游戏业务大爆发，目标价650港元！

<p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">大家好，今天带大家看看摩根士丹利最新发布的腾讯（0700.HK）二季度财报分析报告。这份报告发布于2025年8月13日，对腾讯的表现给出了详细解读。整体来看，腾讯交出了一份亮眼的成绩单，收入、利润全面超预期，尤其是游戏业务表现抢眼。摩根士丹利维持“增持”评级，目标价650港元，潜在涨幅约11%。下面，我来提炼报告的核心内容，让大家快速掌握关键点。</span></p><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none;" /><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">一、收入增长强劲，游戏业务成最大亮点</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">腾讯二季度总收入达到1790亿人民币，同比增长15%，比市场预期高出3%。最突出的是游戏业务：国内和海外游戏总收入同比增长22%，超出预期5%。具体看，国内游戏收入402亿人民币，海外游戏收入164亿人民币，均实现双位数增长。这得益于新游戏的持续推出和用户粘性的提升。广告业务也不甘示弱，增长20%至352亿人民币，超出预期2%。金融科技和企业服务（FBS）收入增长10%，整体表现稳健。报告强调，游戏的强劲势头是本季度的最大惊喜，为腾讯的长期增长注入了新动力。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">二、盈利能力创新高，毛利率历史最佳</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">腾讯的盈利能力同样惊艳。二季度毛利润983亿人民币，同比增长22%，比市场预期高出7%。毛利率达到56.9%，同比提升3.6个百分点，创下历史新高！这主要源于游戏和广告的高效运营带来的规模效应。调整后营业利润（非IFRS）增长19%，比预期高出4%-5%。净利润方面，调整后净利润624亿人民币，同比增长10%，远超市场预期。这些数字说明，腾讯不仅收入在增长，赚钱能力也在提升，运营效率持续优化。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100043278" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwno2zUibNDUIP0oQKmgibbPJYXdsWtY2t2QNeQL4ytfUzawWicHyXy5DO8XkweZhX36IvH1SJ7OO5ZUw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">三、回购力度加大，全年目标800亿+</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">腾讯在股东回报上也不手软。二季度回购金额达194亿港元（约合176亿人民币），比一季度的171亿港元进一步增加。全年回购目标锁定在800亿港元以上，显示出管理层对股价的信心。资本支出方面，二季度支出191亿人民币，低于一季度的275亿人民币，全年计划控制在总收入的低双位数百分比。这意味着，腾讯正在平衡增长与股东回报，为投资者提供稳定收益。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">四、投资建议：目标价650港元，潜在涨幅11%</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利维持腾讯“增持”评级，目标价650港元，基于分部估值法（核心业务DCF估值+投资业务折价）。当前股价586港元（截至8月13日），潜在上涨空间约11%。报告指出，腾讯的游戏和广告业务势头强劲，加上AI技术的应用潜力，有望持续推动增长。不过，风险也不容忽视：游戏行业监管不确定性、短视频竞争加剧，以及中美关系影响，都可能带来波动。但整体上，腾讯的“全明星表现”强化了其作为行业龙头的地位。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">五、风险提示：机遇与挑战并存</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">报告中提到了一些潜在风险。上行风险包括：新游戏国内外爆火、短视频广告市场份额提升、社交娱乐业务抗竞争能力强。下行风险则聚焦于监管（如游戏政策收紧）、竞争白热化（如新兴娱乐平台分流用户），以及地缘政治因素。投资者需保持关注，但这些短期波动不影响长期价值。</span></p><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none;" /><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">总结</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">腾讯二季度的“全面超预期”，再次证明了其业务的韧性和增长潜力。游戏业务的大爆发、盈利能力的创新高，加上积极的回购计划，为投资者提供了坚实保障。摩根士丹利的分析逻辑清晰：短期业绩强化了长期主题，目标价650港元值得期待。对普通投资者来说，腾讯仍是值得关注的“首选股”。想了解更多细节？欢迎在评论区留言讨论！</span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>