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港股龙头业绩超预期!港交所二季度净利猛增41%,南向资金成最大推手

发布于 2025-09-03

<blockquote style="margin: 6px 0px;padding: 6px 12px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-left: 4px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><span leaf="">香港交易所最新成绩单出炉,核心业务增长强劲,投资收入表现亮眼,摩根士丹利维持“超配”评级,目标价500港元!</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p></blockquote><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">2025年8月20日,摩根士丹利发布最新研究报告,对香港交易及结算所有限公司(港交所,0388.HK)的第二季度业绩进行了详细分析。数据显示,港交所在今年第二季度交出了一份令人惊喜的成绩单。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">业绩亮眼:净利超预期增长41%</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">港交所2025年第二季度净利润达到</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">44.4亿港元</span></strong><span leaf="">,同比增长41%,比摩根士丹利和市场共识预期分别高出7%和8%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">这一强劲表现主要得益于投资净收益的提升和租赁修改收益。即使剔除这些因素,港交所的核心业务也展现出了强劲的增长势头。</span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">核心业务:交易和结算费用双双大涨</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">在核心业务方面,港交所表现同样出色。交易费用和结算费用分别同比增长39%和41%,这主要得益于日均交易额(ADV)的强劲表现。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">第二季度,港交所的日均交易额保持在</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2380亿港元</span></strong><span leaf="">的高位,同比增长95%。这一数字虽然较第一季度小幅下降2%,但仍然维持在历史较高水平。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">更令人振奋的是,7月份的日均交易额进一步攀升至</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2630亿港元</span></strong><span leaf="">,显示出持续向好的趋势。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">南向资金:成为市场主要推动力</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">数据显示,南向交易已成为港交所交易量的主要推动力。第二季度南向日均交易额同比增长</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">154%</span></strong><span leaf="">,环比增长2%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">南向交易占总成交量的比例持续攀升,在第二季度已超过</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">50%</span></strong><span leaf="">。这一趋势表明,内地资金通过港股通渠道投资港股的意愿持续增强,为香港市场注入了强劲活力。</span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">投资收入:表现超出预期</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">港交所的第二季度投资净收入环比增长16%,同比增长31%,比摩根士丹利的预期高出7%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">这一优异表现主要来自内部管理的公司基金的投资收入增加,包括债务证券收入和汇兑收益。此外,根据估算,香港结算所的保证金规模环比增长32%,为保证金投资收入提供了支持,抵消了利率下降的负面影响。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">财务指标:盈利能力和效率提升</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">港交所在盈利能力方面也有显著提升。第二季度EBITDA利润率达到</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">79%</span></strong><span leaf="">,同比增长6个百分点,这主要得益于收入的强劲增长。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">同时,税率保持在15.5%的水平,略低于摩根士丹利的预期。良好的成本控制和运营效率提升,为港交所的盈利能力提供了坚实支撑。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">估值与展望:摩根士丹利维持乐观态度</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">基于港交所的强劲表现和良好前景,摩根士丹利维持对其的“超配”评级,目标价定为</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">500港元</span></strong><span leaf="">,较当前股价有约15%的上涨空间。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利采用概率加权估值方法,给出25%牛市概率(40倍2026年预期市盈率)、65%基准概率(35倍2026年预期市盈率)和10%熊市概率(32倍2026年预期市盈率)。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">分析师认为,港交所目前约35倍的2025年预期市盈率处于合理区间,结合健康的利润增长和约2.5%的股息收益率,以及**约90%**的股东友好型股息支付率,构成了良好的投资组合。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">未来机遇与挑战并存</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">尽管业绩表现强劲,但港交所仍面临一些潜在的风险和挑战。包括市场融资活动的突然回暖、IPO管道转化的加速、中国及全球流动性改善以及资本市场提振政策等上行风险。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">同时也需要关注影响日均交易量和速度的监管变化、IPO进程不及预期、政策收紧超预期、MSCI指数期货和期权产品收入贡献降低以及地缘政治不确定性等下行风险。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">投资启示:长期价值值得关注</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">港交所作为香港金融市场的重要基础设施,其业绩表现往往反映了整个港股市场的活跃程度和健康状态。第二季度的强劲数据不仅显示了港交所自身的运营实力,也折射出香港作为国际金融中心的持续吸引力。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">对于普通投资者而言,港交所股票不仅提供了分享香港金融市场增长的机会,还具有稳定的股息收益,是一个兼具成长性和收益性的投资选择。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">随着内地与香港市场互联互通机制的不断深化和完善,港交所有望继续受益于两地资本市场的融合发展趋势,长期投资价值值得关注。</span></p><hr style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-width: 0.5px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><p style="margin-top: 0px !important;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">本文基于摩根士丹利研究报告,数据截止2025年8月19日。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。</span></em></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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