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数据发现 | 四房产品更容易实现差异化的优势

发布于 2023-03-14

<p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">///</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">近年来,房地产市场出现了一些令人惊讶的变化,尤其是针对户型面积的变化。房地产市场的变化不仅仅反映了房地产行业的发展,更反映了我们社会的一些问题。本文将分析一些数据,来解读这些变化。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">· 前言 ·</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这次的数据主要是一些关于一手房的数据,我们主要会看户型面积和房型结构。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果你做宏观研究、大的人口研究,你可能会认为应该是这么一个状态,但真正当数据呈现的时候,还是蛮惊讶的。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这些变化可能会挑战到大家的一些想法,特别是你们的领导或者老板,可能听完这个之后会很难接受。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">·&nbsp;数据分析&nbsp;·</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">1.</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>中国房地产市场概述</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.128158844765343" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gd23uPa3ia9yoicuIhibqrqMm9yPF8C51uoVCW20yicx9ETSl9G6uv6c4stg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 625.28px;text-align: left;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" />对于中国房地产市场来说,面积是一个重要的指标。根据我们的数据,<strong>80到130<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>的房屋面积销售量独占鳌头,占总销售量的比例达到了50%以上。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这一点在2019年到2022年都没有发生变化。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">然而,如果我们结合时间维度来看销售量的变化,我们可以看到一些有趣的现象。&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.9512635379061372" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdlJbXkoXUJZCXnHtSWia9icpsncr5SEdqyQ0oJLelxPSOeicTFnu6D10jg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 526.67px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" />在2019年,80到130<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>的房屋销售量位列榜首,占总销售量的比例超过50%。这一趋势在2020年仍然延续,但90到130<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>的房屋销售量有所增加。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.9494584837545126" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdYNVvLwCXICWnU7nU9aRmt3DasFpRKXVuHZibqrWNtOicMsFlnib94QRng/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 526.01px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" />到了2020年到2021年的时候,反而是<strong>90-160<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>以下的面积占比在减少</strong>,除了中间100-110<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>的面积占比增长,更多的增长来自于两端,60到90<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>以及160<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>以上;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.9566787003610109" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdTIKfn3u0lwg6n5Uuw8ET1EZsgzAdVmX2MspJdvzPNmicibaZOwmL0ibZA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 529.61px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;">到了2022年,相比2021年的时候,70-120㎡的占比还是在下降</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,如果这真的是一个中期趋势的话,那么意味着有一些库存是会变成死库存。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">2.</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">不同城市的房地产市场趋势</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们还将数据按照城市的不同等级进行了分析,发现——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5613718411552346" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gd5y6wq6q63uSdwqAK3R2fbwesh1W3qXNC63W1TzJGxsxGicSJ8pMm08w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 311.47px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">在一线城市里面,整个90<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>以下占比很明显下降,增长比较多的是100-110平米的面积。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">在二线城市里面,120<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>以下的都是负增长,140-150<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>的占比比较多。在这里你可以看到说,在二线城市,130<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>以上增长比较多。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们可以理解为90㎡以下是满足基础居住的,90-140㎡是中间的一个过渡状态,140㎡以上的相对来讲就偏改善一点。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一线城市像欧美以中产为主的市场,刚需人群倾向于二手房,有实力购房的人群更倾向于100<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>左右的;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">二线城市更像前些年的一线城市,刚需客群还有实力买面积较小的新房,但中国社会人口总数在下降,而且老龄化加剧,所以刚需市场份额还是在萎缩;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从一线到五线,改善需求总体是在上升的,未来地产项目需要跟上市场变化,从而更容易实现差异化的优势。同时,不同城市的房地产市场存在差异,对于不同城市的房地产市场,我们需要更加细致地分析。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">总的来说,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>现在在一二线城市更适合做改善型产品</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">3.</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">全国户型套均面积变化</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们再把这些数据放到全国的各个城市去看。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7689530685920578" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdTvDpXNmyJZe3nEVfvuh3tbSTd3npYYIhic06qcF5hcK450h5uyKOlqg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:425.80999755859375px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.260948905109489" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdmEN7UCwFtBm3OXd2tP0pWtH8iaaQwZ12JMdDOnU6tC0woKpoAT6Bicgg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="548" style="height: 691.27px;white-space: normal;width: 548.06px;" />像阳泉2022年套均面积143<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>,可能是因为这是一个房价很低的地方。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">但同时,像杭州这种房价并不低的地方,套均面积去到123<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>。意味着杭州房价可能还有上升的空间。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.723826714801444" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdecChLwkpa1lgWzMMfiamXJHxQicMZVqU3qGoDDAzbDVoibPguyuZK2hcA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 400.67px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.2129963898916967" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gd6rncfZIJXR8LA5zvHfNbRZ13e7vtiaAMDM3gichXlhrP9PUBicup4vJ2A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 672.48px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">90<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>以下小户型占比提升多的是一些城市化水平稍微弱一点。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6949458483754513" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gd85LSBqTia3v93JbAwHicdX5umkYicrafdngS8sseotUIBHW395HpntNFw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 384.54px;width: 553.74px;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gduiaXoYWayvdhEztt49avVqBQ7UdWkSNC4gl1sI2g38QtsHoO7YKIKyw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 553.74px;width: 553.74px;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">90-140<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>中户型提升快的城市,有出现一些一二线城市,比如北京、上海、深圳、厦门、重庆等。</span></section><p><br /></p></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.723826714801444" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdqFCdviaCyFPUFkRicE3NFDlxVNdAxJ73OJ5EPrJ7YHIfkDE1NBHk0qjA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 401.47px;width: 553.74px;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.0631768953068592" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdSAFeIHGNLQbZfSKAsvhtiandwky49xN8iaPl8LDOYRpKkVR2ZSPoa6eg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 589.14px;width: 553.74px;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">140<span style="font-size: 16px;">㎡</span>大户型占比提升比较大的主要是一些省会城市、强二线城市、强三线城市,比如南京、杭州、济南、常州、苏州等。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">4.</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">全国户型房型变化</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.8700361010830325" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdAaJyZkw8ibNdogtpj59cn5H5eD2bepLZLbUdmdgT1ZVBEGIBylBqmZw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 482.41px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" />从房型来看,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>全国三房是主流,同时也是竞争红海,其次为四房</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<br /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.9404332129963899" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdM4rXvGXGLclMnia0ZOAJ0MW3nWn9MVfQibqNje5BdyLzI2SW0DicfmCEA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 520.74px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" />从趋势上看,二三房占比下降,四房占比提升,意味着</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>四房、五房在市场上是比较有优势的,尤其是四房。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"> <img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4711191335740072" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gd5tydGTTzkSlz5qgY5z7TIWxXwaayT46KT7t8xHAZvPeFaFE7viaJZpg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 261.14px;white-space: normal;width: 553.74px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">分城市</span>线<span style="font-size: 16px;">看变化:</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;">一线、二线、三线城市主流提升为四房;四线主要是二房;五线为三房。</strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7003610108303249" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdu51E2ibrSicFFicwTuwemynzYtopibYxIfsFEezCbUt48fJMqibbw9ibJL0A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="font-size: 16px;height: 388.41px;width: 553.74px;" /><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.0541516245487366" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gd7593GgoLzwmMqaWC175a4XnzmgHlpz9fKBBJ4mz5z0HbaZ2pSyZ01g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="font-size: 16px;height: 583.94px;width: 553.74px;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2房户型占比提升快的城市,基本上是一些小城镇</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7021660649819494" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gd3vIpV7BSzsou7fn8WqGNAKKZRWVPqYm8fmnZOK2Me0AKauks51yibRQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 389.14px;width: 553.74px;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.236462093862816" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdlCQMQriaE9XJhNb010icXqicTcfibMwlwI59K3SSjf6G8uK4iaibyfHJrP1g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 685.21px;width: 553.74px;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3房户型占比提升快的城市,深圳、上海等</span></section><p><br /></p></li></ul><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7003610108303249" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdKnu106zFNANHKjD1qpO7tic6ibo4iaia7Na3mf4Jsv8s0p8DyG2hWX4JNg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 387.94px;width: 553.74px;" /><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.1768953068592058" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6BpLMIQcSxZXGiaKoT2p7gdzfevApvNtCudmDuJp1WhpzvfKeG2nqJ1ONnWBhia62WrntVlLTZroVg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="height: 652.07px;width: 553.66px;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4房户型占比提升快的城市,很多省会城市、经济强市、靠近一线城市包括一些一些城市,比如深圳、杭州、南京、无锡、合肥等。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 50px;">5.</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>未来发展趋势</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在未来的房地产市场中,随着中国社会人口总数的下降和老龄化的加剧,刚需市场份额还是在萎缩,开发商需要更加细致地分析不同城市的房地产市场,并跟上市场变化,从而实现差异化的优势。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在不同城市的房地产市场中,现在更适合开发改善型产品。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">此外,在户型面积的变化方面,80到130㎡的房屋销售量仍旧居高不下,但在不同城市和时间纬度下,销售量的变化存在差异,开发商需要根据市场变化调整产品定位,抓住市场机遇。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-<span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-color: 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