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放出来的水都去哪了?

发布于 2023-04-11

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inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;text-align: right;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼</span></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">最近几年,时常看到类似的新闻:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2月末,广义货币(M2)余额275.5万亿元,同比增长</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>12.9%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2月末,本外币存款余额274.34万亿元,同比增长</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">11.8%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2月末,本外币贷款余额226.7万亿元,同比增长</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">10.8%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2023年一季度的社融增量12.06万亿,同比多增1.77万亿;其中,3月社融增量</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">4.65万亿</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">增速角度</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">看,都是高于10%的速度,远超过2022年GDP3%,收入2.9%的增速;</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">增量角度</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">看,仅3月单月的社融增量,假设用人均测算,就高达</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">3321元/人</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,约等于2022年全国人均月可支配收入</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">3073元/人</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">图1:几组宏观数据的比较</span></strong><shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="text-indent: 0em;"><stroke joinstyle="miter"></stroke><formulas><f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></f><f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></f><f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></f><f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></f><f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></f></formulas><path extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" connecttype="rect"></path><lock aspectratio="t"></lock></shapetype><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f" style="text-indent: 0em;"><imagedata title="image1" croptop="10394f"></imagedata></shape><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="237" data-ratio="0.5138888888888888" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzwlialdacichVaoia80m9anGbAtxxibBeribfic7Yt0Qfaicn6gjxV1ic2zF5rsPeJm0p4O65GVGW1mHI2yA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-indent: 0em;width: 546px;height: 281px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过直观的对比,可以发现:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">货币总量增速(M2)是我们经济及收入增速的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">3倍+</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">人均社融规模几乎等于收入,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">赚多少借多少</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">但我们依然感到很缺钱!</span></strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">企业缺钱暴雷、居民没钱消费、政府城投负债累累。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 20px;"><strong>那钱去哪了呢?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">很多人说在银行空转,我们尝试着看看细节数据,是否有新的发现。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">01</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-decoration: none;font-size: 24px;"><strong>存款多了</strong><strong>,负债更多了</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">M2与社会融资规模分别代表了实体部门的资产和负债</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,是一个硬币的两面。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">反之,M2是金融体系的负债,社融是资产。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">M2,即货币供应总量,主要指的是流动中的现金+各项存款,包括个人、企业、政府等相关部门,对实体部门来说,是资产端。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">M2越高,说明实体部门整体资产规模越大;</span></strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">社融越高,说明实体部门整体负债规模越大。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong>图2:疫情以来社融与M2的变化</strong></span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="307" data-ratio="0.562037037037037" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzwlialdacichVaoia80m9anGb4Sh0AmlrgyH6epiaxaC8b83kvt74KldibqS8E14PISJ0QLjBgkKJARDw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;width: 546px;height: 307px;"></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过上图,我们可以看到:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">实体部门负债:社融从256万亿增加至354万亿,增量为97.6万亿,疫情以来全国人均负债多了</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">6.97万/人</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">实体部门资产:M2从202万亿增加至275万亿,增量为73.2万亿,疫情以来全国人均存款多了</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">5.23万/人</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">结论就是:存款多了,负债更多了。</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 20px;"><strong>水不是送的,而是借的。</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们国家的货币投放方式主要还是依靠信贷,并没有跟欧美一样直接发钱,引发通胀等手段。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">到底钱多还是钱少了?得看资产负债关系及财富净值。</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从资产负债来看,简单用社融/M2看比值关系,可以看到2019年为126%,然后进入扩表周期。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2021年达到最高131%,2022年略有下降,当前为128%,即平均下来</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">当前实体部门负债比资产多28%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,2019-2022年负债提高了3个基点。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图3:实体部门负债/资产的变化</span></strong><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="text-indent: 0em;"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="283" data-ratio="0.5194444444444445" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzwlialdacichVaoia80m9anGbqqFglKlUcibpNXZ5ZiaO5iaTolO0w3aQpsZRDXibgo2WibWH4Jm0Hvut9ew/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-indent: 0em;width: 546px;height: 283px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">从财富净值来看</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,用M2-社融,可以看到2019年为-45万亿,然后进入持续扩张周期。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2021年达到最高68.4万亿,2022年略有下降,当前为78.4万亿,即总体上</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">实体部门欠金融部门78.4万亿</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,4年累计负债增加24万亿。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图4:实体部门M2-社融的变化</span></strong></span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="302" data-ratio="0.5546296296296296" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzwlialdacichVaoia80m9anGb1P1A8QZ2LMS2b7q1wVPrIFtS3R7symdWJCzseZ0gBLNkJNbl58oukQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-indent: 0em;width: 546px;height: 303px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">看到这里,应该很清楚了,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">放出来的水,基本都是负债,实体部门财富净值是下降的。</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">那接下来,我们看下到底</span><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">是什么负债增加了那么多?</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">02</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;"><strong>集体部门多、居民部门少</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们还是选用2个重要的时间节点数据进行对比,2019年12月、2023年1月/2月。近3年多社融增量为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">102.56万亿</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。其中:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">人民币贷款68.44万亿,占比66.7%</span></section></li><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">政府债券23.68万亿,占比23.1%</span></strong></span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">企业债券7.74万亿,占比7.5%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其他部分基本低于5%,其中信托贷款大幅减少3.7万亿</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong>表1:社融增量的结构</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="246" data-ratio="0.45" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzwlialdacichVaoia80m9anGbVzwFkibg9ictv4tbluZNmjE5eMucJGmheJDria26licn15ddE95sKkhdqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 547px;height: 246px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以看到,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">政府企业发债占了近30%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,人民币贷款占据了3分之2,具体再看下贷款的结构:</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">表2:贷款增量的结构</span></strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="292" data-ratio="0.5342592592592592" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzwlialdacichVaoia80m9anGbc891XCYSRzahESBLls5qcC4ibGpLI8EEdaKtePThVegRDwic85CncGag/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: auto;" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">居民中长期消费贷</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">(通常被认为是房贷)增加13万亿,占总贷款比例19.6%,为近三年商品房销售额的26.6%,如果按照三年累计销售额48.8万亿,首付五成来看,会有24.4万亿贷款,当前只有一半左右。<strong>可见提前还贷的还真不少,或者近3年消费预期减弱,买房的人首付比例提高了。</strong></span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">企业政府短期贷款7.6万亿,占比11.5%,这块主要是维持现金流运营为主;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">企业政府中长期贷款32.5万亿,占比49.1%</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,这块大概率是中长期的一些战略投资及基建科研等。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">企业政府票据融资4.8万亿,占比7.2%;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其他部分基本低于5%,其中</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>居民短期消费贷为负增长</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,减少了0.2万亿。</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,贷款端,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">政府企业还是占据主导地位,占比高达68.9%,而不是居民</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">暂时没有看到中国人民银行等官方机构公布企业、政府机关团队的细分数据,不然可以看看两个部门的差异,企业负债情况如何,政府赤字如何。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接下来我们看下,</span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">企业政府单位同居民部门的负债变化差异</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">03&nbsp;</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;"><strong>一半缩表、一半扩表</strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">为了进行对比与比较,我们同步把口罩前4年的数据放上。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>口罩后</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,确实跟上面的数据非常吻合。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">企业政府端口在持续地扩表</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:负债率从2020年初的107%到目前的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">131%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>而居民部门在持续地缩表</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:负债率从2020年初的67%到目前的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">59%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,特别是2022年呈现快速下滑的趋势。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>口罩前</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,呈现出鲜明的反差:</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">居民部门在持续地扩表</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:负债率从2016年初的49%到2020年初的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">67%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">而政府企业部门相对稳定</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:负债率从2016年初的104%到2020年的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">107%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,其中在2016-2017年呈现出一定的下滑的趋势。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"> &nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong> &nbsp;图五:居民与企业单位负债率的变化</strong></span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="296" data-ratio="0.5416666666666666" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzwlialdacichVaoia80m9anGbMAXXMCua8QqAvQSicYGG3dSjyPicibLgZwwRibdKEelWO1VTH1PdianmeWQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 547px;height: 296px;" /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>关于</strong><strong>企业政府部门的缩表/扩表问题</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:是个周期性的规律,从这个角度看,当前整体是个产能扩张周期。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">也许是政府5G新基建、企业新能源、卡脖子的芯片制造、或是控制疾病的创新药物研究等等,核心需要考量的是</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">产能增加收益能否覆盖资本利息</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">例如,上周对于房地产企业估值的话题讨论,如果未来2-3年,行业能维持7%-8%的净利率,那央企国企目前4%的融资是有效的,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">资本扩张的可以增加收益</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,龙头企业3-5倍涨幅不敢说,倍增还是有可能的。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>关于居民资产负债表修复问题</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,很多人认为是个短期性的触底,放开经济回暖后会快速反弹。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我认为这概率还是很低,疤痕效益大概率会持续3-5年,大规模负债消费、买房这些事情概率不大。关于这点,我们可以把时间周期拉长看看,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">当拐点出现后,修复并非一朝一夕</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin: 32px 16px 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">最后小结下本文的主要内容:</span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>过去几年,钱主要流向的是实体部门负债端,而非资产端,</strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>负债扩张大于资产沉淀</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>。</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>这种情况下,如何增加实体经济的收益,变负债为资产,提高国家整体的财富净值,是值得关注的问题,同时,还需要</strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>加强资产负债和风险管理</strong></span><strong>。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>当前,企业政府正处于大规模的扩表,而居民部门仍在持续紧缩。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>中国的实体经济主要依靠</strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>政府和企业的融资</strong></span><strong>来维持运营,而居民部门的消费动力较弱,这对实体经济的长期发展可能会带来不利影响,</strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>扩大内需</strong></span><strong>仍是核心。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 17px;"><strong>提振住房消费的信心、维持汽车消费的景气度是两大关键。</strong></span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 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