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深圳楼市调控从哪来?到哪去?

发布于 2020-07-23

<section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 22.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">7月15日,深圳出台史上最严厉限购政策,填补以往政策漏洞,为房地产降温。历来作为楼市风向标的深圳,这次调控是否空穴来风?深圳楼市究竟是一副怎样的画面?是全面过热还是结构性过热?</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 22.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.36335642802155504" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX8mEXgx1sTOjhM6iaDDvmNhhAE4XWrSPDvYK8yQsXTZqceu1RHjw4cHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2598" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 22.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span><span style="text-align: center;text-indent: 34px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">图1:</span><span style="text-align: center;text-indent: 34px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">一线城市二手房价格走势</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: center;text-indent: 34px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">对比4座一线城市,可以看出,最近3年,广深价格上涨明显,上海横盘,北京在波动中甚至略有下降。进入2020年,受疫情影响,4城价格均有所回落,而4月份生产逐渐恢复以来,4城价格走势又呈现出和最近3年相似的规律,只是这次,</span><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳已经超越上海和北京,在高位领跑,增速更是一骑绝尘。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.36484375" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwq8M9UFib0JIPV8beol4QUOVvFHOTppjLV3MiaTibH2b5DQ12cgy71yNgvotapGNS48T1McTY2QpbuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">图2:</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">深圳各区一手房价格走势</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.3854573885848319" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwq8M9UFib0JIPV8beol4QUOibTOOV4zBqcub1qicJjDg3Am7oibODsTfpDta3fGjQ0KbCO0rQ7VKe49g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1279" style="" /></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;"></span></span><span style="text-align: center;text-indent: 34px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">图3:</span><span style="text-align: center;text-indent: 34px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">深圳各区二手房价格走势</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: center;text-indent: 34px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">从深圳各区内部结构看,2015年上半年股灾过后,热钱大量涌入楼市,下半年开始,深圳新房和二手房价格均暴涨,2016年325楼市调控政策出台,4年来,新房价格整体来说被稳住,但二手房价依然止不住一路上扬,进入2020年,疫情也没有阻止房价上涨的脚步,南山、福田、宝安三区更是暴涨,情况颇似2016年325调控之前,历史总是惊人的相似,715调控应时而出。</span><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">所以,</span><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这次调控并非空穴来风,疫情过后,深圳楼市确实过热,但并非全面过热,南山、福田、宝安三区成为楼市过热的主战场,罗湖为次战场,盐田和龙岗则相对平稳</span></strong><span style="font-size: 15px;">,为什么会出现这种结构性过热的画面呢?下面禾略带您从城市基本面和市场基本面入手,看看深圳究竟是一座怎样的城市?是否还有结构性的机会?<br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">- PART 1&nbsp;-<br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">城市基本面</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>&nbsp;城市能级&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 22.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 22.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳在2020年</span></span>全国城市能级划分中排名</span><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第3</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">,和上海、北京一起,组成了中国城市实力最强的第一梯队。</span><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 22.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.45" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzK0DpGXpLPmNb2X53DTIFcvXL8jBTcFA7w2BiaOUuvXOnQQLatEuGribISl39hjEcsv6BmAJmwSwGw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图4:2020年全国城市能级划分</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br />&nbsp;经济基本面</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="line-height: 22.5px;font-size: 15px;">城市GDP和财政一般预算内收入规模稳步上升,2019年分别达到2.69万亿和4230亿,金融机构人民币存款余额2015年迈上新台阶后高位增长,2019年达7.38万亿。城市产业升级效果显著,除2018年外二三产占比差距逐年扩大,2019年二三产占比分别为37.01%和62.98%。</span><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">从经济基本面来看,城市发展依然强劲。</span></strong><span style="line-height: 22.5px;font-size: 15px;"></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5853658536585366" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXiaV2j9cIqVQib201N5O81rPNS3ZAe45zKcPopYZK1zbvf1f3M0tiaXeCg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2460" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图5:深圳历年经济指标(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>&nbsp;人口基本面</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="line-height: 22.5px;font-size: 15px;">2019年常住人口1343.88万,2009-2019年常住人口年均增加34.9万;2019年户籍人口473.8万,仅占常住人口的35.25%,吸附全国各地外来人口870万,规模上名列前茅,结构上独一无二;2019年小学生人数达105.35万,10年来年均增加4.74万人。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5517241379310345" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXibkBlKCBos2zq4h6ZWeTZPMgnYiaYycrg9pegibCKL9XQEDstZiaLmBhzg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2465" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.16542904290429042" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX6eXzhCM5kELJWiacLqgXeflMQezibiaUEjzhTUK8hNdBnRcvMuczdDudQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2424" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图6:深圳历年人口指标(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="line-height: 22.5px;font-size: 15px;">从人口分布和流动来看,2020年人口高度聚集于罗湖、福田、南山、宝安沿河沿海地带,这些地方汇聚了深圳的金融、科技、工业等支柱产业,盐田和龙岗人口相对较少;人口流动也呈现出相同的规律,甚至人口不算最密集的宝安西北部也成为人口流入地区。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="line-height: 22.5px;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此,城市发展的人口支撑力强,且有强者恒强的趋势,即吸附大量外来人口、小学生人数增长快,且</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">人口高度聚集于产业发达的西部四区沿河沿海地带。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.396420581655481" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX0xb6E4SRic7wJs0VAaJQfKA6MTcsXnUfytzicZ1Ep7plZ7QJrv7dMy7A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2235" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"></span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">图7:</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">深圳2020年</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">人口分布(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.39740724184175236" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXzbC1udWpZmENN0oLCvdTjNuCcoJ2OuqR2YDnfmdKQnuNEKslVgIF0g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2237" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: center;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">图8:</span><span style="text-align: center;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">深圳2020-2021年</span><span style="text-align: center;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">人口扩张(图片截自禾略种子)</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>&nbsp;土地基本面</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;"><span style="line-height: 22.5px;font-size: 15px;">受到辖区面积和用途限制,深圳建成区已经基本饱和,建成区面积和城市建设用地面积均超过900km²,城市居住用地面积为263.25km²,10年来年均增加仅5.2<span style="font-size: 15px;">km²</span>,土地十分紧张。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5974969721437222" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXsebTZIbE9jeznxNb76SkQibmUPibQE0xAprF2BbibB9RurlP92A3HruVA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2477" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图9:深圳历年城市建设(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">选取</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">一系列</span>反映交通通达性、生活配套资源和产业资源的指标,进行熵值法打分,用来衡量土地现状成熟度;根据自动元胞机技术,对未来一些年段土地扩张速度进行预测,熵值法打分后用来衡量土地未来价值;再将两者综合,作为土地综合价值。将价值得分根据自然分段法划分为5个等级,从红到绿价值依次递减。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">土地现状成熟度跟人口分布情况类似,成熟度较高的土地集中于罗湖、福田、南山、宝安沿河沿海产业带,以及原属宝安的龙华新区,盐田和龙岗成熟度不高。土地未来扩张较快的区域则集中于南山、宝安及与东莞、惠州接壤的部分区域。综合来看,价值较高的土地多集中于罗湖、福田、南山、宝安,另外,龙岗的坪山、坪地、龙岗街道和大工业区也不错。<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此,从土地基本面来看城市发展,深圳用地紧张。成熟度高的区域楼市持续火热,龙岗部分地区土地成熟度不错,但楼市没有太激进。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.571027512633352" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXTxJltOLNzibVAnvScUuLruMTRbohnxP9ad5ydJyYtibGWNnMib2eEc7Mw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1781" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">图10:</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;">深圳土地现状成熟度(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.3953488372093023" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXXvqZSV0WmbL9rJhajq035ibkYeibKDtUNU12joI7WXh1c7Yhibvgh4cDA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2236" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">图11:</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">深圳土地未来价值(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.3971441320838911" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXXbUZM4APuHmJm7azYEZM92ZkmicPeZALsRg2AOicKfZC7ka7icJpd6ocQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2241" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">图12:</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">深圳土地综合价值(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">- PART 2 -</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">市场基本面</span></strong></section><h2 style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><br /></h2><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">销售金额</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">商品住宅销售额在2015年猛涨121%,2016年调控后有所下降,2017-2019年再次持续快速上涨,从2533亿元上涨至4654亿元,2年涨幅83.7%。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.16528239202657807" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXwKVT3iaItiarGhEnwv4tdKV8tQxahiaXLpib39NhnzZD3Rv7Ggo9zia0NCg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2408" style="" /></p><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图13:深圳市历年住宅销售额(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">销售面积</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">商品住宅销售面积在2009年出现过一个高峰,达717万平米。2010年回落并持续至2014年保持在较低规模,2015年再次大幅增长,超过2009年规模,达747万平米,2016年调控后略有回落,2016-2019年平稳增长,从660万平米增至873万平米。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.1468416735028712" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXa4ThuAeHgcVCgL2bueYHYSicDibiaCnLpAIhGn1PffonLJP2sJIXkDQeg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2438" style="" /></p><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图14:深圳市历年住宅成交面积(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">销售价格</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">销售价格在2007-2019年持续上涨,其中2014-2016年上涨迅猛,调控后涨速有所放缓,但上涨趋势不变,2017-2019年从50505元/㎡上涨至63381<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">元/㎡</span>,2年涨幅25.5%。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.1511437908496732" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX2H90tQnDp1VYjsJkmGFswmMicwVq70oP5uAltflCRxzl8hB2JURpI8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2448" style="" /></p><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图15:深圳市历年住宅成交均价(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">市场库存</span></strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.422px;"><li style="font-weight: bold;"><p><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">广义库存</span></strong></p></li></ul><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">广义库存4年来先下降再回升,2020年3月为548万平米。以18个月销</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">售量移动平均值为月去化量,则目前广义库存去化周期大概为</span></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">11</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">个月</span></strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">。<br /><br /></span></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.1937857726901063" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX4oTW5jUkVJw5niamOSQPY5jjibL7hQal87hXAqcomZylyeo4KVwH40UA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2446" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图16:深圳市历月住宅广义库存(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.422px;"><li style="font-weight: bold;"><p><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">远期库存</span></strong></p></li></ul><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">远期库存4年来缺口持续扩大,2020年3月达4190万平米。以18个月销售量移动平均值为月去化量,则目前远期库存去化周期缺口为</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">86</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">个月</span></strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">。<br /><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.19272125723738626" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXoqRnT56edhJkU0QPQa7bDpANsCWGO9swdwuJ7cic01ibCUk7pXiakG8Sg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2418" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图17:深圳市历月住宅远期库存(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">区县房价现状</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">从房价现状来看,深圳各区6月份环比涨跌均在3%以内,其中涨幅最大的为福田和南山;同比来看,宝安和福田均超过13%,南山为9.59%,罗湖为5.23%,正是楼市过热的主战场和次战场,盐田和龙岗则表现平稳。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.4672268907563025" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwq8M9UFib0JIPV8beol4QUOR0RJuhubtPhHDMtEq6ibye3iaa0fglI055wBvqky4EXOMvj5Rhia7icenA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1190" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图18:2020年6月深圳各区房价(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;"></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">网格实际房价</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">高房价地比人口分布更集中,基本在楼市过热的4个区连成的沿河沿海产业带,尤其是南山和福田,盐田的梅沙街道凭借旅游资源推高了房价,龙岗部分成熟度不错的地方,房价依然处于相对低位。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.3958891867739053" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXsoJ9GYZymyTqQDxicASkjlWqJUJaZiaE6W6mk134Kbn7ohichEib2bRyFw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2238" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"></span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">图19:</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">2020年6</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">月深圳</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">房价(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此,从市场基本面来看,深圳楼市在2016年325调控之前有过一次过热,但调控只是短期遏制了房价的过快上涨,很快楼市再次火热,远期库存缺口逐渐扩大。过热楼市呈现出集中于产业成熟地带的结构性趋势,龙岗部分较成熟的地方,并没有表现出过热。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">- PART 3 -</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">市场决策</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.544px;">基于以上分析,那深圳市场还有机会吗?这波调控是否能达到预期效果呢?</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.544px;">禾略认为,只要认清地块价值,踩准投资时点,如果城市发展持续向好,则结构性的机会依然存在。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">赢率赔率</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">禾略定义的赢率是地块网格现状成熟度对城市水平和全国水平的均值倍数取几何平均数而得。赔率是3段时间区间(2018-2021年、2019-2022年、2020-2023年)内土地扩张速度的算术平均值。概括来说,</span></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;"><strong>赢率是做这件事情有多大概率能成功,赔率是成功了会有多高的回报。</strong></span></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;"></span></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;"><strong>可以看出,高赢率区域还是集中于楼市过热的地方,这些地方成功的概率大;高赔率区域则除南山和宝安部分区域之外,还有宝安和龙岗靠近东莞的一些区域,这些地方虽然成功的概率不大,但一旦成功,回报很可观。<br /></strong></span></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.3955156950672646" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXOhwJlrhna53nlfoASsErKia2UWyUbM8Rw4OusPQdhSfibaNlDcaB93bQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2230" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图20:地块赢率赔率(图片截自禾略种子)</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">&nbsp;</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">市场机会</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">从周期来看,深圳各区目前均处于</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">向上冲高期</span></strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;">,<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">此时市场信心高涨,买卖双方都很活跃,市场流通性强,成交量大,价格上涨有一定的支撑。</span></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">除龙岗和盐田外,其他4个区房价未来一年基本没有泡沫。<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">预测未来一年,目前过热的罗湖、福田、南山、宝安房价增幅依次为19.4%、11.6%、12.6%、17.9%,而龙岗和盐田房价增幅依次为0.7%、6.7%。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21094369547977795" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXBTMucvcWicFXicxVBWc7IfCgZbP2zPv9MnEQVIicFEQSqChIgOnORKn5Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2522" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.22543581616481775" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXN4AoKf7cXuDviaice5iaFcPr011rsfqcOlk5q3u8V7icAzyOSMGqoesJ5w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2524" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图21:罗湖区周期&amp;楼市景气指数&amp;综合价格走势(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21768437747819191" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX2oldK6ossY4tzeupUb6uIvUEuJ2KFE0DDPcyjSic6icej3JD7LadP0vw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2522" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21123417721518986" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX1bGlTwIRfEB3IibVYpv9VDMd9EDaiaYkYpmyOUIab88ltU5315S3rJXg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2528" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图22:福田区周期&amp;楼市景气指数&amp;综合价格走势(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21451229183187945" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXBdOByyVppyD5NQYGU4jhFIXjuhBPdwpC10Pks8ghuLej9VnUVRDPRA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2522" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21490880253766853" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DX9Qh3qCibsAM6IPwUg4LtgfNHgpswnCICFA54icv5l2YVp24Gy9CoRghg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2522" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图23:南山区周期&amp;楼市景气指数&amp;综合价格走势(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21434231378763866" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXrS8SosPwL7Lwf56ia2iahbicEma5f78lJficEIQicJtpERIKxticibY6OqhwQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2524" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21553090332805072" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXQCbWLq9tvXnaRJdyKbrdib9XDaTs9wPc0BJjibmN6jQ9DDzwrww62j8g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2524" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图24:宝安区周期&amp;楼市景气指数&amp;综合价格走势(图片截自禾略种子)</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21194147884539344" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXxDqHiaoXSjkXLwwic5r4H8KCEGyeMvxr6AALW2gV5ea4VaCsy9ggyXyA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2529" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.2115079365079365" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXNcRjpUcL7ZKbTMkdufLiau1ERp8Z8bh4qVic5V4BUCP0JZY4d4ibSiazKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2520" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图25:龙岗区周期&amp;楼市景气指数&amp;综合价格走势(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21242088607594936" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXT7xVguYl2ufn85RqdCRLOwZcoicu3LfMmFxNT1xjHpFwHzLwRJtBMyQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2528" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.21451229183187945" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxkTYmzqXp6IPQmJCq4y3DXB2Q5FBwx97EEMicOXo3NVJdjDu4qjsIdoa1rULG3DJxVlPiaKDpNWjdw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2522" style="" /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图26:盐田区周期&amp;楼市景气指数&amp;综合价格走势(图片截自禾略种子)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);max-width: 100%;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此,过热的4个区未来一年房价增幅可观,均超过10%,若能入手高赢率区域,则依然是很好的机会;对龙岗的高赔率区域,由于其未来一年涨幅太小,且赢率太低,不适合入手。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">当然,这次调控限购、加税、限离、豪宅线,将大批投资客和一些有能力的刚需挡在了购房资格之外。短期内,因需求大量减少,楼市会明显降温,表明了政府“房住不炒”的坚定决心;但长期来看,深圳用地紧张的局面并未改变,住房供应上不来,只是在楼市过热时一味打压需求,解决不了根本矛盾。</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"></span></strong></section><hr style="border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.098);border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0px 0px 0px;" /><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br />#2020,别把生命浪费在PPT上,去创造价值#</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="1.7914614121510672" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxduF4EXL7D9SiaPMBPBZwQCLge8RWKQ66fNnFCl05ibl88m1APGj82G9bOghszxO1R3iaiahRCKicn1hQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="609" width="275" height="493" style="height: 405px;width: 226px;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 14px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><br />——&nbsp; END&nbsp; ——<br style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">猜你想再看<br style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">城市:</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: 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href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=048088acd651254d77cc238d71b1af04&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a7c36e33460f244db68a856502151c73820b314470b7e24412b9a8b6dcd5b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">常德</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=b6295a149a38a026e886d81014b568f3&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a8d7adbd8721956fd91c59be8bd1ec35d4f9963a11e7e67bee72cd49405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">南宁</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=8&amp;sn=0efaff09c26e604d7aa5c29376c129ad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07abb37dd11a0cfe941868be2b543feebf288460418759254327292658947ae&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">桂林</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=12f08ffb076544edcbc24e91bc3d87d7&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a1cd4530a9033d462d4732c500dcdda723bdc3a87f4d55f1c62f657a4cb77&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">柳州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=6&amp;sn=0a89c4ab17039cec25754aa111b87308&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a6fdc14a1c0e877928f2fa46798a8b592b2b2023ad1c65081bbc80b2fafad&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">蚌埠</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=7&amp;sn=1bc72e377ffc3b621c2886d68c437515&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07adc8c50a3e1409197892c508ad9c27a6b52f8e4dde12740baf5674f5a7fa6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">合肥</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=10e3d481f7fd0ff46dafe2648cd3ddfb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a5118705d6b85487fa97dd013a2aee842be719ee13086aab8dee370b54185&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">南京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">上海临港</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">太原</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">温州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">昆明</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">嘉兴</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">热点:</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485505&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=90a4482d0ec14f8a4d441f77c653806c&amp;chksm=97557265a022fb7385559a6648c54242c721582b3811ad664360ea1e6f562f0f62264852c20c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" data-itemshowtype="0" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">深圳土拍</a></span><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a 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href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;outline: currentcolor none 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word;">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|<br style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">专业:</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">穿越熊市</a></span><span style="font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;<span style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a 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