不代表某个地方的特征，某个地方的特征并不代表某个项目的特征。即便某个项目的特征，也不代表某个产品的特征。所以谈论房地产的周期问题还是比较难的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我们去理解周期更多的是去找到一个让你成功概率更好的一个时间区间在哪里？一个空间范围在哪里？</span></strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">下面我们进入正题。</span></strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><br /></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 10px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="text-decoration: none;font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">PART 1</span></strong></span></section><section style="width:8px;"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(83, 165, 151);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section style="width:8px;transform: scaleX(-1);-webkit-transform: scaleX(-1);-moz-transform: scaleX(-1);-ms-transform: scaleX(-1);-o-transform: scaleX(-1);"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(101, 188, 173);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 8px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 1em;padding-left: 1em;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="text-decoration: none;font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;text-decoration: none;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">房地产周期内涵及研究目的</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">一</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(175, 175, 175);border-top-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);border-left-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);border-right-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">为什么要研究房地产周期？</span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">首先，为什么要研究房地产周期？我们是坚定相信周期的价值的。</span><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2lodYicCKwHDC4XwEqDdibRGjlT638QAKVqZWiaQqxZvdic9xnIUfSQGr5w/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="1" height="254" style="text-align: center;width: auto;background-position: center center;background-size: initial;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221);" width="358" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="254" data-backw="358" data-ratio="0.7094972067039106" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2B5KpdEULVAN5hAmVicoXMPcOSia9tvb8CXZr4dFlo00tgmpVgt60bkhw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="358" style="width: 507px;height: 360px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">1.如雅鲁藏布江大拐弯告诉我们河流在某个地方可能会掉头，这种<strong>短期变化不会影响长期趋势</strong>。雅鲁藏布江的水还是会穿过整个中国流入印度洋中。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="263" data-backw="420" data-ratio="0.6261904761904762" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2tpgvo9fqia5dfBToEsXXyT4yh9XjUGI6P9ebjyHeuN4lmTPdzQkUW7A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="420" style="width: 505px;height: 316px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">2.如果我们认为周期研究是有效的话，</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>不同的周期阶段是有不同的资产配置策略</strong>，</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">如果能够配置得当，有助于你得到更好的内容，让你整个资产的投资回报效率更快。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="275" data-backw="409" data-ratio="0.6723716381418093" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2q74kIuDGukoOHBVOus4qyKwBVS4icR25oxR7jYVAvIqBhuwdsTwSYhg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="409" style="width: 537px;height: 361px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">3.人是一个比较短视的动物，当一群人聚集在一起，容易造成错误的判断，尤其是当他是一个群体，例如这个公司，那么更加会呈现出一种<strong>集体误判</strong>。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我们要意识到市场数据其实是一个结果，市场数据变好并不意味着后面会变好，这是一个结果而不是原因，市场数据变差也不应该预示着未来会变差。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在图上面我们就可以看出，在低谷，实际上可以抄底的时候，都是大家觉得悲观的时候；反而在高位的时候，大家并没意识到危险在接近。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">如果能从数据出发的角度客观的去讲周期，相信这更有助于大家去做判断，尤其是集体的判断。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">所以对企业而言，研究地产周期有几个比较显而易见的好处。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">二</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">对企业而言，研究房地产周期的核心目的？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">1.把握未来可能的经济走势，由此，<strong>判断行业的走势。</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">2.在不同周期里你的<strong>投资标和投资模式</strong>是不一样的。整个房地产的周期比较长，可以选择去做十五年的住宅开发。但到了今天这么一个转折点，如果你未来还想再开四五年公司，住宅的高周转开发可能不再是一个唯一的或者说不是最有效、最高效的方式，当然也就不是一个风险最低的方式。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">那么你应该怎么样去投资模式跟公司经营的主营业务，这个可能需要提前去预判。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">3.能帮助你<strong>捕捉到一些机会</strong>。在市场疯狂的时候，他没有因为这个集体的狂欢盲目跟进，在市场非常低迷的时候，他敢于出手去做大笔的投资。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">其实这些也是周期带来的三大好处。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 10px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">PART 2</span></strong></span></section><section style="width:8px;"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(83, 165, 151);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section style="width:8px;transform: scaleX(-1);-webkit-transform: scaleX(-1);-moz-transform: scaleX(-1);-ms-transform: scaleX(-1);-o-transform: scaleX(-1);"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(101, 188, 173);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 8px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 1em;padding-left: 1em;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">房地产周期理论</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">研究概述</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">一</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">理论研究能否预测未来？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>1.预测工具是否合理。</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">因为周期本身是一项预测的工作，所以会发现它有很多的工具跟方法可以去预测。当然合不合理，其实跟怎么去使用它是有关系的，就像前面所说，它有个固定的结论，但是可以给予一些路标提示。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>2.</strong><strong>预测假设是否成立。</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>3.</strong><strong>预测数据是否准确。</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>4.</strong><strong>预测者本身是否能抗干扰。</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这一点尤其重要。因为很多企业也有专门的部门在做预测，但是往往都很容易受制于自己的成功经验，然后做出一些相对不是特别客观的判断。所以预测者本身想要抗干扰非常的难。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>5.</strong><strong>接受预测其实也是门艺术。</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">二</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">周期的本质是什么？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="188" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3399638336347197" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2CodedZYWa47JbJmibdB6eypOYhffZLuPxMkqZtXoFuTiaZ8Z0Mt6R1jw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 565px;height: 192px;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;">周期的本质实际上说是在一个被框定的时间范围内，而事实上</span><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;">财富整体来讲是守恒</strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;">的，人类财富的变化主要是来自于技术革新，还有生活爆炸。技术革新和人口爆炸其实都是一个比较长的周期，所以从根源上来讲，人类社会的财富是一个阶梯式的跃升式的增长，而不是线性的增长。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">每两个阶梯之间的阶段里面，整个周期的本质实际上是财富分配的本质，所以就会<strong>包括繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏</strong>4个阶段。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">除了这4个阶段的划分方式外，还有人把它划分成为短周期、中周期和长周期，短周期基本上就是一个库存周期，中周期是个工业指标的市场周期，长周期基本上是一代人的一个周期，也就是大家经常讲的传播周期。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">具体到房地产表现里面，这4个周期呈现出来的特点是怎么样的？</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">三</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">房地产的周期表现是什么？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="356" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.64376130198915" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2kDhNykX47y9L3BuBBePhibpJzakAMjBk1IZFpKk5MRWkwW8xbSffPeg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 568px;height: 366px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">虽然整个房地产行业在持续增长，但它是波动的。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">那么现在来看一下萧条时期的特点，房地产价格持续下跌，成交量锐减，房地产企业破产的现象比较显著。对比现在，我们发现现在有些地方的房地产价格刚刚下跌，成交量也是在不同地方有所分化，会爆出一些所谓的企业资金紧张的问题，但都还没到萧条的阶段。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">往后倒推，我们有可能是处于<strong>衰退</strong>的阶段。自用型购房者挤出市场，价格使一般居民无力承担，市场预期悲观，房地产的空置率开始上升。现在在这些年新城近郊以及价格快速上涨的一些城市，都比较明显的呈现出这样的特征。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">实际上在<strong>萧条</strong>期过后，你会发现房地产业在<strong>复苏</strong>了，比如说北上广。这里核心问题是：在这个阶段，供应大于需求，不是因为供应太多，而是因为需求太少。实际上它在等待需求的迸发，需求如果没有迸发的话，市场也很难说出现比较火爆的上升，很难转入繁荣期。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这个时候可以发现它的几个特点，整体来讲，可选择房屋比较多，然后价格在经过衰退跟萧条的两个周期的下跌期间后，变得比较合理。这个时候很多自住型的客户会开始进入市场，但因为他们基本上是一种跟风型的客户，没有太多的先见之明，所以他们也是分批进场。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这个时候整个市场呈现出来的交易量还是比较低的，但市场信心可以开始恢复，楼价可能就开始止跌，有些好地段的产品、高品质的产品可能会首先开始回升，这是复苏的阶段。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">复苏阶段的下一步就是逐渐进入<strong>繁荣</strong>阶段。繁荣阶段是因为随着客户的信心恢复逐渐进场，但是开发商的信心恢复是要比购房者的速度慢一些，所以会发现这个时期需求在逐步增长，但供给没有增长，库存在下降，慢慢的就变成了供不应求。成交量开始激增，因为一旦供不应求，市场的紧迫情绪就会出现，很多项目也会去做一些调价的处理，由此大家又开始乐观起来，泡沫又开始膨胀，经过这一段之后，房价恢复了上涨，接下来要进入衰退。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">四</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">典型房地产周期波动案例1</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="242" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.4368231046931408" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2KYTLG9JUAYEtXoia4FuZ04BYLsazHB6c2fpKqs1oMlFD2U8QZaqEAGA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 533px;height: 233px;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;">美国</strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;">在1910年到1923年，经济欣欣向荣，享乐主义兴起，开始建立现代的制度，基本上就跟2000年之后中国开始让大家贷款买房的状态差不多。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在这个时期，有很多一线城市开始出现第一轮的房地产泡沫，因为很多人从内陆区域移民到一线城市，催生大量的需求。之后就会出现房价暴跌，股市暴跌，进入经济危机。这基本上跟我国2003年到2009年这一波是差不多的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">2003年到2007是一波复苏到繁荣，然后由于次贷危机的冲击，2008年到2009年开始下跌。房价跌、股市跌，经济出现问题开始衰退，然后进入萧条。萧条期一直持续到2014年，又开始进入复苏的阶段，复苏完之后到2017年，2018年开始又进入了繁荣阶段。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">实际上我们现在是在一个衰退的周期里面，但是房价还没有开始跌。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">五</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">典型房地产周期波动案例2</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="231" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4177215189873418" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2nYePXCG2NQYRDYCKBtfPUv3z2NiaF6IusQ5naSjKE2ygIcrqVVfNOpQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 562px;height: 235px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">日本</strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">差不多也是一样的情况，它面临的问题其实跟我们现在差不多，货币比较宽松，继续放贷款，国际热钱涌入，然后出现一个比较明显的股市泡沫，股市泡沫破裂之后，房地产泡沫就轰然倒塌了。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我国接下来可能会出现这样的情况。和日本1980年到1986年挺像的，我国现在的整个经济是空前的繁荣，人民币最近也在升值。目前我国国际热钱开始涌入，这是一个比较明显的趋势。这个状态出现之后，会出现很多泡沫化。如果要等到政府意识到的时候，才迟迟开始来做紧缩的货币政策，反而会把这个问题变得更加的严重。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">相信我国很多优秀的政策研究的人，肯定都研究过日本的情况，所以我相信我们国家可能不会走这样的路。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">如果对比日本来看的话，我们目前大概处于日本1986年到1991年的阶段，所以接下来整个房地产和股市的泡沫还是会比较显着的出现。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">六</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">典型房地产周期波动案例3</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="225" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.40613718411552346" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2cnJXib89o9wPJkUGyEh78or1XODX1gRJR9Zj3yLbx7bYYPKibnQhMmmA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 554px;height: 225px;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-align: justify;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">现在中国整个互联网经济依然还是一个比较旺盛的阶段，整个利率比较低，银行积极发放贷款。国家非常积极的发放贷款，短融长投堆积风险，房屋空置率提高，之后利率上调。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">总结几个状态会发现，一定是降息带来的泡沫化，因为加息刺破了泡沫，最后演变成了债务危机。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我们用这些案例去研究周期，会发现是两个周期的叠加。一个是我们要进入一个金融大发展的阶段，所以可能会有一个像日本那样的周期，股市会泡沫化。当然我们还进入了一个像美国的普惠金融大发展的阶段，它也有可能会带来泡沫化。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这两个东西的催化剂是低利率，如果这个时候降息，大家认为是不太可能的。现在人民银行、央行那边做了一些定向利息的控制，不是像原来一样普遍去减息，而是有目的性的去降息，可能这也是一个解决问题的方式。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">七</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">总结：房地产周期的影响因素？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="316" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.5714285714285714" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2wbIc9KBV5gsSZxz2x2FNTEhjvrz3ffuqDGvtYKmyH0icPYqUvwX8PMg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 534px;height: 305px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">房地产实际上是一个周期之母。十次危机，九次都是房地产</strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">。</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">因为它影响到整个经济增长，城镇化、居民收入等。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">大家可以看一下整个周期变化的情况，比如说在萧条期的时候，政府会倾向于低利率，货币宽松，这个时候的需求就增加了，然后市场开始繁荣，金融自由化。到了一个高峰的时候，基本上所有的需求都以投资需求为主导，它是一个虚假的需求。这个时候会出现很明显的流动性过剩，然后大量货币追逐少量商品，通货膨胀也会出现。这时央行可能会去做一些货币紧缩的处理，需求就开始减少。再之后开始进入萧条，银行放贷失控。这就是整个周期的一个过程。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">现在中国正处于衰退的前段，一旦进入下端的话就是一个萧条的状态。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 10px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">PART 3</span></strong></span></section><section style="width:8px;"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(83, 165, 151);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section style="width:8px;transform: scaleX(-1);-webkit-transform: scaleX(-1);-moz-transform: scaleX(-1);-ms-transform: scaleX(-1);-o-transform: scaleX(-1);"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(101, 188, 173);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 8px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 1em;padding-left: 1em;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" hm_fix="304:280"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">房地产周期研究方法</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">及指标</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">一</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">分析框架</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="283" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.5117540687160941" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2DTdPbLqHhBzzruQV6gmwVpDfmTzNbc0Yv3aIibBYl2lM0ATlLPIWeCQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 548px;height: 280px;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;">短期看金融，中期看经济，长期看人口。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">二</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">选择哪些指标来剖析房地产长周期？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;"><strong>1.</strong><strong>人口指标。</strong></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="233" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4213381555153707" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2kz1ADpAC4ZGg0mH5A8rrYao10lcrjkG9iaKlibaicVywG3Uz92tqQERUw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 562px;height: 237px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>增长型</strong>的国家，房价保持了持续的上涨动力。比如外来人口不断的涌入。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">中国的地域特点差别很大。例如，东北已经进入了老龄化，长三角也正在进入老龄化，但珠三角还是比较年轻的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>2.</strong><strong>城镇化指标。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>按城镇化规模速度</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="314" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.5667870036101083" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2O7mHTx6jlkUB2pfxqgw39wgcBOiaOzqPTksRFNE69evuIz4rQIIYsKA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">怎么样去看空间上的一个可能性。这里面会看到城镇化分成三个阶段，<strong>起步阶段</strong><strong>10%</strong><strong>以下；发展阶段加速阶段基本30%~70%</strong><strong>；后期阶段为70%</strong><strong>以上</strong>。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">中国目前大概可能在60%的阶段。从总体素质来讲，城镇化的动力还在，只是增长速度会变慢，行业最快发展的时期正在过去。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>按人口流动的主导方向</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="346" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6245487364620939" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2avwVztzvbF7O3B7hNDxr29sfCwias5Wrm16sm6rRHEK4oHKqstVUFicA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">人口流动的方向，可以划分为几个阶段：<strong>第一阶段是从农村进入城市；第二阶段是从小城市进入大城市；第三个阶段是大城市郊区化</strong>，这一阶段是郊区的城市化形成大都市圈。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">目前一些比较偏远、落后的省，其实还在上演着农村进入城市。在很多发达省份，可以看到人口正在从小城市向省会中心城市跟经济中心城市聚集。而一线城市，很明显的大城市的郊区化，郊区开始发展起来。至于像北京上海这样的地方，郊区发展的很好，配套各方面都已经起来了，实际上是在进入了大都市圈的一个阶段了。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>3</strong><strong>、城镇化的指标的细节。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="168" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.30324909747292417" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2cguWpLiaCrtAv326yTAD2Y8yhticfq1xG3bfBbMBwYo5jmIlJAD1yNibg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>人口城镇化率</strong>：不同的城市发展阶段，会引起不同的人口流动方向及趋势。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>各产业就业人口比例</strong>：就业结构的城市化引起劳动力向城市迁移，导致人口结构的城市化。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>土地城镇化率</strong>：通常指建成区面积，即城市成熟功能生活及工业区的地域面积。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">三</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">选择哪些指标来剖析房地产中周期？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="368" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6642599277978339" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb23zoraXzWZJLuWCQWfjdn04U5DJ6HZAjhtgokzX4Fo5nH97CnEicvXpQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2lodYicCKwHDC4XwEqDdibRGjlT638QAKVqZWiaQqxZvdic9xnIUfSQGr5w/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="1" height="368" width="554" style="width: auto;background-position: center center;background-size: initial;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221);" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">产业结构其实也是跟周期相关的。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>周期本质上是产业结构不断调整的一个过程</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">，对房价也会带来一些比较大的变化。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从纵向来看，一个城市顺应了当时主导产业的发展，才能有上涨的空间。在1760年之前，整个世界的主导产业都是农业砖瓦食品。如果说，这个城市是个比较好的农业城市，基本上就会发展得很好。现在大家可能觉得最重要的是金融、计算机、医药、新能源等，所以哪些城市有更多的金融计算机医药新能源的产业未来的抗衰退周期能力就会比较强。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从横向来看的话，拥有最高端产业的城市，往往是一个国家或地区的核心城市。从房价上来说，该城市的房价往往也最高。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">四</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">选择哪些指标来剖析房地产短周期？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>1.</strong><strong>经济指标。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="193" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.34900542495479203" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2z30dDkRibpFnz2PGFs4DkjRfkmEPZ1NceufIWPqSgzl36mqvCkvOG3A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>反应城市的产业现状及经济水平</strong>：产业结构、GDP、人均GDP；</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>反应城市发展趋势</strong>：投资结构；税收结构；</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>反应城市的富裕度</strong>：金融存款余额；人均可支配收入等。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>2.</strong><strong>政策指标。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.40867992766726946" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2qqHElbbOKt8q5wwFiaVzRC1cGZuLG8C99HAicJ3qxRM3rRk5rfl8Q9jw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>政策指标</strong>是通过调控资金的总量、流动性及需求的市场准入条件等措施对房价产生短期影响。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="199" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.35985533453887886" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2mJ48ZtVfStN3wJTROWstNE99auib1KcHIV9jfJiaR1eDrhZBPb9lFZ9Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">政策指标<strong>反应了货币政策，抑制需求的内容，还有限价的内容</strong>。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在资金方面，它是比较大的一个正相关，利率水平跟房价是比较相关的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从中国目前的情况来看，由于人民币升值非常快，所以我们有可能很快进入一个加息周期，而不是大家认为的利率还要下降。一旦加息的话，对房价的压力还是比较大的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">五</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">小结</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="272" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.49097472924187724" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2MmSkpquaGVEKhdbicFsMNgdfryvfDS9icpGOzwzMb2GVg3fGicD8UeEgw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 10px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">PART 4</span></strong></span></section><section style="width:8px;"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(83, 165, 151);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section style="width:8px;transform: scaleX(-1);-webkit-transform: scaleX(-1);-moz-transform: scaleX(-1);-ms-transform: scaleX(-1);-o-transform: scaleX(-1);"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(101, 188, 173);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 8px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 1em;padding-left: 1em;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">海外房地产周期研究</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">一</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">规律</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从海外的思路来看，国外成熟市场的</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>地产周期规律是18年</strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我们从2003年开始推出土地招拍挂政策，如果按照18年的周期过滤，真正结束应该是在2022年。在周期的最后4年，也就是2018年到2022年，都是下跌的。当然目前我们的感觉还不是这样，它的特点是在最后4年，前面2年缓慢下跌，后面2年剧烈下跌。从这个角度来讲，到2022年之前，还是需要警惕的，因为有可能会出现一个较大的下跌压力。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在这个情形之下，大家在投资方面还是要相对更加谨慎一些。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">二</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">美国与日本房地产周期市场特征</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="307" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.5541516245487365" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2sYLHNK4hkF2p53oUXiafQErugIYibH55mfyib8EgVGHT2JDmz9yRvxe6w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>美国</strong>房地产销售市场的金额一直处在不断式的上涨，是波段式上涨的一个状态。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.5433212996389891" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2y4TSXAls1wY34qCicdyO5MoTDmSiaV1mjUrF0AJDwTQmwJfv0vNGUziaw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>日本</strong>则是持续上涨30年，又持续低迷20年。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">大家可以看到，土地价格的上涨幅度实际上是很巨大的，甚至会超过房价的上涨幅度。特别是在最后泡沫的阶段，土地价格的上涨速度远远超过了房价的上涨速度，那么在这个时候就形成了大量的企业风险累积。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">当然，在下跌的时候，房价的下跌速度也要远远高于土地价格的下跌速度，所以抄底挺艰难。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">三</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">不同阶段的物业开发策略</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="185" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3345388788426763" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2OyCZ9HS6tqgrZoEhvsFrY1icAjKHgRyr8Bx1C7yXUKNXEib6KXEt28IA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从国际经验来看，在城镇化率30%-60%的时候，开发模式可以住宅开发为主比较合适。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">到了城镇化率70%的时候，就更适合做商业地产。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">四</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">重点城市房地产周期发展特征及市场表现</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>1.</strong><strong>纽约</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="275" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4972875226039783" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2ha2UWZ2lKEsw3e5ibfZhuibdj3Bj7qxLEzmLFUnBoWYFy0JEHoDgkdrQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="433" data-backw="480" data-ratio="0.9020833333333333" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2EaRwsxNw8ibDiaMg9rDkbMHv5apsKquV5QZzgNgPODRt3cTxkxJJ4YWw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="480" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="239" data-backw="391" data-ratio="0.6112531969309463" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2soZzDHy0FibBic4wa11bHwQaos9ZbcotLPcibJK05oRYp0OjkHiaCNjSyw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="391" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">纽约的GDP占比达到全美国的8.9%，是移民数量最多的地方。纽约最发达的是金融业跟商业服务业，最活跃的是金融创新和服务创新。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">中国的一线城市跟纽约比较一致，北京、上海、深圳未来肯定就是以金融业、商务服务业为主。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="245" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4430379746835443" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2foKsyhsktFguhJjJVXlfUfcWBLxl4PauNBKdmFNLJXGLfcLzytgWEA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这里我们也找了一些数据，从数据可以看到，纽约的<strong>人口</strong>主要集中在中心城区，而中央公园是一块绿的，完全没有人。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="261" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4719710669077758" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2ttuK0XcXwiaa9dGuc0WTEIRF4YyMdov4mQnVBLlDtmB400CPeLkXjvA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>刚需类</strong>的东西基本上是在沿着地铁轨道线出去一个小时以内。纽约的首置不是特别贵，基本上就200万到300万之间。高速公路能够覆盖到的地方会比较会贵一点。首改是40万到50万美金，大概就是300万元左右。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="260" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4701627486437613" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2nqNTF4UdFyEIocEhRNPnLNNT58AGHAKOM7uXOzva0XWs2sdzM2ibib9Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">300万到600万的再改型住宅大部分在环CBD区域。</span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">类似的区域，深圳可能在关外了，上海可能就在外环，北京可能就是五环外了。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="193" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.34900542495479203" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2PXQwFryPzDjaQXibfrW69tmMVRpH7chL5pQqEvGRvaF77OZKFDgeQtQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">纽约的<strong>中心完全都是商务化</strong>的。美国现在的房地产周期可能是在下降阶段，但是具体到纽约这个城市，你会发现其实它还是有一些开发的机会。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="296" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.5352622061482821" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2OWzrmGamYrV64HsRBLZkWB5NgOoYLWeiaBoH09TuEr632WFOzhC6MHw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">纽约整个城市的<strong>人群要高端化</strong>，<strong>一些住宅高端化要往商务化的方向发展</strong>，从这里会得到一些启示。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在一线城市里面，做住宅的话肯定得高端化。同时因为地价很高，拿地很难，那么对一些商业办公的地块研究，可能也是投资的一个很重要的思路。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">与此同时，这些客群变化也比较明显，基本上都是以中上层的客群为主。在这里，管理人员跟专业人员会变得更多，受教育程度比较高，家庭规模比较小，所以对产品会带来一些的变化。这里面影响的因素也有很多，包括了品味跟生活习惯。因为客群本身受教育程度高，从事的又是一些相对来讲比较办公类的东西，他们就会有比较多的审美类休闲类的需求。所以它最终会体现为住宅高端化。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">同时因为有很多新兴的创业类的企业，所以也会有商务化的状态。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">再细分市场，则可以分为几种：<strong>新建住宅，翻新豪宅，工作生活公寓，可支付性办公空间</strong>。翻新豪宅，里面有很多种翻新，比如说老化住宅的翻新、出租公寓的翻新、厂房仓库的翻新。这些基本上都是从豪宅的方向来讲，所以消费升级可能在住房方面会表现的比较明显。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="194" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3508137432188065" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2kwBx1OJH1vsuoEW2icU9X2cth3kXn7yzj6bhcKTFeia3Q4Deg7hoVLZg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">纽约还有个特点：<strong>整体的住房比例比较高，房价持续上涨</strong>。现在很多一线城市也呈现出这样的特征。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="182" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3291139240506329" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2BichOb4EKKwcAnIrzvTkpVhibNosynFVOwcWHaicTdCIlhvgZOQvjEjJg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从<strong>物业</strong>来看，别墅的价值比较弱，反而公寓的价格稳中有涨，周期波动会更好一些。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>2.</strong><strong>洛杉矶</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="191" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3453887884267631" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2ic9G84icDWJcTo7lAXndGiaKkrF5rrwhkas9KbCQSepVw2c0pXja8CiaOw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">洛杉矶的情况又不太一样，更多会有一些生活的内容，所以它是一个拥有<strong>多中心的、高度分散</strong>的城市空间结构。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="182" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3291139240506329" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2KlYWbJwiaFQ7Yddvqibm2sEWXzM7KpbjfnQiciaAcEcNEWiaIZxicmm6e4tg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">今年住宅市场的价格也上升比较快，别墅反而会好一点。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这里有很多家庭型的客户，别墅快速反弹后平稳增长，公寓反弹之后会有一些小幅的下滑，就这个地方出现的客群跟纽约差别是很大的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">五</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">主要研究结论</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>1.一个规律</strong>：</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">18年的周期现象，前14年房价上涨，后4年房价下跌。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">中国如果从2003年土地拍卖正式改革算起，大概2022年到2023年这个周期就会结束。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>2.</strong><strong>两种周期</strong>：</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">美国人口红利及产业升级支撑房地产长周期繁荣；日本人口老龄化及经济低迷导致长期衰退。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>3.</strong><strong>两类城市</strong>：</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">纽约为高度集中型城市，城市价值中心到城郊递减；洛杉矶为相对分散城市，城市价值中心分散。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);"><strong>4.</strong><strong>企业策略</strong>：</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">帕尔迪把握核心主流人群的需求；“波士顿”把握周期波动机会，低买高卖。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 10px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">PART 5</span></strong></span></section><section style="width:8px;"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(83, 165, 151);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section style="width:8px;transform: scaleX(-1);-webkit-transform: scaleX(-1);-moz-transform: scaleX(-1);-ms-transform: scaleX(-1);-o-transform: scaleX(-1);"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(101, 188, 173);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 8px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 1em;padding-left: 1em;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">周期研究方法论</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">一</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">为什么投资要研究周期？</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;">周期的规律有4个阶段。</span></strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-align: justify;"></span><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">经济周期<strong>长期</strong>主要是看<strong>基本面</strong>，基本面主要就是看出生率跟市场率。生产力对应是前面所讲的两个周期，出生率对应的是人口红利，生产率对应的是产业技术升级。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>短期</strong>关注的是心理情绪跟决策过程，主要跟金融利率政策相关，政府在里面会做一些逆周期的调节。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">如果你能够提前预判的话，其实对经济周期管理是比较有效的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">二</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">房地产周期产生的原因</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="183" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3309222423146474" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2NPHMrdwLnHhF1aqMyhxqF4cqWZKSOfhju5ByfhAxb9SlmrgZFxquQA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">周期产生的问题比较简单，因为<strong>地产周期的供应的弹性很低</strong>，所以，整个周期的内容都来自于供应跟需求的一个错位的特点。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="208" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.37613019891500904" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2zh2fibho7Pb6l52P0qY9Pw5FlFR73EL7cpiarSDmDD1Q1apCX0B9lxBg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">与此同时，因为有错位的特点，它自然就具备了<strong>投资品的属性</strong>。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">特别是中国期房的销售状态，本身就有期货的特征，所以会有从事做此投资的人。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">其实，不仅仅是个人投资者，房地产也是最大的投资一方，而这种做法会使价格有更大程度的剧烈波动。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="204" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3688969258589512" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2MfLI2chMuySZ2OUdOd2YH58EcpK8VLHqBAzsw1MNo06wJRhsmUIxSw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">政府实际上是在<strong>调控</strong>，希望让整个周期平稳下来。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从目前来看，美国的周期基本上是20年，日本的周期是10年，中国现在看起来差不多是10年，香港是7-8年，台湾是15年。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">目前因为政府调控，中国的周期存在变长的趋势的可能性。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="200" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.3616636528028933" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2h6LnkhuJqvo4DctImqnGNjlD90sFHUviaYwkuMpnujavhwHpHEBUFkQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;color: rgb(81, 180, 165);">房价拐点跟房价极点是很重要的问题。</span></strong><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">很多时候你会发现，从量化分析来讲，整个房地产市场的特征已经到了一个拐点的时候，但是单纯去看价格的话，它并没有马上出现下跌，也就是说房价还没有达到一个极点。所以你的量会在你的价格之前出现。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">当出现拐点的时候，整个销售的量能已经发生一些变化，价格可能还没变化，但很快也会发生变化。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">如果你能提前洞察到这一点的话，那么就可以比别人做出更快的反应，这也是研究周期的价值意义。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="104" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.18806509945750452" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2rpxPtUicy9Doh7qkNfpPjqTIl1ibFauqQhMMHNAtcfk1feaVwbIUQSPw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>拐点</strong>实际上意味着一个上升或者下降过程的结束，但并不意味着马上变成另一个样子。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="329" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.5949367088607594" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2nCFOHUlS4LETbmgcFXAslnD9EwtK7OMRrbDXXP6I9GVh3HogxCAEoA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">国际经验表明，通过分析<strong>投资增速</strong>、<strong>新开工增速</strong>、<strong>存货去化期</strong>和<strong>房价收入</strong>比四大指标，可以判断各城市住宅市场处于周期性调整的阶段。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 10px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;font-size: 18px;">PART 6</span></strong></section><section style="width:8px;"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(83, 165, 151);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(83, 165, 151);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section style="width:8px;transform: scaleX(-1);-webkit-transform: scaleX(-1);-moz-transform: scaleX(-1);-ms-transform: scaleX(-1);-o-transform: scaleX(-1);"><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 10px solid transparent;border-right: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><section style="height: 20px;background: rgb(101, 188, 173);overflow: hidden;"><br /></section><section style="height: 10px;width: 0px;border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 8px solid rgb(101, 188, 173);border-bottom: 10px solid transparent;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-bgless="spin" data-bglessp="280" style="margin-top: 8px;background: rgb(94, 180, 165);height: 30px;font-size: 16px;padding-right: 1em;padding-left: 1em;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" hm_fix="296:278"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-decoration: none;">市场面周期研究实践</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">一</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">全国量价周期与宏观货币供应量周期</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="250" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.45207956600361665" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2iaTDd7TZ9EJicOzt3TvIhwG1kC3vH7HicneiaKDl61dPtfy926T6qicq7lw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我们把全国的房价跟m1m2做了个数据对比。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">综合房价的状况可以发现，房价的变化与m1的同比变化大概有一个一年半的跨度。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">m1的低谷是在2019年3月，按照这个来看的话，整个房价的低谷应该会在2020年的下半年到2021年的上半年之间的某一个点。直接用滤波去推算的话，它会告诉你在2020年7月，拐点就产生了。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我们还做了一些需求的内容，它跟m1的同步水平比较高，同时也受到m2的相关影响。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">二</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">各城市需求量-房价周期滤波</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="269" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4864376130198915" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2H1WGeibViajFTDEJicS8YVZAeUnmasrY0B6UcL6QGtHoATepoH2sWzic8A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>北京</strong>的整个需求周期在2019年6月见底，所以最近北京的房子卖得特别好，因为它正处于一个反弹过程，这个过程会持续到2021年2月。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="269" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4864376130198915" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2xIZwVCku2YlHrecnLTRqo4DxnF3dePgdUYpr0vll8Eib8OfdFVsC3jQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>上海</strong>的周期会更加短，因为政府将幅度压的比较低。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">2019年10月，整个市场房价基本见底，很快在2020年8月，市场又开始好价格，开始持续的往上走，进入第二轮增长，需求变化比较剧烈。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="266" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4810126582278481" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb28JN6ZiaBIa8eNzVmicBYdM9hXZmc8fayVE7icFksdczEH5xpufElsmWLw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>天津</strong>现在的需求低谷基本见底，正在慢慢恢复。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">因为天津的整个房价在上一波上涨比较剧烈，所以整个调整周期也比较长。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">基本上在1月的时候，天津市场才会让大家感到比较舒服。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="270" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.488245931283906" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2CMp9hcjVWhdVzUwgJBcL21KUkMrNeDnd6c5yEsHbg5xxluDAvIYlRw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>广东</strong>整体来讲，2019年11月的时候市场特别好，然后就一路下降。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">当然深圳可能是比较特殊的，量价齐跌，基本上今年4月的时候，就开始有些恢复了。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">因为目前每个地方对中期反弹的温度不一样，可能广州比较明显地感觉到，但有很多其他地方，例如中山、珠海等就还没有感觉到。所以现在可能是最好的一个拿地时机，因为在明年的下半年，就会进入一个比较舒服的市场反弹状态。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="332" data-backw="485" data-ratio="0.6845360824742268" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2EnLEaQWV8VoK5BPicBZribOmeuy0H0blquDbSFM7hUsCQjx8rLVicLkfw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="485" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">这是房价比例增速的一个对比，从中可以看出，过去这两年在哪些地方投资是能够跑赢的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">竖着看，格子红得越多就越厉害，最猛的是东莞，最差的是潮州，其次是深圳，然后是广州。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="386" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6980108499095841" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2FW8hA0vM6p1cdaH9zfHzicDg3WeT42PNmpZgcoib8bSB5nMW4HrkXkibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">我们做了一个预测，接下来哪个地方会好。图中可以看到，汕尾、汕头、肇庆这三个地方可能不错。大家可以关注一下。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="299" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.5406871609403255" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2LgLnaFABUYboODu9DoKniaiaYTR5ESCWhYrIfQ0n2NoiazWWOnCJnWoGw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>江苏</strong>的情况也是一样，这个需求基本上是在今年下半年见底，现在可能在恢复的过程中，整体也是反弹的一个状态。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="375" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6781193490054249" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2YTPCNSgTdtMBWiawica119fxlqwTO0UyuKP92qNTXsMVmFrVhXUUDuibA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从过去的一年来看，淮安的表现比较好，苏州比较弱，其他城市都差不多。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="383" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6925858951175407" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2liaRuVJepjoDyJLqQx1vYVYNTjDxrw9sibvWRhf4191mEdsaBl0O34SQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来预测的话，盐城会比较差，扬州还不错。无锡、镇江、南通这些城市都还会挺好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="271" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.49005424954792043" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2KU4Q7vh5TMH9yLibZfOGSY5eNupVpIXntfaPpTPiagkfl7J4kAmJ7xkQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>浙江</strong>也差不多是这样。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">长三角在这一轮运行之后都在反弹的过程中，且会一直持续到明年的二季度。可能明年的下半年才是投资这些地方的最好时期，现在则是在这些地方进行销售的最好时期。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="368" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6642599277978339" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2y7vAG8lyyfuEqbHlen248kYKqEDnYz4iajFQicOqyic1kauhZGXJbPsoA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">浙江在过去一年里，表现最差的是湖州，最好的是杭州。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="368" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6654611211573237" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2K6v9ZJDGJq7DKWH0Ew5DsUnbKaycEIDb82kicB2txC3nEf7nl3kUgBg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">预测在未来的一年，湖州的表现会有所反弹，然后宁波、金华、杭州依然还不错，包括绍兴。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="270" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.488245931283906" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2eMbhVn6ib5JicEgnC6zdHiamQ3NPKu3RiajRWXmZMOZibZSpkP4f1d56Ohg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>四川</strong>的情况相对来讲就比江苏区域慢了。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在2019年下来这一波，无论是价格或其他，基本上都是到2020年8月才开始增长。当然它反弹的时间也比较短，基本上在明年的下半年可能就会增长了。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="377" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6817359855334539" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2rmGVgYmQLNUMWnkFnyTFRK1hIk8bibHWROqpwaTtGibgNt5xw3riaIWgQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年的状况，成都表现比较好，广元、德阳、攀枝花也都还不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="388" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.701627486437613" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2NJ3K45wDTnJmjbMymoEyibMLCBBJyEaQoPe3QqQecTF2IkvUcTRzZbA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">再看未来一年的预测，比较好的地方还是成都，南充还有乐山等地方可能表现会更强一些。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="266" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4810126582278481" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2gaGaVTOIqJR8gIUDKqfsdmMRVqObdm692iaAADIpBg22osmbicGRh41g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>重庆</strong>的节奏基本上跟成都一样，不过它的周期要比成都长。所以，整体来讲整个市场恢复的状态，从今年的下半年开始，会一路慢慢恢复到2021年的年底。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="269" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4864376130198915" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2Q4HKPlZSC2ibEx1jqzfyFO2ArxMUye0g4KclHkK4CWeZxBTHKZibwibDQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>山东</strong>的情况也是一样，刚刚在反弹。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="385" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6962025316455697" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb21XrR5TeIeLiaALGkFYb0xe9ZMI3EM5LprricviaGao1y1Qwa8tIJPQskg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">山东表现比较好的是泰安，表现最差的是临沂。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="380" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6871609403254972" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2zuoTB20Yefwo2TlB0icNEQYydUgOzSFGtjC9rEibLAA7Qs4my35Dicung/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年状况表现最好的可能是枣庄、威海、日照，临沂、泰安也不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="270" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.488245931283906" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb25iciaFduiaf2QWvgAWzNheBrl32N6yZ9avWxIjDQM0251CgAicko0lj4cQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>安徽</strong>的见底时间还早一点，到明年的三季度才会下来。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="371" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6696750902527075" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2xVdrPUtd6SCKXUMPJZqKlZA0ECboIQ3DmPab0IseM0eB3Lj72oTicCQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在过去一年里表现比较好的是合肥、黄山跟铜陵。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="371" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6708860759493671" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2smHMJCTwLoHtfXOXBOQaMxaVNAXm8SH3F2VW4k2gfzwRHthmd8SaGw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">预计未来一年表现比较好的是铜陵。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="269" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4864376130198915" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2PCdI8fmFkseQygqOqtLB4GyEzYvvUYMsQSIS8S3NE6C6xFa86QfgeQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>山西</strong>目前还在一个下降的过程中。总体来讲，西北地区跟西南就不在一个节奏上，需求的下降可能见底了。房子可以去卖，但是跟天津一样，假如你的价格没有优势的话，可能要到明年的一季度了。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="390" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.705244122965642" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2e6BuweCr3R5ea26T5qXJVYhzdATAsRaoibajuHJq2OryshtVzU3ft2Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从过去一年的表现来看，是临汾跟吕梁会好一些，太原跟阳泉表现很一般。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="389" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.7034358047016275" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2D0gmUmOl8WEBG0dWmB8jBAQubBBpe3d5AgREzCibqeN5s3Bj11sfnkQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">接下来的一年表现最好的应该就是太原了，现在太原是比较好的拿地机会。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="265" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.47920433996383366" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2rRms8sDqB9Qwp3WJvw2iakqphdrKZyLhOswxpEr2nDK2CmaVNavQClw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>陕西</strong>方面，市场之前非常的强，所以整个下降的过程都很缓慢，要到明年。从今年三四季度开始出现这个状态，一直要到明年的二季度才能够间接反弹，当然它反弹的时间会比较长一点。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="378" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6823104693140795" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2HjRJWEfvO9yjzrm7mKQAHp2uFEA9E3p2K6FAXfIHybeQcLvu2RTNOg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去的表现里面，咸阳是比较好的。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="373" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6732851985559567" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2fnFN7ibexlHsTRmiaRAP9ZxpbkgzQiblmsBOiceKkIBm0a1B2Svic7DvicFw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">再看未来一年预测，基本上就是西安跟商洛会好一些。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="267" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.48282097649186256" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2kHBdcxx1YbvZKPOcpqLLz34qAhWiaveF6bePxKUQ1ZRhIE4jofDaCzw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>江西</strong>的资源也见底了，在反弹。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="386" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6980108499095841" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2siazuD9kxicdyXdouhbNcicF0k9zFqGTd4nSzVUWGYZCksBNAblHNyyOw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年表现最好的新余、萍乡、九江。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="377" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6817359855334539" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2nfZnOh81CE9XdQ4gEwtlk5Sia4pia6CARx3icd3ypzR81D18bBFbkzo3A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年最好的可能是萍乡跟宜春。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="272" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4918625678119349" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2e4cUHD8uDvvuIJGibw3VHSRVIlb30zfwDicicnaSGGria4acJVXysvmB2g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>河北</strong>环北京的很多，基本上2019年11月份见底，这一波反弹会一直到2021年9月，是挺好的机会。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="372" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6726943942133815" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2I8DQB3W3ibgTSZ5xMiat9vms4XF14AKIacNkyAAeq4au6cpPg8iaicFDlg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年张家口、邯郸跟秦皇岛是表现比较好的。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="375" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6781193490054249" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2EAe7m2j1QeiaHlekVqBibvuia6MOIaUic3O0KehhibEZugPW1Q47wQnoKaA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在未来一年的话，廊坊可能会表现很糟糕，邢台、秦皇岛还会不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="269" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4864376130198915" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2f4rZnosqKzrGyS7zcas900sr64iagiaDicVH7drlWCa90USUibiaOFNoVzQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>河南</strong>这一波下跌基本上是在今年的8、9月份会见底。然后一波反弹一直持续到2022年9月。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="379" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6853526220614828" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2YZjoIMicmDNKjSvZr0iaMzEsTBhdIgPqJHJHOFPFU59M0aMCtZwcUZyQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年表现最好的是三门峡，安阳、新乡、濮阳都不错，反而郑州的表现比较弱。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="381" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6877256317689531" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2PwicDDHXfOeWcf61tJGfyyK89uwjmtuBn9OgsgOD8zEbX3DNJ0Udnlg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年比较好的是济源，濮阳是不错的。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="276" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.49909584086799275" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2OSRur08Shiah2C2PqRkFmuXgs7jqXmlLCX1tIpO5yFHPc3RVpIv37rw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>福建</strong>基本上也是在2019年10月，当然只是价格，整个市场成交方面的下降可能要到9月反弹，大概一年的时间后是比较好的。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="382" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6895306859205776" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2rUcY4LwDp94v0GNah6ibUo3hDkGjYbdEFX3sSXUL35lmVmN8Pq2faXQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年比较好的是宁德。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="386" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6980108499095841" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2514sk3jZMQvWbrf1HU6Hjytf5WxOY2wT1ATjNoLBibvZVSKmfztKm4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年来看的话，厦门可能会很惨，莆田的这些还是不错的。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="270" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.488245931283906" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb21QyRdyKJh3BDmDEibys8ZjuSmwKGdadHtjvuBN4FWlzWJajicia01XWNQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>海南</strong>整体来讲周期结束，也在反弹。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="393" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.7106690777576854" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2lTzL1iak8T4uCY9r3moTRx02ickqib8qPZ4eqjEvWRDLkichbCYicKNicAqQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年，白沙表现比较不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="388" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.7003610108303249" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb24Zs4faibtJNoew4dUl59rIVyicC9qEibAOORgQRUR7ERziacdRcYlsx33w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年琼海比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="268" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.48375451263537905" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2cicrYofpibq0GdJCJnbicJlGgtC8COpUa7sDd6wiaTNu39yicGTw7zZ8lzw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>湖北</strong>在8、9月份见底，会有个反弹。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="383" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6925858951175407" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2ZFSN0uicw1y4X49KKLk1u7mW7Kovayt7icAZKyiarZROc5SoB3LduePkA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年来看的话，整个武汉市比较好，黄冈也不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="383" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6925858951175407" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2Biaele1tnDAEowyrK9y2eu1R3aRbw1r54kOrPaJIl3icFwqHDDG8Fy4w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年来看的话，潜江很差。武汉相对来讲还会好一些。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="271" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.4891696750902527" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2Fp4gFMq56oumiatIZNvpnUgeoHxSfuoicf8dmTvahEXpnIoCzWdCBhsQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>湖南</strong>的一波调整其实还没有结束，今年年底是进入湖南的一些城市的好机会。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="384" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6943942133815552" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2KicxOUibiagGsJMqthfIDeRdOfdUM3kuBRicregyHD8wvTGuUmMiaYummXQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年的话，涨的最多的是湘西，还有益阳，然后才是长沙。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="383" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6925858951175407" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2Xbfyv9WkD66OxaDaftt3ib6uZ9qKw0D1g7Tu1OGv8ryBaNQDIRUrA1g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">预测未来一年的话，可能娄底会不错，益阳应该是值得考虑的一个城市。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="271" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.49005424954792043" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2THic1KTRXYYq0su4s162OxFRWic1FCmClcJo9x7YSZKib2Vlxicq6nTDxA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>甘肃</strong>基本上也见底反弹了。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="382" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6907775768535263" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2zgNLZm56XXGnD9f3NFJae9nUYQicy05OFIP2yY0UMhZNkVaBPG9bxicg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去的一年里面，临夏、甘南、金昌表现比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="386" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6980108499095841" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2bo2LbpGky2UjzhByomuOhNWOvEGROLibIriboibrmM4feIMYhgNW7aAhg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在未来的一年里面，没有表现特别突出的，有两个风险比较大的是酒泉跟张掖。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="271" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.49005424954792043" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2XUWuJdgwST2dbloPQ9zR17yiaKRiauQDQwEP2DH68xCEVticdbfXJMiaOg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>新疆</strong>还在下降过程，基本上需求可能快见底了，但是这个价格可能还需要再等一等，2021年7月可能会比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="384" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6943942133815552" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2Dqcy6dxtV9eib8mwuLuSRRibqZaFnp6OIGNCyFiakyuZamhQVwOUq5LBQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年的表现，吐鲁番非常的惨。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="387" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6998191681735986" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2YSKUZ8AQbrojz5eN9aFqSnmfIHbW1527bQs88E9nU8UbUR9HwmYH1Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年里面，所有城市好像都在复苏。喀什、伊犁、五家渠等都表现得不错，乌鲁木齐不行。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="269" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4864376130198915" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2Jder7rXj7YkOuyfRqiatTgkHkKdEq0uNaIezzDzGEswMxoiasHgPcoDw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>西藏</strong>也基本上在反弹。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="398" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.7197106690777577" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2guW6IiaGSQop3fDxRicAR902vADzbbRQXzafffqqjtJtCib0NgutrM5GA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年，日喀则比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="394" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.7124773960216998" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb207HYUicibHYG59ub3N4ZZzO6X5OEY85TgcibU0EoHDIsuXw2QZTcPD5fw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年的话，拉萨会表现好一点，灵芝还是不行。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="268" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.484629294755877" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2BKlLNZyADole6xn3maHpb341ebG9ZcgB2iayVXecCXoC3SxoeziaUCEA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>宁夏</strong>的价格还没见底，但是成交的需求已经见底了。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="380" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6871609403254972" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2YjTQiaCWiazfXksfYsBFb3SibYzibolj42n95IIB5l0sUKRLTWvBO3tdQw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年的话银川表现最好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="379" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6841155234657039" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2ZFlB9RibS6uiaMibzYmLQdP9Wp9beeXsfD5eer3VJeg0FTMpj9NvXqwZQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年，银川还会继续延续，固原也还可以。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="274" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.49458483754512633" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2GQC89CwNTZWmEiaIibF7w4OQniafuV6UGFlTRU4CHtDmPx6UZucbkZoibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>贵州</strong>整个市场也在一个下降的过程，基本上到2021年一季度会稍微好一些。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="391" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.7070524412296564" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb21P5AgVkTCczeCMyIMChcMlarCO58lgxQLUZCMog0frnZia6n52g1sibg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在过去一年，贵阳跟铜仁表现比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="378" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6835443037974683" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2owemKK2E7iahQWLxpZC3ZVibl965JcrlaZFeMDk43frjBVcqKSH2SyEQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在未来一年，贵阳依然会表现的不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="271" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.49005424954792043" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2wWDYNJEZWBI9CkBtNtutZIXv70YT5TatovcEbS6m8d42YHrUIexmcQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>辽宁</strong>基本上2019年10月见底，2020年8月开始反弹，但是价格方面其实是在一路下降，所以到2021年4月才会见底。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="383" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6925858951175407" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2dblOOUpZyqp8v3eDnuB0TVCQ5OX1AfbgevyolqqtX8zXFiaXo3bQIGg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从过去一年来看的话，盘锦是表现比较好的一个地方。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="381" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6889692585895117" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2WiaWI0qnHJ6stfurW35EDvfdtlfibZlibPF1nm2cCU0YYr3zOFtCtqSdw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">接下来未来一年的话，大连跟沈阳都不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="268" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.484629294755877" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2loPw1HVeBicMc1q2ZWooxYTwTu7HoZWeB3dCEI2XCZC8PQCY31Uydmg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>云南</strong>的这一波见底是在最近这两个月，然后开始反弹。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="376" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6799276672694394" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2nUQqAibuqcWIibYDuQCqcwvOWFUEvouic8Bf0zg3c6yO22JCgibYtLDymg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年比较好的是曲靖、红河、迪庆，昆明一直都比较差。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="372" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6714801444043321" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2L6AEnffGxm0GzH6L7smjsUjA31Y6bgk0eYWTCXtSjuwyvIJmlYEjGQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年，普洱、丽江都是不错的。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="274" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.49547920433996384" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2kAZb8bicGhvVqSLSt5wic7yT8cQlxV8KWCYqdLbjFKOADzrWEaU6VNOQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>广西</strong>也是一样，基本上在三四季度。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="377" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6817359855334539" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2S6E2zj9kDYUIicsPMnRrwaIE2toVfXvTbxLtgtJl8C4SYUQUHFkt68g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年表现比较好的是南宁跟百色。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="380" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6871609403254972" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2uw4qXg8z4ABOhL2dlcVyic5fDGQDsXr36DmgzvNtjJ7zzpRdxI1FTzw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在未来一年的话，防城港、玉林其实会不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="273" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.4936708860759494" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2775Ef4kWQqrmW0vzia2LayIvica6KUvZ5tjxd7ArG5tZ4iaf5jI6FBmPQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>内蒙古</strong>也是差不多。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="373" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.674502712477396" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2nic2gwBKnKAGQw9QqNMQONoHwUSC6xqPibx6CMvTCtISa4BfkZ79ic73Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年是乌海比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="377" data-backw="554" data-ratio="0.6805054151624549" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2w7ajGk2L1pWbqk3e6qJbaEDREvwiaMbHOo5f66seRWxicX3Dy2IEQCHQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年的话，呼和浩特、鄂尔多斯是一个不错的选择。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="270" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.488245931283906" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2nUkzhCTxBJnLUHnROumD5EJyB5iaiaJTpoT0cHic0YeICcQ3HlDudByGg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>吉林</strong>情况都差不多。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="384" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6943942133815552" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2j2iaFkHdhF7zVHKaOibCegYfdI3iaPACLjPggHsLu2m64w4RiaicHhBk7jw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年白山涨的比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="386" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6980108499095841" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2f3BHrSt1cR8Eh3yTTMVibyrjSctiaE2H722NPN7XgPyia50vX2eYdYIibA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年吉林可能会比较惨。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="267" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.48282097649186256" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2KCa3FNVTJaicYX5QqOAyQ1hUts9L6OSZqQqdvXWn7ibNkRothvnOiceQw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>青海</strong>基本上也在见底，但是周期比较短，所以可能到明年中段的时候，又是一个小周期结束。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="387" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6998191681735986" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2KLhIkrx0g21UQgibLGYwO44lCZiaFJcPNHdkC6bAPXgjbIDvBSy8Ekdw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年西宁表现不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="378" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6835443037974683" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2behqMDw50Wcw2GQiaPVTibbg2vtDxkyYNibeAGcic6m7uOSeBxyK3znAoQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">未来一年，西宁表现还是不错，深入研究西宁就ok了。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="271" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.49005424954792043" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2QrZ6ic1Ciac3icSk8ttuu9Zql12SMB2ETjXb7CxdPEj31I8tpxb2Zhk6w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong>黑龙江</strong>也是见底的反弹，但是反弹时间在一个季度就结束了。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="377" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6817359855334539" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2vLj2rnx4wwCOwmc3ricPvXOy5QF88goibW9jtccVlJDjhOx8X4xiaQJ5g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">过去一年哈尔滨跟黑河表现比较好。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-backh="379" data-backw="553" data-ratio="0.6853526220614828" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb24ZeO6icP8qImL8Ga7zehSG8gZTkfCh7PDIQGpwzq5tibpDkn217icVxHQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">在未来一年，大兴安岭、佳木斯、哈尔滨会不错。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display:inline-block;margin:10px auto;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.8em;text-align: center;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;font-size: 18px;background-color: rgb(81, 180, 165);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">三</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0.25em;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;border-bottom: 1px dashed #afafaf;border-top-color: #51b4a5;border-left-color: #51b4a5;border-right-color: #51b4a5;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;" hm_fix="191:337"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;">小结</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 0.5em;height: 0.5em;border-radius: 50%;background-color: #51b4a5;color: #ffffff;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.4358047016274864" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6HhoKgGc4Faiaa5YJibdZOb2icLiaiaIgX5QV3uS7wjEqIAyR9U59ibE8dmpf904Vbrn2HyicGR9EfPQicnQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="553" style="" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;">从沿海到内陆，根据经济的状态，周期整个见底的时间是有差别的。因为周期的情况不一样，大概在明年二三季度的时候，沿海发达城市见底，然后再逐步向内陆延展。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="1.7914614121510672" data-w="609" data-backw="579" data-backh="1037" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6xoK43yU9ndSI22mCLBDNT8AJ648FgpWP4By5yLUttUAeWjl93NuTDczDx4xCqxVHO3aiaZCl2ibew/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;width: 444px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(204, 204, 204);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">—— END ——</span></strong></span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">猜你想再看<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-indent: 0em;text-align: 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style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=191239418c15b0c6f395c843415da5fd&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028970ac64031955167bfde997cdc96375bfb3bce25b5076f1458e11be2be27&amp;token=217203186&amp;lang=zh_CN&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">徐州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a 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href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1e787f725d62f227dbc6c33d0b9ea3eb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08accd8896c160b37e7a4436d21e1fbf2cc596763115db5ef6e04dc914ce478&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">兰州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=048088acd651254d77cc238d71b1af04&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a7c36e33460f244db68a856502151c73820b314470b7e24412b9a8b6dcd5b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">常德</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a 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href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=12f08ffb076544edcbc24e91bc3d87d7&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a1cd4530a9033d462d4732c500dcdda723bdc3a87f4d55f1c62f657a4cb77&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">柳州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=6&amp;sn=0a89c4ab17039cec25754aa111b87308&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a6fdc14a1c0e877928f2fa46798a8b592b2b2023ad1c65081bbc80b2fafad&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">蚌埠</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=7&amp;sn=1bc72e377ffc3b621c2886d68c437515&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07adc8c50a3e1409197892c508ad9c27a6b52f8e4dde12740baf5674f5a7fa6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">合肥</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=10e3d481f7fd0ff46dafe2648cd3ddfb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a5118705d6b85487fa97dd013a2aee842be719ee13086aab8dee370b54185&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">南京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海临港</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">太原</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">温州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word 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break-word !important;">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">热点：</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485505&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=90a4482d0ec14f8a4d441f77c653806c&amp;chksm=97557265a022fb7385559a6648c54242c721582b3811ad664360ea1e6f562f0f62264852c20c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" data-itemshowtype="0" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳土拍</a><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831957&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a889b497d60264ef90aea585e4d4556f&amp;chksm=83517bcab426f2dc5e2b3778bc8e8834b453c4eac98c490ebeb525c4a5b01093fe602418b8fb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">美国地产</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">长租公寓</span></a><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">中美贸易战</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">粤港澳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">专业：</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word !important;">穿越熊市</a>&nbsp;<span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831371&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b15fe316680aabc64e2b7c37e5767d8&amp;chksm=83517614b426ff0229de8ab490c6a7fb33f9e7de34bae145abd3565818c5965c1eca5a4b0029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: 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