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未来3年,中国东部新增购房人群会出现在哪?

发布于 2023-02-27

<section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQQBjBpSbstp9T4LMlTnCATRkUfRbuhrKzRWGuJ8NsibCRtMfibYxhHrNA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="3.5813148788927336" data-cropx2="685.2249134948097" data-cropy1="468.40756302521015" data-cropy2="806.9005602240898" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4970674486803519" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="682" style="width: 571px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQd87opMw35ttvgF2ZOFNBib2QkyqZ6icvmzanbcuqpiacmia3ZRCMmwVVvA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">2023.2.27</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">一份数据预测分析报告</span></section><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">///</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="288" data-backw="453" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="347" data-ratio="0.635593220338983" data-type="png" data-w="708" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQ4Agungo92PEicNNSc4yzoSJuK3BtMke2UXa8ur3MWEwRbfoLxgBDx3A/640?wx_fmt=png" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">2020~2025年 适龄购房人口数量变化预测(人)</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">全国</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">第</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">七次人口普查数据公布后,我们使用人口学模型对全国未来(2020年到2025年)30~45岁适龄购房人口的区域分布做出了预测。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">在2022年后全国人口达峰回落以及人口老龄化、少子化的背景下,分析区域性的人口结构性机会仍然具较大现实意义。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">本文分为数据源,预测模型,预测结果三部分进行介绍,受限于篇幅,优先展示东部省份的预测结果。</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><em style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼</span></em></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">1.</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">数据源&nbsp; &nbsp;</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">模型预测数据源主要来自统计局2020的第七次人口普查数据以及来自WHO的中国人口生命表数据。具体分为以下四张数据表:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>(1)七普分区县分年龄段分性别人口存量(5岁组距)</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Eg:0~4岁、5~9岁分性别人口存量</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">(2)七普分省分年龄段育龄妇女生育结构</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="118" data-backw="430" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="150" data-ratio="0.2753846153846154" data-type="png" data-w="650" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQZclxSDAcEE73Q7QsYW9aR0wCNOPRvb7znnLon3A9ddWmMWBJViaqbHA/640?wx_fmt=png" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="233" data-backw="409" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="312" data-ratio="0.5691788526434196" data-type="png" data-w="889" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQuOLrEsTc7M8piaHg7dnicmTDpykiaXYnfTaPtNRDNjXckkPS0aXgrjAQg/640?wx_fmt=png" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">全国育龄妇女生育率是1300‰,意味着平均一个女性一生养育1.3个孩子。贵州生育率最高,达到2000‰以上,其次是广西、西藏、甘肃。上海与黑龙江生育率降低,分别是740‰与758‰。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">(3)七普分区县总和生育率</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="248" data-backw="410" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="331" data-ratio="0.6063522617901829" data-type="png" data-w="1039" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQsCELicScuvt1DibonA6ta1aZXtvicEM25IJufT0RkLTbyTR1jMKvYeVYg/640?wx_fmt=png" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">分区县总和生育率</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">使用</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">七</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">普数据分区县平均存活子女数</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">进行近似,假设育龄妇女在不同年龄段的生育水平差异基本与其所在省份分布类似,则结合<strong>分省分年龄段育龄妇女生育结构</strong>可以估算得到<strong>分区县不同年龄段的生育率水平</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">(4)2019年WHO中国人口生命表</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">生命表反映一个国家或地区的人口死亡率、死亡人数及各年龄的生命期望等生命函数,通过生命表可以推算进入下个年龄段的人口存活概率。</span></section><h1 style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></h1><h1 style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">2.</span></span></h1><h1 style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">预测模型</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></h1><h1 style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></h1><h1 style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">首</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">先我们对模型做出一些基本假设:</span><br /></h1><h1 style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、假设未来生育水平、意愿,分年龄段育龄妇女生育结构与2020年7普保持不变。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、假设未来医疗水平、人口预期寿命维持2019年水平保持不变。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="214" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="215" data-ratio="0.39327830188679247" data-type="png" data-w="1696" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQxmnib9GDGIxjTUW78G1eEmn2WCcI3W5lPzVgzjKl7yNcHOGHjxk5Qgg/640?wx_fmt=png" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过cohort-component方法即Leslie矩阵对上述数据进行迭代运算,得到未来人口的基线水平预测,模型计算示意图如上所示。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 50px;">3.</span></span></h1><h1 style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">预测结果展示

&nbsp;</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们对30~45岁适龄购房人口增速及增速的空间集聚特征按照省份进行上图展示。对于空间集聚特征我们使用局域莫兰指数(LISA)方法,下面简单对LISA方法进行介绍。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第</span><img data-ratio="1.8571428571428572" data-type="png" data-w="7" style="width: 6px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQ0XWDMhrCWfLhhia60icnibTJYokou0dhB6VhO7aTUCDrY6eYYGibtMg4MA/640?wx_fmt=png" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">个地区的局域莫兰指数</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.4166666666666667" data-type="png" data-w="12" style="width: 11px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQ0sNqThK43N4K4U2ncazISZ7rjg63ft5Hv44s4uTmjvbNOyLl8bmfrw/640?wx_fmt=png" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">为(x是我们所要研究的对象,在这里以经济水平为例,w是刻画地区之间相邻关系的空间邻接矩阵):</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.23387096774193547" data-type="png" data-w="124" style="width: 123px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQD3SDq1QvN379BVa9HBiciarNaTCLWAib4UKic4hVcNYjnEfwHAO151nicHg/640?wx_fmt=png" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.0798611111111111" data-type="png" data-w="288" style="width: 287px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQgibH9d5p27kdjqfRSCycxkY5t2wRTe51yUZ2uy0ku1xZM64hQytZ7qA/640?wx_fmt=png" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以将局域莫兰指数直观理解为对每个区域</span><img data-ratio="1.0833333333333333" data-type="png" data-w="12" style="width: 11px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQiccGBKj9rDbZVqb55Vj8YhP5pmWnX9pqj19RNW2qdAoWAWibEBZ2hetA/640?wx_fmt=png" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">的某一指标的零均值处理后的取值(即</span><img data-ratio="0.7391304347826086" data-type="png" data-w="23" style="width: 22px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQoXT7vZhCuFqia968RSKccuuJqMMj9mYzNS5UNapQR7CPUXGDqAMuLEA/640?wx_fmt=png" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">),与其周边邻接区域平均水平的零均值化后的乘积</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">(即区域i的空间滞后变量</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQo38XOzXq6TjDQwvCBZTw6WRtutkaIlkQOmLcb42COG2mETxkmWgGMg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="78.49367088607595" data-cropx2="159" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="28.17721518987342" data-ratio="0.345679012345679" data-type="jpeg" data-w="81" style="width: 80px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQOlwMVugSSYkSCYbCsbjbb4jaDcX3iapL8ON7PEpjX9HLcOLhREPCFVA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">),这样<strong>根据正负两两组合可以将所有样本归类到四个象限</strong>,分别是<strong>HH、LL、HL、LH四象限</strong>,其含义如下表所示。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">表:局域莫兰指数与莫兰散点图分类</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="444" data-backw="578" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQXz8CobNGvpCDNyVyWQKricnywUiaVTOZ6ud4hlZnQ16jfmzk4qarI8Rw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="838.3681318681319" data-cropy1="6.175824175824176" data-cropy2="648.4615384615385" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.766109785202864" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="838" style="width: 543px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQibV2vF3C2X8getia86OmEay0Y1bsGTqiaRjRHRUp9TFmw8FCUHNukbPsA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><span style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">简言之,通过局域莫兰方法对适龄购房人口的增长按照空间集聚特征可以分为HH、LL、HL、LH四类,比如若i地区属于HH区就意味着,i地区人口增速较快且i地区周边的人口增速也较快,所以</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>HH区又被称作“热点区”,可以重点关注</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">浙江省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQXE4oGvPOX3jT1BDcbNibnOEib2HibPVwXvpIX4ibmAub1rfRE7icgC3ibrwA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="102.72373540856032" data-cropy2="1076.2645914396887" data-ratio="0.8116666666666666" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 514px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQP1HHH5hcahdDmP3ibK8ePdUku87yxwGzGoHl8HE5doBZrv3Mkn5D6ibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQtw0mCTfOyDQw8naLbgFBhXYk34D4BEH40jxsjYPdRV7puibpyLfKEVg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="101.09890109890111" data-cropy2="1065.934065934066" data-ratio="0.8033333333333333" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQ6TloJSNjAicIvaGqibsBYltrXl0RfGibkNcJqwFza0LicCTCWqnCadvw3w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">浙江省的北部靠近江苏的</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>嘉兴市,湖州、绍兴北部、宁波北部是适龄购房人口增长的热点区,杭州市,作为省内增速排名第一城市,增速8.3%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">天津市</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQzMlOmOQTWTP7TwJMVDUSMrCvGnfWYge8cfkicPj8eyewQ93ibCLn2eFw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="85.71428571428572" data-cropy2="1074.7252747252749" data-ratio="0.8241666666666667" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQRADSQrtzE3pKBta0yZqicQuFibHfcQHS9MKk7RfyB3dXnJoTwyTHbpNw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQw7210h0QhFDMX3fDV6FYScS9DTpkeiaicfu94L98CF8lUeDSdUOVsl4A/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="92.30769230769232" data-cropy2="1070.3296703296703" data-ratio="0.815" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQpWcNGIx8iaS9jjxcnuiaD6C9qOn1vcquqib2KFIfBEE2SFmRfW7YvEMoQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">天津市南部四区适龄购房人口保持正增长,其中,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>西青区,东丽区增速较快,达到5%以上</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,其他区及中心城区增速负增长,但仍处于全国平均增速之上,所以维持整体HH热点区格局。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">上海市</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQmZqdjWsugibiaPGKSj5OzzhOJOR0NqBAibnE5cI9GpIpzOic7s5bJ3NSJQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="83.51648351648352" data-cropy2="1079.1208791208792" data-ratio="0.83" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQhstZaMTQo9HTLX8SYMEKeibLAGvUia60icX2a44F615YN54zPHsHGmRbQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQ2U1iaW7fiamg5AEwAg1V2INgDk7iaUOsGdCp4MDlbja3WCxB7Jq3wWerQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="79.12087912087912" data-cropy2="1074.7252747252749" data-ratio="0.8291666666666667" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="text-align: left;width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQKRXr4Ff9mKhbTrQwicINhpSjO5eFxdLMINSLBMS8b61abq4QGA1ByvQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海市适龄购房人口增长整体属于HH热点区格局,除崇明区降幅较大以及南部的金山、奉贤微跌以外,其他区域保持正增长,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>浦东、青浦、松江、嘉定增速在5%以上</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">山东省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQSic4lYXCj1rcJXPFsIVasr89yCO0EgsUG7NZf4pFMDPoiaRcT5iaCFJpA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="261.53846153846155" data-cropy2="894.5054945054945" data-ratio="0.5275" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQU33UsFicymYM99PNZmFibhsjyR7GcdmNpSibQ0A7kcR61coGTGmIK4MiaQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQkn4mEpaEFNPXXpnhO2Y2JnW4KwI3sHImw64M2Iq3VXu5WmaYoy0gYg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="248.35164835164838" data-cropy2="914.2857142857143" data-ratio="0.555" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQKBDCX1NR9oqbvwKWkKZt6diakXKV8FtgKRc9QrywE9vIKx8F0ibhNsFQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">山东省适龄购房人口增长整体属于LL“冷点区”格局</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,适龄购房人口降幅普遍在-5%以下,其中,泰安、日照、淄博、威海、德州等城市降幅在-10%以下。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">辽宁省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQdUG9gvhp5NNia8Kzr99HKCNLcjl2sv4iaEKiaYJ8SOgT9yGml0z3JPwrw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="127.47252747252749" data-cropy2="1037.3626373626375" data-ratio="0.7583333333333333" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQjRqrYMpE2ibScYoHZuGpc9xXPdeTVGl1LnSYUdcHtHTqY3fsPJ7N7Kg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQRhb6KKwA9gXUp8dbsh8JT8LgfZAbenQf6U0JvRAVmomibC70R2ReJ9Q/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="138.46153846153848" data-cropy2="1052.7472527472528" data-ratio="0.7616666666666667" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQwg5LTcL9OXM0QyMSKH1tPiczptnTWc8HEUMScRV4diaU7zibATSuuNctw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">辽宁省适龄购房人口增长整体属于LL“冷点区”格局</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,适龄购房人口降幅普遍在-10%以下,其中,沈阳、盘锦、大连、葫芦岛降幅在-5%以下。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">江苏省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQHYy36tmr1EqTIuyqYUUJFibu07IP7sc20NP1utiaBqnblee7wU9gKfbg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="120.87912087912089" data-cropy2="1048.3516483516485" data-ratio="0.7733333333333333" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQTrVDQ3TQeP0mEaMWTuFcJeib2UmNxOGE6SbXAlPE0kM7KEZtGqsJzNA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQbyK5En2SWibhuribaUnh7p2HC84BJ1e7iaqLs3xCMwzZgLuoUJDdrSVjA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="96.70329670329672" data-cropy2="1050.5494505494507" data-ratio="0.795" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQPuMdg4bm8DXp6Igyf5B5mqnFjF1YLUCucUlPBomN9M54FSShTA8VCw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">江苏省适龄购房人口增长整体属于“杠铃形”分布特征——</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>南临上海北临山东的交界区域为HH“热点区”,中部盐城、扬州、泰州市为LL“冷点区”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。省内以南京市增长5.8%居首。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">河北省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQYV1cCiczG0zReuu8uPw6pldL0vf9r5N9T0SDoSEzAFKALRZtS2NgV5w/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="83.51648351648352" data-cropy2="1094.5054945054947" data-ratio="0.8425" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQDTibDoYfWLhAAgRlP5gIvrNzEiaNSmgCp7AdNMsPARdq2O4UKCbQRM1g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQb5fZ1r0UNPxTcCqsnWpcrHmcthj6NbFDXXIibL1kGmcXMU9WUOOVCKw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="92.30769230769232" data-cropy2="1087.912087912088" data-ratio="0.8291666666666667" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQDiboDHiayibqlvwPkE68Vmx2aTDiaoH2iaQtmJ4wVfyRrib4nxfudqjnAdibQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">河北省适龄购房人口增长整体分布南高北低,热点区分布在石家庄、邯郸、邢台、廊坊、沧州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,除石家庄保持缓慢正增长外,其他城市预测为负增长,其中唐山市降幅较大,约为-9%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">海南省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQJibQvA41p911gHVSLLEHvLoZKrZu3ogia4ABKRVTSCECUvy4YFRjTwjQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="162.63736263736266" data-cropy2="1004.3956043956044" data-type="jpeg" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.7018518518518518" data-w="1080" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQ4lhicyHia2tyMpbnHyC8URiaZCND0UGpWianNr4CjfDr87BvS7xBbh1zmQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQjJjv5jjDIPL9DKHvCAAJmkPdlz9KickCKdVaOJN6o3SZbtCibvJYBLtA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="554" data-cropy1="80" data-cropy2="459" data-ratio="0.6841155234657039" data-type="jpeg" data-w="554" style="width: 554px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQVmhib9INXhUIv4zqCmsPObttfibdknRDsiaHgwt9UzVMdCtaJ9oiae97kg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">海南省适龄购房人口增长整体属于 HH“热点区”,分布呈“杠铃形”特征,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>南北部维持正增长,中部山地区域人口负增长。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">广东省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQjYt8H9Ocv28kexVEDgxsWIvw8C6UjfWzP51u1NxALyNVlicVfMpd6sQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="206.5934065934066" data-cropy2="960.4395604395605" data-ratio="0.6283333333333333" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQgZAU1MzcutpCCMiaWMbwTk8lWP6qzLbu9sG4iaLTlrSsD5WTzqbLbJhw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQsnhItKLicKFibf7LxuBSXPjAKFaKHraqCtrvZVx2UGibTZqnf5BSIHVmw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="208.79120879120882" data-cropy2="980.2197802197803" data-ratio="0.6433333333333333" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQr7qOJ2qb833z208fPpPRBk6lewKAJA0micEjc16fIBC9B43MWXHnUMA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广东省适龄购房人口增长除北部韶关市为LL“冷点区”外,其他区域基本属于HH“热点区”。韶关、河源、阳江、江门为负增长,其他城市皆为正增长。</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>粤东潮汕区域涨幅较大,揭阳涨幅24%,珠三角广深涨幅较大,分别增长约12%与17%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">福建省</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQty3nabRD9iaLRj9A3c4ZQhB7OQ9bhxjBLz1tBJzYCdhu0ic8xCoY7a6A/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="85.71428571428572" data-cropy2="1072.5274725274726" data-ratio="0.8225" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQjUIcDnyWEFOIOlABIibicVzr6PQaxG6Bf6FPgAfczhiboAzZSwmLg6a7g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQJLc02M4iaxupyl3nzNLmDfCbyxycQBlNCpj0BPJ2MicfX3qaia9Up403A/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="85.71428571428572" data-cropy2="1079.1208791208792" data-ratio="0.8283333333333334" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQJiaouylxHljlWulh8OWAc6ybNeMgcXYbS368GZiaAibbcAHY1evgKV1lw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">福建省适龄购房人口增长呈现东强西弱</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,沿海区域降幅较缓,全省仅厦门市保持正增长,预测增长8%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><h1 style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24px;">北京市</span></h1><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQR4X4AAAmom3MecorYnNQMviaX1qOtiarOZiculECNNTHlYNw2eWDAfr4A/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="85.71428571428572" data-cropy2="1083.5164835164835" data-ratio="0.8316666666666667" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQbzVvds85PIXBy8TENA8LxYqgf61xHNicQCCWM7X5tibiabYyaBOk7P2FA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQ7sicxtRvblQ1BMdSjhd2MMfvUhI65icbHZa7O3tjdfLn3ic4wyjr0KaPg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="105.4945054945055" data-cropy2="1098.901098901099" data-ratio="0.8275" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="width: 546px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyK6qpCoGr6YRPFQ0LFu2gQtlVmib6Bcicqc77DSgQrG2k4J6355KWGcr50udKKWyOjOcwD7Q6rN5yA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京市适龄购房人口增长整体属于HH“热点区”</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。除中心城区、密云、延庆、石景山外,其他区预测为正增长,其中昌平区增速最快,预测增速为18.3%</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下一篇我们将展示中部省份的预测结果,敬请期待。</span></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box 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