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政策暖风频吹,地产板块止跌回稳?

发布于 2025-09-17

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心观点:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;中国房地产行业在经历“十四五”期间的深度调整后,正进入由城镇化增速放缓、供需关系逆转驱动的“发展新模式”阶段。“十五五”期间,行业将聚焦于构建“人房地钱”新联动机制、全生命周期管理、</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预售制度改革及住房供应双轨制,头部房企和优质存量运营商有望迎来估值修复。</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、 “十四五”市场回顾:政策放松,基本面承压 (2021-2025H1)</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策演变:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">路径:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;经历了“收紧(2021)-&gt; 放松(2022起)-&gt; 加大支持(2023.7后)-&gt; 强力刺激(2024)”的周期。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键节点:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2022年:重心转向“保交楼”、保持平稳。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2023年7月政治局会议:首次明确提出“房地产供求关系发生重大变化”,定调政策优化。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2024年:力度空前(取消全国房贷利率下限、统一首付比例15%、公积金利率下调、首提“促进止跌回稳”)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">特点:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;持续降门槛、促需求、稳市场。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基本面表现:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">销售:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2021年见顶后逐年下滑(2024年销售面积9.7亿方,2025H1为4.6亿方)。2025H1销售面积仅为2020年同期的66%。房价基本稳定在9600元/平米左右。</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">期现结构逆转:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2021年10月起,现房销售表现持续优于期房(反映购房信心、供应结构变化),差距在2024年11月后收窄。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359252" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG7b5xtYRcMJhvb7OX98OSJYQD9F1tInZ8hUMvUJPk4XR87qBSzoHj4eGxruIhYOredBjkN5V08yxA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">库存:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;压力显著抬升。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">广义库存(待售+在建):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;截至2025年6月,全国商品房待售面积7.7亿方(高于2016年高位),去化周期24.36个月(远高于2016-2020年水平)。28个重点城市平均去化周期21.61个月。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">狭义库存(已竣工待售):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;去化周期亦处于高位。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">投资与开工:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新开工:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2021年后断崖式下跌(2024年7.39亿方,较2020年降67%;2025H1 3.04亿方,较2020年同期降68.87%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359253" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG7b5xtYRcMJhvb7OX98OSJYTHavsAjP2QDOibne4GGBJ15Vqc1fQ7KFKt9sbdBP8F6piaJw9C7ZkHkQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">竣工:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2023年受“保交楼”推动表现较好,2024年波动,2025H1竣工面积2.26亿方(较2020年同期降22.26%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发投资:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2021年见顶后逐年下降(2025H1累计值4.67万亿,较2020年同期降25.68%)。</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></strong></span></span></li><li><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结构变化:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;土地购置占比持续提升(接近40%),建安投资占比降至56%以内(反映拿地意愿边际修复,开工意愿弱)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359254" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG7b5xtYRcMJhvb7OX98OSJYfl5h8o5u2SH6dZwiaQRvS87XuQfJcDiaD9qqib6DDVpuA43ibiaKtZv38cg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">土地市场:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成交:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;百城土地成交建面与金额自2023年起显著下滑(2025H1建面较2020年同期降39.14%,金额降60.83%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359255" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG7b5xtYRcMJhvb7OX98OSJYuTqj2P69oONqzudUXAJq9JU8ia8oy6OAu9Z8v3ruvicwxXZZKU9hLzjg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">溢价率:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2021-2023年维持低位,2024年下半年起各能级城市溢价率开始修复(2025年6月:一线5.43%、二线8.32%、三线2.62%),一线领先。</span></span></span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359256" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG7b5xtYRcMJhvb7OX98OSJYw3wALIzen3bGP5ibn9iaE2OsiaODZcs0kqojd0hMs4METEZjMlAficbJBw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房企盈利:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;头部房企毛利率普遍低于2016-2020年,2024年15家头部房企调整后毛利率均低于20%(4家不足10%),12家较2023年下滑,整体仍处筑底阶段。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、 “十五五”展望:地产发展新模式</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新模式发展背景:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">城镇化进入新阶段:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2024年城镇化率达67%(统计局口径),近十年提升11.25个百分点。参考国际经验,城镇化率突破70%后增速将边际放缓(韩国由60%到70%用7年,70%到80%用15年)。</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心影响:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;由城镇化快速推进带来的刚性住房需求趋于稳定。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新模式核心要素:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">要素配置:“人房地钱”新联动机制</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">转变:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;从“以地定房、以房定人” -&gt;&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">“以人定房、以房定地、以房定钱”</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">内涵:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以人定房:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;根据人口居住需求(刚性、改善)供应住房。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以房定地:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;根据住房建设与消化需求调节土地供应(如自然资源部2024年4月政策:去化周期&gt;36个月城市暂停供地)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以房定钱:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;根据住房类型(保障房、商品房等)匹配价格与金融支持(贷款额度、利率)。金融机构对房地产敞口(贷款余额占比)或持续维持低位(2025Q2为19.86%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">管理模式:全生命周期综合管理</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发类:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;覆盖“拿地-建造-销售(新房/二手房)-交付-维护(物管/装修)”全链条。</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></strong></span></span></li><li><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">趋势:</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502359257" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/zd226QNNqG7b5xtYRcMJhvb7OX98OSJYfia8aB2Rj0Vv1RNrmADoIqPQzRibP4ZHCkqN49D35fffOAS69HklUfjw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中介(贝壳、我爱我家)在新房销售中角色增强(渠道、代理)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">存量房市场重要性提升(2023年1-11月全国二手房成交占比37%,高能级城市更高;美国占比86%)。截至2020年城镇存量住房约4.66亿套(466亿平米)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">物业管理需求扩大,尤其老旧小区(2000年前建成住房面积占比约27.56%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">运营类(租赁):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;聚焦“建成-招租(B/C端)-运营-维护”。保障性租赁住房是重点(截至2024年9月全国已筹建712万套,完成“十四五”目标900万套的79.11%)。头部房企租赁品牌(泊寓、冠寓等</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">)表现稳健(出租率&gt;90%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全周期模式(如易商):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;“前期拿地共建 -&gt; 中期运营 -&gt; 后期REITs上市+持续管理”。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基础制度:预售制度改革</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">背景:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;高周转模式终结,去化压力大导致预售被动转向“现房”销售。房企经营杠杆下降,转向利润和品质导向。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">改革方向:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">提高预售门槛:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;如要求封顶、完成80%进度、毛坯竣工(精装房)等。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">减缓预售资金存入速度/加强监管:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;按工程进度拨付资金,规定竣工前入账比例上限。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">引入第三方监管:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;参考香港模式,由无利益关联方(律师等)监管资金划拨,提高违规成本。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;平衡开发商资金需求与购房者权益保障,降低烂尾风险。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">住房供应:刚性需求与改善需求结合</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">双轨制:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场化供应(改善需求):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;聚焦“好房子”。写入2025年政府工作报告,住建部发布《住宅项目规范》提升标准(层高≥3米、4层以上设电梯等)。头部房企(保利、万科、招商蛇口、中海、华润置地、绿城)积极布局,强调产</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">品力。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政府主导(刚性需求):</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;加大保障性住房(配售型、配租型)建设和供给(如深圳、广州、西安、杭州已开工)。多地探索收购商品房转保障房(如杭州)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">“7090”政策调整:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;深圳等地已取消,市场化供地更匹配改善需求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、 投资建议</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业展望:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;行业进入稳定发展新阶段,新模式构建下估值有望整体修复(β机会)。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">看好逻辑:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;头部房企凭借低融资成本、核心区域高市占率优势实现运营改善。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">重点推荐:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;招商蛇口、保利发展、滨江集团、新城控股、龙湖集团。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">存量运营:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;华润万象生活(商业+物管)、招商积余(物管)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">建议关注:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">优质开发:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;绿城中国、华润置地、中国海外发展。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">优质物管:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;绿城服务。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">优质商业:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;恒隆地产。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">代建龙头:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;绿城管理控股。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中介龙头:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;贝壳-W、我爱我家。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总结:</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告认为中国房地产行业已进入由“增量扩张”转向“存量提质”的新发展阶段。“十五五”的核心任务是构建以“人”的需求为核心、供需动态平衡、覆盖房屋全生命周期、市场与保障并重的新发展模式。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br 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