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楼市小阳春？看看禾略AI客研平台怎么说

发布于 2026-03-18

<p></p><section><span leaf="" style="font-family: 等线;color: rgb(15, 71, 97);font-weight: bold;font-size: 20pt;">「小阳春」之下，没有统一的楼市，只有不同的人&nbsp;</span><span><font face="等线"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 等线;color: rgb(15, 71, 97);font-weight: bold;font-size: 20pt;">| 2026全国购房行为洞察</span></font></span></section><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:20.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b><p></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">最近刷行业资讯，打开十条有八条在说「</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">2026年楼市小阳春来了」：苏州二手房单月成交环比涨173%，上海二手房冲击3万套/月，北京三月上半月网签破5700套……仿佛一夜之间，所有人都要冲进售楼处买房了。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我常说，所有笼统的宏观叙事，都是用来骗外行人的。同一个「小阳春」的名词背后，藏的是完全不同的城市现实，更是三类完全不同的购房者决策逻辑。你看到的是数据回暖，没看到的是：有人攒着钱等一个入场窗口，有人握着房等一个逃命机会，还有一大群人卡在半中间，旧房卖不掉，新房不敢买，动也动不了。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这篇文章我们基于禾略</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">AI</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">客研平台最新的</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">3月行业调研——跨越一线到弱二线城市，访谈9位真实购房者，整理35篇社交平台真实样本，把刚需、改善、投资三类客群的决策逻辑拆得明明白白，不管你是要买房的普通人，还是要卖房的地产人，都能从中看到真实的当下。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">1&nbsp;</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">别被「小阳春」骗了：这不是一个市场，是三个市场</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">所有对楼市的判断，从错在开头：把中国楼市当成一个统一市场来看。实际上，</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">2026年的这个三月，不同梯队的城市，已经是完全不同的季节。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我们先把三组数据摊开看，你马上就懂了：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第一类：一线城市</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">——真实需求托底，价格企稳，核心区流动性修复</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这里说的是北京、上海、深圳三个绝对核心城市。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">今年三月上半月北京网签已经破</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">5700套，上海二手房月成交冲击3万套，深圳最长成交周期已经缩短到1周，2月新房价格京沪同步上涨0.2%，结束了连跌半年的态势，由跌转平。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">整个一线市场的信号非常清晰：真实的刚性和改善需求托着成交量，核心区的流动性已经明显改善，成交周期越缩越短，但是价格没有出现大幅上行，整体是企稳的状态。说白了，就是冻了几年的市场，开始慢慢动起来了，但是没人疯抢。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第二类：强二线城市</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">——政策托底+需求释放，回温力度甚至超过一线</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这里是成都、南京、苏州、杭州、西安这些强核心的二线城市。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">数据有多夸张？成都今年</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">1-2月二手房成交323.6万平，同比上涨18%，涨幅全国第一；苏州三月二手房成交环比涨173.4%，之前压抑了一两年的改善需求一下子冲出来了；南京2月新房价格环比涨0.3%，和另一个城市并列全国第一；西安三月预期成交破万套，去年2月才只有4859套。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">强二线的信号是：这一轮小阳春主要是政策托出来的，大量的改善换房需求集中释放，部分城市的回温力度甚至比一线还猛，只要政策给到位，需求就能出来。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第三类：弱二线</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">/三线城市——政策喊不动，库存高悬，需求根本没起来</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这里是沈阳、昆明、银川这些城市，我们看数据：沈阳出了最高</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">200元/平的购房补贴，基础补贴100元/平，卖旧买新再补100元/平，二十几条新政一起执行，但是市场根本没起来；昆明把首付比例下限降到15%，但是外围区域的新房去化周期仍然超过30个月，二手房成交量已经占了整个市场的60%，新房根本卖不动。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">弱二线的信号非常清楚：政策给了这么多利好，但是真实需求就是疲弱，二手房已经主导了市场，新房库存挂在那里，去化遥遥无期。所谓的小阳春，就是政策吹出来的泡泡，根本没接住。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我常说，你得学会把宏观数据拆开了看，才能看到真实的世界。</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">173%的环比涨幅和30个月的去化周期，同时发生在2026年三月的中国楼市，你说这是同一个市场？鬼才信。这就是三个完全不同的市场，穿着同一件「小阳春」的外衣而已，内核天差地别。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">对地产人来说，你在苏州做项目和在昆明做项目，完全是两个逻辑，用同一套打法，死都不知道怎么死的。对买房人来说，你看上海的小阳春冲进去昆明买房，那就是接飞刀，接不好把一辈子的积蓄都套进去。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">2&nbsp;</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">刚需：买房是完成家庭</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">KPI，从来不是赌行情</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">讲完了城市，我们拆人，先从最基础的刚需客群说起。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">很多地产营销人对刚需的误解是：刚需就是看价格，你降价他就买，你涨点价他就跑，所以用优惠逼定就行。错了，大错特错。这次调研给的结论非常戳人：</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">刚需购房不是消费行为，是一次「家庭</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">KPI」的履行——外部压力推动入场，内部财务红线决定能走多远。</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">什么意思？刚需什么时候决定买房，根本不是看市场行情，不是说房价跌了我就买，涨了我就不买。刚需启动决策的按钮，从来都是社会压力：到年龄了，要结婚了，要生娃了，父母催婚催到你顶不住了，压力到阈值了，不管市场怎么样，你都得买。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">调研里上海的一个刚需说：「买房就像是完成家庭的任务</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">KPI，为了满足婚姻及家庭期望」，这句话就是所有刚需的底层逻辑。针对刚需的「市场时机营销」，什么「现在不买以后涨了」「错过再等十年」，全是无用功——他们对行情涨跌的关注，远不如对「我到底能不能买得起」的关注深。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">那现在的刚需，到底是怎么决策的？我们看两个真实的访谈案例，你马上就懂了：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">上海刚需：高学历沪漂，用蒙特卡洛模拟算还款压力</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">小张，沪漂，互联网大厂员工，自己攒了一部分钱，父母帮衬了一点首付，自己做购房决策。他的核心要求非常明确：月供必须控制在税后收入的</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">40%以内，为了算清楚这个数，他自己用Excel做了蒙特卡洛模拟，把不同收入情况、不同利率情况都算了一遍。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">为什么要这么做？因为互联网行业这几年持续裁员，他太清楚自己的收入不确定性了，他算的不是房价涨多少能赚钱，是万一我失业了，我手里的储备能不能撑到我找到下一份工作，月供会不会断。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">沈阳刚需：国企技术员，全家一起决策，只认国企开发商</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">大林，沈阳国企技术员，首付几乎全是父母出，决策是一家三口一起做的。整个决策过程里，最核心的要求就是：必须买国企开发商的项目，为什么？就怕烂尾，父母攒了一辈子钱给你买房，烂尾了一辈子就毁了，所以其他都可以谈，开发商必须是靠谱的国企。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">你看，这两个案例，一个一线一个弱二线，一个自己决策一个全家决策，但是有两个共同点：第一，所有人都有清晰的量化决策底线，不会脑子一热就买房；第二，交付确定性是底线中的底线，不管你说什么，先保证能按时交个好房。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这次调研还总结了刚需客群现在普遍的三重观望顾虑，每一个都戳中要害：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第一，</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">收入稳定性焦虑</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。就像上海的小张，就算现在收入不错，也会天天担心裁员，所以一定要留足够的安全垫，月供超过</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">40%根本不考虑，他要的不是抄底涨价，是我不会断供。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第二，</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">不信数据信自己亲眼看见的</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。你说现在小阳春回暖了，数据涨了，我不信，我要自己去楼盘周边转，看市集有没有人气，看学校门口放学的时候有没有那么多人流，看配套是不是真的落地了，中介说的不算，销售说的不算，我自己看见的才算。调研里成都一个刚需说：「我更相信自己实地观察的社区生活场景，比如去市集、看学校门口的人流，而不是中介的话术」，这就是现在刚需的普遍心态</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">——他们已经建立了自己的「现实信息验证体系」，官方数据和营销话术的权重，远不如这些真实的生活信号。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第三，</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">远郊新盘的通勤居住矛盾，是解不开的结构性困境</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。预算够得着的远郊，上班要一两个小时，生活不方便；市区够得着的，预算又不够，这个矛盾不是降价就能解决的，是天生的结构性困境，所以很多刚需就卡在这儿，一观望就是一两年。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">说白了，现在的刚需早就不是十年前那个你随便忽悠两句就交钱的小白了。他们会自己算帐，会自己踩盘验证，会给自己留安全垫，情绪营销对他们早就没用了。你能满足他的量化底线，能给他足够的交付安全感，他就买，不然你说破大天也没用。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">3&nbsp;</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">改善：旧房卖不掉，就是锁死你的隐形枷锁</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">讲完成刚需，我们说现在小阳春里最核心的购买力：改善客群。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">很多人说，改善客群有钱，有意愿，只要推盘就能卖。错了，这次调研给的结论非常准：</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">改善客群不缺购买意愿，也不缺财务能力</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">——他们被旧房卖不出去这一结构性困境牢牢锁住了。</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">北京一个外企高管老李说的一句话，我印象特别深：「旧房卖不掉是我当前最大的痛点，这直接锁死了我的资金，制约了我换房的需求释放」。太对了，你想换个大点的房子，住好点，给孩子更好的环境，但是你原来的房子挂了半年，没人看，没人买，你的钱全砸在老房子里，拿不出钱付首付，你怎么换？</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这一轮小阳春为什么苏州、成都涨得这么猛？就是因为这两个城市的二手房成交量放出来了，原来锁死的换房链条动了，旧房卖得掉，改善就能买新房，所以需求一下子就释放了。而在北京、昆明这些存量流动性弱的市场，换房链条还是堵的，所以哪怕大家都有换房意愿，也动不了。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">那改善客群现在决策，到底看什么？调研总结了四个核心维度，每个都是实打实的痛点：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第一，交付确定性优先级最高，比面积、价格都重要</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">南京一个医师家庭的业主说：「面积可以缩减，但要换取交付确定性与地铁邻近」，哪怕我买小一点，我也不能接受烂尾，不能接受交房延期，不能接受货不对板。现在国企和品牌开发商的背书，已经是入场的必要条件，不是加分项了，你没这个背书，价格再便宜，改善客根本不进门。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第二，子女教育环境，是改善换房的核心动因</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">不管是一线还是弱二线，改善换房，十有八九都是为了孩子。学区质量、小区环境、周边配套成熟度，这些的优先级，比总价压力还高。你项目价格低点，但是学区不好，改善客根本不考虑，他换房就是为了孩子上学，这是核心需求。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第三，都不愿意加杠杆，财务安全是底线</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">改善客现在普遍的心态是：不想增加新的财务杠杆，手里一定要留足够的安全垫。北京的老李，哪怕是外企高管，收入不低，也要预留</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">6-12个月的生活费作为流动性储备，为什么？经历过这几年的经济波动，大家都怕了，把所有钱都砸进房子里，万一有点风吹草动，根本扛不住，所以哪怕少贷点，买小点，也要留足现金。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第四，弱二线改善，还有个资产贬值的顾虑</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">昆明一个中学老师晓芳，她给自己设了个心理底线：房价跌幅不能超过</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">20%，超过15%就只观望不买。为什么？她是换房自住，但是一辈子的积蓄都在这套房子里，她也怕资产贬值，跌个20%，半辈子的钱就没了，所以没看到足够的确定性，她绝对不出手。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我们把这些点串起来，就能得到一个非常清晰的结论：</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">改善客群是这一轮「小阳春」最真实的购买力来源，但他们的购买触发器不是价格折扣，而是三个东西同时满足：第一，旧房流动性改善，能卖得掉；第二，有明确的交付背书，不会烂尾；第三，不用新增太多杠杆，能做以旧换新。三个缺一个，意向都变不成成交。</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我们拿不同城市的改善状态对比，你马上就懂了：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">成都：二手房成交全国第一，换房链条畅通，所以改善基本没有制约，都在积极行动；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">苏州：月成交环比涨</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">173%，压抑了很久的需求一下子释放，所以爆发式成交；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">北京：二手房流动性差，旧房卖不掉，所以大部分改善都在观望，要等存量先行出清才动；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">昆明：大家都担心资产贬值，所以都在深度观望，要跌幅控制在心理底线以内才出手。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">你看，这跟开发商的产品好不好，价格够不够低，真没太大关系，完全是城市存量市场的流动性结构决定的。你在成都做改善盘，只要交付没问题，顺着窗口就能卖；你在北京做改善盘，不解决旧房流动性的问题，产品再好也卖不动。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">4&nbsp;</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">投资客：同一个市场，一半要抄底，一半要逃命</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">讲完成自住的两类客群，我们说最分化的投资客群。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">原来大家对投资客的印象是：要么一起看涨入场，要么一起看跌跑路，步调一致。现在不对了，这次调研最让我惊讶的结论就是：</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">投资客群内部已经彻底分裂，一线城市的精算师在找结构性机会，二线的生意人在主动折价逃命，一半抄底派，一半离场派，完全相反的操作逻辑。</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我们先把投资客的量化门槛摆出来，你看看现在的投资客有多理性：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:528px;mso-table-layout-alt:fixed;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insideh:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insidev:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-padding-alt:0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt;"><tbody><tr><td data-colwidth="102" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">城市层级</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">核心要求</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">操作策略</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="108" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">可接受折价</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td data-colwidth="102" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">一线上海</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">核心区毛回报率</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">4%-5%，DSCR偿债备付率≥1.1，回报率低于3.8%不碰</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">精算入场，找结构性机会</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="108" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">/</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td data-colwidth="102" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">强二线杭州</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">核心区净回报率</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">1.6%以上，带看量价转化率≥8%</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">筛选优质标的</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="108" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">/</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td data-colwidth="102" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">弱二线沈阳</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">现金流优先，安全边际</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">15%</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="159" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">快速出清劣质资产</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="108" width="159" valign="top" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">15%-20%</span></font></span><span style="font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">所有投资客现在都做压力测试：利率上行</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">25BP，加上空置6个月，我能不能扛得住，扛不住就不碰，扛得住才考虑。我们再看两个完全不同的操作案例：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">一线投资：精算入场，靠爆改赚租金，不靠房价上涨躺赢</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">上海一个</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">500强CFO，叫老林，他现在的玩法完全不是原来的「低买高卖等涨价」了，他玩的是「老破小爆改收租」：核心区拿个老破小，爆改成本控制在3500-5000元/平，改完之后能带来50%以上的租金溢价，靠租金就能覆盖成本，拿到稳定的现金流，根本不赌房价上涨。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这是一线投资客全新的玩法：原来大家都是被动等升值，现在是主动创造价值，通过改造提升租金，靠现金流赚钱，把房地产当成真的资产管理，不是赌博工具。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">弱二线投资：小阳春就是逃命波，宁愿折价</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">20%也要出清</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">沈阳一个做建材的老赵，手里握了好几套远郊的房产，他现在的操作是什么？趁着这一轮小阳春，快速变现，劣质资产宁愿折价</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">15%-20%也要卖，只要能拿到现金，亏点也认。他说，这一轮小阳春就是逃命窗口，以后更卖不掉，现在有人接盘赶紧跑。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这个信号太重要了：弱二线城市，本地产业圈的聪明钱正在主动离场，不惜折价也要出清，这说明什么？说明这些本地聪明人都不看好本地楼市的长期走势，所谓的小阳春，根本不是市场反转，就是给存量投资者出逃的窗口，你开发商还在那捂着盘涨价，等着投资客接盘，最后就是聪明钱跑了，刚需接不住，砸在自己手里。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">那投资客现在普遍都怕什么？调研总结了三个核心顾虑，全是实打实的：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第一，</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">LPR利率上行风险，全城市通用</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。利率每涨</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">25个基点，杠杆投资的DSCR就会往下掉，一旦低于1.1，就触发减仓，所以所有投资客都盯着利率走势，一点波动就能影响决策。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第二，</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">弱二线的人口和产业支撑不足</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。弱二线城市人口持续净流出，产业稀薄，根本没那么多租客，所以哪怕房价便宜，投资客也不敢碰，怕租不出去。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">第三，</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">实际空置期远超预期</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。很多投资客做压力测试，都按空置</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">6个月算，实际在很多弱二线城市，一套房空置一年都租不出去，现金流直接断了，根本扛不住。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">你看，现在的投资客，早就不是原来那种闭着眼买房躺赚的时代了，一线的精算得比机构还细，二线的聪明人都在跑，这个分化，比你想的还要严重。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">5&nbsp;</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">穿越三类客群的三个底层规律，每个都值得你记下来</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我们把刚需、改善、投资三类客群的逻辑放在一起，就能发现三个超越客群差异的底层规律，这是</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">2026年中国楼市的新基本面，不管你是买房还是卖房，都得记下来：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">规律一：量化决策底线已经成为新常态，情绪营销的时代真的过去了</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">你看：刚需把月供收入比死死卡在</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">35%-40%，改善一定要留6-12个月的流动性储备，投资客把DSCR的最低门槛设在1.1，从第一次买房的刚需，到身经百战的投资客，都在用金融工具武装自己的决策过程，蒙特卡洛模拟都用到个人买房了，你还跟他玩「限时优惠」「涨价在即」那套情绪营销，人家根本不理你。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">现在能打动购房者的，从来不是你的营销话术，是</span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">可量化、可验证的确定性证明</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。你把帐算清楚，把保障摆出来，让他自己验证，比什么都有用。靠情绪忽悠人的时代，真的一去不复返了。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">规律二：「交付确定性」已经成为跨客群跨城市的第一信任锚点</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我们看：沈阳刚需买房，必须要国企开发商才敢买；南京改善换房，面积可以缩减，交付确定性不能妥协；昆明的改善，只要实打实的法律和资金托管保障，不相信口头承诺。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">「烂尾」的恐惧，已经深度植入了这一代购房者的集体记忆，不分城市，不分客群，所有人都怕。原来品牌背书、资金托管、预售许可证这些，都是开发商的差异化加分项，现在已经变成了入场前提，你没有这些，价格再便宜，也突破不了购房者的信任关口，根本卖不动。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">对开发商来说，现在谁能把交付确定性做实，谁就能拿到订单，不然说什么都没用。这个是血的教训换回来的共识，不会变了。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">规律三：城市流动性结构，比价格更决定成交窗口</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">我们反复说，同样是改善，成都的改善能轻松成交，北京的改善就动不了，不是产品的问题，是城市存量市场的流动性问题。成都二手房活跃，旧房卖得掉，换房链条通了，所以需求能释放；北京二手房流动性差，旧房卖不掉，链条堵了，所以需求就锁死了。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">这个逻辑适用于所有客群：你在一个流动性好的城市，哪怕价格高一点，也能成交；你在一个流动性差的城市，价格再低，大家也不敢买，因为买了之后卖不掉，套进去了。所以现在买房，先看这个城市这个区域的流动性，再看价格，流动性错了，再便宜也不能碰。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">6&nbsp;</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">给地产人的行动指南：不同客群不同城市，该这么干</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">讲完了规律，我们说具体怎么做，每个结论都来自真实的调研，不是空架子：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">针对刚需客群：核心是降低决策摩擦，不要再制造稀缺感</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">原来开发商对付刚需，就是制造稀缺，「最后五套」「下周涨价」，这套现在没用了，你要做的是帮他消除不确定性：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">一线城市的刚需，大多是高学历的职场人，会自己算帐，你给他提供月供计算器、压力测试工具，帮他验证财务可行性，把通勤时间量化（别说离地铁</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">1公里，说步行10分钟到地铁，到CBD25分钟），比什么都有用；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">弱二线的刚需，大多是父母出钱，全家决策，你要做的是把国企</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">/品牌背书可视化，把资金托管凭证、预售许可证都摆出来，给父母做专属接待，把「安全感」作为核心传递的信息，就能打动他们；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">别忘了，互联网行业的刚需收入不稳定，你要多设置一个收入验证的节点，不要急着逼定，给够人家缓冲的空间。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">针对改善客群：核心是解锁流动性障碍，提供无杠杆换房方案</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">改善的核心痛点是旧房卖不掉，所以你的所有策略都要围绕这个来，分城市做：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">成都、苏州这种二手房流动性已经好转的城市：别犹豫，抓住窗口，加速推盘节奏，把改善需求尽快转化，窗口不等人，过了这个村就没这个店；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">北京这种旧房流动性拥堵的城市：重点做以旧换新，联合中介开展置换服务，甚至可以做延期交款，旧房卖了再付尾款，帮客户解决卖旧房的问题，解锁流动性约束，才能把观望变成交；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">昆明这种弱二线，大家都怕贬值的城市：核心做资产保障，给明确的保值承诺，把交付保障做实，银行监管账户、施工进度直播、竣工保险，全都摆出来，消除大家的贬值担忧；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">不管哪个城市，改善都看重教育配套，你别吹空头支票，把学校合作文件摆出来，组织实地参观，让客户能验证，比什么广告都有用。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">针对投资客群：一线给足数据，弱二线赶紧转自住</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:14.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h3><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">投资客分化这么大，打法完全不一样：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">一线城市的投资客都是精算师，你要做的是给他独立第三方的租金评估和回报率测算，把带看量、成交量这些流动性数据摆出来，满足他量化决策的需求，另外一线核心区的老破小爆改需求已经成熟，你可以针对性做产品，这块需求不小；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">·</span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">弱二线城市，你要记住，聪明钱都在跑，你就别再拿投资回报当核心卖点了，赶紧调整产品定位，转向刚需改善自住，不然就是「投资客出逃</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">+自住购买力不足」，双向挤压，去化周期拉得更长，最后死的是你自己。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">7&nbsp;</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">四个必须提前警惕的风险</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">最后我们说几个不确定性，不管你是开发商还是买房人，都要提前做好准备：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">LPR利率上行：高影响风险</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。利率上行不仅会击穿刚需的</span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf="">35%-40%月供红线，还会打击投资客的DSCR，所以开发商在蓄客阶段就要做好压力测试，给客户讲清楚利率波动的影响，能提供固定利率选项就尽量提供；买房人也要自己算好，利率涨了之后你能不能扛，不要超出自己的底线。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">旧房流动性恶化：中等影响风险</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。如果二手房成交量再次下滑，改善链条就会再次堵死，小阳春就很难延续，所以开发商要主动跟政府的以旧换新政策协同，联合中介给客户提供旧房代售保障，帮客户解决问题。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">弱二线需求断崖：中等影响风险</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。投资客出逃之后，自住需求接不住，就会出现需求断崖，所以弱二线的项目一定要早点调整定位，转自住，不要抱着投资噱头不放。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">信任危机持续：中低影响风险</span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">。大家对交付的警惕性不会下去，所以开发商一定要建立透明的交付追踪体系，引入银行监管和竣工保险，把信任做实，才能转化客户。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">写在最后</span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(15,71,97);font-weight:bold;font-size:16.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></h2><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">2026年的这个小阳春，从来不是所有人的春天，它就是三类人的三个不同的现实：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">刚需等的，是一个完成家庭任务的窗口，他不赌房价涨，他只要买得起、不烂尾、供得上；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">改善等的，是旧房卖出的那一天，旧房卖了，他才敢迈出换房的一步；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">投资客呢，一线的等一个精算过的结构性入场点，二线的等一个能逃命的窗口。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">所有人看着同一个「小阳春」的数据，却做着完全不一样的决策。对地产行业来说，这意味着什么？意味着笼统的撒网式营销，靠情绪忽悠人的时代，真的过去了。精准定位客群，搞清楚每个客群的真实痛点，给他们能验证的确定性，已经不是加分项，是营销存活的前提。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">在这个高度分化的时代，最蠢的事情，就是用同一个名词，去解释完全不同的现实。你得蹲下来，看到每个购房者真实的想法，才能赚到钱，才能买到适合自己的房子。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><i><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(21,96,130);font-style:italic;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><a class="normal_text_link" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(21, 96, 130);" href="http://xn--ATYPICA-lr4kh41ee54ak1d.AI" textvalue="" linktype="text" data-linktype="2">本文基于</a></span></font></span></i><i><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(21,96,130);font-style:italic;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><a class="normal_text_link" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(21, 96, 130);" href="http://xn--ATYPICA-lr4kh41ee54ak1d.AI" textvalue="" linktype="text" data-linktype="2">禾略</a></span></font></span></i><i><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(21,96,130);font-style:italic;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><a class="normal_text_link" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(21, 96, 130);" href="http://xn--ATYPICA-lr4kh41ee54ak1d.AI" textvalue="" linktype="text" data-linktype="2">AI</a></span></font></span></i><i><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;color:rgb(21,96,130);font-style:italic;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">客研平台</span></font></span></i><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></span><i><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-style:italic;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf="">2026年3月购房决策调研整理分析</span></font></span></i></p><p><span leaf="">想免费体验的:打开浏览器https://schat.urasr.com</span></p><p><i><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-style:italic;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><img alt="图片" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/mNkpYvnxIA2f1Odtiasl00a1CVyZhr8946lMZPh7tsovRP6SRQjD6icYB3ic4h69icw6mPmwdyl2AlY7n4thOrNsBkyRJ6uCfOibN0EkeDQY5MWI/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg&amp;watermark=1&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=10005&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=1" data-w="1080"></span></font></span></i></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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