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淘宝数据没有造假

发布于 2019-11-13

<section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><section class="xmteditor" style="display:none;" data-tools="新媒体管家" data-label="powered by xmt.cn"></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-size: 15px;">今年淘宝<span style="font-family:-apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;">双</span><span style="font-family:Helvetica, sans-serif;">十一</span></span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(51, 53, 60);">狂欢节的战果为</span><span style="color: rgb(123, 12, 0);font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">2684</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(51, 53, 60);">亿元</span></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;"><br /></p><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-size: 15px;">数据一出,迅速占领各大头条和热搜,甚至海外媒体也在感慨:中国硬生生把单身节变成了人类史上最大的购物节。</span></section><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-size: 15px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(51, 53, 60);">不过</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-family:-apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;">昨天微博上一篇4月份的文章引发了争议,内容是每年淘宝双十一的</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">销售额数据都完美分布在三次回归曲线上</span><span style="font-family:-apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;">,</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">拟合度超过</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.544px;">99.94%</span><span style="font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: 宋体;">,<span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">由此断定淘宝的双十一销售额数据造假,</span></span><span style="font-family:-apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;">并且预测2019年双十一的销售额是2675亿或者2689亿。</span></span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"></section><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 15px;">博文如下:<br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="1.6527777777777777" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNlyyHT9J9V4KztL5USseHqalicIIzDLibX6LfKNwy8ZZW0kficxpDbEGuQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" height="1030" style="" width="1080"></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.6033755274261603" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNxnFJq0CvgA1Kia1hwrx6c5BUEV702QZ6VFR5giauRKumNHRfq7wms2sw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="711" style=""></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.8540051679586563" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNXITym80S1cdpraW0dAHhl02ne0LDSsUZttaDQgZdCZH3aO4IMNMWbw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="774" height="556" style="" width="774"></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.7973333333333333" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRN0trnXq5Lmia2ibGZNxgKYbZQvQRcvZvOaTMMo4ibeaUdbNm319LnibkwYg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="750" style=""></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.7596281540504648" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNcIPWGkHibib7pwvF6hhoFt1dZvMwJACzY7f6ZwF8f6sSwHib9NLbtGTIQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="753" style=""></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.756578947368421" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRN9LsILXg39TegjM1NWaA0loqAw9E3EyhcFcgw4ylT6pPwxqiaiahhZD2w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="760" style=""></section><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这一下众网友声讨阿里数据造假,淘宝相关人士多次辟谣。可能是害怕吃到律师函,现在微博上这个话题已经被没有</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 15px;">了。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 15px;">身为一家热爱吃瓜的数据公司,对此次事件充满了好奇。因算法<span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">与<span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">淘宝的双十一数据</span></span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">存在高拟合就是造假这种说法合适吗?</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">其实并不合适。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">企业经营会设定目标,也就是业绩规划,越是重要的经营节点,越重视业绩规划,对于淘宝而言,双十一就是非常关键的经营节点,对这样一个节点进行合理的业绩目标规划,无可厚非。这种过拟合,反而可以让我们看到淘宝团队强大的执行力。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Fira Sans&quot;, &quot;Droid Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif;text-align: start;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2012-2018年淘宝双十一零售额与全年零售额占比分别为:</span></strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2012: 191亿/7467亿 = 2.56%</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2013: 350亿/11010亿 = 3.18%</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2014: 571亿/15108亿 = 3.78%</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2015: 912亿/17999亿 = 5.07%</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2016: 1207亿/21043亿 = 5.73%</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2017: 1682亿/25259亿 =&nbsp;6.66%</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2018: 2135亿/26890亿 = 7.94%</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: left;"></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">根据博文中的淘宝双十一的数据可以得出,每一年双十一的销售额</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">都在增长,且成交额占淘宝全年销售额的比例也不断提高,双十一这个节日越来越成功,对于淘宝全年销售额的贡献度也越来越高。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;widows: 1;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">每一年的天猫双11都是消费者与品牌商家共同创造新纪录的时刻,淘宝和商家所有的营销行为都是为了达成这个业绩目标做准备,因而实际值接近目标值的可能性是存在的,越是接近,越是说明淘宝团队的经营执行力的强大。</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 15px;">并且在</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">多项式拟合问题中,如果给少量的观测值(11个),而多项式的阶数又高(3阶,4个参数),就会出现过拟合,造成拟合度超过99.94%</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><br /></span></section><h1 class="detail-tit-box" style="margin-bottom: 24px;white-space: normal;font-family: &quot;pingfang sc&quot;, stheiti, &quot;microsoft yahei&quot;, arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">三次多项式的基本表达形式:</span>a3x^3+a2x^2+a1x+a0</strong></h1><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 15px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);">因此,用其证明其造假的理由还是不够充分的。</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-size: 15px;">毕竟这些年电商给国人带来的影响是有目共睹的,也实实在在撑起了很大一部分GDP。</span></section><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"></section><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"></section><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">那双十一的销售额的节节攀升,是否也代表中国社会消费也在上升呢?</span></section><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="258" data-backw="446" data-before-oversubscription-url="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNsgTJ4gVxZRcE1SkEbHO6bFsE9lsDrT2cb6R6lJALxMakcB7PBTU9wQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.57847533632287" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNxnuVlY7e9ZaWgOY84DDq0qJZkIgoiarR1LHRzcqLFeNIhcPKpYGunlQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="446" height="258" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" width="442"></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5152792413066386" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNQPW9DlOj3dMXXyUMAwVIpUTJHicOpV7XP7zdpyuZQLbljXYCOuXzREg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="949" style=""></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></p><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span>可以看到,淘宝全年销售额和双十一销售额同比增速下降,复合增长率趋缓。因此,不能因淘宝连年增长的销售额,而对中国社会消费盲目乐观。从社会整体消费趋势来看,整体增速都在下降,电商行业正越来越接近饱和。<span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);"></span></span><br /></section><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-size: 15px;"><span style="color: rgb(25, 25, 25);text-align: left;background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);">我们用之</span></span><span style="font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(51, 53, 60);">前提到的LPPL模型预测淘宝双十一峰值拐点,这里的y轴取的是双十一销售额的对数。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.6139438085327783" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8GTtHtiahicMNQ1WjdD4oRNIHG1Dzo13ib0wM1a37q5tM4mnBMEic0icA92oicNfiaIeMDgPVb9D9XqLEQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="961" style=""></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">得出峰值拐点发生在</span><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><strong>2021/11/11-2022/11/11</strong></span><span style="font-size: 15px;">之间,目前处于高位,大家应保持谨慎乐观的态度。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;">总结:</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;">1、三次回归曲线高拟合度不能证明淘宝数据造假,只能证明淘宝团队强大的执行力使得业绩增长符合<span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">业绩目标规划</span>;</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;">2、<span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">从社会整体消费趋势来看,<span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">整体</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">增速都</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">在下降</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">,电商行业正越来越接近饱和;</span></span><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;">3、<span style="color: rgb(51, 53, 60);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span>淘宝双十一销售额峰值拐点在2021年,目前仍处于高位,应谨慎乐观。</span></strong></span></p><section style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">——&nbsp; END&nbsp; ——</span><br /></section><p style="white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><section style="white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">猜你想再看<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;text-align: center;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">城市:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a 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href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">上海临港</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">太原</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">温州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">昆明</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">嘉兴</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">热点:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485505&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=90a4482d0ec14f8a4d441f77c653806c&amp;chksm=97557265a022fb7385559a6648c54242c721582b3811ad664360ea1e6f562f0f62264852c20c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-itemshowtype="0" data-linktype="2" hasload="1">深圳土拍</a></span><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831957&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a889b497d60264ef90aea585e4d4556f&amp;chksm=83517bcab426f2dc5e2b3778bc8e8834b453c4eac98c490ebeb525c4a5b01093fe602418b8fb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">美国地产</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2"><span style="font-size: 12px;">长租公寓</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">中美贸易战</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">粤港澳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">专业:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">穿越熊市</a></span>&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831371&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b15fe316680aabc64e2b7c37e5767d8&amp;chksm=83517614b426ff0229de8ab490c6a7fb33f9e7de34bae145abd3565818c5965c1eca5a4b0029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">地产研报</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831103&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ae2c7ba214abd19c76ed907399b77b7&amp;chksm=83517760b426fe767422812a59d53a334c00664a2cc146d59a076bc0e59a062f518c7df00861&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">投资</a>&nbsp;|<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831043&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dcae4bb0d9c69a6aefeb48f7447dff10&amp;chksm=8351775cb426fe4a32f43b1fe3a11ebffb7d381291adc0746d6d0ed9f3efb882617e0407aa10&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">&nbsp;思考</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830765&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d21dbefeb5e1aea1599bcec8fae7a7d4&amp;chksm=835174b2b426fda4b66776ffb3da368f2b71e44233e17581d647b246e52aa53255140e3adac0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">客研</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830698&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=27ffa7f097500e9e7fb23f99fdce51ef&amp;chksm=835174f5b426fde3854d2eec6dc6fd1c0c182faa0218d1b0ce833e50c860c23b062b88f914e0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">高周转</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830656&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dc61474f9d09133fcce2934476ea10c1&amp;chksm=835174dfb426fdc9575a9a316aef5c25d051f574d0cd96ae3d1cda189bca7c7b0b7447e403e4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">房价预测</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=37a5c454028fb849c2c5fce3b3575756&amp;chksm=835175e6b426fcf07c9d8fdee249e33edf0ae7f5684be2290c3145624ad430d880a10a654ebd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">2018房地产报告</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">远郊定位&nbsp;</a>|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829710&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58d632f4b07dc0796127ef5df605bb36&amp;chksm=83517091b426f9871fa25aed40ade8d757557347ecf505d8b9510645b5adcc6d703caed90b31&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="outline: currentcolor none 0px;">时势蓝图</a>&nbsp;|</span></section>

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