<h1 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="5oKHxUqU59" style="" data-dir-key="5oKHxUqU59" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" mpa-font-style="mfaizgo3zoh" style="font-size: 20px;" data-mpa-action-id="mfaizgp92ue" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">ä¸ãæ¥åæ ¸å¿ä¸»é¢</span></span></span></span></span></h1><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å©ç¨</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ç³»ç»å¨åå¦æ¨¡å</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å®éè¯å«çå¸å¯å¨çå ³é®èç¹ï¼ä»âä»·å¼åå½â主导转åâè¶å¿è¿½éâ主导ç</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ£åé¦åæ¢ç¹</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ï¼å¹¶åºäºæ¤æ¨¡å对å½åï¼æªè³2025å¹´8æåºï¼Aè¡å¸åºç¶æè¿è¡ç å¤ï¼æä¾åç»è¡ä¸é 置建议ã</span></span></span></span></p><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="xaNUf2ldAA" style="" data-dir-key="xaNUf2ldAA"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" mpa-font-style="mfaizlt11bug" style="font-size: 20px;" data-mpa-action-id="mfaizltqodh" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">äºãç论æ¡æ¶ï¼å¸åºæ¯å¤æåé¦ç³»ç»</span></span></span></span></span></h2><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¸åºçå®è§è¡ä¸ºæºäºå ¶å é¨</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">åé¦ç¯è·¯</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">çç»æå强度ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">两ç§æ ¸å¿åé¦æºå¶ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">è´åé¦ (Negative Feedback)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ä»·å¼åå½</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">é»è¾ãå½ä»·æ ¼ï¼Pï¼å离å å¨ä»·å¼ï¼Vï¼æ¶ï¼Pé«ä¼°åååºï¼Pä½ä¼°åä¹°å ¥ï¼ï¼å¸åºå ·æèªæä¿®æ£å稳å®å¾åã主导çæ«çåã</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ£åé¦ (Positive Feedback)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: **è¶å¿è¿½éï¼å¨éæåºï¼**é»è¾ãä»·æ ¼ä¸æ¶¨å¸å¼æ´å¤ä¹°å ¥ï¼å½¢æâä¸æ¶¨å¯¼è´æ´å¤ä¸æ¶¨âçèªæ强å循ç¯ãæ¯å¸åºæ³¡æ²«åçå¸ä¸»å浪ï¼å éä¸æ¶¨ï¼çæ ¸å¿æ¨æã</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">çå¸çæ¬è´¨</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ä¸»å¯¼åéä»</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">è´åé¦</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ£åé¦</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">çåæ¢ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="MWi2PYoi5d" style="" data-dir-key="MWi2PYoi5d"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">模å设计ï¼éåè¯å«åæ¢ç¹</span></span></span></span></h2><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¸åºæ¶ççå解模å (æ ¸å¿æ¹ç¨)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¸åºæ¶çç </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">R_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> ç±è´åé¦é¨ååæ£åé¦é¨åå æææã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">R_t = -K_negative · (P_t - V_t) · (1 - α_t) + K_positive · (P_t - P_{t-1}) · α_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">K_negative</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: è´åé¦å¼ºåº¦åæ°ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">K_positive</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: æ£åé¦å¼ºåº¦åæ°ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">P_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: å½åä»·æ ¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">V_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: å å¨ä»·å¼ï¼</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">代çåéï¼100æ¥ç§»å¨å¹³å线</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">P_t - V_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: ä»·æ ¼ä¸ä»·å¼åå·®ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">P_t - P_{t-1}</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: åæä»·æ ¼ååï¼å¨éï¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ ¸å¿åé</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼å¨ææ¼åç**âæ£åé¦æ¯ä¾â**ï¼åå¼èå´[0,1]ï¼ï¼ä»£è¡¨å¸åºç±è¶å¿è¿½éé»è¾ä¸»å¯¼çæ¯ä¾ã </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t â 0</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: å¸åºç±ä»·å¼åå½ï¼è´åé¦ï¼ä¸»å¯¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t â 1</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: å¸åºç±è¶å¿è¿½éï¼æ£åé¦ï¼ä¸»å¯¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t = 0.5</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">模åå®ä¹çâåæ¢ç¹/临çç¹â</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼è´ãæ£åé¦åéåè¡¡ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> çå¨ææ¼åæ¹ç¨ (Logistic模å)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">dα_t/dt = a · α_t · (1 - α_t) · (Profit_Effect_t - c · Price_Deviation_t)</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> èªèº«çå¢é¿åæ©æ£éçåæ°ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Profit_Effect_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">驱å¨å - èµé±æåº</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ä»£çåéï¼è¿å»20天ä¸æ¶¨å¤©æ°æ¯ä¾ï¼ãä¸æ¶¨å¸å¼è¶å¿è¡ä¸ºã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Price_Deviation_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æå¶å - ä»·æ ¼å离度ï¼é«ä¼°é£é©ï¼</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ä»£çåéï¼</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(P_t - V_t)/V_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ãå离è¶å¤§ï¼âæé«âæ 绪æå¶æ£åé¦è延ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">c</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: ä»·æ ¼å离æéåæ°ï¼å¸åºå¯¹ä¼°å¼æ³¡æ²«çææ度ï¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="QKAfXCLNaA" style="" data-dir-key="QKAfXCLNaA"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" mpa-font-style="mfaj0qt91nud" style="font-size: 20px;" data-mpa-action-id="mfaj0qu2q5g" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">ä¸ãåå²éªè¯ï¼ä¸è½®çå¸å¤çä¸æ¨¡ååæ°æå</span></span></span></span></span></h2><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">éåæ ·æ¬çå¸</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼2006-2007å¹´ã2014-2015å¹´ã2019-2021å¹´ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ¹æ³</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ä½¿ç¨L-BFGS-Bç®æ³æå模ååæ° (</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">K_negative</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">, </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">K_positive</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">, </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">, </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">c</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">, åå§ </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">)ï¼æå°å模åé¢æµä¸å®é ä¸è¯ææ°æ¶çççåæ¹è¯¯å·®ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å ³é®åç°</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">è½ç¶é©±å¨å ç´ ä¸åï¼ä½ä¸è½®çå¸ç</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å ³é®åæ°å¨æ°é级ä¸å ·æä¸è´æ§</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼è¯æäºæ¨¡åç</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ®éæ§</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">模åæåè¯å«åºä¸åå²ç»éªç¸ç¬¦ç</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主å浪起ç¹ï¼åæ¢ç¹ï¼</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2006å¹´9æ19æ¥ (</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> çªç ´0.5)</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2014å¹´11æ4æ¥ (</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> çªç ´0.506)</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2020å¹´7æ1æ¥ (</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> çªç ´0.5)</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å ±åç¹å¾</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> çªç ´0.5临çç¹åè¿ éæåã</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ä¼´éä»·æ ¼å éä¸æ¶¨ãå¸åºæ³¢å¨ï¼æ¶ççæ¹å·®ï¼åè¶å¿æ§ï¼æ¶ççèªç¸å ³ç³»æ°ï¼æ¾èå¢å¼ºã</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="z-xTw5ufK-" style="" data-dir-key="z-xTw5ufK-"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" mpa-font-style="mfaj35kc5kj" style="font-size: 20px;" data-mpa-action-id="mfaj35l4745" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">åãå½åå¸åºç å¤ï¼å·²è¿å ¥æ£åé¦é¶æ®µ</span></span></span></span></span></h2><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ ¸å¿é®é¢</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼å¤æå½åå¸åºï¼2023/11/1 - 2025/8/28ï¼æå¤çé¶æ®µï¼æ¯å¦å·²çªç ´ä¸´çç¹ï¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ¹æ³</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼éç¨âåç»æ§æ¨¡æâï¼é¿å æåå½åæªå®æè¿ç¨äº§çåå·®ï¼ã使ç¨åä¸è½®çå¸ç</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¹³ååæ°ä½ä¸ºâæ åçå¸å¯å¨æ¨¡æ¿â</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼è¾å ¥å½åå¸åºæ°æ®ï¼æ¨¡æ </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> çå¨ææ¼åã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å ³é®ç»æ</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ä¸è¯ææ°äº2025å¹´6æå¼å§æ¾èå离100æ¥å线ï¼çæå¨éï¼æ£åé¦ï¼æåºè¾å¼ºã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025å¹´8æ21æ¥ï¼</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> å¼è¾¾å° 0.512ï¼æåçªç ´ 0.5 ç临çç¹</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¸åºæ³¢å¨çï¼æ¶ççæ¹å·®ï¼åè¶å¿æ§ï¼æ¶ççèªç¸å ³ç³»æ°ï¼ç¸æ¯åæä½ç¹ååºç°æ¬å迹象ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section data-mpa-action-id="mfaj3gtltbo" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" mpa-font-style="mfaj3gsukjw" style="font-size: 20px;">äºãç»è®º</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" mpa-font-style="mfaj3gsu1mf5" style="font-size: 20px;">ï¼ </span></span></span></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å½åï¼æªè³2025å¹´8æ21æ¥ï¼</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¸åºå·²ç»è¿å ¥æ£åé¦é¶æ®µ</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¸åºçèµé±æåºç´¯ç§¯æåºå¼ºäºä¼°å¼å¼åç约æï¼çå¸æ 绪大æ¦çå¾å°ç¡®è®¤</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">çªç ´ä¸´çç¹åï¼æªæ¥å¸åº</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æå¯è½åºç°æç»æ§ãèå´æ´å¹¿çä¸æ¶¨è¡æ </span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ä¸»å浪ç¹å¾ï¼ï¼</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">èµé±æåºå°æ¾å¤§</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="xSlvzCHFpe" style="" data-dir-key="xSlvzCHFpe"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">åç»è¡ä¸é 置建议ï¼å¼ºè æ强 + éé¶è·è¸ª</span></span></span></span></h2><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¤çä¸è½®çå¸ </span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span><span><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">α_t</span></span><span style="font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf=""> </span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""> > 0.5 åçè¡ä¸è¡¨ç°ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(2006.09) éèï¼é¶è¡/éé¶ï¼å¨åæ¢ç¹ååæç»é¢æ¶¨å¹¶æ为主线ã</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(2014.11) åæé¢æ¶¨ç建çè£ é¥°/é¢é延ç»å¼ºå¿ï¼éé¶éèå¼åçªèµ·å¼é¢è¡æ ã</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(2020.07) åæé¢æ¶¨ç社æç»å¼ºï¼éåçµå设å¤ï¼æ°è½æºï¼ã汽车ï¼æ°è½è½¦ï¼å´èµ·æ为âæ ¸å¿èµäº§â主线ã</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ ¸å¿è§å¾ - "强è æ强"</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼å¨è´åé¦æ«æï¼åæ¢ç¹åï¼å·²è¡¨ç°å¼ºå¿çè¡ä¸ï¼å¨ç¡®è®¤è¿å ¥æ£åé¦åï¼é常</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æç»æ¾èè·èµ¢å¸åº</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ã </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">åå </span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="i."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">èªæèµéæåå¸å±æªæ¥ä¸»çº¿ï¼å¨ç¹è±«æé¢æ¶¨ï¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="ii."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">å¸åºå½¢æå ±è¯å¹¶åèäºè¿äºé¢æ¶¨è¡ä¸ã</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="iii."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">è¶å¿èµéï¼æ£æ·ãè¶å¿åºéï¼æ¶å ¥è¿½éå·²è¯æé»è¾æ¸ æ°çä¸æ¶¨æ¿åã</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">åææ»æ¶¨æ¿åå 缺ä¹â示èæåºâåâåäºé»è¾âï¼é¾ä»¥å¸å¼æ°å¢èµéï¼ç»§ç»è·è¾ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">éé¶éèçè§å¾æ§è¡¨ç°</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼åå²æ¾ç¤ºï¼æ£åé¦å¯å¨å</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">éé¶éèï¼å¸åãä¿é©ï¼æ¿åçååè¾å¼º</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼å¯ææ¡æ 绪å转æºä¼ã</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">æ¶é´ç»´åº¦çç¥</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">åæï¼ä¿¡å·ç¡®è®¤ï¼ï¼å ³æ³¨éé¶éèççååã</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1-3个æï¼å ³æ³¨å¹¶éªè¯æ¬è½®çå¸çâæ¶ä»£ä¸»çº¿âï¼éæ¥å°ä»ä½ä»åæé«Betaæ¿ååæ¢è³ä¸»çº¿Alphaã</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3-6个æå以ä¸ï¼âå稳主线é¾å¤´âï¼äº«åæ´ç»´æ¯åå»ï¼é¿å è¿æ©ç¦»åºé失主å浪åæè¡æ ã</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025å¹´8ææ å¢ä¸ç建议</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ï¼åºäº2025.08.21åè³08.29ç表ç°ï¼ï¼ </span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span 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