官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

深圳房地产市场周期预测

发布于 2021-11-19

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-ratio="0.32741935483870965" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzYkyCR8gqlt6ZJJynwTEe8yvZhs0Y0c3ONSbKVq0FJAjCrXBatmXu7gXnIktjEYfjW70wDKtgLjw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="620" style="box-sizing: border-box;height: 118px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;width: 359px;" /><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;letter-spacing: -1px;text-align: right;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: -20px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;z-index: 0;text-align: center;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 270.797px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 2em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;&nbsp; /&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CHAPEAU</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);color: rgb(102, 102, 102);text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从深圳市近期集中供地、住宅表现来看,整体市场都较为平淡——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1)集中供地</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">• 10月27日,深圳推出第三批集中供地,11幅涉宅用地,总建面187.2万㎡,起拍总金额352亿元,其中,主力供应区域为南山和龙岗,分别为59.1万㎡和46.5万㎡。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">• 本批次最高溢价率控制在15%,集中出让时间为11月25日。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2)住宅表现</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">• 预售证:10月共计14个项目取证,总计8457套,81.8万㎡,其中1865套为人才安居房。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">• 开盘表现:10月开盘(或加推)12次,其中“深业中城”、“万丰海岸城臻园”开盘当天售罄。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">• 银十成色不足,整体市场表现较为平淡。</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">• 单价提升值自2021年3月明显回落,并在低位区间持续8个月</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.2935323383084577" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHuYmAxKicvvqauUIfXXkCG2NERcA10YB1ndytK4woICJiaUGgVxRAPCdg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1005" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">• 楼市指数自2019年9月突破中轨后,持续保持在高位,不断逼近上轨,10月正式突破上轨,具备较强的回调动力</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.29376854599406527" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQH253prWUjJ7k0d6Ssoz4Et1tpIicKdDzLP8mMofQKvtteE2zSrGhz7BQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1011" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">注:楼市指数由综合房价的全国房价提升值的同比增长率的12个月移动平均值计算周期滤波得到,并增加布林线估计数据范围。</span></section><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></p></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">01 </span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">市场周期</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1)全国整体都在经历去杠杆,预计这轮周期的底部在2022年</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2)房价的快速攀升助力深圳本土居民积累了财富,同时也使城市承受着地产金融泡沫化的痛苦</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•2019年深圳资金总量接近8.4万亿元,相比于十年前增长了约4倍。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•城市居民财富积累一般会经历以下过程,第一个阶段,房地产市场存在大量的供应和成交,以刚需为主,形成第一波居民资产;第二个阶段,居民以原有房产进行置换,加杠杆,催生资产泡沫,这一时期改善需求大量增加。深圳目前还处在这波资产泡沫化的阶段。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3)深圳市场周期表现及预测</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•全市周期:自2021年3月,深圳整体呈现明显的高位回落,已回调8个月并延续下滑趋势,预计这一轮周期底部在2022年2-3月。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•分区县周期:都市核心区表现出良好的抗跌和修复能力,罗湖马上迎来半年以上的增长时期,福田、南山预计在2022年上半年修复;其他回暖较快的区域有龙华和坪山;宝安这一轮受挫较为严重,预计将经历长达两年的调整期;龙岗预计在22年下半年筑底。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1-1地产金融泡沫:全国</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•自2014年开始,居民负债大幅攀升,加速超过房价增速,表现为持续加杠杆的过程;而2018年之后,贷款增速逐步回落,2020年基本回归至合理区间水平并趋稳。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6218375499334221" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQH2nuFQefk0ZDjyhmSqQJuicRxjqy4Uzsf9ia1icOMSzHYr3oMsW9WjWIWw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="751" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•从房价收入增速比来看,2018年房价开始加速泡沫化过程,至2020年达到高峰,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年才表现为回落并会持续,预计2022年将是这轮周期的底部阶段。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6081081081081081" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHoazSv9Iic8yCkYicq6opkEFDhVZ0eBvJoEvplAIt6Ie0UP3pceRnvbQg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="814" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1-1地产金融泡沫:深圳</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•2014-2015年居民住房贷款大幅攀升,之后紧接着房价迎来暴涨,而同期收入水平保持平稳增长。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6423841059602649" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQH5fYpud3zx1eDKYPFXJ7icFibv9xJiba1LJWjPvoz9axKcicYPPa8AP4Z3A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="755" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6215880893300249" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHv3ibKAiarNgFgiapBia5TUdAULicRfTFtUrkiaILXBWxBxzcD62tChrfUGZw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="806" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1-2 整体市场周期</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">年初,市场综合价格受到二手房指导价干预,出现盘整,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>预计整体市场2022年3月以后进入平稳增长期</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.38687782805429866" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHzcOdFOmkIibXF4ky1uNnhNpZ2XOr4r0u6eJu8MfpPTjjjAW7WhF9Utg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1768" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">数据来源:房价网一手房和二手房供给单价</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">注:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">①综合房价是一手房供给单价和二手房供给单价的几何平均值</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">②2021年10月均价同比涨幅=(2021年10月一二手房均价-2020年10月一二手房均价)/2020年10月一二手房均价<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">③数据截止至2021年10月,2021年11月-2023年7月为预测数据</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1-2 整体市场周期</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4339943342776204" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHic8WnwTPS1SQ1CXLYAW6G4pdPJC4IBMiccgUkMIvuejGLFgDQF4ZOJ7g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1765" style="" /></section><section data-role="outer"><section data-role="paragraph"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">数据来源:房价网一手房和二手房供给单价</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">注:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">①综合房价是一手房供给单价和二手房供给单价的几何平均值;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">②房价提升值=上海综合房价/全国综合房价</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">③数据截止至2021年10月,2021年11月-2023年7月为预测数据</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1-3 区县市场周期</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.42812006319115326" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHzHLBhfFKZFQ7Rg42icLpdqevCqJWJsRTicRvJgvQTDItr6kML9Mg2TGQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1899" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1)宝安区</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,宝安区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈持续下滑态势</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,自2021年2月价格突破历史新高74170元/㎡后,跳崖式下跌后平稳下滑,10月价格创全年新低59164元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.17131001778304683" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHqx7h65kmNnjnbDRLW1rR8Gu1gmFhJS2jJsJiawic0cTT6lJad0zcZLVw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1687" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,宝安区市场正处于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>下探筑底阶段,底部持续震荡预计将持续至2023年6月</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.1844106463878327" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHwaciaxoMaCq10Gd0a6TAIykk1bhiaTlCDX7sGSg2Hok4V4ibJxQWOBp2g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1578" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2)龙岗区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,龙岗区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈现同比跌环比稳态势</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,振幅较小,目前综合价格约为43000元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.19865642994241842" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHfYXmyMYFX8QrKCwVBIzpAQV7Aialo3enCZc0UEwzoibkgKDmNG3lX02w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,龙岗区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>刚进入下探筑底周期,预计2022年9月市场回暖</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.17370441458733205" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHufxC7HXiaZMsGgIw0vbVrEVT4tfRiaOqT52cVDRI7qt2kWg98as13icTQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3)南山区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,南山区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈现同比跌环比稳态势</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,综合价格小幅下滑至107892元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.16248574686431014" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHNAWdNMDB1LgokWKRTmY0BnBqzmaxG8bW1ePybUg9sge7BsMYPhrYaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1754" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,南山区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>正处于下探筑底初期,预计2022年4月市场回暖</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.1890595009596929" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHt6Gu8ibgOyicS0xkfOBau4xK1NpuAxWnXjsRrGhb85C1sic3VfiaGx8Stw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">4)光明区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,光明区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈现平稳波动</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,10月综合价格为45520元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.20153550863723607" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHKn9xLWCEsiaX77Q2jT6FE2qMEmicsKj8ViceKEibKDmrwsQchlnpXL7hLA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,光明区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>持续高位回落震荡阶段,预计2022年7月市场将进入信心持续下落阶段</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.1689059500959693" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHwRHkox23XKiaicPlRiaQHELHGUumh7ic3B2BG9iazD9cuhIfkicZAyWI8NibA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">5)福田区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,福田区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈突破高点后持续下滑态势</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,自2021年1月价格突破历史新高107178元/㎡后,环比跌超6个百分比后平稳下滑,10月价格94286元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.1644236395552955" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHCf5gibyicsvQm4gXBy5NeaHlWy41UMCBmuw1wYC4blToQUlictzpxY6Dw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1709" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,福田区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>刚步入下探筑底周期,预计2022年5月市场触底反弹</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.18234165067178504" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHzibhIKE14ibWYnTEbK7cBSNgkLdQ0zaVTPUuhy3e1EtKL5AibzNfWZgrg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">6)罗湖区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,罗湖区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈突破高点后持续下滑态势</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,自2021年2月价格突破历史新高72644元/㎡后,正经历箱体震荡阶段,10月价格66931元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.1687315634218289" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHjnPndQPBHMsAVtW8WOzf3QcQ2We6AL3sAgiaqZicgytdIu8ku806yDxA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1695" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,罗湖区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>正处于底部震荡周期,即将转入上升周期</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.17754318618042225" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHl6pPlGnGjLZaUhwzo8xR54sicFq843fOF4eQ7eulngEg70Z0rAfoPqg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">7)高新区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,高新区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈突破高点后持续下滑态势</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,自2021年2月价格突破历史新高121653元/㎡后断崖式下降,正经历箱体震荡阶段,10月价格106139元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.16257843696520252" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHIiaPm7D9jMBWL3S6Dsz4x8yd83l644N7bKxc5DtAd8lyyobH7gNWt3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1753" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,高新区市场正处于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>下探筑底中期,预计2022年1月市场回暖</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.17946257197696738" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHzZbU5fXCu91o2KvRWtvtU9LW9icBdlaOgXSTRmjQTiaLhmVjkxogibPqg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">8)龙华区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,龙华区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈突破高点后平稳震荡</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,自2021年2月价格突破历史新高66179元/㎡后,环比跌超7个百分比后平稳波动,10月价格60195元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.20441458733205375" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHpSJjYsfQK8iaianYibOXFoXfkfGwibT0ibEmzG9qQnauEqvVVvfjHNKmsSg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,龙华区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>正处于下探筑底中期,预计2022年1月市场回暖,2022年5月市场进入上升通道</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.1746641074856046" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHkeZFKrteCIpiatuceJEw1V96gyT7hKWNK93iaDYict7jKoicNicQ76NUU3A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">9)坪山区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,坪山区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体呈现平稳波动</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,10月价格35743元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.20153550863723607" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHYltu45wXlxF7Vc7BcIsOIvsBMDhs2FWITBvsPDd9vPVBAicibED8MaXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,坪山区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>正处于下探筑底中期,预计2022年3月市场回暖</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.18809980806142035" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHEpsUry8P6Drono8CAs1caUSErtTLBLP1eFqX9TgwdZZTGAoE49D0gg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">10)盐田区</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•通过综合单价走势,盐田区</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2021年综合房价整体处在上升通道阶段</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,自2021年2月经历市场盘整后迅速恢复,向上爬升,10月价格62693元/㎡</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.17495611468695144" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHU4FBQ6B5dVycknomzG9M9O9GXQ4kSgnHcMCMkddRbiaEzslaFmTibiciaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1709" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过市场周期模型,盐田区市场</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>正处于下探筑底初期,预计2022年4月进入短幅市场回暖周期,2022年11月市场信心持续回落</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.1871401151631478" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHMhP1jMNFJNibawRF6nA8NicfqYsyr9PkR1naHljaa4VRxLmH88FzcYEQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1042" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">数据来源:一手、二手商品房成交数据,来自禾略研究院</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">02&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>发展趋势</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">2-1</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">空间扩张</span></strong></span></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">元胞自动机(cellularautomata,CA) 是一种时间、空间、状态都离散,空间相互作用和时间因果关系为局部的网格动力学模型,具有模拟复杂系统时空演化过程的能力,特点是时间、空间、状态都离散,每个变量只取有限多个状态,且其状态改变的规则在时间和空间上都是局部的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="283" data-backw="381" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="406" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7208333333333333" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHth2Q3RpTh5CvYDImA0oNXFC029brnq0WBwJPnPcgYWmCxMgguPH3ag/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="720" style="width: 563px;height: 406px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">深圳城市2008-2025年土地扩张走势与预测</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="321" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5848007414272475" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHUG2LMVvOOpictcLQciayOMibZjn1BOiac87z6GWqhIiazLgwOtXHicLJK5yA/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="1079" style="width: 549px;height: 321px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2-2人口结构</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•深圳目前20-35岁的青年人口占据置业人口的48.7%。</span></section><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">•随着时间推移,作为主力的青年人群将逐步迈入中年、老年阶段,后续年轻人口数量会呈现断崖式下跌,2030年20-35岁青年人口占比下降到19.8%,2040年将继续下降到10.1%,到2050年才会缓慢回升到16%。相应置业需求也会随着这波主力人群发生变化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="453" data-backw="454" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="545" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHkWKJAf2KBz5KvgLaKckuJoTh0R8hemtleZ8E6lzj05kSElbs3Z6gmQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="864" style="width: 546px;height: 546px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="534" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6045081967213115" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHrd1LcQUaPE8F3kb66YJKHR1fEEYNt8lnvBQMnIiaqDWFNSib6L8GPWiag/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="976" style="width: 578px;height: 350px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2-3人口密度</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.9599236641221374" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHshsXiaWm6KUgC9ZyxSfNMndMNyALgfRLfLYLfyh3uBatibFHVAlPibuCg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="524" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6935724962630793" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHXwIZ1LtqhJj508KV3Iv9fad8DnUbgLpnLBT5w0dz100bXwM8EeUPdg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="669" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6561151079136691" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHnGIjW8daFn8vprS7qA577lGHkHEACicjr3qM9Sp1yamGXvet4dvuKmw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="695" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2-3人口密度</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6945454545454546" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHQlI82rsqyPuJXyy5C31eCerlfBOfTU6Ha9jsZdfnygrs6zx3lfY4Yg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="825" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6658795749704841" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQH3z4ycuchJK4obeFhyOyGlxFuHOKu1XBLicsVAqF2sibabm6RTxibe67WQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="847" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">注:①人口密度均值倍数=人口密度/综合平均密度</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2-4 土地价值</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6707946336429309" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHD9H3zicyAPC2x6MeT320ibnm6DBsB1NOPBAYjU9f0l3HXLDk8D3btW3Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="969" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8824175824175824" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHdcEUVX19pd55V0RG1QTgM9s2PQlo4mFmaWwaRaWXMNCoicNsn2X077A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="910" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2-5 区域潜力</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">•优先推荐:高新、南山和福田</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">•次优推荐:龙华、罗湖</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">•机会关注:龙岗、坪山</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.35892006352567496" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHDdhrDD6VhGlrJsaicJHEjsicakb9bkvqWwLYDu5h9ELFrZvxHg1a3LIg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1889" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">指标解释:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">a.价格水平:对比全市的提升值</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">b.趋势判断:2021.7-2022.6的月度牛熊情况</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">c.所处阶段:当前信心周期</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">d.拐点时间:筑底周期</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">评分方法:熵值法</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">03&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">结语</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></span></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">今年前三季度,深圳经济GDP相对失速了,是高房价压抑了中小企业的活力?是受外部环境影响头部企业频频受挫?还是深圳其实正在实现“深圳速度”向“深圳质量”的转变?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3-1 城市负债</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">•政府低负债和居民高负债的两级分化,使得整体城市的债务水平显得模糊不清。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">政府低负债</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">深圳是政府负债率最低的大城市,深圳的政府负债率(政府债务/财政收入)为6.8%,远低于北上广(其中,北京30%,上海22%,广州19%)。政府财政状况也非常健康,2019年深圳的土地依赖度为19%,而同期北京29%,上海28%,广州107%,也是一线城市中最低的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">居民高负债</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">房产泡沫化为最大表象,年初深圳的二手房均价为8.95万元/㎡(二手价指导前),居民可支配收入6.48万元,房价收入比为1.38,北京为0.95,上海为0.85,广州为0.63。深圳的住房贷款约占贷款的99.7%,而上海仅为60%。深圳的住户存款远低于住户贷款,在一线城市中垫底。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.2368633791430881" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHTfHa5dUqDKL9o4WNAPxicjT1tmKrRBVcq6DpPnGHS9RgyU7dQ7ibuDCg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1237" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3-2 增速换挡</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">•经济增长边际效益递减的同时,依靠技术创新推动曲线右移成为增长的关键。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">基于国际上的历史观察和比较,曾有学者提出“增速换挡”,“新5%比旧8%好”。从经济学逻辑出发,经济增长的边际效益递减,基于的前提假设是技术水平不变,而当人们实现技术升级突破,甚至完成相应的制度安排更新(技术背后的深层原因),那么将为经济增长提供新的动力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.24770642201834864" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQH8dkqlSBoKS13zKOznYZGgr8piaqMMx5Q0bJcoeLGiaWEibib7ibGKpHnMng/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1526" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">•深圳的劣势在于高校、基础科学环节薄弱,而深圳的优势在于市场化的技术创新,在资本、人口红利消退的大趋势下,技术创新能否成为深圳增长的第二极,还有待时日验证。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3-3 城市吸引</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">•人才聚集和产业外迁同时发生,深圳的吸引力似乎在下降。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">人才集聚</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">根据普查数据,从六普到七普,深圳人口增加了713万人,常住人口达到1756万人。每10万人中拥有大学文化程度的人口数从17545人(2010)上升为28849人(2020),分别比全国、全省多13382人和13150人。全国前20强大学的毕业生,有超过20%投奔深圳。深圳依然是人才吸引力最强的城市。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">产业外迁</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">与此同时,由于房价和租金过高,以及产业腾笼换鸟,可以看到大量的企业向外迁移到东莞、惠州等周边城市。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.22032450896669514" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy8BRO1tW2M2iaORrnamvtQHWMkJppBmSFibnVWibZZahVNk2TSpgWuBg16paxeRsZibcwzyhjKaVHWhg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1171" style=""></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">高房价让整个城市承受着地产金融泡沫化的痛苦,但纵观来看,深圳整体还保留着诸多经济增长优势,深圳的自由包容开放、高效的城市管理等是名片也是根基,那么正逐渐抛弃小微创新优势的旧深圳,能否迎来再上一个新台阶的新深圳,考验的是决策者的智慧和决心。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">///</span></p><p style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·「禾略问答」·</span></section><p><a class="weapp_image_link js_weapp_entry" data-miniprogram-appid="wxf051804df9944e68" data-miniprogram-path="pages/index/index" data-miniprogram-nickname="禾略问答" href="" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.33830455259026687" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxgXqtJ7x2ATMbtIm1oBmTM5cLtzxaHKiaJINP1DiaedwSS8oUuQadhFxpcXZiaWxTvWyWxXichXeiaGHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1274" style="" /></a></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;·<span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">「HotTina」</span>·</span><br /></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><a class="weapp_image_link js_weapp_entry" data-miniprogram-appid="wxdcdd1e610d71ae74" data-miniprogram-path="pages/serch/serch" data-miniprogram-nickname="HotTina" href="" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="120" data-backw="389" data-ratio="0.30973451327433627" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxBKiaQNH3yAajSVKNDghYCq5gnROOAWjmdwIqhP9gBLpU9iaicBb19EGQVKpTzeP0lOXYyF5icG1y74Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="791" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></a></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">*</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▷往期文章彩蛋:不要戳开!!!</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500345&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=93797fca0ea11825bcc9e5e1c0109c52&amp;chksm=9756b81da021310ba7a377bdce7ef2877fb30eb246731c626bffd343008b77703527595ad2ed&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="top: auto;left: auto;margin: 0px;right: auto;bottom: auto;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugLLibwPxIshPkhYb8rUpx6OiaokEiaiaoQAs4pBYvOk4KlGWhp5OagMyWaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0px;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500355&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=2c6ce758ab3881befb2fbba0ba3603f1&amp;chksm=9756b867a021317120bad43bc938ebb4cdb2953af8c54167618f6a0d2e10e4a0c0dbbeb90f65&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="top: auto;left: auto;margin: 0px;right: auto;bottom: auto;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xug2z2ZNw3efskOCCTiaR2MZIrkVnqNUUySzc8kPhT5aLfLE1SvHGhoJUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0px;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500384&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ce96c211a2ed19ee560b34d30d321292&amp;chksm=9756b844a0213152bb36ae4ebc877ea634416495af8892942074d23f0d1b5581b32b705c0835&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="top: auto;left: auto;margin: 0px;right: auto;bottom: auto;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugNEZT4DD88icwcAl08ZuziaiadYt82wzZG5n14t7224xWjyeK8SNXNIp8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0px;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6f4fcd10bc90a8f72744416eda3995a4&amp;chksm=9756b9cca02130da9094518319d318ca4fd11413c1213d18be9cc9d8302528b34816fdd34394&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="top: auto;left: auto;margin: 0px;right: auto;bottom: auto;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugA8lpBib3AWM95x6tIIxu56bryKOYOVyRWzd6jsYRjicIiaF1hohgrpN1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0px;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500347&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dffbd70a87a2f5610cf728e4970ec869&amp;chksm=9756b81fa0213109c740e135c93ac90c20e029871a10bf1ad6d116f9d663d7a26b7d8a673bbe&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="top: auto;left: auto;margin: 0px;right: auto;bottom: auto;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugMQjVx8C1LeClYXAgR1lKe771SGnJj9TxohSmoF4W79ORTDc52UmmNQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0px;" /></span></a></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2021 | 真好野</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="93717" data-width="95%" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 627.938px;flex: 0 0 95%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7QRTvkK2qC6tIGvc3ozCHcBonywI7fDV4Ksmoy5hWQHibq7TQpAQ5tricOQ7dnLg81iapxGeoUkic5Ob8vHOSI24xQ/640?wx_fmt=png&quot;);background-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 13px;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="392" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="554" data-ratio="1.7863894139886578" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIx8UwB2bzR0jHJiayhlZaiaAX6kcUD0cWT2TGpIxiacj2rm0F4icSkNxfGcgOhJXpzMZepcFbQicd18G9w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1058" style="height: 700px;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;width: 392px;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" title="好.png" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;「 www.urasr.com」&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);caret-color: red;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 10px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">#BE TRUE&nbsp; #BE WELL&nbsp; #BE WILD</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(163, 163, 163);letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;caret-color: red;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">*</span><br /></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关注分享</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="18" data-backh="18" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="47" data-backh="47" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼▼▼</span></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section>

← 返回观点全库