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房地产的这十五年

发布于 2021-07-25

<section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.2075" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/Ljib4So7yuWhA8MV2EexloWrIaLvcCxU90Uv1jooVYK4jjnZC9avl8AHVp58CyibfsmcEDmcAbaFbfAwh2LqV4ZA/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="400" data-width="64%" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 64%;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">01</span><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 100%;height: 35px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);margin-bottom: -33px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);transform: translateX(2px);padding: 6px 18px 5px 17px;height: 35px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #343433;line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mid="">地产趋势</p></section></section><section style="width: 9px;height: 35px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;margin-top: -35px;z-index: 1;background: #FFFFFF;margin-right: -2.5px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.888888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_svg/5mxuSU5RGhYdniaIiarkfXpjgrVImpnasPZpFAjjxYm95p3ibDjsXbTBLRGr2u3PyWkLFcNlt376hEdbAX2vOSIAaAziciaQwwWGI/640?wx_fmt=svg" data-type="svg" data-w="9" /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2006年-2020年,全国销售金额增长率持续下降,全国销售套数增长率也持续下降;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2006年-2020年,全国平均套均总价增长率持续上升。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4525316455696203" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5hIrgV3H3nDnq963980F5phalgqd7JEUqlTiabSRmZTmK5bSL2eP74NwYCxgbJOsuo6liaXVEXoWGg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1264" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><strong>结 论:</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>1、以规模增长带动业绩增长的模式,会越来越难,不是说做大规模不对,而是说仅仅做大规模是不足以抵御风险,大而不倒只是想象。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>2、房子确实越来越贵,购房门槛越来越高,事关民生,房住不炒的严控政策很难有松动。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">02</span><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-bottom: -33px;width: 105px;height: 35px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);"><br /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 6px 18px 5px 17px;text-align: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);transform: translateX(2px);height: 35px;"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(52, 52, 51);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 1px;">宏观趋势</p></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -35px;margin-right: -2.5px;width: 9px;height: 35px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="3.888888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_svg/5mxuSU5RGhYdniaIiarkfXpjgrVImpnasPZpFAjjxYm95p3ibDjsXbTBLRGr2u3PyWkLFcNlt376hEdbAX2vOSIAaAziciaQwwWGI/640?wx_fmt=svg" data-type="svg" data-w="9" /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2006年-2020年,全国城镇人口增长率持续下降,全国人均可支配收入增长率也持续下降;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2006年-2020年,全国建成区面积增长率持续上升。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4525316455696203" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5hIrgV3H3nDnq963980F5pib3FU8Pib0KlJMXzoNv4cNcUpyC0dB8Y28y1P5pyOTNkPIQIMTfSsCdg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1264" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;"><strong> 结 论:</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>1、人口的城镇化增速在下降,人均财富增速也在下降,机会还在细分市场里。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>2、城市还在扩张,建设用地的紧缺会得到缓解,风险在高地价里。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">03</span><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-bottom: -33px;width: 105px;height: 35px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);"><br /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 6px 18px 5px 17px;text-align: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);transform: translateX(2px);height: 35px;"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(52, 52, 51);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 1px;">地产投资逻辑</p></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -35px;margin-right: -2.5px;width: 9px;height: 35px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="3.888888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_svg/5mxuSU5RGhYdniaIiarkfXpjgrVImpnasPZpFAjjxYm95p3ibDjsXbTBLRGr2u3PyWkLFcNlt376hEdbAX2vOSIAaAziciaQwwWGI/640?wx_fmt=svg" data-type="svg" data-w="9" /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: justify;">主要看“钱”,其次看“地”,最后才是看“人”</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">将市场增长率与宏观增长率对比分析,可以看出,与房地产市场增长最相关的是M2的增速,也就是货币发行量,其次是建成区面积的增速,也就是城市扩张速度(基础设施投资),最后才是各类人口相关的增速。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.42902208201892744" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5hIrgV3H3nDnq963980F5peJLTdwRBJddIgLic0r4hJt0fTNS1dibjevDsjk6KEKPG8icoAwNIQgWeg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1268" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><strong>结 论:</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>1、与其研究人口,不如研究货币政策和货币流动。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>2、研究规划利好,既要对城市扩张方向有预判,也要有全局视角,所谓风水轮流转。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">04</span><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-bottom: -33px;width: 105px;height: 35px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);"><br /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 6px 18px 5px 17px;text-align: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);transform: translateX(2px);height: 35px;"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(52, 52, 51);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 1px;">小结一下</p></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -35px;margin-right: -2.5px;width: 9px;height: 35px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="3.888888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_svg/5mxuSU5RGhYdniaIiarkfXpjgrVImpnasPZpFAjjxYm95p3ibDjsXbTBLRGr2u3PyWkLFcNlt376hEdbAX2vOSIAaAziciaQwwWGI/640?wx_fmt=svg" data-type="svg" data-w="9" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、中国房地产过去十五年的发展,是资金推动下的发展,也是房地产货币化金融化的过程。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">简单来说,中国房地产是个货币现象。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">展开来讲,货币现象的产生,是因为过去十五年,我国处于全球化、工业化和城市化三期红利叠加的大发展时期。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">全球化让我们获得了更多美元资产,提高了国内基础货币的发行量。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">工业化扩张让我们有了更多生产设备和交通配套设施的投资需求,为基础货币加了一次杠杆,放大了货币发行量。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />而城市化又把人聚集到一起共同生活、生产、消费,产生了许多城市基础建设投资需求。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">再加了一道杠杆,伴随婴儿潮人群购房潮的兴起,大量资金涌入房地产行业,各种以土地和房子为抵押的信贷又帮着加了一道杠杆。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、先来看看M2的增长情况,2007年M2总量40.34万亿,2020年总量218.68万亿,涨幅442%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">再来看看建成区的增长情况,2007年全国建成区面积3.55万平方公里,2020年全国建成区面积6.26万平方公里,增幅76.5%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、那么,<strong>房价到底有没有跑赢货币发行速度?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">深圳,2007年房价10998元/㎡,2020年房价70308元/㎡,房价涨了539%;</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">苏州,2007年房价7283元/㎡,2020年房价29190元/㎡,房价涨了301%;</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆,2006年房价4307元/㎡,2020年房价12492元/㎡,房价涨了190%。</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">与大家想象的不同,<strong>深圳房价很疯狂,但也只是小幅跑赢M2,感觉还不错的苏州明显跑输M2,近期市场火爆的重庆更是大幅跑输</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、也就是说,虽然感觉上,房地产价格持续上涨时间很长,局部地区上涨幅度也很大,但从数据来看,房地产的扩张速度并没有超过货币扩张的速度。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">房地产行业即便受定向枷锁政策调控,依然有较为稳固的发展基本盘,随着中国经济持续增长,货币发行量还是会持续增长,这也确保了<strong>房地产行业依然有较好的增长空间。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以预测,2019-2029年年均销售金额可以保持在20万亿,详见禾略2019年3月11日推送的文章“<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649832246&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a2fe28b9c769d82516f0ca465ccc37ab&amp;chksm=83517ae9b426f3ffc47804b042e58d0ccb48bd8f6be938cacf0b8d9ad955dceb152d34b31255&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="预判I 2019-2029年,中国房地产行业年均销售金额20万亿" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">预判I 2019-2029年,中国房地产行业年均销售金额20万亿</a>”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">05</span><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-bottom: -33px;width: 105px;height: 35px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);"><br /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 6px 18px 5px 17px;text-align: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);transform: translateX(2px);height: 35px;"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(52, 52, 51);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 1px;">调控政策的根</p></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -35px;margin-right: -2.5px;width: 9px;height: 35px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="3.888888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_svg/5mxuSU5RGhYdniaIiarkfXpjgrVImpnasPZpFAjjxYm95p3ibDjsXbTBLRGr2u3PyWkLFcNlt376hEdbAX2vOSIAaAziciaQwwWGI/640?wx_fmt=svg" data-type="svg" data-w="9" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">M2和GDP</span></strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当“GDP同比—M2同比 &gt; 0”,意味着经济景气度高,3-6个月后就可能收紧房地产调控,防止泡沫化;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当“GDP同比—M2同比 &lt; 0”,意味着经济景气度差,3-6个月后就可能放松房地产调控。可以回看过去15年地产发展的变化——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2005年三季度GDP同比和M2同比差值跌破0,房地产调控逐步放松,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2007年三季度经济过热,房地产调控开始收紧,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2008年遇上次贷危机,出现一波小型危机,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em><br /></em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2009年开始放松调控并放水救市,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em><br /></em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2010年三季度经济恢复,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em><br /></em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2011年赶上欧债危机,又出现一波小型危机,房地产调控再次放松,吸取四万亿经验,开始温和放水救市,实现了一波从2011年到2016年的楼市小牛市,这期间造就了不少黑马开发商,也训练出了一大批高周转思维的职业经理人,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em><br /></em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2017年开始收紧调控,全面牛市结束,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em><br /></em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2018年房地产调控进入新阶段,中央定原则“房住不炒”,地方有弹性“一城一策”,</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em><br /></em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><em>· 2020突发新冠疫情,应对得当,于是,2021年一季度,GDP同比和M2同比差值不仅突破到0以上,而且看这个差值,甚至超过了2007年经济过热时候的水平,所以对于最近的调控收紧,既是意料之中,也是情理之中。</em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以参考禾略2018年1月10日推送的文章“<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830431&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b7596dea6473253d931b3fac3435f622&amp;chksm=835175c0b426fcd63330d6b1a95eea4c8c78ff31886b2494fd56162bbba8c5cf939854102298&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="禾略是这样理解调控政策的" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">禾略是这样理解调控政策的</a>”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.3892828999211978" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5hIrgV3H3nDnq963980F5prRR6fSYTBffVkibslnx1ickbW4U7ia9ZfaOibcyxWABbAvFZkEXhweHt0g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1269" style=""></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><strong>结 论:</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、经济快速反弹的趋势并不能持续,降准依然是大概率事件;</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、原材料及大宗商品的价格上涨压力很大,物价上涨压力也很大;</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、整体环境类似美国1970-1980年,理论上,出现滞涨是大概率事件,但有了前人的经验教训,我们已经知道,要治住“滞涨”,一方面是要降准,确保货币数量充足(1920年代教训),另外一方面是不能加息,确保货币价格稳定(1970年代教训),所以,宏观调控政策就只能选择定向降准和定向加息;</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、总的来说,降准放的水不准进房地产行业,而且要对房价泡沫抬头的城市的房贷进行定向的加息。</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">06</span><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-bottom: -33px;width: 105px;height: 35px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);"><br /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 6px 18px 5px 17px;text-align: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);transform: translateX(2px);height: 35px;"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(52, 52, 51);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 1px;">机会在哪</p></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -35px;margin-right: -2.5px;width: 9px;height: 35px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="3.888888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_svg/5mxuSU5RGhYdniaIiarkfXpjgrVImpnasPZpFAjjxYm95p3ibDjsXbTBLRGr2u3PyWkLFcNlt376hEdbAX2vOSIAaAziciaQwwWGI/640?wx_fmt=svg" data-type="svg" data-w="9" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">也就是说,从行业规模来看,年销金额20万亿的市场,依然大有可为。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从宏观经济大环境来看,政策严控依然是主基调,不仅不会放松,且会持续收紧;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从企业经营的角度来看,在热点城市,面粉比“面包”贵将是常态,但即便如此,也需要认识到,以前企业不论拿到什么面粉,其实都是做的馒头,小馒头五毛,中馒头一元,大馒头两元。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果企业可以真的学会做面包,那么就会发现,同样是面粉,搭配不同辅料和手艺,面包的价格其实跨度很大,碱水面包八元,肉松面包十二元,香浓手撕包十六元,法式可颂二十四元。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><strong>机 会 一 :</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">以客户为导向,做对定位,做好产品</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在商品房拥有率高的城市,坚决以产品领先来占领改善高端市场,在商品房拥有率低的城市,坚决以成本领先来占领首置、首改市场。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们统计了97个城市的数据,用“商品房套数/家庭数”得出“商品房拥有率,结果如下:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.9582637729549248" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5hIrgV3H3nDnq963980F5piaOYWJ07aRSNUiaV605vCMcUv4LUlmjwxpSN3aW75icOF73CHFJR15ZiaA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1198" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8329979879275654" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5hIrgV3H3nDnq963980F5pXTXLDUJMYkeNHYL1qpm4IDWpYibicnTnwiaIqcaLY6wQtvwS9qyA4MTxw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="994" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><strong>机 会 二 :</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">到城市扩张的方向里寻找机会,不要迷恋成熟的城区,也不要害怕现状的郊区</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,因为中国的城市空间,还远远不足以支持更多人民过上美好的生活。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们把配套成熟的城市空间计算了出来,用红色代表城区。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">大家可以看到,即便在长三角(包括江苏、浙江),也就上海城市空间比较充足,其余所谓崛起的各种新一线,城市建设<span style="font-size: 16px;">严重</span>不足。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.2865035516969219" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5hIrgV3H3nDnq963980F5pzalicnWcQvSylMX85hia4Lo8uOV79x71AqzY9aHM93rB7FwgELiaEcHjQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1267" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-bottom: -33px;width: 105px;height: 35px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);"><br /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 6px 18px 5px 17px;text-align: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 51);transform: translateX(2px);height: 35px;"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(52, 52, 51);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 1px;">总结</p></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -35px;margin-right: -2.5px;width: 9px;height: 35px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="3.888888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_svg/5mxuSU5RGhYdniaIiarkfXpjgrVImpnasPZpFAjjxYm95p3ibDjsXbTBLRGr2u3PyWkLFcNlt376hEdbAX2vOSIAaAziciaQwwWGI/640?wx_fmt=svg" data-type="svg" data-w="9" /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、房地产是货币现象的典型代表,如果想研究市场,最好是研究“钱”,而要搞清楚“钱”就要搞清楚产业;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、不是宏观调控政策主导市场走向,而是市场走向在推动各种宏观调控政策的出台,如果想研究调控,最好是研究市场周期,也就是研究市场泡沫化的规律;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、客户导向无疑是房地产企业突围的好帮手。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所谓房地产的供给侧改革,就是坚定相信萨伊说的,“供给创造需求,需求推动经济发展只是结果,不是原因”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">积极从“在合适的土地上,为合适的客户,提供合适的产品”升级迭代为“在可以买到的土地上,为可以争取到的最有支付力的客户,提供独一无二的高价值产品”;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、做好城市研究,积极下沉,为广大还没住上商品房的普通人,提供优质产品;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5、住宅市场依然大有可为,不要盲目转型换赛道,应该围绕住宅这个核心产品,不断把产品和服务做好、做深,将一部分利润投资到“城市服务配套建设能力”的发展上,或许可以实现1+1=10。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br 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