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发布于 2025-08-27

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">这是摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) 2025年8月12日研究报告《中国电子商务 - 2025年第二季度业绩展望》的详细内容总结:</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心主题:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告聚焦于即将到来的中国主要电商公司2025年第二季度(2Q25)财报季,分析市场预期、关键关注点以及对各公司业绩和前景的具体预测。</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要结论与预期:</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">整体预期与市场焦点:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">阿里巴巴(BABA.N)、京东(JD.O)、美团(3690.HK)等公司在食品配送(FD)和即时零售(QC)业务上的</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">巨额投资预计将拖累其2Q25利润率</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。市场对此已有普遍预期。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">投资者的核心关注点</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">将转向这些公司对</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年第三季度(3Q25)在FD/QC领域投资额度的更新指引</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。管理层对投资规模和时间表的表态将是关键催化剂,可能导致市场对3Q25盈利预期的上调或下调(潜在盈利上行/下行风险)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">阿里巴巴云业务被看好</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:预计其云收入在F1Q(阿里巴巴财年第一季度,通常对应自然年4-6月,即2Q25)将加速增长至</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">同比+22%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。报告强调这应作为积极催化剂,支持阿里巴巴作为“中国最佳AI赋能者”的定位。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键公司业绩预测 (2Q25):</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">京东 (JD.O):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">非GAAP净利润 (Non-GAAP Net Profit):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;很可能低于市场预期(Very likely downside surprise)。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">原因:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;在食品配送和即时零售业务上的投资。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">拼多多 (PDD.O):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收入增长 (Revenue growth):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;符合预期(In-line)。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">非GAAP净利润 (Non-GAAP Net Profit):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;符合预期(In-line),但可能面临小幅下调风险(Modest revision lower)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">唯品会 (VIPS.N):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收入增长 (Revenue growth):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;符合预期(In-line)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">美团 (3690.HK):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心本地商业运营利润 (Core Local Commerce OP):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;极有可能低于市场预期(Very likely downside surprise),意味着更低的利润(Meaning lower)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><em><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">注:报告指出这些预测对市场共识EPS(每股收益)的影响是针对未来12个月的。</span></span></em></span></span></section><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值方法与风险分析:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告对美团、阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多和唯品会五家公司分别进行了详细的估值和风险分析,均采用</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">贴现现金流(DCF)模型</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">作为基础估值方法。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">美团 (3690.HK):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基础假设:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;WACC 12%, 永续增长率 3%。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;外卖市场份额上升伴随利润率改善;商户ARPU(每用户平均收入)进一步货币化;新业务投资见效。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;外卖和即时零售竞争加剧;亏损且资产重的新业务前景不明朗;宏观经济弱于预期;反垄断监管。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">阿里巴巴 (BABA.N):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基础假设:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;WACC 11%, 永续增长率 3%。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;核心电商货币化能力提升驱动盈利增长超预期;企业数字化加速推动云收入重新加速增长;强劲的AI需求驱动云收入。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;竞争加剧;再投资成本高于预期;后疫情复苏缓慢导致消费疲软;企业数字化步伐放缓;监管(互联网平台面临额外审查)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">京东 (JD.O):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基础假设:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;WACC 13%, 永续增长率 3%。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;运营杠杆带来利润率扩张快于预期;快消品电商和家电增长快于预期;成功渗透低线城市驱动用户增长。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;营销支出比预期更激进;消费情绪复苏慢于预期;电商领域非理性竞争可能回归。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">拼多多 (PDD.O):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基础假设:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;WACC 14%, 永续增长率 3%。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;用户增长快于预期(受即将到来的消费降级推动);Temu增长快于预期且单位经济效益优于预期;竞争缓和导致运营支出降低。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;竞争加剧抑制利润率改善;补贴常态化导致用户参与度下降;Temu增长慢于预期及海外监管风险。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">唯品会 (VIPS.N):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基础假设:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;WACC 14.0%, 永续增长率 3%, 对净现金应用20%的折扣。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;用户增长超预期;折扣服装零售市场稳步复苏;消费情绪和服装需求改善;服装公司去库存需求增加。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下行风险:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;活跃客户增长放缓;支出增加阻碍利润率扩张轨迹;竞争加剧挤压利润率;增长减速引发估值下调。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股票评级与历史:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告包含详细的股票评级(Overweight/O, Equal-weight/E, Underweight/U)和价格目标历史图表,展示了分析师对相关公司观点的演变。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键公司当前评级 (截至报告日期附近):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">阿里巴巴 (BABA.N):&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Overweight (O)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;(自 2025年2月24日)</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">京东 (JD.O):&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Equal-weight (E)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;(自 2021年8月4日)</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">美团 (3690.HK):&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Overweight (O)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;(自 2024年8月29日)</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">拼多多 (PDD.O):&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Overweight (O)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;(自 2023年3月2日)</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">唯品会 (VIPS.N):&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Equal-weight (E)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;(自 2022年2月24日)</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业观点:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;未明确给出整体行业观点(Attractive/In-Line/Cautious),但覆盖的公司中“增持”(O)占比相对较高。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="5"><li><span data-marker="5."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">重要披露与合规信息:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告包含大量标准化的法律、合规和利益冲突披露信息,这是投行研究报告的标准组成部分。主要内容包括:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">分析师认证:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;分析师Eddy Wang, CFA 和 Gary Yu 声明报告观点准确且无利益冲突。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">分析师持仓披露:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;分析师Kathy Zhuang持有美团和腾讯的股票。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利关系披露:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;披露了摩根士丹利在过去12个月内与多家覆盖公司(包括阿里巴巴、百度、京东、美团、拼多多等)存在的投资银行服务关系、做市关系、持股情况等。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股票评级定义与分布:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;详细解释了O/E/U评级的含义(基于相对行业表现的预期),并提供了全球股票评级的分布统计数据(截至2025年7月31日:O 40%, E 43%, U 16%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">免责声明:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;强调报告不构成个人投资建议,仅供参考,投资者应独立评估并咨询专业顾问。包含针对不同地区(如台湾、巴西、墨西哥、日本、澳大利亚、印度、迪拜、卡塔尔、土耳其等)的特定监管披露要求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业覆盖列表:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;列出了报告覆盖的所有中国互联网及相关服务公司及其当前评级和最新股价。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总结:</span></span></strong></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利这份报告的核心观点是,市场已预期到中国主要电商平台(阿里、京东、美团)因在即时零售和外卖领域持续投入而导致2Q25利润率承压。真正的焦点在于它们对3Q25投资计划的指引,这将决定市场对未来盈利预期的调整方向。报告看好阿里云的增长前景(+22% YoY)。具体公司层面,预计京东和美团2Q25利润可能低于预期,拼多多和唯品会收入增长符合预期。报告详细分析了各公司(美团、阿里、京东、拼多多、唯品会)的估值基础(DCF模型及关键假设)和主要的上行/下行风险。报告还包含了必要的合规披露、评级历史及行业覆盖列表。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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