暑期档日活破2000万！游戏板块估值修复开启​

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下为浙商证券《游戏深度：星辰大海，长期繁荣》研究报告的核心内容总结（2025年9月8日发布）：</span></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="9b-XDC6BX6" data-dir-key="9b-XDC6BX6"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、核心结论</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业评级：看好</span></span></strong></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">游戏板块处于业绩拐点右侧，25H2及2026年业绩有望持续上调，估值切换窗口将至（当前16倍→2026年目标20</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">倍P/E）。建议关注“高低搭配”标的：</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">右侧（产品线优秀）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：ST华通、巨人网络、三七互娱、吉比特、腾讯控股、心动公司&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">左侧（新游可期）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：神州泰岳、恺英网络、完美世界、盛天网络、掌趣科技&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="CKd5Lt-0wo" data-dir-key="CKd5Lt-0wo"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、行业基本面</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场规模创新高</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">25H1国内游戏市场</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：实际销售收入达</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1680亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比+14.08%），用户规模</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">6.79亿</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">手游表现</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：25Q1/Q2手游收入分别为636亿/617亿，同比增长17.5%/20.3%，爆款驱动明显（如《无尽冬日》《</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三角洲行动》）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">增长动因</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：宏观经济下滑下“口红效应”刺激悦己消费；AI技术提效；爆款游戏持续涌现。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">板块盈利与成本</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">营收/利润</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：25Q2游戏板块营收</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">270亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比+22%），归母净利润创近10季度新高。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045517" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.4783625730994152" data-w="855" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9axDZBwnpP9HNZicfALm3kUrI2myxq83YC2dTZnH8cH1RTCU2pDxBibLtw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">费用优化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：营销费用随营收增长，但研发费用在AI增效下保持稳定（25Q2约28亿元），降本增效显著。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="URx_VOeYeS" data-dir-key="URx_VOeYeS"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、行业核心逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">颠覆性认知</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：游戏公司已逐步摆脱“流水不稳定”的标签</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">玩家审美提升推动市场走向&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">“以质取胜”</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，游戏生命周期显著延长（如SLG品类《旭日之城》运营超6年）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策面趋稳支持发展：版号审批周期缩短，监管环境友好。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心驱动因素</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">宏观经济环境催化“悦己经济”；</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">爆款带动流水→反哺研发投入→产出高质量内容；</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI技术降本增效（研发费用率下降）；</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新爆款有望带动板块整体估值上行。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="i159VTGuX-" data-dir-key="i159VTGuX-"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、重点公司分析</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="xov7wS7fiM" data-dir-key="xov7wS7fiM"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">业绩亮点（25Q2）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：</span></span></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">头部公司</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ST华通：净利润13.06亿元（同比+158%，《无尽冬日》《Kingshot》驱动）；&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三七互娱：净利润8.51亿元（同比+31%）；&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">腾讯/网易：《三角洲行动》《梦幻西游》贡献核心增量。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">扭亏/高增</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：完美世界、冰川网络、星辉娱乐等净利显著改善。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="V6PzPw_Dkv" data-dir-key="V6PzPw_Dkv"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产品管线与催化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：</span></span></span></span></h4><table style="min-width:180px;"><tbody><tr style=""><th data-colwidth="155" style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心产品/催化剂</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="155" style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ST华通</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">《奔奔王国》（微信小游戏8月底上线）、《传奇世界》多端版&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="155" style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">巨人网络</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">《超自然行动组》暑期流水创新高、《名将杀》（年内公测）&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="155" style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">吉比特</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">《杖剑传说》日本畅销榜Top 35、《九牧之野》获版号&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="155" style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">腾讯控股</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">《三角洲行动》（7月DAU超2000万）、《ARC Raiders》（10月发售）、《王者荣耀世界》&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="155" style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">神州泰岳</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">《代号DL》海外上线、《Stellar Sanctuary》获版号&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="155" style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盛天网络&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 427px;min-width: 427px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">自研AI模型+算力基建，《神奇波比》25Q3上线&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：游戏板块在基本面强势、AI技术赋能及政策支持驱动下，已进入长期景气周期，建议积极配置优质标的把握估值修复机会。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>