港交所（0388.HK）二季报解读：南向交易撑起半边天，投资收入成意外之喜

<h4 data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">一、核心业绩速览：净利润超预期7%</span></span></h4><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">2025年二季度，港交所交出了一份"量价齐升"的成绩单：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">净利润</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：44.4亿港元（同比+41%），超摩根士丹利预期7%</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r7k:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">核心业务收入</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：交易费+39%，结算费+41%，符合预期</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r7m:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">意外亮点</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：净投资收入环比+16%（超预期7%）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r7o:"></span></p></section></li></ul><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><em><span leaf="">（投资收入和租赁收益调整成为超预期关键）</span></em></p><p><strong><span leaf="">关键数据</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">日均成交额（ADV）</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：2380亿港元（同比+95%）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r7q:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">南向交易占比</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：首次突破50%大关</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">股息政策</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：维持90%的高分红比例，对应股息率2.6%</span></section></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">二、业务结构：南向交易成最大引擎</span></span></h4><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><strong><span leaf="">市场交易呈现三大特征</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">南向爆发</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：日均成交154%同比增速，占港股总成交53%</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">衍生品遇冷</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：衍生品ADV下滑2%，股指期货持仓量减少</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r7s:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">新股低迷</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：IPO募资额同比下滑28%，但排队企业达142家</span></section></li></ol><p><strong><span leaf="">资金流向解析</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">内地资金</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：通过港股通累计净买入1.2万亿港元</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">国际资金</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：欧美机构减持中概股，转向A股市场</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">本地资金</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：高息环境下偏好REITs等高股息品种</span></section></li></ul><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><em><span leaf="">（南向交易已成港股流动性支柱）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">三、财务亮点：投资收入逆势增长</span></span></h4><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><strong><span leaf="">净投资收入超预期的三大原因</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">企业基金收益</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：内部管理的公司债投资回报超预期</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">保证金利息</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：清算所保证金规模环比+32%</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">汇兑收益</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：美元走强带来额外增益</span></section></li></ol><p><strong><span leaf="">成本控制</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">EBITDA利润率提升至79%（同比+6%）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r7u:"></span></p></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">有效税率15.5%，低于市场预期</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r80:"></span></p></section></li></ul><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><em><span leaf="">（投资收入占比回升至18%）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">四、机构观点：摩根士丹利维持"超配"</span></span></h4><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><strong><span leaf="">目标价逻辑</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">基础情景（65%概率）</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：35倍2026年PE（参照2021年水平）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r82:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">牛市情景（25%概率）</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：40倍PE（参照2020年IPO热潮期）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">目标价</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：500港元（现价433.8港元，潜在涨幅15%）</span></section></li></ul><p><strong><span leaf="">同业估值参考</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><table><thead><tr><th><section><span leaf="">指标</span></section></th><th><section><span leaf="">港交所</span></section></th><th><section><span leaf="">洲际交易所</span></section></th><th><section><span leaf="">伦交所</span></section></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><section><span leaf="">2025年PE</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">35x</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">28x</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">32x</span></section></td></tr><tr><td><section><span leaf="">股息率</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">2.6%</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">1.4%</span></section></td><td><section><span leaf="">1.8%</span></section></td></tr></tbody></table><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">五、未来催化剂：三季报关注点</span></span><span leaf=""><br /></span><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf="">短期观察指标</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">成交额持续性</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：7月ADV已升至2630亿港元</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">IPO重启进度</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：蚂蚁集团等大型项目可能重启</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">衍生品创新</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：MSCI中国指数期货合约表现</span></section></li></ol><p><strong><span leaf="">长期价值点</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">粤港澳大湾区跨境理财通扩容</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">人民币计价证券产品体系完善</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">与中东交易所互联互通进展</span></section></li></ul><p><span leaf=""><br /></span><em><span leaf="">（国际化与产品创新是长期增长关键）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><blockquote><p><strong><span leaf="">小编建议</span></strong><span leaf="">：港交所作为"离岸中国资产门户"，短期受益南向资金放量，长期看产品创新与国际化布局。投资者可关注：</span><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">① 每日成交额能否站稳2500亿港元</span><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">② 三季度潜在大型IPO进展</span><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">③ 美联储政策转向对港股流动性的影响</span></p></blockquote><p><span leaf="">数据来源：摩根士丹利《HKEX 2Q25 Review》2025年8月报告</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>