房地产 x TED|当前地王现象的解读

<section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; text-align: center; padding-left: 0.8em; padding-right: 0.8em; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 3.6em; margin-left: -0.8em; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX200vChIcaFCEaNL2picWobnPvlNriatOUnACv0v4IQPly8b2JGCIVibTGQ/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="1" data-w="96" /> </section><section class="" style="box-shadow: rgba(159, 160, 160, 0.498039) 0px 0px 10px; width: 100%; padding: 8px; float: left; margin-top: -3.2em; margin-bottom: -2.8em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="width: 100%; float: left; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-right: 0%; margin-left: 0%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">9月3日 本周日早10:30</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">对于当前地王现象的解读</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">招商蛇口战略发展部副总，黄先生</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="width: 100%; text-align: right; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 3.6em; margin-right: -0.8em; text-align: start; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2U5HdGWJ7VPzKJ9olJmDmg5Mjmxw3OU3Uflt0cQR34yuCIfQ5Gp9vdw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="1" data-w="96" /> </section><section class="" style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; height: 2em; padding: 0.3em 0.5em; vertical-align: top; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">黄先生聊聊地王<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">”热“</strong>现象</section></section><section class="" style="width: 0.5em; display: inline-block; height: 2em; vertical-align: top; border-bottom-width: 1em; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); border-top-width: 1em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); border-right-width: 1em !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="float: left; padding-right: 3px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 44.8px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">交</section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 4.5em !important;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">流的内容是“对于当前地王频出现象的解读”。先说下对于投资的理解。投资不仅仅是一门学问，还是一门艺术，是综合能力的体现。投资综合了政治环境、经济态势、社会行为、行业变化等包罗万象的内容；环境始终处于不断变化、动态发展中，&nbsp;唯一不变的就是一直在变化，不可能“一招鲜、吃遍天”，所以需要敬畏市场，找到适宜的方法论持续不断地研究分析市场，做到理论和实践的结合。群友们是活跃在一线市场上的精英和践行者，以投资推动社会的发展，在实战中不断迭代技能完善投资理念。有幸认识到各位群友，对于我而言，感觉房地产市场变量因素众多，难以准确把握走势变化。今天的交流，希望借此机会和大家共同探讨，得到各位的斧正。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">房地产企业是“地王”的创造者，寄望于个人购房者的买单。“地王”是房地产企业投资行为的体现。“地王”表象是果，投资行为才是本质是因。</strong>做个类比：房地产企业——类似股票市场的机构。&nbsp;资金量大，操作周期长，有专业的组织研究分析市场，看重宏观面和区域经济的变化，在一定程度上可以引导市场的走向。个人购房者——类似股票市场的散户。资金量小，操作迅速具强执行力，船小好调头具灵活性，看重所在城市和微观面价格短期的变化，市场变化的跟随者。这两类参与者各有各的玩法，“大而全”和“小而美”都可以活出各自的精彩。每当黑天鹅事件市场危机来临时，大多数机构和散户都会受到冲击和创伤，不要迷信机构和牛市中的专家。最终跑赢大势的成功投资者，往往是机构中的私募，散户中的少数高手。为什么？&nbsp;行业真专家+市场洞察者+机制够灵活+执行能力强+……&nbsp;(请大家补充原因）</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; padding: 5px 10px; display: inline-block; text-align: center; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">当前房地产状况</section></section><img style="margin-top: -1em; float: left; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2e7LpzTLUbqzeRIicicKmlblfxlHxpHSfX30cxPnefhlk5P0tzIzlcSDQ/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.096875" data-w="640" /> <section class="" style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2mSeU2UjjiaSTOf0VENcfP3GuDu11v5Ppucz52mpeVm1jcLxIFeJiaauw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.5640625" data-w="640" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2LyLmLnpsAhWMXMbVbPuQMOGh7B5G1IibrjicesuiaGfnWyZglgevXuJEA/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.575" data-w="640" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 2em;"><strong>黄先生：<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">类似1998年亚洲经济危机，2008年金融风暴事件。</strong>常规的房地产开发模式很痛苦，类似击鼓传花的游戏。拿地销售—拿贵地销售—拿更贵的地销售—抢地王赌销售。周而复始，利润是纸上富贵，不断地投入到新增项目中。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">每次地王的诞生，犹如一次豪赌！&nbsp;直到下一个地王的出现才安心，待到销售时才知道对错。</strong>如果美国在年内加一次息会是什么样传导？</p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 2em;"><strong>嘉宾：</strong>一次加息实际影响不大，主要是进入加息预期趋势冲击大。美帝一而再再而三修改经济数据 制造的就是一种趋势 就是不让加息落地.。</p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2P5mCjVQ7k1rhOUFc1hcMzB0WUownojXy2ib5H4TnxZnPyaompO2S5Gw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.553125" data-w="640" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2j3EDxUEj5GUlfnz46rGNhRFuEvAFTJibia8rOpp6USe8xmucuKcAbicAw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.5015625" data-w="640" /></p><p style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><br /></p></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; padding: 5px 10px; display: inline-block; text-align: center; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">当前的土地市场的地王频出现象</section></section><img style="margin-top: -1em; float: left; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2icBPnjsJ4qibicMnfeGd516eDa96lQDnbw2P0DVR3qjNS7Y1wPGFDClicA/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.096875" data-w="640" /> <section class="" style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2hb6xtS0xoicrrcicibFmicrdhgkUueKia88ORyGwib8sxma2f3wOCoTVVhsw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.515625" data-w="640" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX23XBD4BDqMr3ZbBYUE5wLwGWms6ebaQ2YhDyicvdpX6K1TpS9cRiacWOQ/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.540625" data-w="640" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2DD5UBLHWxEpvMDqOicd4jl1le8CUOxHJLs0XWWwW7ffTPEmyI0RXqyA/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.55" data-w="640" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; padding: 5px 10px; display: inline-block; text-align: center; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">地王频出现象的原因分析</p></section><img style="margin-top: -1em; float: left; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX24x24ME88QkDJoEq97EA3chozDiaKSBt3NSLNOndv6CXO2OenuVZxhuA/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.096875" data-w="640" /> <section class="" style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 2em;"><strong>嘉宾：为什么会在短期上涨那么多？长期可以分析，短期为什么会涨那么多？</strong></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 2em;"><strong>三、地王频出现象的原因分析。透过现象看本质，大家一起来找原因。</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 2em;"><span style="line-height: 1.6;">基本面先看“供需”，修正面再看“中国特色”。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6;">由于供应和需求的价格弹性不同，导致短期市场受需求影响更大，中长期市场受供应影响更大。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6;">由于是中国特色的市场，政府是一哥，看得见的手总想干预看不见的手，政策频出扰动市场运行变化。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX26n8TAx9ZlxY2ROcCnDvhq0g7OUkTmwicrszwVRzhWTZk1Z9TSyXa2Lg/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-type="png" data-ratio="0.54375" data-w="640" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">嘉宾：</strong>我理解您说的供需是指短期地王频出是有供不应求的影响，价格里有一部分是冲击成本。那么请教两个问题：1，如何判断冲击成本何时反转？2，如何判断排除冲击成本后的价值中枢？</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">黄先生：</strong>短期内关健看货币变化。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三、地王频出现象的原因分析——1需求面——（2)&nbsp;货币因素</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">房价上涨因素，从人口现象转为货币现象；货币规模、松紧度、流向成为影响房价的主要因素。宽松的货币政策，快速地让购房者的“潜在需求”变成了“有效需求”，造成短期内的供需失衡。流动性对于地王涌现频率的影响十分显著。实体经济低迷，企业普遍缺乏投资意愿。资金脱实向虚，导致资产荒。楼市成为银行资金相对安全的资金避风港，商业银行向房贷倾斜。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三、地王频出现象的原因分析——2供应面——（1)土地供应不足。</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">从土地供应来看，2016年土地供应相对不足，促进了地王潮的出现。部分地方政府出于土地财政考虑，希望地价稳步上涨，主观限制土地供应；部分城市土地供应确实不足，客观受限。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三、地王频出现象的原因分析——3各方参与者——(1)政府</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">政府是地价房价上涨的最终最大获益者。调控政策不是为了打压房价，只是想抑制快速上涨，希望稳步持续上涨。目前面临的最大问题是各地政府主要靠吃土地财政，地方债务庞大燕塞湖风险积累。所以去库存政策仍是主流，会因城施策，一城一策。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三、地王频出现象的原因分析——3各方参与者——(2)房地产企业</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">融资宽松，资金成本下降，房企资金普遍宽裕。在房地产政策全面宽松的背景下，收益于销售好转，企业业绩超预期：上半年千亿房企达5家，品牌房企平均目标完成率已达六成。房企发展战略普遍趋同，区域选择聚集，行业集中度不断提高，竞争加剧。房企追求规模增长，运用杜邦分析公式法，严控成本和提高资产周转率是项目开发制胜的出路。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">啰里啰嗦，基本把个人认为的主要因素罗列完了，这些因素是促成地王频出的原因。谢谢大家的参与，请不吝斧正。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; margin-left: 2px; font-size: 20.8px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; margin-bottom: 2px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; margin-left: 6px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"></section><section style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; margin-left: 6px; opacity: 0.8; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"></section><section style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; margin-left: 6px; opacity: 0.6; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"></section><section style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; margin-left: 6px; opacity: 0.4; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 2; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">嘉宾：</strong>开发商的资金成本及购房者的需求都是由现阶段的宽松货币政策导致的，那流动性减少的时候，<span style="text-decoration: underline;">现阶段产生的地王怎么解套</span>？<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">嘉宾2：</strong>政府宽松的货币政策是为什么，就是为了制造地王吗，制造地王是政府需要的，还是意外的结果？</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">黄先生：</strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">地王其实是赌政府背书，货币超发具有惯性，不会极具下跌。所能做的是参与，争取比别人跑得快。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">嘉宾：</strong>那对于购房者来说是不是也要这么理解，也是要跑的快</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">嘉宾B：</strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">地王也能缓解政府地方债务，觉得短期内，政府还是需要这些地王的，这样有助于这个城市的资产升值，来吸引外部资金，比如郑州这样的城市，外资愿意来投资是政府愿意看到的。</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIy26AR0VPy10HiccnJObjibX2N2Jic9WsClGGUnUy5C6pMEJUsK2W6zrvIhxZUIoCaJZ8YQZPDYoSRKg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" class="" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="1.2890625" data-w="640" /></section></section></section><p><br /></p>