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数据工具系列(二)如何准确的表达价格

发布于 2022-11-08

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!important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 本文共1127字 」</span></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.6em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 530px;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgb(51, 51, 51);">如果有领导或者朋友问</span><strong>最近某某城市市场咋样?房价跌的多吗?</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们熟知的表达方式有:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1.国家统计局每月公布的价格指数。</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="1.1420118343195267" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx2H935vicHgSezsGgaUFunT11T4Z6nsDSdS1ibmibuOAuS3OoWAqcUJn7678hPTYS7b0m9ibVbQRbS7w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="676" style="width: 579px;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">但指数的差异,取决于</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>基数时间点</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 16px;">,环比、同比、定基</span></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">等。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">不同基数点,差异巨大</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">比如越南GDP第三季度大涨13.6%,看似很吓人,实则是因为去年三季度发生了疫情,导致经济停滞,基数低而已,所以存在很多</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>数字游戏</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.统计房价变化趋势图。</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="399" data-ratio="0.696911196911197" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx2H935vicHgSezsGgaUFunTSPa2JvKm1yBE2WXSOf8QtubyjZmzm7MwkakdjiahbBtTlRVy7zWqMXw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1036" style="width: 546px;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这个可以比较直观的体现出这个城市的房价变化情况,但</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">脱</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>离了市场大环境的变化</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,并无法获知内生真实性。因此需要分析跟其他城市比较,它的涨跌幅如何。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">价格,即是市场的收益来源,也是城市竞争力的体现。它通常有四个字描述:</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>高、低、快、慢</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">但<strong>房价高低如何定义?涨幅5%到底是快还是慢呢?</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们需要找到参考标准:</span><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">市场均值</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">不同标准,结论不同,就无法有效沟通,即</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>相对值的意义大于绝对值</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这里举3个例子:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 17px;"><strong>Example1</strong></span></em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 17px;"><strong>:收入高低的两个评判标准</strong></span></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1.微观法:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">相对同龄人或者周边同事的情况;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.宏观法:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">同通胀率进行比较,这才是真实的购买力。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIx2H935vicHgSezsGgaUFunTn9AneyEmx8wouYxxKPZwkkoic8AjBL0Bg11AjJ0dUtdm2kDbX5ibribqg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="16.112561174551388" data-cropx2="564.8874388254486" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="352.2124352331606" data-ratio="0.6423357664233577" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIx2H935vicHgSezsGgaUFunTpxyYF7X98bszU3icjCKnRibM4HbAiblnjxDXLzuPucxibQyA8TO8QaN9qA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="548" style="width: 578px;height: 350px;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">货币其实只是一个计价符号,出现目前美国8%大通胀的情形下,收入涨8%其实等于没涨;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而相反如果出现8%的通缩,收入不变也是涨,只是大家不太习惯或者不太接受表面上的“数值减少”而已。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 17px;"><strong>Example2</strong></span></em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 17px;"><strong>:股价涨跌的两个评判标准</strong></span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1.绝对表现:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">从100到101就涨了1%;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.相对表现:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果大盘从3000点涨到了3300点,那就是跑输9%。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.6313725490196078" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIx2H935vicHgSezsGgaUFunTQeMjUJ5HeBCKicV6dSeJNnzoYYPupwUlSW4tTpricjL2pkwz1sSib2zKw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1020" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,衡量基金经理的能力一般是看是否有跑赢大盘。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 17px;"><strong>Example3</strong></span></em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 17px;"><strong>:成绩好差的两个评判标准</strong></span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1.分数的高低:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">80分优秀、60分及格;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.排名的先后:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">前10名、后10名。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-align: left;">我们知道高考北大清华录取是看排名,不是分数,因为试卷有</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-align: left;">难易之分,竞技赛场更是如此。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-align: left;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">回到主题:</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>如何评估价格走势?</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通常有两个维度:</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>自己PK自己</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">、</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>自己PK别人</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自己PK自己:可以用</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>标准差</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">来体现,也可以用历史百分位的方式。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自己PK别人:可以用</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">均值倍数</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">来体现。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以中山房价为例:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">历史平均水平是全国均值的1.05倍,虽然近4年绝对房价变化不大,但均值倍数持续下行,从1.34下降至0.98,处于历史均值与1倍标准(下)差之间。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="251" data-ratio="0.5559588626739262" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx2H935vicHgSezsGgaUFunTLPuZT9C4pSQRRWbV98eMv7fwpdA4hFghJJpxXsJib8UpsWyznnoz7lQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1653" style="width: 546px;height: 304px;"></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体我们如果拉长到10年,中山的价格可以分为2个大周期5个小周期,2012-2018年上行期、2019-2022年下行期。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体来看:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2012-2016年</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">为48个月的波动期,价格微涨;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2016-2018年</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">为32个月的大涨期,大幅跑赢大市,顶部价格为全国均值1.34倍;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2019-2020年</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">为23个月的大跌期,大幅跑输大市;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020-2021年尾</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">27个月的调整期,小幅上行后又下行;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2022年</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">为加速下跌起,跌的比全国还快,价格接近10年历史地位为0.98。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section></li></ul><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这样可以很清楚地看出,历史上中山是个</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>长周期+波段型</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">的市场。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">10年周期看,只有17-18年2个年份有吃肉行情,而且不能贪吃,需要快速离场,不然吃了还是会吐出来。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">回到2个研判的标准,具体的计算公式是:</span></section><section style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;">房价提升值&nbsp;</strong></span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;text-align: left;">=</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: 24px;">&nbsp;</strong><strong>&nbsp;<span style="cursor: pointer;"><mjx-container jax="SVG" role="presentation" tabindex="0" ctxtmenu_counter="160" style="" data-formula="\frac{城市历史每月的房价}{当月全国平均值}"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="13.576ex" height="3.447ex" role="img" focusable="false" viewbox="0 -1011.8 6000.6 1523.5" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.158ex;"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g data-mml-node="math"><g data-mml-node="mfrac"><g data-mml-node="mrow" transform="translate(220, 481.4) scale(0.707)"><g data-mml-node="mo"><text data-variant="normal" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">城</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(873.8, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">市</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(1747.5, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">历</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(2621.3, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">史</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(3495.1, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">每</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(4368.8, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">月</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(5242.6, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">的</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(6116.4, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">房</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(6990.1, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">价</text></g></g><g data-mml-node="mrow" transform="translate(837.8, -370.3) scale(0.707)"><g data-mml-node="mo"><text data-variant="normal" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">当</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(873.8, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">月</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(1747.5, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">全</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(2621.3, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">国</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(3495.1, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">平</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(4368.8, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">均</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(5242.6, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">值</text></g></g><rect width="5760.6" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></span></strong></span><strong>&nbsp;</strong></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以1可以理解为是全国平均水平,大于1就是比全国高、小于1就是比全国低。这样就可以定义不同时间周期、不同地域的房价情况。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">房价标准差&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;"><span style="text-align: left;">=</span></strong></span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>&nbsp;<span style="cursor: pointer;"><mjx-container jax="SVG" role="presentation" tabindex="0" ctxtmenu_counter="263" style="" data-formula="\sqrt{\frac{(历史每个月房价-平均值)^2}{该组个数}}"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20.518ex" height="5.566ex" role="img" focusable="false" viewbox="0 -1654.6 9068.7 2460" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.822ex;"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g data-mml-node="math"><g data-mml-node="msqrt"><g transform="translate(1020, 0)"><g data-mml-node="mfrac"><g data-mml-node="mrow" transform="translate(220, 516.8) scale(0.707)"><g data-mml-node="mo"><path data-c="28" d="M94 250Q94 319 104 381T127 488T164 576T202 643T244 695T277 729T302 750H315H319Q333 750 333 741Q333 738 316 720T275 667T226 581T184 443T167 250T184 58T225 -81T274 -167T316 -220T333 -241Q333 -250 318 -250H315H302L274 -226Q180 -141 137 -14T94 250Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mo" transform="translate(389, 0)"><text data-variant="normal" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">历</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(873.8, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">史</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(1747.5, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">每</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(2621.3, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" 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data-mml-node="msup" transform="translate(9904.7, 0)"><g data-mml-node="mo"><path data-c="29" d="M60 749L64 750Q69 750 74 750H86L114 726Q208 641 251 514T294 250Q294 182 284 119T261 12T224 -76T186 -143T145 -194T113 -227T90 -246Q87 -249 86 -250H74Q66 -250 63 -250T58 -247T55 -238Q56 -237 66 -225Q221 -64 221 250T66 725Q56 737 55 738Q55 746 60 749Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(389, 363) scale(0.833)"><path data-c="32" d="M109 429Q82 429 66 447T50 491Q50 562 103 614T235 666Q326 666 387 610T449 465Q449 422 429 383T381 315T301 241Q265 210 201 149L142 93L218 92Q375 92 385 97Q392 99 409 186V189H449V186Q448 183 436 95T421 3V0H50V19V31Q50 38 56 46T86 81Q115 113 136 137Q145 147 170 174T204 211T233 244T261 278T284 308T305 340T320 369T333 401T340 431T343 464Q343 527 309 573T212 619Q179 619 154 602T119 569T109 550Q109 549 114 549Q132 549 151 535T170 489Q170 464 154 447T109 429Z"></path></g></g></g><g data-mml-node="mrow" transform="translate(2788.7, -370.3) scale(0.707)"><g data-mml-node="mo"><text data-variant="normal" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">该</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(873.8, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">组</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(1747.5, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">个</text><text data-variant="normal" transform="translate(2621.3, 0) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">数</text></g></g><rect width="7808.7" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g></g><g data-mml-node="mo" transform="translate(0, 144.6)"><path data-c="221A" d="M424 -948Q422 -947 313 -434T202 80L170 31Q165 24 157 10Q137 -21 137 -21Q131 -16 124 -8L111 5L264 248L473 -720Q473 -717 727 359T983 1440Q989 1450 1001 1450Q1007 1450 1013 1445T1020 1433Q1020 1425 742 244T460 -941Q458 -950 439 -950H436Q424 -950 424 -948Z"></path></g><rect width="8048.7" height="60" x="1020" y="1534.6"></rect></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></span></strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在正态分布中,1个标准差之内所占比率为全部数值之68.2%,两个标准差之内的比率合起来为95.4%,当然也可以直接用百分位来体现当下节点的情况。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">基于这个原则,我们可以拉通很多城市进行对比研判,除了价格,规模也是如此。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>库存周期≠当下总库存/过去3个月的平均销量</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">用于比较的分子基数选择不同,结论可以是千差万别,市场本身就是波动的,3个月也好、6个月也罢都否认了市场周期。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们可以通过选择:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1个完整的周期月度平均表现,大部分城市是3年;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-align: justify;">基于需求的人均情况,是人均库</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">存面积。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;"><br /></section></li></ul><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>找到评判的标准,是给出结论的前提</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 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