爱碰撞 | 更贵的北京，更“好”的将来

<section class="" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1</strong></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class=""></span></strong></p><p></p><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">想过贵</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">没想过这么贵</strong></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">昨天拍了两块地,其中樊家村改造的地贵的令人乍舌,一块容积率2.3,总建面20万平米,其中只有33%是商品住宅的南四环边上的土地,地价贵到楼面价7万3,未来预计售价10万也就勉强赚钱.目前周边是08年左右的小区万年花城,小区的二手房不过4万5,地价居然到了周边住宅成交价的162%。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">之前想过商品住宅地稀缺，这块地会被争抢，只是没想到价格抢到这么贵，按照这个价格逻辑，开发商应该拿着钱去买别的开发商已经盖好的楼，估计都不一定花得了这个价钱。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">拍完之后，各种媒体沸腾，朋友圈都被刷屏，大家有算这个价能买到什么豪宅的，有和过去更好好好的地段地价比较的，估计也有看完琢磨着买房的。我想因为这块地确实贵，贵到了超过我们大家想象的贵。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></span></p><p></p><section class="" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2</strong></section></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class=""></span></strong></p><p></p><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">消费者和资本的分歧越来越大了</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">实体经济不乐观超过想象</strong></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">其实今年房子比起来，没涨的那么贵，新房大概涨了10%-20%，二手房可能还没有涨到这个幅度。而且今年上半年的情况是，越贵的房子涨的越多，卖的还不错，反而是解决自住需求的无论新房还是二手房，现场都感到涨价的压力。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这实际体现的是消费端和资本端的分歧，消费端真的感受到没钱和实际的压力，资本端却有另外的苦恼，收益率陡降，万科3.5%的收益率债券都卖得出去，股市里系统性风险难把握，你是资本，你干什么呢？</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">资本选择的答案是一线城市投资土地，年初深圳涨、然后上海涨，上海涨完北京涨，就这么几个地方，大量的钱流入，不是房价涨就是地价涨，最大可能还是一起涨，现在看地价比房价涨的快，资本收益率降低也认了，降低标准也认了。预计很快的趋势是二线核心城市地价也开始涨，武汉、南京、成都、天津等等。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">哪里来的这么多钱？看来实体经济真不乐观，没有扩产能需求，完全吸纳不了投资，似乎信贷还在继续宽松，大家能拿到的钱也越来越便宜，地产公司买地买房，保险公司买地买房，人人买东西，迎接可能到来的通胀看来是个大概率事件。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></span></p><p></p><section class="" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3</strong></section></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class=""></span></strong></p><p></p><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">土地政策推波助澜</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">愚蠢的出让制度该结束了</strong></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">说回北京吧，北京地域辽阔，是上海2倍，深圳8倍大，地价涨起来远超另外两个一线城市，自身愚蠢的土地出让制度还是有很大的贡献的。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京700万户，每年出让的商品住宅用地全盖成小户型不足5万套，大家换次房子理论上讲需要140年，两辈子。这还不计过去几年北京每年增加的七八十万人口也需要地方避风遮雨，先天的供地不足就是地价涨到天上的根本基因。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">为啥供地那么少？两件蠢事，一件全国都在干，政府爱税收，所以爱产业爱办公爱商场，不太爱住宅（不知道以后有了房产税会不会好一些），政府不能开公司，不会开商场（尤其是不会办这些盈利能力高，特别能交税的企业），所以政府想了个主意，就是盖大楼，盖各种各样的大楼，批各种各样的产业用地。我们批评大学里不注意培养大师，只考虑盖大楼，地方政府实际上也一样，没法培养企业，只能盖大楼，好像盖了好大楼，好企业就自己产生了一样。反正最后好企业不知道有没有，每个地方都有一大堆的产业办公用地。加上中国伟大的十八亿亩红线制度，产业地和住宅地实际是个此消彼长的关系，所以这些年住宅地慢慢就供的少了。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第二个蠢事是北京独有的，就是各种保障房制度，保障房也挤占了原本商品住宅的土地，却又不是卖给原有商品住宅的客户，自然又加剧了商品住宅的供需矛盾。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></span></p><p></p><section class="" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4</strong></section></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class=""></span></strong></p><p></p><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">博傻游戏开始</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">没有最傻,只有更傻</strong></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我们统计了过去几年北京出让的这些明显价格高于周边的项目都干嘛，发现其中80%的解决方案是放着，等待市场涨起来。预计本次土地出让后，几乎之前所有在西南方向买高价地的开发商都在账面上解套了。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">但实际解套了吗？到消费端一下子就面临做什么的问题，如此高的地价，开发商扎堆做高端，单套价格都在2000万以上，估计全北京的高端人士要一套一套的的不停买才能消化得了，现在北京总住宅库存1000万平米出头，和几年前库存1000万平米出头最大的不同就是高端库存激增，开发商与其盖成高端住宅放着，还不如就把地放在那里，慢慢报规划，至少还保留了想象的空间，以及少投入建安的现金流。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">但这是个博傻游戏的开始，钱越多，不算账的傻子就越多，后面的傻子多了，前面的傻子就不傻了，至少也是个傻子领袖，没准未来北京市场上这些曾经的高价地，就在资本层面一遍一遍的转手，最后人人账面盈利，这块地永远流转。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">现在这个逻辑在北京其实最大的挑战是人口，总体人口的老龄化使中国劳动人口将面临一个断崖式下落，这些也是买房的主力人群。同时北京未来还面临严厉的限制人口增长，还首都一个蓝天的神奇政策。一旦外来人口过少，之前击鼓传花的博傻游戏可能就面临玩不下去的窘境，这轮高价地可能也是迎接挑战最大的一届高价地，祝他们好运。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></span></p><p></p><section class="" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</strong></section></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class=""></span></strong></p><p></p><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">卖掉北京吧</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">换的钱都够建设一个崭新的首都了</strong></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">要是就论地价，北京地价之贵，高地价覆盖范围之广，预计在全球首都也能独占鳌头。当年说卖掉东京能换美国，现在这个故事的主角换成了北京。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">土地制度里一个卖家是核心，北京和东京的差别在这里，一手的垄断土地出让，可以让北京高地价维持比东京更长久的时间，毕竟你想买地，手里只有北京政府这样一个一手渠道，市场上都是他现在的或是他以前的，增加供应变成了不可能的事，这也是资本认定北京土地可买的基本逻辑。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">给点建议吧，长期的，要是开征了房产税，还是把土地闸口放开吧，协议出让寻租空间大还是因为土地都在政府手里，改革了土地的机制，协议出让不就是正常的商业合同么？好多土地供应方，高地价时会促进供给，不像现在，市场彻底失灵。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">户籍制度放开吧，或者长期看把它和教育医疗社保等福利脱钩吧，买房子在中国承载太多了，感觉只有买了房子，你才是共和国的合伙人，没买房子，基本上就是共和国的奶牛。解决房子以外的事情，是解决房子问题的关键。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">规划灵活些吧，别迷信产业经济学，让市场自己调整用途吧，估计能得到一个更有活力的城市。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">短期咋办？政府好好当个奸商吧，既然现在地价这么贵，赶紧把手里的地都卖了，千万别干之前的蠢事，地王一出，土地立刻暂停供应，不知道是调控呢还是为地王托市呢。真出了50块地，估计开发商也会冷静的，钱多PK地多，我坚信北京地多。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">更贵的北京，不代表更好的未来，地价信号折射经济太多问题，最好正视问题，真正解决问题，别遮遮掩掩的干砸了信号灯的事了。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong>文章来源：微信公众号newway</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG4VJIPksIW3N35iaN22eIkQXrb9YToQxuKOHx1J9LQpgwlxalVianKfGyNwces2EI4mD5Vy8oRiatOuQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.666003976143141" data-w="" /><br /></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><fieldset class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="color: inherit; 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font-family: inherit; border-bottom-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); word-wrap: break-word !important; border-left-width: 1.4em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; border-right-width: 1.4em !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important;"></section></section></fieldset><fieldset class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="margin: 0.8em 0px 0.5em; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-width: 0px; text-align: center; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; color: rgb(129, 120, 119); border: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0.3em 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; border-top-left-radius: 0.5em; border-top-right-radius: 0.5em; border-bottom-right-radius: 0.5em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.5em; box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-align: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160); border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">禾略中国：helue_China</p></span></fieldset><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; color: rgb(129, 120, 119); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; text-align: center; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; color: rgb(129, 120, 119); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 10px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></p><hr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; color: rgb(129, 120, 119); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; text-align: center; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; color: rgb(129, 120, 119); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 10px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">陪你想，陪你写，陪你玩</span></p><p><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 10px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p></fieldset></fieldset><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><img title="HL.jpg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG6l3Ayok2VDEG1DEiaowh4h7ZNm2cjNogk769tjEMRZJKRgeJ5kWrsUR8Eicfn1AkzQPOjicicrgKUvPw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="1.1053677932405566" data-w="" /></p><p><br /></p>