新兴市场2025下半年展望：关税阴影下的增长放缓与投资机会

<h4 data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">一、韧性犹存的上半年，但减速已成定局</span></span></strong></h4><p><span leaf="">2025年上半年，新兴市场（EM）展现出超预期的韧性——尽管美国对华关税在4月大幅加码（部分商品税率超30%），EM整体GDP仍维持4.4%的年化增速（图1）。中国出口前移、金融条件宽松（如多国降息）以及AI芯片等科技出口激增（台湾地区出口同比+42%）成为主要支撑。但高盛警告：</span><strong><span leaf="">“减速已从预测变为现实”</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p><strong><span leaf="">关键矛盾点</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">中国供应过剩</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：PPI连续3年通缩，电动车、机械等产品价格比国际低30%-70%（图2），挤压其他EM出口商利润；</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">美国需求降温</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：关税前期的“抢出口”效应消退，叠加美联储加息滞后影响，预计2025Q4 EM增速将降至3.2%。</span></section></li></ul><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r12:"></span></p><section><em><span leaf="">（中国工业品价格普遍低于国际水平，尤其在电动车、机械等领域）</span></em></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;">二、关税“三分天下”，谁受伤最重？</span></span></strong></h4><p><span leaf="">美国新关税体系将全球划分为三个梯队：</span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">零关税区</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：北美盟友（墨西哥、加拿大），但需满足“本土附加值”条件；</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">重灾区（税率30%+）</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：中国、巴西及部分小经济体；</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r14:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">中间地带（税率10-20%）</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：印度、东南亚等，但印度因进口俄油面临额外25%惩罚性关税。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r16:"></span></p></section></li></ol><p><br /><em><span leaf="">（中国、巴西承受最高关税压力，北美和部分盟友豁免）</span></em></p><p><strong><span leaf="">最脆弱的经济体</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">小型出口国</span></strong><section><span leaf="">（如越南、泰国）：夹击于中美之间，既失去美国订单，又难敌中国低价竞争；</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r18:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">资源依赖国</span></strong><section><span leaf="">（如沙特）：能源出口虽免税，但油价疲软（高盛预测2026年布油跌至56美元）拖累收入。</span></section></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;">三、政策工具箱：降息潮与货币贬值</span></span></strong></h4><p><span leaf="">面对增长放缓和通胀回落（EM整体CPI从2024年底的10%降至2025Q4的6.3%），</span><strong><span leaf="">新兴市场央行已开启全球最大宽松周期</span></strong><span leaf="">（图4）：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">拉美</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：巴西政策利率高达15%，但通胀顽固（核心服务通胀6.7%），降息空间有限；</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1a:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">亚洲</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：泰国、韩国可能进一步降息，中国或“双降”（OMO利率+存款准备金率）；</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">中东欧</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：匈牙利、波兰等因通胀降温加速宽松。</span></section></li></ul><p><span leaf="">（2025年已有24个EM经济体降息，预计2026年政策利率中值降至4%）</span></p><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1e:"></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-imgfileid="100044419" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmEUhYvtc5LdZtY8fhvlkEMSC9QsXOBHTG0YISZHNEowWJteO88ibov13PteMmo7icUicMmSBk5lxI8Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" /></section><p><strong><span leaf="">汇率博弈</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">美元走弱</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：美联储9月或开启降息，叠加美国财政赤字高企，美元指数可能跌破91（当前99）；</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">EM货币分化</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：高息货币（巴西雷亚尔、南非兰特）仍有吸引力，但亚洲低息货币（人民币、韩元）需等待美联储明确转向。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1g:"></span></p></section></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;">四、投资策略：避险中寻找Alpha</span></span></strong></h4><p><span leaf="">高盛建议“</span><strong><span leaf="">超配EM资产</span></strong><span leaf="">”，但需精选赛道：</span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">股市</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：</span></section></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">中国A/H股</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：政策托底+估值低位，偏好媒体、消费服务、保险板块；</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">欧洲暴露标的</span></strong><section><span leaf="">（如波兰）优于美国暴露标的（如墨西哥）；</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1i:"></span></p></section></li></ul><li><strong><span leaf="">债市</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：</span></section></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">哥伦比亚3年期利率互换</span></strong><section><span leaf="">（Receive IBR）、菲律宾5年期本币债（汇率对冲）；</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1k:"></span></p></section></li></ul><li><strong><span leaf="">外汇</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：</span></section></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">做多人民币（CNY）、韩元（KRW），做空美元/埃及镑（EGP）、泰铢/韩元（THB/KRW）。</span></section></li></ul></ol><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1m:"></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-imgfileid="100044420" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmEUhYvtc5LdZtY8fhvlkEMnTmLDHAMv6iaDYLcXpB3ibIknulMGJ6EqzfCuMbgJbic86tP1Vicj4csvg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" /></section><section><em><span leaf="">（当前EM资产估值略高于长期均值，但仍有上行空间）</span></em></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;">五、风险预警：不可忽视的“黑天鹅”</span></span></strong></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">中国内需不振</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：若房地产拖累加剧或刺激政策延迟，全球供应链通缩压力放大；</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">地缘冲突</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：中东、俄乌局势升级可能推高油价，打断降息节奏；</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">美国大选变数</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：若特朗普连任，钢铁、半导体等追加关税或冲击EM科技链。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1o:"></span></p></section></li></ol><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;">结语：EM的“脆弱平衡”</span></span></strong></h4><p><span leaf="">新兴市场正处于**“增长放缓但资产不弱”**的微妙阶段——美联储宽松预期抵消了部分基本面恶化，而中国产能出清与政策博弈将成为下半年最大变量。投资者需在关税裂痕中寻找结构性机会，警惕“便宜但危险”的陷阱。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>