是结束，更是开始 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2023年03月07日 21时22分

<section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><br /></section><h2 style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 12px;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">///</span></strong></span></h2><h2 style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></h2><h2 style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">01</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></section><section style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">地产预判</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>（一）参考：房地产行业的暴雷过程，跟2018年中国股市创业板的暴雷有相似之处。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">现在总体来讲，整个房地产市场处于一个非常不利的状况。要如何去解决这个问题呢？</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">在2018年，中国创业板很多上市公司大股东把股份拿去质押，质押的资金又拿去投资，但很遗憾，很多投资都不是特别有利润，很多还失败了，叠加股票的大幅下跌，他们没有能力补充质押保证金，于是2018年4月份之后，创业板开始第二轮下跌。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.44375" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaUibRuLfT4jdoz37kaRq7Daib5u32LHqpibCtrb6dccicKdpy6Ze6ic7xgFQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">实际上，在此之前创业板已经跌了一轮，只是此前一轮比较温和，而那两轮暴跌，跟房地产2021年下半年至今的情况很像。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">在2021年下半年时，房地产市场发生了第一轮下跌，今年开始加速下跌。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">回顾2018年中国政府面对创业板危机的处理，很明确分三步走——</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em>第一步，先给贷款；</em></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em>第二步，考虑到债券对金融市场有扩散影响，开始托债券；</em></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em>最后才是通过地方政府成立纾困基金，由地方央企国企入市救股东。</em></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.58125" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiavLOhnR4mWDLIzIZMBjUJdEX0bWY63GztnbWz7obWdUfvibHkBzib0bbw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">再回顾最近这段时间，整个地产行业的政策，差不多也是这个节奏——</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">一开始先把贷款放松；</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">第二，对一些企业做所谓的中债增信；</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">第三，就是最近放出证监会允许房企可以股权融资的政策。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">第三支箭不是让开发商去买地、开发新楼盘，而是明确规定主要用来存量住房项目，主要解决存量问题。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5195007800312013" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaaM2erkOk55OicrV9kDIXjRJstwUDB1CXQNWmXHASBqvhiczmlLpQEIaA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="641" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">回过头来看，郭树清的两个发言还挺对的，他2021年发言强调房地产泡沫严重性，现在看，确实那时候房地产在高位。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">今年的发言强调房地产未来还有很大的发展空间，实际上是提醒各位，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>市场已经在底部，现在是很好的抄底机会</strong></span>。当然，可能大部分企业在这个时候已经没有抄底的能力。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6705882352941176" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piar6vcqgsrB7GMK8BxZ45oPV7CxYx0bSElydSqgadGBaZqtyiboR8EjFw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="680" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>（二）解读：证监会的政策核心是什么？还是保交付。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">2019年，我当时提出一个观点：目前中国房地产市场有一个很大的问题：开工速度非常快，但是竣工速度非常慢，“开工-竣工”剪刀差的敞口越来越大，这就形成了一个巨大的债务，政府有意愿去推动房企加快竣工，减少开工。所以，解决竣工问题依然是目前核心的问题，也即“保交付”。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">证监会政策的处理方式下，股东如何才能够被拯救？</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>我认为存量资产的保值、增值很重要，只有当企业的存量资产能够有明显增值</strong></span>，简单来说就是——涨价，企业才有能力去实现配资。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">同时，具体细则里的第五点，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>特地讲了积极发挥私募股权投资基金的作用</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">以前私募股权基金投资房地产是被明令禁止的，但在今天证监会发布的文件里，明确可以开展不动产私募投资基金试点，允许符合条件的私募股权基金管理人设立不动产私募投资基金。引入机构资金投资存量住宅和地产商业地产基础设施，促进房地产企业盘活经营性不动产，并探索新的方案模式。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">很多无法销售的非住宅资产，在这之前是被认为没有任何创造现金流能力的资产。但现在看，会有很多方式变现它。之前可能要试很多方式绕开监管做私募投资基金，现在官方明确表示合法，这是一个很好补充企业融资性现金流的渠道。因此，我对2023年行业的发展极其乐观。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">大家可以看这个图——</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="290" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5236886632825719" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaqTmQqW8W7A1jKM0URT98Ataiahia1UIwMmXCvnVUTGBiccmiaiabUnSZKkQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1182" style="width: 554px;height: 290px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">我认为，对照创业板的走势，现在房地产大概处在2018年11-12月份的状态，过完春节，就会形成一波上涨行情，后面会有数据讲解。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>只不过每一家房地产企业都需要问问自己，是否已经想好应对这一波上涨行情的策略？</strong></span></section><h1 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h1><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">02</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">全国市场</strong><br /></section><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">(一)典型国家房地产价格指数：</h3><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="439" data-backw="496" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PianxxpyoPvKR1ohHE7olia1dk2ByrJicsQxqYJukRDFibdJLfknRlwk1Q1w/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="26.72876151484135" data-cropx2="629.3408393039917" data-cropy1="58.09969599291159" data-cropy2="590.6802425946012" data-ratio="0.8853820598006644" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia68VOZzcJAoicBt3N8JPtnoXmQ0AsBz1z6NK0cd9ibOIHhl38QmHnAibQg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="602" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="243" data-backw="182" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PianxxpyoPvKR1ohHE7olia1dk2ByrJicsQxqYJukRDFibdJLfknRlwk1Q1w/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="745.6794871794871" data-cropx2="1141.3461538461538" data-cropy1="80.43772893772893" data-cropy2="610.8919413919414" data-ratio="1.3383838383838385" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piar6CichhaPSsZZTcY5eTWoPZzQVaLUF0tAFNIRnVSoUHvcjqyGiaa801g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="396" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表格1</span></section><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">(二)<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>全球疫情“货币政策放水”+“经济复苏-繁荣周期”，推动除中国外主要国家房价较快上行</strong></span>，截止至2022年2季度，美、加实际房价升幅较大。</h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">疫情以来，全球都在货币放水。看表格1，美国的房价增长了13.4%，而2022年中国的房价平均跌幅估计在10%左右，部分城市甚至可能达到20%。</h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br />在全球大放水、货币超发、流动性泛滥的情况下，中国房地产行业走出了下跌的独立行情。</h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">在其他国家上升百分之十几的状况下，最差的丹麦也才-3.8%，而中国大概跌了20%，这样的状态是否合理？</h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">所以，接下来，会不会由于货币流动性持续泛滥，进而带来2023年的房地产普涨？我认为是可以有所期待的，这也是我很乐观的原因。</h3><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">(三)2022年1-10月<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">商品房销售金额增速水平</span></strong>：自2016年开始，1-10月销售金额当期同比增速开始收窄，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2022年同比跌幅创下历史新低</strong></span></h3><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="302" data-backw="578" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaMSiaxqcn99B6ibwdFfagiccyUCfrrXxrfBScwDPpRtEmwqzsvuNpHc1VA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="110.76923076923076" data-cropy2="563.7362637362637" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.41944444444444445" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaicjoXPSkatOc9Uah6JwVw1lG23rB4EWjjibO2PfD7oWosSia9rsgN2zxA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 229px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">虽然1-10月份当期的同比跌幅已经达到历史新低，大家可以看到，从2001年到2021年总共20年的数据，今年到了最低点，甚至比2008年次贷危机的时候还低。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">现在很多指标跟当年美国次贷危机的时候非常相像，包括形成的路径和原因。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">美国2004-2006年有一波剧烈泡沫，2007年做了金融政策收紧，2008年的时候猝不及防崩盘。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">当时，中国和美国很多经济学家，包括证券分析师，对整个市场的分析结论跟今天中国大部分专家的分析结论基本一致——他们都认为美国的房地产高速增长时期已经结束，接下来要解决楼市平稳着陆的问题。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">而事实是，美国的房地产在2009年之后到现在持续上涨，而且房价又涨了一倍。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">所以，2023年中国开始会不会有一波房地产繁荣，我觉得不一定能跟美国一样凶猛，但我想提醒大家：用线性思维推导变化的时候，大概率会得出大家有共识的想象出来的未来，但它是不会出现的，也就是说，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>大家想象中的平稳应该不会出现，更可能出现的是报复性反弹。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">有个中欧教授提出一个对我很有启发的观点，他认为所有的经济增长动力来自于三个要素：第一个是投资，第二个是人才储备，第三个是技术创新，对于企业也是如此。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">第一，投资。现在很多房地产企业基本上没有拿地投资的能力，也意味着企业根本不可能增长，但是我们也不能把投资等同于买地，实际上，盘活企业的存量资产，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>让存量资产增值，也是投资的一种方式</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">第二，要加强人才储备。刚刚孙老师也讲了，如果是不好的人，要立刻清理掉的，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>重塑团队，也是投资的一种方式</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">第三，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>需要有一些技术创新</strong></span>。如果产品上面做绿建，做类似金茂的产品力，按照房地产期房的特点，企业可以走得更远。企业可以讲一些新技术的应用，因为有交付周期，当期对企业是有利的。之后新技术的磨合问题，可以在建造交付的过程中逐步解决。产品力提升和品牌打造，也是投资的一种方式。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>(四)商品房销售规模预测：预计2022年的市场整体容量规模会在14万亿附近，</strong></span>虽较去年有所回落，但未来预期市场容量依旧会保持稳中有升的趋势。</h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h3><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">2022年整体行业规模最乐观的状态是18万亿，现在11月份快结束了，因为疫情，最乐观的情况应该不会出现。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">按照近五年历史平均水平来看，可以预判今年行业规模可能会在14万亿，最差不低于13.6万亿，基本上是2016年-2017年的水平。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="305" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5269814502529511" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiadVf9X54CL6RguNOUBA5DA3CgnNuIzYLkJyMicpp0Sk9uAicxibhYeOBnA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1186" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>(五)商品房销售规模预测方法</strong></span></h3><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="245" data-backw="501" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="500" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="245" data-ratio="0.4894336432797971" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiatmKiav0JYVMKNCE8ibEtIVCm6WtFXoGiaZjGdPmKRic36x0wU8UY6kEamQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1183" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;word-break: break-all;"><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">行业销售规模的预测基本上跟两个因素相关：一个是经济增长，一个是货币供应。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">这也是为什么2020年疫情爆发以来，M2增长非常大，虽然经济有一定下滑，但是经济增长率并没有负增长。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section></td><td style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;word-break: break-all;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="295" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="297" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5413080895008606" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaNxhkegpqrCTkjvEbriaFfwiaqWsteicrt50nj2IRpbfVu2riatE7Aeha5A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1162" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">按照这样规模测算之后，2022年是14.1万亿，2023年是15.6万亿，2024年是16.6万亿，可以反映出这一波剧烈调整之后，房地产市场依然保持增长趋势。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">从历史数据变化趋势来看，每一次巨大的跌幅之后，第二年都会有一个巨大的涨幅反弹。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">所以，我并不认同明年行业规模在10万亿、12万亿或者14万亿。<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>如果是一个30%的反弹，明年依然有机会在16-17万亿。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">(六)房价增长—房价预测（全国）：<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>预期未来1年全国城市整体房价会以下降为主，但一二线城市有回升空间，分化也明显</strong></span>；</h3><h3 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br />区域上看，长三角多数城市价格增长跑输全国，中部区域城市及环京区域城市有机会跑赢全国。</h3><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td width="0.0" height="7.266777" style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;word-break: break-all;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="233" data-backw="232" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaeYWKBGZxur5jgbzUV68RNBCQW35h79FaliaEEQZkcVhRfRPwiciafic3FQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="43.64312267657993" data-cropx2="549.9033457249071" data-cropy1="106.92565055762081" data-cropy2="615.368029739777" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.0039525691699605" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiavtMEt7asUBtJSwSZOMLwoJjhUclDcOW6tm5ia2NR0o1vEGIa4INDD9g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="506" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: content-box !important;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section></td><td width="0.0" height="7.266777" style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="230" data-backw="281" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaeYWKBGZxur5jgbzUV68RNBCQW35h79FaliaEEQZkcVhRfRPwiciafic3FQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="556.8974358974359" data-cropx2="1161.098901098901" data-cropy1="94.6080586080586" data-cropy2="591.3003663003662" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8198347107438017" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiakFcjO7FBpdhjLgNicBpQ0n8BetcnAmI1cHicBP0HtpOXibc289eblI7tw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="605" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: content-box !important;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">再看整个全国结构，10月份，其实跌的城市比较多，因为房价是一个均值，如果纯粹看房价，很难有感觉。实际上三线城市没有想象的好，四线城市也没有想象的差，一线城市确实表现非常好。城市之间结构上差别会很大。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">我们也做了一些省域房价预测。北京、深圳、济南还是有很好的提升机会。<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>西南区域增速未来依然有机会能够跑赢全国，东部区域的城市会有分化。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h2><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">03</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">地产中观</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">销售端—量价整体：<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2022年1-10月，商品房销售金额及面积下滑均超过20%，但相较于1-9月的累计同比，降幅有所收窄</strong></span>。<br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="259" data-backw="393" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaxx8U7cEu5wPooFwHezg9D659n45PNqwacFk3wNeVfvOR5icibpWOibcpg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="177.37024221453288" data-cropx2="969.4896193771627" data-cropy1="76.59169550173011" data-cropy2="598.6245674740485" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6590909090909091" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaOC81c5hFa3ibGib1UqNRAAWBADVwE9rer9y1pFFcXn6Q3ujFznVK7lnQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="792" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">从1-6月份到1-10月份，商品房销售金额整体累计同比速度在下降，表明环比的下跌程度实际上在收窄。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">销售面积的下降幅度没有销售金额的下降幅度大，是因为房价跌了。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">所以说客户没有需求，可能太悲观了。客户需求下降幅度，并没有房价的下跌幅度大，正应了那句话“没有卖不出去的房子，只有卖不出去的价格”。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">需求一直都在，销售面积累计同比的变化实际上也已经底部回升，总体环比的数值已经不再下跌。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">价格在今年1-5月份的时候达到15年来同比最大的幅幅，跌了10.34%，这个则主要是由于2021年房价有较大的涨幅，这一波房价下跌可以理解是对之前泡沫的一次修正。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">总结：购房者的需求从环比来看已经底部回升，但从投资来看，开发商的信心依然在下跌。从库存来讲，实际上在高位回落中。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="304" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5490360435875943" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaGABPCFVzYpn3Njmpj6icshO7Xia4SgOA7Iwsdy0XM0LNj8jIqjO3icsaA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1193" style="height: 304px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 554px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">所以，我对2023年的市场很有信心——</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>一是因为所有企业都不拿地，意味着2023年的新增供应比较少；</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>二是市场需求端最差的时候已经出现，2023年的购房需求不会比今年差；</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>三是整个库存在下降趋势中，一旦需求恢复，供不应求的情况又要发生。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="244" data-backw="296" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piay66FYGc8PYMHPPpEW4TmFDZz4y4ibdpfibBHDv1MvXlWcnuHCKkCjmDg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="605.3148788927335" data-cropy1="130.87889273356402" data-cropy2="629.8546712802769" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.824793388429752" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiawBic9roFHE9HMMyDSERwuRhEkJzdac04mMpkLeATxvZscfq9lmCoksQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="605" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">很多人会强调库存总数有五亿平米，但是不能忽略中国的销售规模体量是非常大的——</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">即便在2014-2015年去库存的时候，库存也仅够卖6.5个月，这也是后面2016-2017年房价暴涨的原因。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">在2021年市场最疯狂的时候，库存大概只够卖不到三个月。虽然房地产的库存面积在同比反弹，但是库存总量相比历史高位，仍处于低位。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="254" data-backw="284" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piay66FYGc8PYMHPPpEW4TmFDZz4y4ibdpfibBHDv1MvXlWcnuHCKkCjmDg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="601.2249134948097" data-cropx2="1182" data-cropy1="124.74394463667821" data-cropy2="644.1695501730104" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8950086058519794" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia0WcdVt5YqXpv3vhPiav7DaicHWDLsErP18brSIDYbzpj5rMS5cKbBPIg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="581" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">大部分的开发商都是后知后觉，在市场的库存非常低的时候，信心满满的积极拿地，如果冷静下来从历史趋势来看，会发现那个时候往往是最危险的时候。库存存销比和库存回升的时候，大家又往往没有信心，而这个时候恰恰是最适合做一些有效的投资动作。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">即便现在去化周期在反弹，可以看到，也只有4.6个月。假设销售量再下降20%，库存的去化周期也达不到6个月。如果未来6个月全国没有新增供应，所有的房子还是会被买光。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">目前新投资拿地已经持续下降约12个月，新开工也持续下降约8个月，开发商高周转的条件也失去了，很多总包单位再也不愿意垫款提前开工，这样的背景下，可以预判，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>在2023年或2024年的某一个时点，市场可能出现严重的供不应求</strong></span>，新的房价泡沫正在酝酿，瑞雪兆丰年，大概就是这样的逻辑吧。<span style="text-align: center;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6469401479488904" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaibKgicv7icZAUAiab9xNglHqBnmWL1ERoaqW7Nwdr3sd9bOKdCo5Cia7S5w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1487" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">开发商企业是否已经做好准备和考虑？大家会不会又盲目的把好不容易缓过来赚到的钱，又急急忙忙拿一批高价地，然后又进入另外一个债务危机？<span style="text-align: center;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>短期三年内，我充满信心，未来十年，潜伏着巨大的不确定性的危险。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">融资端—总量：2022年1-10月累计到位资金为19.7万亿，同比去年降低17.7%，较9月降幅扩大0.83个百分点，继续下探筑底。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">房地产的累计到位资金下降了17.7%，而且环比依然在下跌，企业的融资状况确实没有得到改善。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5265374894692502" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiamMTicQpaxblohMTaddibEt5S7jWaAOuOF5gY46fV0AHsgJfRtbADjXog/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1187" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">所以研究市场的时候，需要从几个维度去看。首先，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>市场的需求已经见底，但是企业的问题还没有见底。其次，房价下跌可能已经见底，接下来要解决如何增加资产及资产再融资的问题。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">从某种意义上来讲，近期出台的政策并不是否定房住不炒的失败。太多的新开工、未竣工其实并不算资产，通过这一轮房地产调控及危机之后，再配合上最近的三道政策，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>政府或者国家希望房企夯实资产</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>在这个过程中，不论是已经“出险”的房企还是稳健经营中的房企，都具备弯道超车的机会，但前提是，夯实企业所有资产</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">一旦企业资产夯实完，自然就具备了再融资的能力，也就有了再次发展的动力。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">但不能简单的通过期房销售实现资产夯实，政府并不希望开发商做一个中间商，纯粹倒地。如果今天依然停留在期房销售，中间商赚差价的经营思维，不论是否出险，企业都很难解题。<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>企业需要重新审视自身已有资源，思考如何将土地变成高价值的资产。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">整体房产贷款余额同比略增加0.05%，但实际上新增贷款是0.7万亿，偿还贷款是0.8万亿，整体来讲是负的，说明家庭部门依然有很强的贷款能力。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="549" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="285" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5191986644407346" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PianicicfHtudSUPic2r03h106Wy0ib6GzFzQwfPZz9NTUwuC5dF8sUacNOPw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1198" style="height: 285px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 549px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">很多企业会说客户没有购房需求，我反而认为需求可以被激发。一个美国的经济学家提出过一个观点，他认为需求具有很强的弹性，可以被激发。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">影响需求最核心的因素是居民加杠杆的意愿。目前疫情确实影响居民加杠杆的意愿，但同时也要看到，居民端的存款增加了很多，一旦居民有了加杠杆的意愿，可能造成新增涌入房地产市场的购买资金量非常可怕。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">因此，我认为一个更大的泡沫正在酝酿，明、后年会出现一些比较大的市场波动，将会把整个房产调控推向一个两难的境地。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">如果要调控收紧，那时候或许还有很多企业没有完全走出债务危机，如果调控放松，可能会出现局部泡沫，能否接受？</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">高周转现在遇到了瓶颈，但高周转是企业要去坚持做的事情，因为高速周转代表的是企业效率。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>这一轮危机，开发商最大的问题并不是高周转，而是没有利润。所以，在保证高周转能力的同时，开发商企业要思考如何提升利润。</strong></span></section><h1 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h1><h1 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h1><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">04</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">省域市场</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">在整个省域市场里，除了上海，基本上所有的省销售金额均下降。西藏的下降幅度最大为54%，主要由于去年西藏价格上涨，今年被全国市场拖累，同比下降较多。新疆同理。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="270" data-backw="287" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia9eJMRhIeF6iaIvcjDAOLcRBy8ro0wM3F8ABJjXrcVkyQYEqaMUtrS5A/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="663.6166007905139" data-cropy1="18.49802371541502" data-cropy2="642.8063241106719" data-ratio="0.9411764705882353" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piatw6qnqicZTQ7zCdnNOhV6LqR12S9hAsIhicAb7a4RSW0QCTNL1jHFuEw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="663" style="white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="253" data-backw="212" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia9eJMRhIeF6iaIvcjDAOLcRBy8ro0wM3F8ABJjXrcVkyQYEqaMUtrS5A/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="665.9288537549407" data-cropx2="1156.1264822134387" data-cropy1="60.11857707509881" data-cropy2="642.8063241106719" data-ratio="1.1914460285132382" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaicxIzOzfoKJ46UbH9Y2mM8PiaTVkWv1mXYBJZ3JRd748AnWaicnYENEyw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="491" style="white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">比较惨烈的地方，比如重庆，整体销量下降了很多，价格下跌的幅度非常大。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">上海整个销售金额增长是因为价格增长带来的，上海价格增长12.88%，实际上，面积的销量在下跌。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>中国房地产市场有很明显的区域轮动，区域轮动与地方市场的成熟度相关</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">成熟的市场规模整体来讲比较稳定，区域轮动主要来自于价格，比如像上海、北京最主流的一线市场处于城市扩张的中后期阶段，这些城市目前确实面临整个价格的回落以及规模的回落。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>西北的城市，包括一些边陲节点城市，实际上整个市场还处于一个蓬勃启动的初期。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">目前销售额环比来看</span></strong>，大部分市场热度在回升，同比是跌，但是环比已经在涨。上海是同比上涨，环比下跌。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="251" data-backw="307" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaia2v3VdnoMibD8Z2P7jJxTwXenuneGibcYQF6cIm1xvEApk0LOGDxgwEw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="705.00790513834" data-cropy1="71.18972332015811" data-cropy2="647.596837944664" data-ratio="0.8170212765957446" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaCL2SZZv7afZwKjccC55721Se9s2aKy3HtIpPpCCROdgv7iaMc3XUjag/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="705" style="white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="261" data-backw="172" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaia2v3VdnoMibD8Z2P7jJxTwXenuneGibcYQF6cIm1xvEApk0LOGDxgwEw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="707.304347826087" data-cropx2="1102.292490118577" data-cropy1="48.22529644268775" data-cropy2="647.596837944664" data-ratio="1.5164556962025317" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaWTTlC5sLZY4Kho2bR17y0hU1cK1jWT5UOa0Yic9EEvJbfhkIgiblryJQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="395" style="white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">企业投资的时候有一个短板，通过后视镜观察路况并决策投资，这样往往后知后觉。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">有些房企看到上海市场很火，逆势保持增长，纷纷想要最后搏一把进大上海淘金，而市场最火爆的9-10月份，基本上是上海这一轮的头部，接下来可能会走入下降通道。所以从这个图可以看到上海是唯一市场热度在下降的城市。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">还有一些持续低迷的城市，有两类，一类是贵州、黑龙江等持续下降的城市，第二类是宁夏、内蒙古、青海等真正意义下降的城市。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>省域市场差异—金额（增量）方面</strong></span>，上海因为疫情，5月份销售额增量为负，主要的销售额增量来自于今年三季度一波反扑，市场还在增长。西藏变差，宁夏在收窄，浙江、江苏、广东年度跌幅最大，目前进入企稳状态。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="248" data-backw="263" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piazdmz7kjLjAfpXLQfUhrqRJ5dzmatFSBM1aAa8bibfXdw8jX24dOjibQQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="620.3426853707414" data-cropy1="61.326653306613224" data-cropy2="646.2885771543085" data-ratio="0.9419354838709677" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piab6WkvphGddibSrEYe0S8sxDxROcibxYdcf11ibSC3GrsHkFVicuhD8LzIA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="620" style="white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="255" data-backw="200" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piazdmz7kjLjAfpXLQfUhrqRJ5dzmatFSBM1aAa8bibfXdw8jX24dOjibQQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="664.9586614173228" data-cropx2="1128.3444881889764" data-cropy1="53.27548218739637" data-cropy2="643.9384368737474" data-ratio="1.2758620689655173" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaUwelmcPgtP5COKjibpD0WW5bVRykUs42m3P0ZKyvMEW1Dff9kRLo7mw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="464" style="white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">浙江、江苏、广东的问题是，他们整体价格下降没有其他地方多，所以成交面积下降就比较多，但是可能2023年上半年，这三个省又会有不错的销售表现。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">因为，单纯看中国的宏观指标，中国的城市化已经到了比较高的阶段，如果结构看，会发现中国工业化处在中期。一些区域房地产还比较旺盛，像现在广东、江苏、浙江的一些省市整个市场已经在下跌收缩状态，很接近底部，明年上半年，这三个地方如果有一波很剧烈的大规模成交，并不让人意外。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">基于此，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>建议房企<strong style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);white-space: normal;">现在</strong>应该考虑手里的哪些资产可以实现增值，用何种方式可利用私募股权帮企业募集到更多资金，而不是盲目降价促销割肉。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>省域房价水平-宏观三因子模型</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">利用国家统计局2018年的统计数据建模，影响不同省的房价增长的核心原因有三个：经济收入+产业结构+适龄人口。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">普通小学在校学生数在2007-2017年之间支撑房价的上涨，2017年之后，它快速下降。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">另外一个指标具备很高解释度，是三产占比，即工业制造业之外的其他一切，包括餐饮、物流、互联网、高科技、电商等，因为疫情，这些都受到很大影响。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="277" data-backw="578" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia3e1Ij3PqQkics8hibz1TMPfgAiacglp2PKkreoQia3oSsEWlV3KNHtQF3g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1189" data-cropy1="65.82698961937716" data-cropy2="635.6418685121107" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.479394449116905" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia0xHxWVYbnXLNbmLmicGiaiaa7fO6PTycBzxMlHq199ibPLJ5GBmZCCo07A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1189" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">我们可以衍生出一个话题，当商业类空间和产业类空间的需求开始反弹，各位开发商老板是否应该思考，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>企业目前所持有的商业和产业物业的真实价值到底是什么？</strong></span>我们是否低估了他们的价值？我们是否可以通过产品力提升和服务提升来增加他们的价值？我们是否通过资源整合来提升他们的价值？</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">同时，规模以上工业企业利润总额在2018年之后也上升，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>大型项目的投放也是未来企业需要关注的点</strong></span>。有大型项目、基建投入的地方可能是比较好的投资地方。人口指标不再重要，会造成影响的，是人口指标的结构性变化。<span style="font-size: 12px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">我对明后年乐观的原因还有一个，基于对中国抚养比的分析。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">2012年中国抚养比最低，之后持续回升，分水岭在2032年。假定一个人工作到75岁，依然消费，会出现我认为的第二个抚养比，分水岭延续到2055年，也就是说，房地产行业这轮危机，还是属于小周期波动，中周期来看，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>保守估计，行业还有十年的好日子，乐观估计，行业还有三十年的好日子</strong></span>，足够让很多人干到退休了。</section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="236" data-backw="186" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaic2FdT33FGVV4rqgWUgh3xuA0sLKCAr79qYTuBI2bEiaTU94CuTciavOQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="379.0795847750865" data-cropy1="142.6643598615917" data-cropy2="623.6470588235294" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.2691292875989446" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia0E1hRaRcWhTsHqRZ2cHHUbnQ5th9iaqPeZPP11DIYyOWnKbOW9HFcwA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="379" style="width: 546px;" /></section><section style="white-space: normal;line-height: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">抚养比=（非劳动年龄人口/劳动年龄人口数）x100%。<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;line-height: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">非劳动年龄人口：14岁及以下和65岁及以上人口<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;line-height: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">劳动年龄人口：15-64周岁人口</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="228" data-backw="188" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaic2FdT33FGVV4rqgWUgh3xuA0sLKCAr79qYTuBI2bEiaTU94CuTciavOQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="351.280276816609" data-cropx2="702.560553633218" data-cropy1="128.92733564013838" data-cropy2="553.0795847750865" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.210826210826211" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaLdNluKLjuPwsicAFyesMlWsSNfWOJeugkl11ficraCXwro4I5hCrBzJQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="351" style="width: 546px;" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="251" data-backw="194" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaic2FdT33FGVV4rqgWUgh3xuA0sLKCAr79qYTuBI2bEiaTU94CuTciavOQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="717.5086505190311" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="117.71626297577855" data-cropy2="586.7128027681661" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.2947658402203857" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaKSlvMiaIhxF9r1OK366QswnlUJ97AqYKibURWsicm09GTian8Am5r1oAVQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="363" style="width: 546px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">模型结论：按照模型评估了各省的合理房价，与它们2020年的房价做了差值，结合之前的城市化理论，<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>我个人认为湖南、重庆、山东、湖北、江苏、天津、四川、西藏、贵州等地房地产市场依然处在发展的中期阶段，仍有非常多的可能性。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="254" data-backw="348" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiarfRJg7BGZR7YS4KHhrAXFybN7n3r8eSgGOh7w7wibabknwnCnSl2jqw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="14.326989619377162" data-cropx2="726.583044982699" data-cropy1="79.82179930795849" data-cropy2="599.6868512110727" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7317415730337079" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiafIcWUibKDnyRRNWG7I90ic1j14N33r63L0AE1FbyG1fHczn6sg5gap4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="712" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="294" data-backw="203" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiarfRJg7BGZR7YS4KHhrAXFybN7n3r8eSgGOh7w7wibabknwnCnSl2jqw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="728.6297577854671" data-cropx2="1144.1124567474048" data-cropy1="53.21453287197233" data-cropy2="652.9013840830451" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.4447115384615385" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaiaj5ufjWpD8qCXGQSW7d8CvwKreX4bMlCAQ8f8KPlMNb0Pm2tKfZm4A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="416" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 546px;" /></section><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></h2><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">05</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">市场周期（全国）</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">长远的未来难预知，但小周期趋势，我认为是可以预判的，因为它实际上是对惯性的判断。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">很多人会问周期是否有效？我特地查了美国的几个投资经理。霍华德是坚定的周期投资者，巴菲特是坚定的价值投资者。霍华德基金今年获得10%以上的正收益，巴菲特大概是-18%。是不是周期仍然有效？毕竟，即便在今年美股很差的状况下，有一个投资大师靠它赚了很多钱。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">现阶段全国房价增速已触底，接近2012年年初水平，<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从周期来看，本轮周期在2022年7月触底，预期2023年2月至2023年10月，市场会处于信心向上冲高的阶段。预期未来一年信心周期上升的城市占比为53%，但结构依然分化。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4720812182741117" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaBMTE7ycsT7ibj5hUh2k6jLDaBjV0JwdMCSv3NkBWpuP0sorhKkjDicAQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1182" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;" /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">建议企业提前做一些准备。如果有可能的话，在2023年2月份之前，企业应该基于现金流的需要，克制地进行房屋销售。在2023年2月份之后，企业可以借助市场的回暖，实现一波涨价的房屋销售。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">企业需要重新审视所有资产的架构，不是简单的通过涨价虚增资产价值，而是通过对资产要素的重新梳理，让资产在2023年3-4月份时，有能力借助市场反弹，实现有质量的涨价销售。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">接下来这半年，企业更多的现金流补充应该来自于融资性现金流，而不是通过杀鸡取卵式的销售来获得现金，这样才可以确保在下一轮回调的时候，企业还有能力进行新一轮的投资增长。</section><h1 style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></h1><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">06</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">不投资买地，还能投资什么</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">11月27号的时候，深圳万科项目开盘线上卖掉273套。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">这个万科项目在深圳前海的一个核心区，大部分开发商把房子建成164-338平，甚至更大，而万科打造110平米的四房。今天投资拿地可能不仅是投资谈投资，不能只是局限在拿地单一的维度。企业需要重新审视什么样的产品最有利于表达产品单价。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia2vPYheV5JlibbhUey9X2VV9u7VRVibEicAbiaWb8DKt9XJglA7qibNn9Zzg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="674.5328719723183" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6231481481481481" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiawmFOA4WY5ia6qx5jGjNflrrl33hEsQP2o9e2nnVOuickvVJoXMyMqQng/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="width: 578px;height: 361px;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(145, 145, 145);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, Arial, 微软雅黑, 宋体, simsun, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">万科项目&nbsp;售楼处实况</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">与此同时，还有另外一个万科项目，在深圳新核心区边上的一个增量区域，销售也很好。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">它的产品是73平米的三房两厅一卫、80平米的三房两厅两卫以及98平米的四房两厅两卫。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="354" data-backw="427" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaHpibxrO6qC2AiaDX3oXbmWicLADXMwAeCCKO9KEibSOEqkqMSia80ELSBLA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="130.79584775086505" data-cropx2="928.6505190311418" data-cropy1="71.00346020761246" data-cropy2="732.4567474048442" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8283208020050126" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Piaia5uWibr33GyOFtKiaIvsuUaSoa14ZjtMkZ4HcDl3SYXzbA1C4hl8EJmw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="798" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(145, 145, 145);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, Arial, 微软雅黑, 宋体, simsun, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">万科项目73㎡户型图</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">这个楼盘是如何做到快速去化？所以建议即便企业现在不拿地，企业依然可以把公司有限的资源投资在产业能力方面，想尽一些办法提升已有资产的盈利能力。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">实际上，万科这两个项目。今天呈现出来的状态并不是因为昨天的决策，</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">正如很多企业在2021年和2022年面对的困难并不是在2021年和2022年造成的，实际上可能是在2017年、2018年、2019年的时候，整个企业不好的习惯、错误的决策流程和藐视专业的选择带来的结果。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">万科在前海核心位置为什么会出现115平米的四房，实际上是跟早几年，他们去了解市场、做产品研究有关。他们提前做了研究，他们提前做了产品应对策略，他们才能有现在在弱市竞争中的胜利。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">如果企业没有办法买地投资，应该投资什么？</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>应该投资到企业内部的产业方面。项目依然可以做一些加法上的提升，核心目的是为了提升单价</strong></span>，那么有一些城市核心好地段，不是为了活下来就把最好卖的房子简单卖掉，需要在资产上找一些创新点，让资产有一定增值。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">当然在目前的市场状况之下，所有人都会觉得很难。但在明年春节之后，在二季度会有一个很明确的窗口期。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">企业今天做的所有努力，在那个时候可能会获得至少30%的增值。而那一部分未必需要通过销售来实现，其实可以通过证监会发布政策中的五个办法实现企业融资性收入。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">密克斯岛改造后实现了很高的人流量。如果不买地，还能投资什么呢？<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>其实可以投资企业自己的可售商业以及售楼处。</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5520338087691495" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia01hLHdOibmKYEVibMXsT9UM3lpHWvhy74bnGeTzMVoVths0gLTTJTUXg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1893" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5574894514767933" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaEnTFlr7cgAov0VvCSEYoov2USYEtEibuYaTYWaHq3yiaWBgia9BeOWIpw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1896" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5518893028206493" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaDS7lEjQY6LDOjsDnLS4GXoLdiaf1hsPmrdDUGZdpI8g9JJHKTYOtDrA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1879" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">像孙老师讲的，很多人会把车位当成一个滞重资产，从来没有考虑过，其实车位跟住宅是配套打包的整体。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">过去，企业所有获取收入的方式都是销售住宅，这也是过去十年整个行业专业能力大量缺失造成的。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>实际上，开发商还有大量的底商、大量的物业用房、售楼处，大量的自持物业，这些东西是值得企业去再投资的</strong></span>，可能只需要再投入少量的改造费用，甚至比渠道分销拓客费用零头还低的一个费用，就可以很明显的提升到访量，提升楼盘的售价。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23Pia0SQnnu2de4bKd2ex93gEXA1YmvEgwnQXzfdZMDKoZoSH5NcdxKf4IA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1029" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="721.0121107266438" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7006802721088435" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ibtXNhaKVcQH3Z6iaBA23PiaqgpczMeMic3qMpPOXRUG1iaOmV99B7raDU4FuyE1IgwqxKd8Hab5aavA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1029" style="width: 578px;height: 405px;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><h2 style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 36px;visibility: visible;">07</span><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);visibility: visible;">@urasr</span></strong></h2><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;visibility: visible;">———</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;">总结</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">整个市场的萧条状态是过去20年的最低，不会再低了。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">放眼全球的房地产历史来看，中国的房地产行业，依然只是个孩子。这事让我有底气、有信心认为，去年17万亿也好，今年14万亿也罢，只是中国房地产的开场，甚至都不算上半场，行业中场的高潮还没有到。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">当然，有很多客观的指标也在告诉我们，整个人口出生增量在下降，最近发生的很多事情，对大家的打击也很大。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">但这些都是短周期的东西，一旦短期向下波动的情绪过去，可能对经济带来更大的冲击的，将是无序的反弹跟泡沫化的趋势，这是更大的中长期风险。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">基于此，建议企业不能一味地把眼光盯在纯粹以销售换取现金这种短期行为上。而且在预售款监管收紧趋势不改的情况下，通过疯狂销售实现回款，产生的现金流并没有太大的作用。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">如果能够稳住债权人，能够稳定住资方，能够稳定住团队，企业需要做的最重要的事情是，重新梳理企业发展战略和模式，重新梳理团队架构和人才储备,重新实现资产增值。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">建议企业把手里所有非住宅类的资源重新梳理一遍，做一些适度投入，让所有资产都有一定增值。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">结合现在的利好政策，还是要考虑金融创新。通过资产增值跟金融创新合法合规获得融资性现金流。这些现金流对企业最有价值。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">当然，如果企业想兑现利润，降低自身债务，则可能最好的有价有量的销售窗口期是在2023年的第三季度。</section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">祝大家和禾略一样好运，我亲爱的朋友们，加油！</section><section style="max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·「禾略问答」·</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a class="weapp_image_link" data-miniprogram-appid="wxf051804df9944e68" data-miniprogram-path="pages/index/index" data-miniprogram-nickname="禾略问答" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href="" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;line-height: 0;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.33830455259026687" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxgXqtJ7x2ATMbtIm1oBmTM5cLtzxaHKiaJINP1DiaedwSS8oUuQadhFxpcXZiaWxTvWyWxXichXeiaGHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1274" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;margin: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;width: 648px !important;visibility: visible !important;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;" /></a></section><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·<span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">「HotTina」</span>·</span></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, 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100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" 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data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="47" data-backh="47" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: 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